General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[jaysblue]

This division is tough af, and it seems like nothing ever clicks all at once for the Jays. f***ing cursed. Watch the bullpen implode next season while the offense is electric.

 

I could see that happening lol.

 

Bullpen's are always volatile from year-to-year, so ititss possible someone gets injured or sucks.

 

I'm more worried about the starting rotation to be honest. Things were so good last season with the rotation, it's expected that the rotation performs exactly the same. Everyone is a year older and there could be some concerns e.g. whether Kikuchi can deliver two years in a row, how does Bassitt respond to throwing a career high 200 innings from last season, what type of Berrios do we get, and if Gausman is still in elite form like being a 5-6 WAR pitcher. Hope Manoah can rebound as well, which would definitely make things easier if one of the above happened to the other 4 arms.

[jaysblue]

I have to say it is kind of ironic Shapiro criticized AA about trading the prospects meanwhile the Jays have really struggled at drafting/developing young talent in the 8 years since.

 

I wouldn’t even call the 2020 season contending, they were 4 games above .500 in a shortened season with expanded playoffs. 2021 was the best team in the “window” they have had which is funny since they didn’t make the playoffs ironically.

 

Atkins certainly isn’t the worst GM but I think people also again don’t take into account the payroll when comparing what AA had to work with back then. Remember the ST when he basically had to go around to players asking for deferred money to try to get Ervin Santana since Roger’s didn’t want to spend.

 

Atkins isn't a bad GM at all. Does he get more praise on here than he deserves? I think he does.

 

The 2020 season was a joke. 60 game schedule and 8 teams in each league made the Postseason.

 

2021 was the most exciting team and best team IMO assembled in the Atkins era. It's a shame that team never made the Postseason because I think they could have went on a big run. Atkins missed that "big push" in 2021 which would have been really helpful.

 

Yup under AA, Jays had to work with a tighter payroll even prior to the 2015 season. As well, there was no expanded Playoffs, so the Jays either had to win the division or more than 90 games for a WC spot.

[Spanky99]

AA brought up unsolicited, by the one and ONLY you... well done.

 

At least Atkins hadn't sold the farm for contention, could've been done, but RA didn't panic.

 

https://media0.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExa25xMTZ5aXhkbGl2dzl0dTQxZmltOWRyaDBkNGRkeDlldDBsdmxtaiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/CJN2cdXD51Q2c/giphy.gif

[max silver]

In our hearts, 2015 was all we needed. I still believe that we had the best team in baseball that year. Never once have I felt that way during the Shatkins era.

 

It's crazy because the best team during the Shatkins era in my eyes was the year we didn't even make the playoffs in 2021. That was our best chance to win it all but Shatkins took too long to bolster to bullpen that year.

 

I think the 2021 was very comparable to the 2015 team in terms of overall talent. It will forever haunt me that team missed the playoffs by a single game as it was an offensive juggernaut with solid defense and pitching.

[wamco]

https://media0.giphy.com/media/v1.y2lkptc5mgi3njexa25xmtz5axhkbgl2dzl0dtqxzmltowryadbkngrkedllddbsdmxtaizlcd12mv9pbnrlcm5hbf9nawzfynlfawqmy3q9zw/cjn2cdxd51q2c/giphy.gif

 

k….

[max silver]

Atkins isn't a bad GM at all. Does he get more praise on here than he deserves? I think he does.

 

The 2020 season was a joke. 60 game schedule and 8 teams in each league made the Postseason.

 

2021 was the most exciting team and best team IMO assembled in the Atkins era. It's a shame that team never made the Postseason because I think they could have went on a big run. Atkins missed that "big push" in 2021 which would have been really helpful.

 

Yup under AA, Jays had to work with a tighter payroll even prior to the 2015 season. As well, there was no expanded Playoffs, so the Jays either had to win the division or more than 90 games for a WC spot.

 

I don't think Atkins really actually receives a ton of praise on here, it's more that he's defended against some of the criticism that he receives for s*** that's ultimately out of his control. Like how half of the team simultaneously had bad offensive seasons in 2023, that s***'s bad luck beyond his control. Or that his team was bad offensively but primarily only at Roger's Center. It's pretty hard to blame the GM for an almost random occurrence of his team not being able to perform with RISP at home. Or the criticism that he didn't add an offensive difference maker at last season's trade deadline, except the issue with that particular bit of criticism is that no difference makers were even traded or seemingly available in the first place beyond massive overpays.

