General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[jaysblue]

IKF had multiple suitors in the offseason which drove up his eventual signing price. He's also on pace for a 3 win season at the moment. If he keeps it up he'll be a relative bargain all things considered so there should be little issue moving him in trade.

 

I doubt he did, but what do I know. Do you have any links showing he had multiple suitors?

 

Regardless, the IKF deal is looking solid thus far, so will give Atkins props. Most of his value is tied to his defense. Offensively, he's been holding his head above water, but we'll see if he could maintain a 100 wRC+ the entire season.

 

I had no issue with the IKF signing at the time. I said as long as that money didn't tie into the Jays from spending in other areas such as adding some thump to the lineup and if IKF wasn't used on an everyday basis. Thought of him as more of a super utility guy who can maybe start 4-5 times per week. Ideally, the Jays should have added some thump in the OF and DH, with IKF at 3B, instead of going after all defensive-minded players this offseason. Some balance would have helped.

[Olerud363]

I'll do this because I know Jays24 can't do math.

 

Here is the W/L record and winning % for the best 4 year stretches the team has had since 1993

 

2020-2024 304 W 242 L 0.557%

2014-2017 341 W 307 L 0.526%

2005-2008 336 W 312 L 0.518%

1990-1993 368 W 280 L 0.568%

 

So - unequivocally, this recent stretch by the Jays is THE BEST 4 year run since 1990-1993. Did the team win in the playoffs? No they did not, but whether you like it or not, winning in the playoffs is almost a coin flip (which I know is a VERY difficult concept for lots of fans and people on this board) and the Jays were favored to win 2 of our 3 playoff series during that stretch. However, it is pretty clear this regime has been successful since they arrived in 2016. Is that success coming to an end? Yes, I think it probably is and we'll now go into a downturn until around 2030. This is a very typical cycle for MLB teams. It's the reality of being a fan of most MLB teams.

 

Longest Jays have gone without winning seson

 

94, 95, 96, 97

2001, 2002

2004, 2005

2009

2012, 2013

2017, 2018, 2019

 

Now a downturn until 2030? That would be the longest downturn in franchise history. We have more playoff spots now. I think in every year except 1996, 2002, 2010 and 2018, 2019 Jays would have been gunning for a wild card spot. It didn't always work out and sometimes went into an insane disaster.

 

Going until 2030 without like the 85 win team of a bit of hope would be the worst stretch in franchise history.

[Olerud363]

Longest Jays have gone without winning seson

 

94, 95, 96, 97

2001, 2002

2004, 2005

2009

2012, 2013

2017, 2018, 2019

 

Now a downturn until 2030? That would be the longest downturn in franchise history. We have more playoff spots now. I think in every year except 1996, 2002, 2010 and 2018, 2019 Jays would have been gunning for a wild card spot. It didn't always work out and sometimes went into an insane disaster.

 

Going until 2030 without like the 85 win team of a bit of hope would be the worst stretch in franchise history.

 

And this is why the fans are really pissed. There is little hope.

 

Gone from one of the greatest batches of prospects I've ever seen as a fan to the darkest most hopeless stretch in franchise history potentially starting.

 

In 2021 Jays were where the Orioles are now... 100 win young talent with unlimited potential and it collapsed to nothing. A generation lost.

 

Vlad, Bichette, Kirk, Moreno, Martin, Groshans, Orelvis, Pearson, Manoah, healthy Romano, Biggio not yet fully collapsed, Woods Richardson

 

Keep in mind Moreno was hitting .380 with massive power and a minor thumb injury (or so we thought at the time), Groshans and Martin were hitting getting on base at a .400 clip and the power would come (we thought)

 

Orelvis was destroying A-ball as a teenager .290 .350 .600, unlimited power, and had not yet become "Mr. Popup". Vlad was Albert Pujols, Bo was Cory Seager. Kirk was Edgar Martinez at Catcher, Moreno was Pudge Rodriquez. Unlimited potential. Unlimited Joy as a baseball fan.

 

It collapsed to nothing. All to nothing.

 

We were the Orioles on July 25th 2021, unlimited potential, unlimited joy ahead. A generational cycle. A once in a lifetime batch of prospects.

 

And now it is collapsed to 70 wins a year 1.5 million attendance while the Orioles get the generational team.

