General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Stangstag]

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/video/daulton-varsho-homers-7-on-a-fly-ball-to-right-field?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share

 

Also Varsho’s homer in Detroit to complete the comeback, though they did end up losing.

[L54]

f***, what did we do spending money on that f***ing guy.

 

Uh receipts??

[Spanky99]

Uh receipts??

 

My point idiot.

[G-Snarls]

Yariel threw 43 pitches for the Bisons today and completed 3 innings with 0 hits 0 runs 4 Ks and 1 walk

 

But can he hit?

[L54]

My point idiot.

 

I don’t think anybody said that

[Brownie19]

Uh receipts??

 

You want receipts of people who thoughts Atkins wasted money on FA's this offseason? oh boy, you may want to get checked for early onset dementia

[AMS528]

You want receipts of people who thoughts Atkins wasted money on FA's this offseason? oh boy, you may want to get checked for early onset dementia

 

It's hard to trawl through 440 pages of the general discussion thread to find that stuff I imagine. Perfect for ensuring the hottest takes fade away.

 

First page of the IKF signing is people just disliking the deal though.

 

https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/11355-Jays-sign-IKF-2-15-LOL-F-U-Wacko!

 

More positivity for Turner.

 

https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/11376-Morosi-Jays-sign-Justin-Turner-to-1-year-deal/page5?highlight=turner

[BTS]

It's hard to trawl through 440 pages of the general discussion thread to find that stuff I imagine. Perfect for ensuring the hottest takes fade away.

 

First page of the IKF signing is people just disliking the deal though.

 

https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/11355-Jays-sign-IKF-2-15-LOL-F-U-Wacko!

 

More positivity for Turner.

 

https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/11376-Morosi-Jays-sign-Justin-Turner-to-1-year-deal/page5?highlight=turner

 

Yeah. I'm up to page 4 of the IKF thread and don't see a single irrational post.

[L54]

You want receipts of people who thoughts Atkins wasted money on FA's this offseason? oh boy, you may want to get checked for early onset dementia

 

Yariel Rodriguez my guy

[L54]

IKF signing looks okay actually. It doesn’t really get judged fairly because of how disappointing the offseason was but he’s been good. He’s the kind of player you appreciate a lot more when you watch him everyday

[AMS528]

IKF signing looks okay actually. It doesn’t really get judged fairly because of how disappointing the offseason was but he’s been good. He’s the kind of player you appreciate a lot more when you watch him everyday

 

He's a player you appreciate more when the rest of your roster is playing well cause he's complementary piece that has a steady floor cause of his defense. When the team is winning, he's adding to it, when the team is losing he gets lumped in (unfairly in his case with his play) with the rest as a reason for why the team isn't good.

[glory]

IKF signing looks okay actually. It doesn’t really get judged fairly because of how disappointing the offseason was but he’s been good. He’s the kind of player you appreciate a lot more when you watch him everyday

 

IKF on the 2015 Jays or 2021-22 Jays would have been much better. He’s a good utility piece on a team that doesn’t need offense. He’s just a bad fit for this team due to their offensive issues.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I blame the IKF signing for Vladdy only having 1.2 fWAR through a third of the season and it's also his fault that Kirk, Springer and Bo only have 70-80 wRC+

 

They all figured IKF was here to save the franchise and felt like they didn't need to hit anymore.

[AMS528]

I blame the IKF signing for Vladdy only having 1.2 fWAR through a third of the season and it's also his fault that Kirk, Springer and Bo only have 70-80 wRC+

 

They all figured IKF was here to save the franchise and felt like they didn't need to hit anymore.

 

It's definitely not his fault, but it isn't unreasonable for the front office to have the foresight to realize that Springer has been declining for three seasons in a row. His drop is actually relatively smaller than it was last year when he also dropped off, and he just turned 34 which is an age where very few hitters do much at all.

 

Kirk didn't hit last year either though his dropoff is worse and I don't think you could have predicted that, but at least Danny is around to pick up the pieces. Vlad has been fine power aside. Bo is the biggest impact disappointment without a doubt.