 

He's made his share of mistakes along the way particularly in his early years when the team was being torn down, but for the most part he's been a solid GM who makes good trades and free agent signings during the team's competitive phase. There is criticism over the team trading prospects when there was a statement that the team wanted "waves of prospects", but for the most part the right players have been traded as very view of the higher rated prospects who were traded have amounted to anything anyway, and for the most part the players who were brought back in trade for higher ranked prospects have been key contributors and the trades have been easily worth the price that was paid (Berrios, Chapman etc.). The organization needs to do a better job attaining above average amateur talent as the lack of potential impact players is the primary issue with the farm system at present. The lack of home grown starting pitching is a primary concern and is largely why I would have no interest in seeing the team trade away the likes of Tiedemann and Manoah as seeing each of them become regular rotation members is key to sustained contention as the rotation is eating up a huge chunk of the available payroll.

Edited February 7, 2024 by max silver

[Olerud363]

 

I mean - I can give you my guess, but it's really a crap shoot. I think one of Horwitz, Orelvis, Schneider and Barger will be a starter for a good team, one will be a starter for a crappy team, one will be a good platoon/bench player and one will become a AAAA player. If I were to guess, I'd say Orelvis will be the starter on a good team, Schneider the starter on a crappy team, Barger will be the good platoon/bench player and Horwitz will bust.

 

Interesting thing at beginning of 2015 Jays had Pompey, Devon Travis, Ryan Goins, Kevin Pillar as the group of second class prospects. I'm not even sure the group was bigger than that. Maybe you could include Andy Burns. I don't think Anthony Alford was in aaa in 2015, so can't really include him.

 

Out of those 4 they essentially got 4 'regular on a contender' seasons. Pillar both 2015 and 2016, Goins 2015, Travis 2016 (well essentially because of injury he gave 1 complete season).

 

There is another degree of freedom here in 'how many 'starter for a good team' seasons can these guys provide?

 

Even if the answer is '1 or 2' if the '1 or 2' are in 2024 and 2025 that is good. The older guys like Schneider and Horwitz are actually situated like Pillar/Goins/Devon Travis. Could potentially give their best 2 seasons the next 2 years and be regulars on a contender, before starting the decay.

[Brownie19]

So you're saying they're holding back from building the best possible team because of expanded playoffs? Maybe that's why we have 0 playoff wins in this era loll.

 

That would be really dumb if true given Roger’s owns SN and tv ratings would be a lot higher if they were in a division race, not to mention attendance.

 

While the attendance numbers the last 2 years were pretty good there just was never that same excitement/energy that was in the ballpark during those 15/16 years. I don’t think the casual fan cares as much about making it in as a wildcard team.

 

If only 3-4 teams in the AL make the playoffs each year, you may need to pour more resources ($, prospects) into the team when you see the opportunity. This will likely impact your ability to contend in future seasons, over a longer period. If 6 teams make the playoffs in the AL, it gives you more wiggle room to retain your resources, while still making the playoffs. Theoretically, this will give you a better chance to be a consistent playoff contender over a longer period. Smaller window v. larger window.

 

It certainly appears this is a strategy of Atkins/Shapiro. I suspect their goal is to make it into the playoffs as often as possible. This may be the strategy because they believe the teams that make the playoffs all have a relatively similar chance of winning the World Series (the best teams don't always win, teams get "hot" at different times, etc.) - and/or - this could simply be a strategy that Rogers supports and wants. I believe Rogers actually held Atkins/Shapiro back from accelerating the rebuild in 2017-2019 - which would be some antidotal evidence they want a competitive team on the field as often as possible and don't want peaks and valleys.

 

As noted, the FO resisted the urge to "go for it" in 2021, which was probably the best team under Atkins/Shapiro - and that backfired, we didn't perform and missed the playoffs by a game. But, that decision to hold the line may give us a better chance of making the playoffs in 2024, 2025 and 2026, instead of having to rebuild/retool by now. Atkins/Shapiro/Rogers may all look at that as the preferred approach. This approach is contrary to what AA did in 2015, where he "pushed all in" for a short 2 year window, followed by 3 years of rebuilding/retooling. That strategy gave us some very exciting times - but it didn't bring a title either. All strategies have pro's and con's.

 

Attendance and TV ratings in 2015/16 would also be impacted by the fact the team hadn't been in the playoffs since 1993.

 

Hope that helps.