[Olerud363]

I've followed since 1988. There was always joy. Always a reason to watch. The darkest seasons had bits of hope.

 

There was always a Delgado and Green, or Wells and Rios, or Vlad and Bichette. There was always a reason to smile.

 

Now there is nothing and no chance of anything until 2030.

 

Things can change. Just like negative surprises can happen, positive ones can too.

 

However from A-ball to the Majors this is the most joyless, hopeless piece of crap version of the Toronto Blue Jays I've ever seen.

[MikeM3]

I'll do this because I know Jays24 can't do math.

 

Here is the W/L record and winning % for the best 4 year stretches the team has had since 1993

 

2020-2024 304 W 242 L 0.557%

2014-2017 341 W 307 L 0.526%

2005-2008 336 W 312 L 0.518%

1990-1993 368 W 280 L 0.568%

 

So - unequivocally, this recent stretch by the Jays is THE BEST 4 year run since 1990-1993. Did the team win in the playoffs? No they did not, but whether you like it or not, winning in the playoffs is almost a coin flip (which I know is a VERY difficult concept for lots of fans and people on this board) and the Jays were favored to win 2 of our 3 playoff series during that stretch. However, it is pretty clear this regime has been successful since they arrived in 2016. Is that success coming to an end? Yes, I think it probably is and we'll now go into a downturn until around 2030. This is a very typical cycle for MLB teams. It's the reality of being a fan of most MLB teams.

 

Tied to payroll

[leaffie]

I hate being negative and as stated, there was always something to be excited about. I saw the first game and just about every one in between.

Even when the team stunk, there was always hope. Hope of improvement, hope for the farm team , hope they would finally make the playoffs. And while there were disappointments, I was always a Jays fan and there was always something to keep me watching, or attending.

 

This team was built by a group that did exactly the same thing in Cleveland, fixed the park and lost the fanbase because they did not know how to build a winner. The worst part of this year is there is no hope.

 

Olerud is correct, this is the most dismal team the Jays have ever fielded.

[Laika]

I've followed since 1988. There was always joy. Always a reason to watch. The darkest seasons had bits of hope.

 

There was always a Delgado and Green, or Wells and Rios, or Vlad and Bichette. There was always a reason to smile.

 

Now there is nothing and no chance of anything until 2030.

 

Things can change. Just like negative surprises can happen, positive ones can too.

 

However from A-ball to the Majors this is the most joyless, hopeless piece of crap version of the Toronto Blue Jays I've ever seen.

 

The gap between expectations and the product is just so massive

[The Cats Ass]

I've followed since 1988. There was always joy. Always a reason to watch. The darkest seasons had bits of hope.

 

There was always a Delgado and Green, or Wells and Rios, or Vlad and Bichette. There was always a reason to smile.

 

Now there is nothing and no chance of anything until 2030.

 

Things can change. Just like negative surprises can happen, positive ones can too.

 

However from A-ball to the Majors this is the most joyless, hopeless piece of crap version of the Toronto Blue Jays I've ever seen.

 

Maybe you should leave and wait until 2030 to come back to the board then?

[Brownie19]

Longest Jays have gone without winning seson

 

94, 95, 96, 97

2001, 2002

2004, 2005

2009

2012, 2013

2017, 2018, 2019

 

Now a downturn until 2030? That would be the longest downturn in franchise history. We have more playoff spots now. I think in every year except 1996, 2002, 2010 and 2018, 2019 Jays would have been gunning for a wild card spot. It didn't always work out and sometimes went into an insane disaster.

 

Going until 2030 without like the 85 win team of a bit of hope would be the worst stretch in franchise history.

 

Sorry - I should have been more clear that I don't think we'll be a playoff team until 2030. We could certainly be back to some winning records before then.

[Brownie19]

Tied to payroll

 

Yes - 3 of the 4 runs were generally tied to payroll.

 

2020-2024 (19th, 11th, 10th, 6th)

2014-2017 (10th, 10th, 10th, 5th)

2005-2008 (25th, 16th, 16th, 13th)

1990-1993 (13th, 9th, 3rd, 1st)

 

I don't think the Jays spending more money during their contention window is overly surprising.

