General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Laika]

If the O's can scrape by with shitballers (circa 2021-22), so can Toronto. The state of the franchise is quite poor right now. In such case job #1 is to restock the farm. I don't frigging care, I actually welcome, if the Jays are ALE bottom dwellers in 2025. Potential to get #1 pick with the draft. Start the upswing in 2026.

 

The Brewers have been rolling out some real dirtbags lately

 

Joe Ross, Colin Rea etc.

 

And it works!

[mphenhef]

any good japanese/korean players coming available this off-season?

 

oh yes, Roki Sasaki most likely. A very elite pitcher who is also young.

 

Munetaka Murakami is a big time slugger (3B) but sadly he might not come until after the 2025 season.

[mphenhef]

I think the only way we can get back into a top-level team is with some top notch Asian and maybe Cuban players. We're not going to get anything further out of the minors and too many players on the decline like Springer, Bo and Vladdy.

 

Bo and Vlad are not on age-based declines. Some different voices (or sadly more likely different uniforms) will likely unlock them.

[Terminator]

I think the only way we can get back into a top-level team is with some top notch Asian and maybe Cuban players. We're not going to get anything further out of the minors and too many players on the decline like Springer, Bo and Vladdy.

 

Why just Asian and Cuban players? lol

[Omar]

Berrios is a physical specimen. He will age like fine wine. Keep him and Kikuchi as well. Even during the retool period we need arms. Both those guys will likely stay healthy. Gausman and Bassitt are who I would move and that right quick.

[Laika]

It is interesting

 

There are arguments for keeping Gausman or Berrios, or even extending Kikuchi

 

Mr. Atkins could trade Goose and extend Kooch

Or trade Goose and Kooch and hold Berrios

Or trade Berrios but keep Goose since he has more upside

 

They could trade Bassitt to dump the $$$ but will more likely keep him because he has no trade value and innings will be needed

 

Lots of possibilities

 

And they will do the dumbest combination of things no f***ing doubt

[MikeM3]

Bo and KK to the dodgers for a hall of close prospects. Would losing those two really impact how this season is going based on how they have done so far? If this could happen then the extension of Vlad likely has to happen.

 

They won't trade for Bo. They'll trade for someone who is good with the glove and will listen to their algorithm coaching

[The_DH]

Why just Asian and Cuban players? lol

 

Cause we need some younger infusion at a reasonable price. Not senior citizens.

[wilko]

Why just Asian and Cuban players? lol

 

He's racist.

[glory]

I think the "innings eater" stuff still appeals to certain teams. Probably the Cards, Rockies, Nats. And the player option might make these teams wrongly think he'll opt out. He won't because he sucks and by 2026 will be a gas can if he loses even a tick of velo.

 

We will almost assuredly get nothing back but he has very nice dead weight anchor potential that I would be eager to be rid of

 

Berrios contract:

 

2027-28 salaries may increase up to $5M each season:

$1M each for 300, 350 combined innings pitched in 2025-26

$500,000 each for 375, 400 combined IP in 2025-26

$2M each for Cy Young award in 2025 or 2026

$1.5M each for second-fifth place in 2025 or ’26 Cy Young vote

$750,000 each for sixth-10th place in 2025 or ’26 Cy Young vote

 

There's a good chance those player options will be for more than $24m per. I doubt any team expects him to opt out, including the Jays if they were being honest with themselves. If you just want to dump the contract, then maybe there's a team desperate enough to do it, but I don't see it. The contract is not team friendly at all aside from a reasonable AAV in 2025-26. Stroman is a similar valued pitcher (~3 WAR innings eater) and when he hit the market at age 32, he got 2/37. Berrios would have to be a Cy Young contender in 2026 for him to opt out. Maybe he will surprise and be one, but not a risk I'd take if I were a team trading for him. He'd likely provide more value to the Jays than he would in a trade at this point, but depends on what the team's goals are.

 

Ultimately, I expect Kikuchi traded and no one else. Only exception would be if they replace Atkins and the new GM is given free autonomy to do what he wants. Then maybe it's more realistic to see other SPs moved.

