General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[MikeM3]

Jays are 30th in barrel rate.

 

One of the only major league teams that hates barrels.

 

If Davis Schneider didn't exist they would have basically no hitters that chase barrels. Jansen does so thank God he's back. I guess Varsho does too he just hasn't been good at it most of the time.

 

DS and Varsho are the only ones who sell out to pull and actually do damage.

 

Bo's approach is just disgustingly awful. He's like f***ing Tim Anderson

[Laika]

At least most of the Buffalo guys seem to be real baseball players. Dudes who understand that yanking dingers is cool.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I said in the MiLB thread, I am chomping at the bit to see Horwitz, Barger and Orelvis at the MLB level. The three of them are really hammering AAA pitching right now.

[HomeRunHomer]

Bo's start. 0 WAR. 6th percentile range @ SS. For some reason his sprint speed is way up in '24.

 

He will get the bat going but signing him long term paying any premium for him as a SS makes no sense to me.

 

I hope I'm wrong but I think someone gave him some bad advice and he sacrificed some upper body strength for some mobility.

[max silver]

Don't think anyone is saying Varsho isn't a great defender. I'll still take the under on him being a 4.5 Win player as well as putting up 30 OAA let alone 36. Its a long season and you can't just extrapolate his defensive numbers that he's put up so far. There's luck in even getting the chances to make certain defensive plays.

 

Kiermaier is one of the best defensive CF ever and the most OAA he ever put up was 18.

 

I actually see that Varsho's 2022 season has been downgraded a bit from 4.8 FWAR to 4.4 FWAR. I missed that Fangraphs completely switched over to utilizing Statcast numbers for all of their defensive value calculations in early April. I still think he has a great shot to match or eclipse that total as it's easy to see that he's taken a big step forward in the field, even when factoring in the early opportunities he's seen to make great plays.

[Stangstag]

Jays are 30th in barrel rate.

 

One of the only major league teams that hates barrels.

 

If Davis Schneider didn't exist they would have basically no hitters that chase barrels. Jansen does so thank God he's back. I guess Varsho does too he just hasn't been good at it most of the time.

 

You’d think this points to a flaw in organizational hitting philosophy or at least a flaw in the current coaching staff…

[43211234]

Dante and Vlad Sr. have probably been in their ears their whole lives, telling them that they should hit for average and get some ribeyes.

 

Those poor nepo babies never had a chance in this world of swing decisions and barrels.

[WryNGinger]

Toronto is very much an advanced enough market that they would understand trading high end talent off their roster for a mixture of NOW pieces and prospects. We saw Crime dog and Fernandez dealt for Alomar and Carter and yah there was some bitching but it played out fine.

 

I think the market almost expects a big trade to compensate for inefficiencies on the roster and to revitalize the prospect pool.

 

Time to figure out who they need to cut bait on and give a couple of AAA guys a shot at producing.

[Eat My Shatkins]

This org has so much depth but the superstars aren't superstarring, they are supersucking.

 

Varsho at 1.0 fWAR already

IKF at 0.5

Turner at 0.5

Clement at 0.5

Biggio at 0.5

 

I mean as far as the new additions and depth pieces go, you couldn't draw up a better start.

 

But then there is your $20 million 1B "core" piece with 0.1 fWAR and your $11.2 million starting SS with 0.0 fWAR

 

Hopefully they get their s*** together. We need them

[BTS]

This org has so much depth but the superstars aren't superstarring, they are supersucking.

 

Varsho at 1.0 fWAR already

IKF at 0.5

Turner at 0.5

Clement at 0.5

Biggio at 0.5

 

I mean as far as the new additions and depth pieces go, you couldn't draw up a better start.

 

But then there is your $20 million 1B "core" piece with 0.1 fWAR and your $11.2 million starting SS with 0.0 fWAR

 

Hopefully they get their s*** together. We need them

 

It's the same problem as last year. The franchise cornerstone who's suppsoed to be a monster middle of the order bat is a singles hitter. This year compounded by the fact that Bichette apparently forgot how to play baseball. Embarrassing performance so far from the two stars.

 

The FO needs to throw Rogers' money around this offseason and land a bankable star bat.

[Eat My Shatkins]

It's the same problem as last year. The franchise cornerstone who's suppsoed to be a monster middle of the order bat is a singles hitter. This year compounded by the fact that Bichette apparently forgot how to play baseball. Embarrassing performance so far from the two stars.

