General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Terminator]

I was unaware of the rule that future Hall of Famers were only limited to one bounce back season per career.

 

Since Votto has already had more than one, perhaps he is immune to that rule and can have another.

 

He was hurt the past couple of years and while age 40 players tend to get injured again (he already has lol) or their previous injuries don't improve, it is possible that whatever health issues he has clear up and he becomes the age 40 version of the 2021 season.

[glory]

Tonight's lineup is same old, same old (Springer-Vlad-Bo-Turner-Biggio-Kirk-Varsho-IKF-KK). It's bad enough they never start DS, now they make us wait for Jansen too.

[The Cats Ass]

Tonight's lineup is same old, same old (Springer-Vlad-Bo-Turner-Biggio-Kirk-Varsho-IKF-KK). It's bad enough they never start DS, now they make us wait for Jansen too.

 

It's even Jansen's birthday.

[The_DH]

Wonder if Biggio should get a spell as leadoff and move Springer to 5th-6th?

[Laika]

Wonder if Biggio should get a spell as leadoff and move Springer to 5th-6th?

 

They should probably send a message and make Springer, Bo, Vlad, Kirk all hit 6-7-8-9 for a series.

[wilko]

They should probably send a message and make Springer, Bo, Vlad, Kirk all hit 6-7-8-9 for a series.

 

They should. Leave Turner 4th because he's the best and shake up the rest.

[Jays24]

Schneider has a higher OPS by far and tied for the most RBIs on the team in half the at bats of our top 3 hitters. A shakeup should definitely happen because no player should be handed anything. Your spot in the lineup should be earned.

[Krylian]

Oh, he's gonna rake alright.

 

Dead cat bounce incoming.

 

I agree. This will be Votto pretty soon.

 

[Masterbather]

I agree. This will be Votto pretty soon.

 

 

Funny how he suddenly got patriotic when he needed a job. I still don't get why Brandon Belt isn't here, how much could he possibly cost at this point?

[wilko]

Funny how he suddenly got patriotic when he needed a job. I still don't get why Brandon Belt isn't here, how much could he possibly cost at this point?

 

I thought he was going to retire?

[M.E.]

They should probably send a message and make Springer, Bo, Vlad, Kirk all hit 6-7-8-9 for a series.

 

100% right. They clearly need to be told to try harder. Do this and you could count on zero respect for your manager, no Free Agent ever considering Toronto, and say good bye to Bo/Vlad for sure in FA.

[Masterbather]

I thought he was going to retire?

Well he's not, and he's spoken about how baffled he is about not getting any interest. As am I.

[Laika]

100% right. They clearly need to be told to try harder. Do this and you could count on zero respect for your manager, no Free Agent ever considering Toronto, and say good bye to Bo/Vlad for sure in FA.

 

Okay so what would.you do?

 

Sit there and smell Vlad's farts all season then miss the playoffs?

[M.E.]

Okay so what would.you do?

 

Sit there and smell Vlad's farts all season then miss the playoffs?

 

Only change I would make right now is Vlad and Bo to switch. I like Bo in the 2 better than Vlad. Bo profiles better there and when Vlad does Vlad JT is there to clean it up.

[Masterbather]

Okay so what would.you do?

 

Sit there and smell Vlad's farts all season then miss the playoffs?

A reading from the book of Shea:

 

Accountability is non existent on this team. If you can watch Guerrero constantly f*** up on the bases multiple times a year and not bench him a single time for it and then watch it catch up to you in the postseason when he makes one of the dumbest baserunning gaffes I've ever seen, then you can just forget about accountability ever being a real thing for this team.

 

Thanks be to Shea.

[keggy]

Those last couple of years with Springer are going to be rough

[Omar]

Okay so what would.you do?

 

Sit there and smell Vlad's farts all season then miss the playoffs?

 

I agree with what Masterbather posted a while back; the only thing that Vladdy understands is playing time. I would sit him a little more than usual just to subtley send the message without having to embarrass him publicly.

[Daniel Labude]

100% right. They clearly need to be told to try harder. Do this and you could count on zero respect for your manager, no Free Agent ever considering Toronto, and say good bye to Bo/Vlad for sure in FA.

 

The guy isn't very smart and probably wants that

[Stangstag]

I thought he was going to retire?

 

No, he wanted to play but didn’t get any offers

[G-Snarls]

I thought he was going to retire?

 

He just said he wouldn't take a minor league deal

[Olerud363]

Okay so what would.you do?

 

Sit there and smell Vlad's farts all season then miss the playoffs?

 

Everything is weird these days, however if in 1 month, Clement and Schneider are still performing what do you do with that information?

 

In a logical world

 

1. The great minds on this board and the great minds that lead the Blue Jays would say 'Clement and Schneider are translating from Buffalo to Toronto with factor X' thus logically we should apply that same translation factor to Spencer. (ideally you would just apply long established milb to mlb translation factors, however there is an argument that all those are meaningless because of the strike zone challenges in the minors have f***ed everything up).

 

2. Spencer has no power (correction he has 12 homer power) and no first basemen without power has ever gotten more then negative 2 WAR at the major league level... or so we thought... however our data department just brought us a list of all 1b men 'without power' who ever had 3+ WAR and there are quite a few names on the list.

 

3. Just because 20 1b men without power (or something like that) since 1990 were good, that is meaningless. Could be there were 25000+ 1b in Buffalo/Scranton/Rochester/Sacramento etc. who hit .344 .470 .490 in those place and the success rate is really just 20/25000 so f*** Spencer.