[MikeM3]

Berrios contract:

 

2027-28 salaries may increase up to $5M each season:

$1M each for 300, 350 combined innings pitched in 2025-26

$500,000 each for 375, 400 combined IP in 2025-26

$2M each for Cy Young award in 2025 or 2026

$1.5M each for second-fifth place in 2025 or ’26 Cy Young vote

$750,000 each for sixth-10th place in 2025 or ’26 Cy Young vote

 

There's a good chance those player options will be for more than $24m per. I doubt any team expects him to opt out, including the Jays if they were being honest with themselves. If you just want to dump the contract, then maybe there's a team desperate enough to do it, but I don't see it. The contract is not team friendly at all aside from a reasonable AAV in 2025-26. Stroman is a similar valued pitcher (~3 WAR innings eater) and when he hit the market at age 32, he got 2/37. Berrios would have to be a Cy Young contender in 2026 for him to opt out. Maybe he will surprise and be one, but not a risk I'd take if I were a team trading for him. He'd likely provide more value to the Jays than he would in a trade at this point, but depends on what the team's goals are.

 

Ultimately, I expect Kikuchi traded and no one else. Only exception would be if they replace Atkins and the new GM is given free autonomy to do what he wants. Then maybe it's more realistic to see other SPs moved.

 

Ah that's disgusting actually.

[Terminator]

How do those opt outs affect Berrios' AAV for tax purposes?

 

18.71M AAV for him is not that bad. Even if he's having a down year it won't kill us. If he's having a good year it's surplus. 24M is a lot worse.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I dunno if I'd blow up the rotation.

 

I'd certainly be looking to move Vlad and Bo for hopefully a decent return of prospects. Then move forward with the Buffalo Boys and try to land some decent free agents.

[Terminator]

I dunno if I'd blow up the rotation.

 

I'd certainly be looking to move Vlad and Bo for hopefully a decent return of prospects. Then move forward with the Buffalo Boys and try to land some decent free agents.

 

I am with you except for trading Vlad and Bo. You guys are going to kill me but I would try and extend them in the offseason.

 

Trade all pending FAs and try to land guys that can contribute next year (like the Liriano for Teoscar deal).

 

We will have about 58-65M coming off the books depending on who we non-tender and not a lot of arb guys will eat into that too much.

 

If the Buffalo Boys and Yariel are as legit as their projections say there are, we would only need to sign a bat, a SP and some relievers. The playoffs will be easy to make.

 

This is if we are selling, and I'm not convinced that we are just yet.

[Laika]

The go for it in 2025 roster

 

C - Kirk

1B - Vlad

3B - IKF (SS/2B)

SS - Bo

2B - Horwitz (1B)

LF - Schneider (2B)

CF - Varsho

RF - Springer (CF???)

DH - Orelvis?

 

BN - backup C, Clement (SS/3B/2B), Barger (LF/RF/3B), Lukes (OF)

 

SP: Goose, Bassitt, Berrios, Y Rod, Tiedemann, Macko, Francis

 

RP: Romano, Green, Pearson, Richards, Mayza, Swanson, Cabrera, Pop, Little, Danner, Burr, Eisert, Juenger, Cooke, Pardinho

 

 

 

 

I feel like if they want to run it back they need:

 

- multiple good relievers

- an SP2 and SP5

- a big bat

- another OF option. need to insure the Springer position better and/or get a true backup CF that isn't 30 year old Nathan Lukes

 

Honestly very similar to what was needed this offseason, which they did not pull off.

 

If they don't tick all those boxes they are kidding themselves.

 

And two big bats would be better lol.

[Eat My Shatkins]

If they try running it back again and strike out in free agency this place will eat itself alive lmao

[Carlos Danger]

The go for it in 2025 roster

 

C - Kirk

1B - Vlad

3B - IKF (SS/2B)

SS - Bo

2B - Horwitz (1B)

LF - Schneider (2B)

CF - Varsho

RF - Springer (CF???)

DH - Orelvis?

 

Go for what? An October PRO/AM Golf tournament?

[Omar]

Ah that's disgusting actually.

 

How is a performance based incentive disgusting?

[Laika]

Go for what? An October PRO/AM Golf tournament?

 

The #1 pick???

[L54]

Please go for it in 2025 with the same roster + Robbie Grossman

[MikeM3]

How is a performance based incentive disgusting?