[BigCecil]

IKF had multiple suitors in the offseason which drove up his eventual signing price. He's also on pace for a 3 win season at the moment. If he keeps it up he'll be a relative bargain all things considered so there should be little issue moving him in trade.

 

IKF is a glove. Few teams if any are buying the 104 wRC+ BABIP bat. In '23 he was worth 0.6 WAR and the median cost/WAR was $4.4M this past off season. On a 2/15 he is worth very little. I''ll take the under on 1.2 WAR for the whole season for IKF.

[BigCecil]

I'm going to start banning people for posts like this. Every time I log in it's the same 3-4 people bashing the same 2-3 people for not being 100% negative.

 

Thats fair. Also, there is an abundance of 2 way call out bashing on this board BTS. Posters/fans should be able to be glass half full or empty as they see it, but the call out and insults are over the top both ways. Just my view.

[max silver]

Salary

Dump

 

This shouldn't come as a surprise that you don't understand what a salary dump is. That's when a team sends out an overpaid underproducing player in trade with remaining dead money on the contract, often needing to either pay down remaining salary or include prospect value in addition to the overpaid player in order to remove him from the roster. Kiner Falefa is producing value commensurate with his salary and won't need to be dumped. He's paid relative peanuts relative to MLB salaries as well, and the team might actually want to keep him for 2025 depending on what direction they decide to take (retool vs rebuild).

[BTS]

Thats fair. Also, there is an abundance of 2 way call out bashing on this board BTS. Posters/fans should be able to be glass half full or empty as they see it, but the call out and insults are over the top both ways. Just my view.

 

I don't see it the same way. I see a bunch of "glass half empty" posters who don't really take any abuse. Because the team is bad and glass half empty is a pretty obvious read of the situation. And then 2-3 dorks who have been making the same tired jokes since April at the expense of people who seem to have upset them by being optimistic about the Jays on a Jays fan message board.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I don't see it the same way. I see a bunch of "glass half empty" posters who don't really take any abuse. Because the team is bad and glass half empty is a pretty obvious read of the situation. And then 2-3 dorks who have been making the same tired jokes since April at the expense of people who seem to have upset them by being optimistic about the Jays on a Jays fan message board.

 

Correct.

 

And those 2 or 3 dorks are also always sarcastically asigning a viewpoint to the optimistic leaning posters that they never really had.

 

Like for instance, my belief that other than Ohtani or Soto there were no ways to really fix the offense last off season (none of the other options were anything more than lip stick on a pig) doesn't mean I believe Atkins isn't ultimately at fault or should be given a "free pass".

 

But the morons just latched onto that notion and keep going with it.

[max silver]

I doubt he did, but what do I know. Do you have any links showing he had multiple suitors?

 

Regardless, the IKF deal is looking solid thus far, so will give Atkins props. Most of his value is tied to his defense. Offensively, he's been holding his head above water, but we'll see if he could maintain a 100 wRC+ the entire season.

 

I had no issue with the IKF signing at the time. I said as long as that money didn't tie into the Jays from spending in other areas such as adding some thump to the lineup and if IKF wasn't used on an everyday basis. Thought of him as more of a super utility guy who can maybe start 4-5 times per week. Ideally, the Jays should have added some thump in the OF and DH, with IKF at 3B, instead of going after all defensive-minded players this offseason. Some balance would have helped.

 

 

IKF specifically stated he was surprised how much interest he drummed up in free agency. There's just no way he would have been signed for the type of money he received if there wasn't actually a bit of competition for his services. He signed well before the free agency freeze kicked in where the remainder of the free agency market was essentially frozen out and forced to accept bargain basement deals nearing spring training just to get jobs.

 

I share a similar sentiment in that I had no issue with IKF as more of a utility player. Even now I'm fine with him playing every day as he's been a pleasant surprise up to this point. I do question the wisdom of how the team spent their offseason budget, and wonder what their preferred spending even would have looked like. I assume Green is someone they always intended to sign given the various available permutations of his contract, it was just a matter of choosing how long to sign him for. If they managed to snag Soto in trade would the available budget been increased to account for his addition? He would have taken up $30 million plus all on his own. I think the team was seriously interested in signing the likes of Chapman and Bellinger, and these guys would have eaten up over half of the available budget on their own as well. Perhaps Rodriguez wouldn't have been signed in this case, or the budget could have been stretched a bit further if a more expensive free agent was added.