 

4. Before f***ing SPencer at least get the right number of players like Spencer in high minors (it's not 25000) since 1990 and what percentage had success. Do highly advanced math (a/b) to get success rate.

 

Reality

 

YO BRO. 1b without power sucks. Spencer sucks. YOOOO!

[Olerud363]

Everything is weird these days, however if in 1 month, Clement and Schneider are still performing what do you do with that information?

 

In a logical world

 

1. The great minds on this board and the great minds that lead the Blue Jays would say 'Clement and Schneider are translating from Buffalo to Toronto with factor X' thus logically we should apply that same translation factor to Spencer. (ideally you would just apply long established milb to mlb translation factors, however there is an argument that all those are meaningless because of the strike zone challenges in the minors have f***ed everything up).

 

2. Spencer has no power (correction he has 12 homer power) and no first basemen without power has ever gotten more then negative 2 WAR at the major league level... or so we thought... however our data department just brought us a list of all 1b men 'without power' who ever had 3+ WAR and there are quite a few names on the list.

 

3. Just because 20 1b men without power (or something like that) since 1990 were good, that is meaningless. Could be there were 25000+ 1b in Buffalo/Scranton/Rochester/Sacramento etc. who hit .344 .470 .490 in those place and the success rate is really just 20/25000 so f*** Spencer.

 

4. Before f***ing SPencer at least get the right number of players like Spencer in high minors (it's not 25000) since 1990 and what percentage had success. Do highly advanced math (a/b) to get success rate.

 

Reality

 

YO BRO. 1b without power sucks. Spencer sucks. YOOOO!

 

I think the established projection systems show Spencer hitting .250 .340 .380 or so... so maybe he does suck. However I think there is a question of how much 'recency bias' should be put into these. Like if he hits .380 .500 .500 in Buffalo for another month, then you plug it back into the projection system the projection probably varies a lot depending on the weights you put on the last 8 months.

 

I think his projection could go way up depending how the formulat works (for example if his 2024 first 6 weeks starts getting weighted way higher than the 2022 last 6 weeks)

 

I predict Spencer will hit .290 .370 .440 in the majors with only sort of bad defense and would out-WAR vlad (because of Vlad -20 defense)

[harvey16]

We are very fortunate to be 9-8 right now considering we in the the bottom 10 in both hitting (21st in OPS) and pitching (23rd in ERA).

[BTS]

We are very fortunate to be 9-8 right now considering we in the the bottom 10 in both hitting (21st in OPS) and pitching (23rd in ERA).

 

Mostly agree, but the pitching has felt fine. Parsons and Espino got nuked, but in low leverage spots and they're gone now. Francis got nuked but he's probably gone now with Rodriguez taking his spot. Only real concern is Gausman, but hopefully his next start goes well and we can stop worrying. SPs and high leverage relief have been pretty solid I think, especially given that Romano and Swanson were out.

[harvey16]

Mostly agree, but the pitching has felt fine. Parsons and Espino got nuked, but in low leverage spots and they're gone now. Francis got nuked but he's probably gone now with Rodriguez taking his spot. Only real concern is Gausman, but hopefully his next start goes well and we can stop worrying. SPs and high leverage relief have been pretty solid I think, especially given that Romano and Swanson were out.

 

Yeah true. Would be nice to win a blowout. Feels like we have had to grind out almost every win, yet our loses have been mostly blowouts. Would be nice to win a blowout and take some pressure off the pitching staff. Always seems like they are in high leverage situations.

[Laika]

Mostly agree, but the pitching has felt fine. Parsons and Espino got nuked, but in low leverage spots and they're gone now. Francis got nuked but he's probably gone now with Rodriguez taking his spot. Only real concern is Gausman, but hopefully his next start goes well and we can stop worrying. SPs and high leverage relief have been pretty solid I think, especially given that Romano and Swanson were out.

 

Yeah, lots of those ERs come from junk pitchers or junk innings in blowouts.

 

Parsons, 6 ER

White, 6 ER

Espino, 4 ER

 

And then Bowden Francis has 14 ER and an 11.81 ERA but a 3.72 xFIP and a 12.66 K/9.... he's been super unlucky on homers.

 

Only concern in the rotation is Gausman. I feel fine with the SP5 slot, between Y Rod and Francis I think it will be solid going forward.

Only concern in the bullpen is Mayza. If Cabrera sucks, he sucks, he has been close to replacement level across his career. I guess Swanson and Romano carry injury concern.

[Hipfan]

we are last place

 

And 3 games back of first, so not really a big deal when there are almost 150 games left to be played

[Laika]

we are last place

 

tied for 3rd!

[glory]

Vlad, Bo, Springer, Varsho, Kirk, and KK have collectively been bad (combined WAR of 0.1). I think there’s a real chance KK is washed (never should have brought him back) but the others should get better as Turner, IKF, and Biggio regress. Then add Jansen to the mix which should help.

[Laika]

Vlad, Bo, Springer, Varsho, Kirk, and KK have collectively been bad (combined WAR of 0.1). I think there’s a real chance KK is washed (never should have brought him back) but the others should get better as Turner, IKF, and Biggio regress. Then add Jansen to the mix which should help.

 

I'd give KK a few more weeks before writing him off. If you look at 2023 I bet he had at least one month in the middle of the year that was horrible, like sub 50 wRC+ bad.