Edited February 7, 2024 by Brownie19

[glory]

The 2021 and 2022 teams were not "borderline WC teams". The 2021 team had a 99 win expected W/L and finished 4th in their own division with 91 wins. The 2022 team had the 3rd best record in the AL and were 2nd in the AL in runs (4th in MLB). The 2023 was the closest thing to a borderline WC team during this run, and they finished with 1 fewer win than the eventual World Series champions. Don't get me wrong, the 2023 team were a huge long shot to advance in the playoffs given how the offense looked, but the 2021-22 teams were legitimately good. Sometimes the playoffs are what they are.

[deanmike]

 

If true I am about to become the biggest Shatkins fan on this board.

[max silver]

 

If true I am about to become the biggest Shatkins fan on this board.

 

Because they saved a few million bucks? Given your obsession over budgetary matters I guess that checks out fully.

[wilko]

 

If true I am about to become the biggest Shatkins fan on this board.

 

It probably wasn't very hard with the season he had last year.

[John_Havok]

Because they saved a few million bucks? Given your obsession over budgetary matters I guess that checks out fully.

 

Who's AveryChenier?

 

Nobody.

[Stangstag]

 

If true I am about to become the biggest Shatkins fan on this board.

 

Lol. Some well-deserved humble pie for Vlad

[Laika]

Big deal

 

It sends a message

 

And every cent counts

[deanmike]

Because they saved a few million bucks? Given your obsession over budgetary matters I guess that checks out fully.

 

Nope, because I hate Vlad and love the idea that Jays reps shredded him in the hearing and won.

[deanmike]

It probably wasn't very hard with the season he had last year.

 

His ask was 500k lower than Fangraphs arb projection for him. It was widely expected that Vlad would win his case.

[burlingtonbandit]

I don't think Atkins really actually receives a ton of praise on here, it's more that he's defended against some of the criticism that he receives for s*** that's ultimately out of his control. Like how half of the team simultaneously had bad offensive seasons in 2023, that s***'s bad luck beyond his control. Or that his team was bad offensively but primarily only at Roger's Center. It's pretty hard to blame the GM for an almost random occurrence of his team not being able to perform with RISP at home. Or the criticism that he didn't add an offensive difference maker at last season's trade deadline, except the issue with that particular bit of criticism is that no difference makers were even traded or seemingly available in the first place beyond massive overpays.

 

He's made his share of mistakes along the way particularly in his early years when the team was being torn down, but for the most part he's been a solid GM who makes good trades and free agent signings during the team's competitive phase. There is criticism over the team trading prospects when there was a statement that the team wanted "waves of prospects", but for the most part the right players have been traded as very view of the higher rated prospects who were traded have amounted to anything anyway, and for the most part the players who were brought back in trade for higher ranked prospects have been key contributors and the trades have been easily worth the price that was paid (Berrios, Chapman etc.). The organization needs to do a better job attaining above average amateur talent as the lack of potential impact players is the primary issue with the farm system at present. The lack of home grown starting pitching is a primary concern and is largely why I would have no interest in seeing the team trade away the likes of Tiedemann and Manoah as seeing each of them become regular rotation members is key to sustained contention as the rotation is eating up a huge chunk of the available payroll.

 

I agree he's a "solid" GM on paper when you look at free agents/trades. He also doesn't seem cut out for the "GM" role when you think of speaking to media, players etc... You want a leader as a GM and someone who inspires confidence throughout the organization. Shapiro fits the bill in this regard but Atkins seems more like a smart baseball mind who got put in the role as a GM.

 

Right after the season this year he throws his Manager under the bus, to deflect blame on himself. You had guys like Whit publicly questioning the organization and then you had clusterf*** situations with Anthony Bass and Manoah. Now that being said players can be idiots as well like Stroman throwing a fit in the clubhouse after being traded and the Manoah situation but its a GM's job to handle those situations and communicate with the players so they understand. The Bass situation was handled extremely poorly and rumours the other players in the clubhouse were pissed off about it.

 

Of course roster moves matter more than these little nuance situations, but when a team has continued to fall short of expectations, you start wondering why that is and who knows maybe these type of things matter more than one would think?

[burlingtonbandit]

If only 3-4 teams in the AL make the playoffs each year, you may need to pour more resources ($, prospects) into the team when you see the opportunity. This will likely impact your ability to contend in future seasons, over a longer period. If 6 teams make the playoffs in the AL, it gives you more wiggle room to retain your resources, while still making the playoffs. Theoretically, this will give you a better chance to be a consistent playoff contender over a longer period. Smaller window v. larger window.