 

The FO needs to throw Rogers' money around this offseason and land a bankable star bat.

 

As we all know the front office tried to do that this last off season, Ohtani already with 1.5 fWAR

 

They also were in talks to get Soto, already 1.6 fWAR

 

Hopefully they have more luck next off season luring a big bat or two to Toronto. It's such a shame to waste this incredible pitching staff and amazing depth waiting for Vlad (and now possibly Bo) to do what they're supposed to do.

Edited April 22, 2024 by Eat My Shatkins

[BigCecil]

Pulled HRs on Fastballs (4S 2S, cutter, sinker) since 2023 start

 

8 - Davis Schneider in 187 PAs

 

5- Vlad in 778 PAs

 

3 - Ernie Clement in 96 PAs

[Laika]

Pulled HRs on Fastballs (4S 2S, cutter, sinker) since 2023 start

 

8 - Davis Schneider in 187 PAs

 

5- Vlad in 778 PAs

 

3 - Ernie Clement in 96 PAs

 

I could cry

[The_DH]

If the team trades away Springer, Vlad and Bo as we start to be just a .500 team, doesn't it seem possible that the team would actually improve?

[Eat My Shatkins]

If the team trades away Springer, Vlad and Bo as we start to be just a .500 team, doesn't it seem possible that the team would actually improve?

 

Absolutely, especially if they use the freed up money to pay for more offensive production.

 

Now Bo is off to a slow start, but he's gotten it going after slow starts before.

 

But it's not hard to replace a 1 WAR first baseman or 2 WAR right fielder. If Bo gets it going again as a 4 WAR SS, he's harder to replace for sure.

[Orgfiller]

Pulled HRs on Fastballs (4S 2S, cutter, sinker) since 2023 start

 

8 - Davis Schneider in 187 PAs

 

5- Vlad in 778 PAs

 

3 - Ernie Clement in 96 PAs

That is damning. To the eye test you can definitely tell he's not doing any damage on fastballs, he either guesses right and pounds one into the ground, slaps a single the other way, or is blown away while he's getting some other pitch. This would be fine if he was otherwise crushing mistake breaking balls, but instead he makes his mind up on which pitches to swing at and then whiffs badly on breaking balls a foot away.

 

What a sad hitter he's become.

[BigCecil]

If the team trades away Springer, Vlad and Bo as we start to be just a .500 team, doesn't it seem possible that the team would actually improve?

 

Springer's 3/75 is not moveable without eating most of it, so not much point. Maybe a VW/Rios type deal if they can find a mark.

 

But more importantly mentally anyone who thinks we can't move on from Bo and Vlad and still compete need to think about HOU losing Correa, Cole and Springer. Freeman and Swanson leaving ATL after WS. All players worth more than Vlad and often more than Bo has been. The Rays lost Wander f***ing Franco and Glasnow and too many others to count, and they remain ahead or right there with us in the standings. Our "core" has been largely a mirage.

 

The Yanks have gone through a lot. Cole is out. Judge slow start. DJL on the IL. Severino never panned out with IL stints. Rodon inconsistency. Yet 15-7 leading D.

 

Its not even the end of April so much can change. After 60-70 ish games all will have a much better sense where we are but as early as this trade deadline could be very interesting for fans and this FO.

[BatFlip]

Absolutely, especially if they use the freed up money to pay for more offensive production.

 

Now Bo is off to a slow start, but he's gotten it going after slow starts before.

 

But it's not hard to replace a 1 WAR first baseman or 2 WAR right fielder. If Bo gets it going again as a 4 WAR SS, he's harder to replace for sure.

 

 

Exactly. It's f***ing crazy that some people on here are writing Bo off after 87 PA this year.

 

This kid has put up 16 WAR in his first 2400 PAs and has three straight seasons of at least 4 WAR. You definitely trade him if things go south through the season, but people are acting like he's a useless bum. We're in April!

[Laika]

Vlad + Bo + Springer = $56.14M in 2024 payroll

 

Next year that trio will be up over $62M

[BTS]

Springer isn't going anywhere, but I think the team looks legitimately better going forward if Vlad is non-tendered and Bo flipped of for a pitcher or prospects or whatever, and their money spent on like Pete Alonso + Adames or Kim. Assuming Soto/Bregman aren't in play.