 

I think overall the front office was a bit unlucky with performances, but I think they should have seen the Springer dropoff coming. The back half of this contract was always going to be an issue, and the decline had already started last year. They needed an outfielder who could hit, and went back to KK instead.

[L54]

I blame the IKF signing for Vladdy only having 1.2 fWAR through a third of the season and it's also his fault that Kirk, Springer and Bo only have 70-80 wRC+

 

They all figured IKF was here to save the franchise and felt like they didn't need to hit anymore.

 

You’re literally just the inverse of everything you hate

[L54]

He's a player you appreciate more when the rest of your roster is playing well cause he's complementary piece that has a steady floor cause of his defense. When the team is winning, he's adding to it, when the team is losing he gets lumped in (unfairly in his case with his play) with the rest as a reason for why the team isn't good.

 

IKF on the 2015 Jays or 2021-22 Jays would have been much better. He’s a good utility piece on a team that doesn’t need offense. He’s just a bad fit for this team due to their offensive issues.

 

He’s the high quality utility man that good teams add as the cherry on top to good rosters. Saying he would’ve been great on the 2015 team is bang on

[max silver]

I blame the IKF signing for Vladdy only having 1.2 fWAR through a third of the season and it's also his fault that Kirk, Springer and Bo only have 70-80 wRC+

 

They all figured IKF was here to save the franchise and felt like they didn't need to hit anymore.

 

Bo has been shockingly bad since he came off of the injured list last season. Over his last 87 games/374 PA he's produced an 85 wRC+ and 0.5 FWAR. He's been a lot better over the last 3-4 weeks but he's yet to hit a peak Bo Bichette kind of hot streak.

[connorp]

Bo has been shockingly bad since he came off of the injured list last season. Over his last 87 games/374 PA he's produced an 85 wRC+ and 0.5 FWAR. He's been a lot better over the last 3-4 weeks but he's yet to hit a peak Bo Bichette kind of hot streak.

 

Ive never seen you quote a bad sample size. Maybe you’re starting to polish off the pitchfork in the closet just in case.

[Brownie19]

Yariel Rodriguez my guy

 

There certainly are people who have opined that the Jays shouldn't have spent FA money on Yariel. I don't care enough to go find you receipts, but they exist (and I know this because I don't have early onset dementia - at least I don't think I do - I forget).

[Brownie19]

He’s the high quality utility man that good teams add as the cherry on top to good rosters. Saying he would’ve been great on the 2015 team is bang on

 

I'd agree with that, but it's not like this 2024 team was a horrible team on paper that shouldn't have been adding those "cherry on top" pieces like IKF, Green and Turner. We were projected to be a playoff team (50-66% chance of making the playoffs). The team isn't failing because of the FA signings.

[L54]

There certainly are people who have opined that the Jays shouldn't have spent FA money on Yariel. I don't care enough to go find you receipts, but they exist (and I know this because I don't have early onset dementia - at least I don't think I do - I forget).

 

I hope Spanky provides the receipts

[L54]

I'd agree with that, but it's not like this 2024 team was a horrible team on paper that shouldn't have been adding those "cherry on top" pieces like IKF, Green and Turner. We were projected to be a playoff team (50-66% chance of making the playoffs). The team isn't failing because of the FA signings.

 

They weren’t horrible on paper but it always felt like a square peg round hole type of signing. And they had like three other square pegs too

[Laika]

IKF is just the last thing to even complain about from the offseason. I don't even understand why his name keeps coming up. He is a 29 year old with good bat control, surprisingly decent maxEV, elite 3B defense and positive baserunning. So easy to justify the signing unless you are a Yankees fan.

 

 

The worst decision was probably KK. $10M to an injury prone 34 year old with mediocre-at-best plate discipline, when the roster already had an elite CF.

[Terminator]

If the ball is in fact dead this year, I think Turner may have been impacted the most out of anyone. He's got 4 balls off the very upper part of the fence. Close enough to where another 1% in distance (or even less) and they are gone.