 

It certainly appears this is a strategy of Atkins/Shapiro. I suspect their goal is to make it into the playoffs as often as possible. This may be the strategy because they believe the teams that make the playoffs all have a relatively similar chance of winning the World Series (the best teams don't always win, teams get "hot" at different times, etc.) - and/or - this could simply be a strategy that Rogers supports and wants. I believe Rogers actually held Atkins/Shapiro back from accelerating the rebuild in 2017-2019 - which would be some antidotal evidence they want a competitive team on the field as often as possible and don't want peaks and valleys.

 

As noted, the FO resisted the urge to "go for it" in 2021, which was probably the best team under Atkins/Shapiro - and that backfired, we didn't perform and missed the playoffs by a game. But, that decision to hold the line may give us a better chance of making the playoffs in 2024, 2025 and 2026, instead of having to rebuild/retool by now. Atkins/Shapiro/Rogers may all look at that as the preferred approach. This approach is contrary to what AA did in 2015/2016, where he "pushed all in" for a short 2 year window, followed by 3 years of rebuilding/retooling. That strategy gave us some very exciting times - but it didn't bring a title either. All strategies have pro's and con's.

 

Attendance and TV ratings in 2015/16 would also be impacted by the fact the team hadn't been in the playoffs since 1993.

 

Hope that helps.

 

I understand the thought process behind this but the flaw is it looks like the Blue Jays are going to be headed to a soft rebuild/retool soon anyways. Having a bunch of good depth is great if you have impact type players to surround them but a collection of 1-2 Win players isn't going to compete in the AL East and even the 3rd wildcard may not be enough. Also who knows if ownership is going to continue supporting this level of payroll for a "wildcard" team.

 

Also you would think Attendance at least TV ratings (attendance could have covid impact) would also be stronger in 2022/2023 given it was 6 years since they last made the postseason. The home playoff games in 2022 had really weak demand with secondary ticket prices being like $10 the day of the game (and that was on weekend as well)

[max silver]

I agree he's a "solid" GM on paper when you look at free agents/trades. He also doesn't seem cut out for the "GM" role when you think of speaking to media, players etc... You want a leader as a GM and someone who inspires confidence throughout the organization. Shapiro fits the bill in this regard but Atkins seems more like a smart baseball mind who got put in the role as a GM.

 

Right after the season this year he throws his Manager under the bus, to deflect blame on himself. You had guys like Whit publicly questioning the organization and then you had clusterf*** situations with Anthony Bass and Manoah. Now that being said players can be idiots as well like Stroman throwing a fit in the clubhouse after being traded and the Manoah situation but its a GM's job to handle those situations and communicate with the players so they understand. The Bass situation was handled extremely poorly and rumours the other players in the clubhouse were pissed off about it.

 

Of course roster moves matter more than these little nuance situations, but when a team has continued to fall short of expectations, you start wondering why that is and who knows maybe these type of things matter more than one would think?

 

What do you think should have been done differently with the Bass situation? It appears to me that the organization went out of their way in trying to save the guy's job, but then Bass signed his own death warrant when he doubled down on the type of comments that got him in trouble in the first place. If other players want to respect a player's right to openly promote bigotry I really don't know what you would expect for a team's management to do to smooth this over. The fact that nobody else in baseball was willing to sign him for the rest of the season shows how much of a headache Bass created for the team all of his own accord. Manoah reportedly refused to report to AAA later in the season, and I can't see how that's any fault of the general manager. Maybe you can explain that to me what should have been done differently. Should Manoah have been suspended without pay or something? That certainly would have sent a definitive message to the player and his management but with talk of an already fractured relationship that would have been throwing gasoline onto the fire.

 

To my eyes the timing of the early Berrios pull was entirely in the hands of John Schneider. Both Atkins and Schneider have been saying essentially the same thing in the media so I don't particularly understand the outrage placed at the feet of Atkins for this. There seemed to be a general organizational strategy put in place to pull Berrios at an opportune moment to get the Twins left handed bats out of the game, and Schneider implemented the switch very early in the game. I can agree that there should have been better communication with the players with regards to this scheme, but I'm not sure who the responsibility for this particular bit of communication should fall upon. I'd expect this is more of a responsibility of the coaching staff vs front office but I'm not that familiar with the inner workings of a professional baseball team with this particular issue.

[L54]

 

If true I am about to become the biggest Shatkins fan on this board.