[The_DH]

Absolutely, especially if they use the freed up money to pay for more offensive production.

 

Now Bo is off to a slow start, but he's gotten it going after slow starts before.

 

But it's not hard to replace a 1 WAR first baseman or 2 WAR right fielder. If Bo gets it going again as a 4 WAR SS, he's harder to replace for sure.

 

It would free up some cash to re-sign the Kooch and then sign a real bat for the outfield if Barger doesn't claim the spot.

[Laika]

Springer isn't going anywhere, but I think the team looks legitimately better going forward if Vlad is non-tendered and Bo flipped of for a pitcher or prospects or whatever, and their money spent on like Pete Alonso + Adames or Kim. Assuming Soto/Bregman aren't in play.

 

Trade Bo for stuff

non-tender Vlad

 

Commit all of that payroll to Juan Soto even if it takes $40M

 

The SS can just be Clement. 1B can be a Horwitz/Orelvis platoon or something.

[BTS]

Trade Bo for stuff

non-tender Vlad

 

Commit all of that payroll to Juan Soto even if it takes $40M

 

The SS can just be Clement. 1B can be a Horwitz/Orelvis platoon or something.

 

This would be ideal

[The_DH]

This would be ideal

 

I think somebody like the Angels would pay something for Vlad.

[Orgfiller]

Trade Bo for stuff

non-tender Vlad

 

Commit all of that payroll to Juan Soto even if it takes $40M

 

The SS can just be Clement. 1B can be a Horwitz/Orelvis platoon or something.

 

I think we can aim a lot higher than Clement at SS. He's basically a poor man's Bichette, best suited for a utility role/LHP platoon bat. I think if all of these MIF/CIF options keep tracking well we're obviously going to have to trade a couple of them, unless Barger is the RF of the future. Having all of Orelvis, Schneider, Biggio, Ernie, Barger splitting time in the bigs provides a handful of riches, but likely results in diminishing returns. Then there's also Palmegiani, Horwitz, Leo Jimenez as lower end options which could be throw-ins in a deal.

[burlingtonbandit]

Springer looks cooked at this point. Just no power at all anymore, exit velo down. To his credit he's cut down on his strikeouts but he's turned himself into a slap hitter. We knew he was going to decline but he looks like a 1.5-2 Win player now and that contract still has 2 more years.

 

Team really needs power and they're just isn't much when you look down the lineup especially if Vladdy isn't going to be a 35HR guy.

[Jonn]

Whatever happened to Springer needs to be studied. Such a massive decline.

[glory]

Trading Bo and signing Kim or Adames makes a lot of sense. The latter two should come a lot cheaper than whatever Bo values himself at, and are much better defensively. I’ve said before I don’t think Bichette’s bat is going to age well. Someone mentioned Tim Anderson, and I could definitely see that type of drop off as he gets older and his bat speed diminishes. Trading him prior to this season when he had two cost certain years left and a s***** FA market for SS’s would have been better but I get that they wanted to compete this season and Bo is still a 4 WAR caliber player until proven otherwise.

 

Give Soto $50m a year and surround him with young players from the farm system, and I’ll be fine with that. He’s practically the same age as most of them anyway so the timelines match up.

[Orgfiller]

Whatever happened to Springer needs to be studied. Such a massive decline.

 

There's plenty of studies surrounding what's happened to Springer. Age and injury related decline lol. He's followed a completely normal aging curve given his injury history.

 

Age 28 (HOU) - 3.1 WAR

Age 29 (HOU) - 6.1 WAR (peak)

Age 30 (HOU) - 1.9 WAR, shortened season, translates to 5.2 WAR/140 games

Age 31 (TOR) - 2.6 WAR, missed half the season to injury, translates to 4.7 WAR/140 games

Age 32 (TOR)- 4.1 WAR

Age 33 (TOR) - 1.8 WAR, underperformed xWOBA by 12 points, most prolific steal season of his career

Age 34 (TOR) (now) - underperforming his xWOBA by 45 points

[BTS]

Yeah, Springer is overpaid and it would be good to be rid of him. But I don't think it's at the point where he's a major problem. He's still an average RF defender, and I think he'll be a bit above average offensively this year. He still runs pretty well. You don't want to pay 25M for a 2-win RF, but it's also not crippling for the back half of a FA contract.