 

At any rate it's apparent that it was a disaster offseason. It's too bad Boras refused to move on his salary demands until well after the Jays had essentially moved on to other options to fill the roster. The offense would look a lot better with a Bellinger, JDM etc. on the roster compared to the likes of Kiermaier and Turner.

[L54]

I don't see it the same way. I see a bunch of "glass half empty" posters who don't really take any abuse. Because the team is bad and glass half empty is a pretty obvious read of the situation. And then 2-3 dorks who have been making the same tired jokes since April at the expense of people who seem to have upset them by being optimistic about the Jays on a Jays fan message board.

 

People can use the ignore function can’t they?

[BigCecil]

I don't see it the same way. I see a bunch of "glass half empty" posters who don't really take any abuse. Because the team is bad and glass half empty is a pretty obvious read of the situation. And then 2-3 dorks who have been making the same tired jokes since April at the expense of people who seem to have upset them by being optimistic about the Jays on a Jays fan message board.

 

Really? I've seen people who weren't as optimistic as others referred to "inbreds" and other choice very derogatory terms. Hey, your the moderator and I'm sure the pay ain't great, so call it as you see it.

 

IMO FWIW if people want to be optimistic or pessimistic, or both at different times, they should be entitled to be so. The insults have gone both ways, and in any case there is an IL function for anyone who chooses to use it.

[Terminator]

IKF is a glove. Few teams if any are buying the 104 wRC+ BABIP bat. In '23 he was worth 0.6 WAR and the median cost/WAR was $4.4M this past off season. On a 2/15 he is worth very little. I''ll take the under on 1.2 WAR for the whole season for IKF.

 

He's already got 1.1 WAR a third of the way through the season. You think he's replacement value the remainder of the year?

[Terminator]

Really? I've seen people who weren't as optimistic as others referred to "inbreds" and other choice very derogatory terms. Hey, your the moderator and I'm sure the pay ain't great, so call it as you see it.

 

IMO FWIW if people want to be optimistic or pessimistic, or both at different times, they should be entitled to be so. The insults have gone both ways, and in any case there is an IL function for anyone who chooses to use it.

 

lmao

[BigCecil]

He's already got 1.1 WAR a third of the way through the season. You think he's replacement value the remainder of the year?

 

Very possible. His career high is 1.6 WAR. Last year he was worth 0.6.

 

TBH, he has really impressed me much more than I thought he would so far, and I've enjoyed watching him play D a lot. He has brought his K rate down from 19% to 14 since last year. Good bat to ball skill.

[connorp]

He's already got 1.1 WAR a third of the way through the season. You think he's replacement value the remainder of the year?

 

He’s got more D value than he did in either of his last 2 full seasons. He’s 29, he didn’t all the sudden start getting to balls he wasn’t before. His offense is also likely to sink to the mean.

 

Listen, I didn’t mind John McDonald. Teams need people off all types as everyone can’t be an AS. There’s just cases where there’s a fit and when there’s not. You’re seeing everyone’s validated fear that he wasn’t what we needed. We shouldn’t have been thinking about “finishing pieces”. There was work to do

[Brownie19]

Really? I've seen people who weren't as optimistic as others referred to "inbreds" and other choice very derogatory terms. Hey, your the moderator and I'm sure the pay ain't great, so call it as you see it.

 

IMO FWIW if people want to be optimistic or pessimistic, or both at different times, they should be entitled to be so. The insults have gone both ways, and in any case there is an IL function for anyone who chooses to use it.

 

I use it often now and it's quite enjoyable. What is hilarious is I've been called out twice or spreading sunshine across this board after wins v. the White Sox.....something that never happened. It's bizarre.

[Terminator]

Very possible. His career high is 1.6 WAR. Last year he was worth 0.6.

 

TBH, he has really impressed me much more than I thought he would so far, and I've enjoyed watching him play D a lot. He has brought his K rate down from 19% to 14 since last year. Good bat to ball skill.

 

The 1.1 WAR he has accumulated is already in the bank. It could go down, but only if he plays worse than a replacement level player. Steamer600 thinks he's a 2.2 WAR player. So I'm not sure what you are seeing to suggest that he'll be replacement level or worse from here on out.

 

But hey if you want to bet on the under I'll happily take the over.