 

First W of 2024

[John_Havok]

Any particular reason why this random twitter guy is being hailed as a reliable source for the Vlad hearing outcomes when legit journalists haven't mentioned anything?

 

50/50 he's right without "hearing" anything

[deanmike]

Any particular reason why this random twitter guy is being hailed as a reliable source for the Vlad hearing outcomes when legit journalists haven't mentioned anything?

 

50/50 he's right without "hearing" anything

 

Gate 14 guys called some stuff like callups during the season. They've been gaining sauces.

[Brownie19]

I understand the thought process behind this but the flaw is it looks like the Blue Jays are going to be headed to a soft rebuild/retool soon anyways. Having a bunch of good depth is great if you have impact type players to surround them but a collection of 1-2 Win players isn't going to compete in the AL East and even the 3rd wildcard may not be enough. Also who knows if ownership is going to continue supporting this level of payroll for a "wildcard" team.

 

Also you would think Attendance at least TV ratings (attendance could have covid impact) would also be stronger in 2022/2023 given it was 6 years since they last made the postseason. The home playoff games in 2022 had really weak demand with secondary ticket prices being like $10 the day of the game (and that was on weekend as well)

 

It seems likely the team will contend for a playoff spot this year and next, which will make it 5 years in a row (after they had to rebuild/retool from 2017-2019). Even if they have to blow it up after that, Rogers may see that as significantly better than the ONE playoff team that AA provided (partial marks for the 2016 team - but he wasn't the GM that season).

 

The issue has obviously been playoff wins, which I do believe involve a lot of luck/circumstances. Teams like the Braves/Dodgers - GREAT teams lose in the first round every year and we often do see teams like the Diamondbacks win a series or 2 every year. If the Jays won a couple of rounds in 2021/2022 (when they were legit a good team) and a round or 2 in either 2020 or 2023 (when they weren't as good) - I don't think people would complain about Atkins NEARLY as much. The hate for him is primarily based on playoff results.

 

The Blue Jays probability of winning the WC series has been as follows:

 

2020 - 33%

2022 - 57%

2023 - 56%

 

In 2021, we were beat out by the Red Sox, who beat the Yanks in the WC game and then had a 49% chance of beating the 100 win Rays in the ALDS. 100 win team v. 92 win team in the playoffs was a coin flip.

 

In 2022, we were tied with the Mets as the highest probability of winning their WC series and last year were only a few % points behind the Phillies (59%). The Rangers and Diamondbacks only had a 43% of winning their WC series last year - and both teams went to the World Series. I was just f***ing around on Fangraphs and the HIGHEST probability of winning an ALDS I found was like 62% - which was the Dodgers v. Diamondbacks last year and of course the Diamondbacks won that.

 

The playoffs are a crapshoot! Blaming the GM primarily for playoff results isn't a great idea. The Diamondbacks GM isn't better than Atkins simply because they won 3 playoff series last year.

Edited February 7, 2024 by Brownie19

[Terminator]

 

If true I am about to become the biggest Shatkins fan on this board.

 

Lmao he asked for less than he was projected for and still lost. Now get your s*** together Vlad.

[burlingtonbandit]

It seems likely the team will contend for a playoff spot this year and next, which will make it 5 years in a row (after they had to rebuild/retool from 2017-2019). Even if they have to blow it up after that, Rogers may see that as significantly better than the ONE playoff team that AA provided (partial marks for the 2016 team - but he wasn't the GM that season).

 

The issue has obviously been playoff wins, which I do believe involve a lot of luck/circumstances. Teams like the Braves/Dodgers - GREAT teams lose in the first round every year and we often do see teams like the Diamondbacks win a series or 2 every year. If the Jays won a couple of rounds in 2021/2022 (when they were legit a good team) and a round or 2 in either 2020 or 2023 (when they weren't as good) - I don't think people would complain about Atkins NEARLY as much. The hate for him is primarily based on playoff results.

 

The Blue Jays probability of winning the WC series has been as follows:

 

2020 - 33%

2022 - 57%

2023 - 56%

 

In 2021, we were beat out by the Red Sox, who beat the Yanks in the WC game and then had a 49% chance of beating the 100 win Rays in the ALDS. 100 win team v. 92 win team in the playoffs was a coin flip.

 

In 2022, we were tied with the Mets as the highest probability of winning their WC series and last year were only a few % points behind the Phillies (59%). The Rangers and Diamondbacks only had a 43% of winning their WC series last year - and both teams went to the World Series. I was just f***ing around on Fangraphs and the HIGHEST probability of winning an ALDS I found was like 62% - which was the Dodgers v. Diamondbacks last year and of course the Diamondbacks won that.