 

Its innings not performance

[Carlos Danger]

The #1 pick???

 

I'm ok with that actually. Just don't want Atkins makeing that pick.

[Laika]

Please go for it in 2025 with the same roster + Robbie Grossman

 

Tommy Pham should be even cheaper next year!!!

 

Maybe Charlie Morton will keep pitching and come to Toronto

 

who are the oldest pending free agents? Scherzer, Votto, Turner, Morton, Robertson, Ottavino, Jesse Chavez. Cutch says he wants to play next year.

[Omar]

Its innings not performance

 

027-28 salaries may increase up to $5M each season:

$1M each for 300, 350 combined innings pitched in 2025-26

$500,000 each for 375, 400 combined IP in 2025-26

$2M each for Cy Young award in 2025 or 2026

$1.5M each for second-fifth place in 2025 or ’26 Cy Young vote

$750,000 each for sixth-10th place in 2025 or ’26 Cy Young vote

 

Half is performance based. The rest in terms of innings pitched, well we should be so lucky. In the bigger scheme of total payroll, it's a pittance. Not disgusting at all.

[L54]

Tommy Pham should be even cheaper next year!!!

 

Maybe Charlie Morton will keep pitching and come to Toronto

 

who are the oldest pending free agents? Scherzer, Votto, Turner, Morton, Robertson, Ottavino, Jesse Chavez. Cutch says he wants to play next year.

 

Atkins will be all over those old f***ers

[saskjayfan]

Fire Atkins!

[Olerud363]

The go for it in 2025 roster

 

C - Kirk

1B - Vlad

3B - IKF (SS/2B)

SS - Bo

2B - Horwitz (1B)

LF - Schneider (2B)

CF - Varsho

RF - Springer (CF???)

DH - Orelvis?

 

Projected numbers

 

Kirk .200 .290 .250

Vlad .289 16 77 rbis

Horwitz .289 16 77 (Horwitz and Vlad are no power bros)

Bo .399 6 29 (he will get off to a hot start then of course get season ending injury May 2nd)

Schneider - .244 .355 .450 OK not so bad

Varsh - .195 29 77 4 WAR with sub .200 average

Springer - .188 7 39 (no injury they finally have to sit him)

IKF - .245 .290 .330 (he's IKF)

Orelvis - .199 49 99 4 WAR (Varsho and Orelvis are in a very tight race for most WAR with sub .200 average)

 

This might actually lead to 733 runs which is maybe OK if offensive trends continue.

[Olerud363]

Projected numbers

 

Kirk .200 .290 .250

Vlad .289 16 77 rbis

Horwitz .289 16 77 (Horwitz and Vlad are no power bros)

Bo .399 6 29 (he will get off to a hot start then of course get season ending injury May 2nd)

Schneider - .244 .355 .450 OK not so bad

Varsh - .195 29 77 4 WAR with sub .200 average

Springer - .188 7 39 (no injury they finally have to sit him)

IKF - .245 .290 .330 (he's IKF)

Orelvis - .199 49 99 4 WAR (Varsho and Orelvis are in a very tight race for most WAR with sub .200 average)

 

This might actually lead to 733 runs which is maybe OK if offensive trends continue.

 

Barger enters platoon with Springer, and gets time other places and hits .280 .380 .550 with 38 homeruns 104 mph throws from right field 3b, and 80 mph or whatever bat speed. Jays win World Series. Barger hero to the people.

[jaysblue]

Fire Atkins!

 

Can't say that around here haha.

[jaysblue]

Projected numbers

 

Kirk .200 .290 .250

Vlad .289 16 77 rbis

Horwitz .289 16 77 (Horwitz and Vlad are no power bros)

Bo .399 6 29 (he will get off to a hot start then of course get season ending injury May 2nd)

Schneider - .244 .355 .450 OK not so bad

Varsh - .195 29 77 4 WAR with sub .200 average

Springer - .188 7 39 (no injury they finally have to sit him)

IKF - .245 .290 .330 (he's IKF)

Orelvis - .199 49 99 4 WAR (Varsho and Orelvis are in a very tight race for most WAR with sub .200 average)

 

This might actually lead to 733 runs which is maybe OK if offensive trends continue.

 

It's not okay lol.

 

They need two big bats ideally added to this lineup.