[BigCecil]

The 1.1 WAR he has accumulated is already in the bank. It could go down, but only if he plays worse than a replacement level player. Steamer600 thinks he's a 2.2 WAR player. So I'm not sure what you are seeing to suggest that he'll be replacement level or worse from here on out.

 

But hey if you want to bet on the under I'll happily take the over.

 

I'll take the under on 2.2 sure. Let us clear the odds with big Dick first. Heaven forbid I don't want to be accused of bullying you again lol. What I'm seeing is his 2600 PAs career 82 wRC+ and there are lots of variables. If he is a 2.2 WAR player that was worth $9.7M AAV last off season market, so will be bully for fortuitous Ross.

[Terminator]

He’s got more D value than he did in either of his last 2 full seasons. He’s 29, he didn’t all the sudden start getting to balls he wasn’t before. His offense is also likely to sink to the mean.

 

Yeah because he's playing 3B where his defensive skills combine with the positional adjustment to juice his overall defensive value. 2B is another good position for him.

 

In 2023 he was inexplicably playing mostly in the OF so all his defensive value vanished. In 2022 and 2021 he had some solid defensive value, but he played SS which which strains his skills. He also used to be a C which is a whole different animal.

 

Keep him at 3B, which for some reason he has never done full-time in his career, and he'll accumulate WAR at a steady clip.

 

Listen, I didn’t mind John McDonald. Teams need people off all types as everyone can’t be an AS. There’s just cases where there’s a fit and when there’s not. You’re seeing everyone’s validated fear that he wasn’t what we needed. We shouldn’t have been thinking about “finishing pieces”. There was work to do

 

I actually think he is exactly what we needed. He's tracking to be a 2-3 WAR 3B/2B for a team that had a glaring whole at 3B. But nobody trusted him fully, including Atkins, so they added Turner as the DH, partly because he could play some 3B in case IKF couldn't produce. If they would have just penciled IKF in as the starting 3B, it would have let them get a DH who could play some LF which is what we really need.

[Spanky99]

I use it often now and it's quite enjoyable. What is hilarious is I've been called out twice or spreading sunshine across this board after wins v. the White Sox.....something that never happened. It's bizarre.

 

And the person that called you out couldn't provide any quotes, par for the course.

[Terminator]

I'll take the under on 2.2 sure. Let us clear the odds with big Dick first. Heaven forbid I don't want to be accused of bullying you again lol. What I'm seeing is his 2600 PAs career 82 wRC+ and there are lots of variables. If he is a 2.2 WAR player that was worth $9.7M AAV last off season market, so will bully for Ross.

 

2.2? Lol I don't think so pal

 

You started this by saying that you would take the under on 1.2 for the year:

IKF is a glove. Few teams if any are buying the 104 wRC+ BABIP bat. In '23 he was worth 0.6 WAR and the median cost/WAR was $4.4M this past off season. On a 2/15 he is worth very little. I''ll take the under on 1.2 WAR for the whole season for IKF.

 

I'll take the over on that, but if you want to squirm your way out of it I wouldn't blame you.

[connorp]

Yeah because he's playing 3B where his defensive skills combine with the positional adjustment to juice his overall defensive value. 2B is another good position for him.

 

In 2023 he was inexplicably playing mostly in the OF so all his defensive value vanished. In 2022 and 2021 he had some solid defensive value, but he played SS which which strains his skills. He also used to be a C which is a whole different animal.

 

Keep him at 3B, which for some reason he has never done full-time in his career, and he'll accumulate WAR at a steady clip.

 

 

 

I actually think he is exactly what we needed. He's tracking to be a 2-3 WAR 3B/2B for a team that had a glaring whole at 3B. But nobody trusted him fully, including Atkins, so they added Turner as the DH, partly because he could play some 3B in case IKF couldn't produce. If they would have just penciled IKF in as the starting 3B, it would have let them get a DH who could play some LF which is what we really need.

 

This is like having a business deep in the red and going down and then pimping your hires

[Terminator]

This is like having a business deep in the red and going down and then pimping your hires

 

Haha I hear ya but I wasn't talking about the rest of the team which is a dumpster fire with very little going right.

 

But the convo turned to IKF specifically and I think he's a solid player and and one of the few things that is actually working.