 

The playoffs are a crapshoot! Blaming the GM primarily for playoff results isn't a great idea. The Diamondbacks GM isn't better than Atkins simply because they won 3 playoff series last year.

 

I mean is contending for a wildcard birth that impressive in the 3 team wildcard era? Especially when you have a payroll over 200M? I agree had the Jays won some playoff games the fans feelings towards the FO would be better, at the same time if you judge the entire Ross Atkins tenure to date the team has only made the playoffs 3 times. (If you want to say 2021 team was good enough, I agree but at the same time counting 2020 the team wasn't that good and it was a shortened season). And while the playoffs is a lot of luck, the reality is the team hasn't won one single game. 2022 the team was pretty good and going into the postseason and I think fans were hoping to beat the Mariners but knew they weren't one of the best teams on "paper". Last year everyone knew that Jays team was flawed and it had to been one of the least liked Jays teams I can remember.

 

And then when you combine that with the team's below average farm system and Vladdy and Bo's impending FA status, you're just left with this "Meh" feeling surrounding the franchise.

[Jays333]

I think Atkins and Shapiro haven't been terrible, but they haven't been great either. Reality is in Baseball you used to have to be elite to make the playoffs. Now you just have to be good. So I dont blame them for taking the less aggressive approach and trying for sustained success. However for the payroll and expectations that were set up for the Vlad/Bo era, just being perennial wildcard contender isn't satisfying. Satisfying Rogers, probably. Fans not really. It doesn't help their case that they claimed they would build some great farm system and we are currently positioned in the bottom 3rd. It also doesn't help that these guys replaced AA who has gone on to become one of the best GM's in the MLB.

[John_Havok]

I mean is contending for a wildcard birth that impressive in the 3 team wildcard era?

 

It's a sliding scale for sure but... spending money doesn't guarantee championships in MLB, all it really does is give you a higher probability of making the playoffs over time.

 

Like anything with numbers, there's always exceptions on a single season basis, but when you look at playoff appearances over the long term, the more you spend, the more appearances you make in the playoffs.

 

People fall in love with the DBacks, but there's a decent chance they put up more wins this season (say 86ish) and miss the playoffs entirely vs last season when they squeak in with 84 wins

[Laika]

Don't think Shapiro ever claimed or promised they would build a great farm system. His comment about "waves of prospects" can be interpreted differently. Every decent MLB team needs a consistent pipeline but that doesn't mean they ever need an elite farm system, necessarily. There are a number of consistently successful teams that rarely have great farm systems.

 

Shapiro's criticism of AA was mostly based on the over-aggressive path to building that led to the required rebuild from 2017 on. I think Atkins and Shapiro believe Toronto has the resources to never need to enter a full rebuild.

 

Say what you want about the last few years, which have of course had disappointing results on the whole, but they have avoided horrible long term commitments while remaining competitive. Springer's deal is up after 2026, and Berrios' deal while it runs through 2028 is not bad at all considering his 2023 resurgence and his age (not old!). Gausman is a big asset right now on his contract.

 

Lot of focus on the Vlad/Bo window but even if these guys walk, that just means that Toronto will have like $42.5M in freed up payroll space after 2025 to court a huge free agent or two. Also, Bassitt ($22M), Green ($10.5M), IKF ($7.5M), Romano (Arb3), Mayza and Swanson are off the books after 2025 if not extended, so lots of money will be freed up. Also Turner and Kikuchi and KK and Yimi and Jansen and Richards ($47M) freed up after this season, we will see how much of that is recommitted in 2025 to arb raises and free agents.

 

Teams go down the tubes when they have sandbag commitments or dead money, and a s***** farm. Toronto has a middling farm system right now but the financial outlook at the MLB level is pretty solid, IMO, in a long term sense. So if they keep spending money intelligently, year over year, there aren't a lot of worries.

 

The farm system could tread water, Vlad and Bo could walk after 2025, and Toronto could still compete in 2026. It's a distinct possibility. One big free agent replaces Bo... a waiver claim 1B replaces Vladdy based on his 2023 performance.

 

Actually developing some elite prospect talent would certainly help take the team from an 88-92 win team to that 98+ win team everybody wants, though.

[Terminator]

Some projected standings have been recently released:

 

Fangraphs thinks we have a 48% chance to make the playoffs: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

PECOTA thinks we have a 64% chance. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/