 

If you click on his statcast page, you kind of wonder how they didn't go out based on where they are on the map:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/justin-turner-457759?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

[Laika]

If the ball is in fact dead this year, I think Turner may have been impacted the most out of anyone. He's got 4 balls off the very upper part of the fence. Close enough to where another 1% in distance (or even less) and they are gone.

 

If you click on his statcast page, you kind of wonder how they didn't go out based on where they are on the map:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/justin-turner-457759?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

pain

[AMS528]

IKF is just the last thing to even complain about from the offseason. I don't even understand why his name keeps coming up. He is a 29 year old with good bat control, surprisingly decent maxEV, elite 3B defense and positive baserunning. So easy to justify the signing unless you are a Yankees fan.

 

 

The worst decision was probably KK. $10M to an injury prone 34 year old with mediocre-at-best plate discipline, when the roster already had an elite CF.

 

Absolutely. That never made sense, it would waste Varsho's potential value, and it saddled us with two outfielders who aren't hitting with Springer as well. And I mentioned it above, but Springer already had one major decline and it the front office really should have considered the possibility that he was going to decline again given that he was going to be 34 this year and how harsh the age curve can be.

 

Springer probably isn't quite as bad as his numbers currently, but the old Springer is not coming back either.

[Brownie19]

Absolutely. That never made sense, it would waste Varsho's potential value, and it saddled us with two outfielders who aren't hitting with Springer as well. And I mentioned it above, but Springer already had one major decline and it the front office really should have considered the possibility that he was going to decline again given that he was going to be 34 this year and how harsh the age curve can be.

 

Springer probably isn't quite as bad as his numbers currently, but the old Springer is not coming back either.

 

I'm sure they did man. It's all probabilities. The current outcome is probably a 15th percentile result, which just really sucks. I doubt any of the data they have suggested there was a high probability that he'd completely fall off the cliff. There was also a probability he bounced back and was a 115-125 wRC+ bat this year. That probability was likely just as high as the probability he'd be a 80 wRC+ hitter.

[Terminator]

KK was so damn good last year. 2.8 fWAR and 3.9 bWAR. His batting line was a lot of fluff though. Seems like they got a best case scenario last year and paid a bit of a premium for it this year and now they are on the lower end of his outcomes.

 

And even with bringing him back, we really need another OF. One that can at least share time with KK but ideally a full-time player with a good stick. Then lock in IKF at 3B and Schneider at 2B (great stick for a 2B). That would make the lineup look a lot better without sacrificing too much defense.

[Olerud363]

If the ball is in fact dead this year, I think Turner may have been impacted the most out of anyone. He's got 4 balls off the very upper part of the fence. Close enough to where another 1% in distance (or even less) and they are gone.

 

If you click on his statcast page, you kind of wonder how they didn't go out based on where they are on the map:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/justin-turner-457759?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

I haven't been keeping track of EVs as much lately as I've been busy with work and honestly not following as closely as other years because of the mediocre boring team.

 

However I used to check the EV box scores every night for anything odd. Curious if other people have caught weird things.

 

The weirdest one I've seen this year is a Vlad fly ball out in Kansas City that was like 109 mph 31 degrees. That should go 440 but it went 390. Not sure if it was a EV misreading, bad spin, or a weird dead ball (like maybe in a batch some are deader than others).

 

Anybody else notice any other weird ones? How do Judge and Soto dominate? Their EVs are similar to Vlad's. Just such a weird thing that Vlad can't keep up with them (or even with Schneider and Varsho at least in terms of homers).

[Olerud363]

KK was so damn good last year. 2.8 fWAR and 3.9 bWAR. His batting line was a lot of fluff though. Seems like they got a best case scenario last year and paid a bit of a premium for it this year and now they are on the lower end of his outcomes.

 

And even with bringing him back, we really need another OF. One that can at least share time with KK but ideally a full-time player with a good stick. Then lock in IKF at 3B and Schneider at 2B (great stick for a 2B). That would make the lineup look a lot better without sacrificing too much defense.

 

I also wonder if the oppo approach just doesn't work with dead balls. Bo/Vlad/Teoscar regularly hit no doubt bombs the other way in 2021, now all the oppos like fall on the track.