General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Virgil_Hiltz]

He believed he could eradicate arm injuries. Instead after his playing career he threw screwballs at the dog catcher. Fun connection, Marshall's screwball was taught to 1 person Brett Honeywell Sr. Who taught it to his son...who was asked to stop throwing it by the Rays and he refused. My guess is if you are a dog catcher, stay out of BHJ's neighbourhood.

 

I think there were a few other legal issues as well!

[Virgil_Hiltz]

He believed he could eradicate arm injuries. Instead after his playing career he threw screwballs at the dog catcher. Fun connection, Marshall's screwball was taught to 1 person Brett Honeywell Sr. Who taught it to his son...who was asked to stop throwing it by the Rays and he refused. My guess is if you are a dog catcher, stay out of BHJ's neighbourhood.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31553574/why-pitching-know-today-exist-mike-marshall

[philly30]

went into a Italian resturant and we ordered pizza. Too make a long story short, there was delay after delays pushing to over an hour. Finally a friend pulled out his cell phone and ordered a pizza to be delvered to the resturant. The delivered pizza came first and we left!

 

Sounds like it could be a Seinfeld episode

[WryNGinger]

went into a Italian resturant and we ordered pizza. Too make a long story short, there was delay after delays pushing to over an hour. Finally a friend pulled out his cell phone and ordered a pizza to be delvered to the resturant. The delivered pizza came first and we left!

 

I was in a pub for around 10 minutes with my gf and no one had come over yet. Googled, then called the pub and asked if they were open. They said Yes! I said that's cool because I am the red-head near the window waving at you and would love a beer...lol. Wasn't a dick about it, just had a chuckle with the waitress once she came over.

[TheHurl]

I was in a pub for around 10 minutes with my gf and no one had come over yet. Googled, then called the pub and asked if they were open. They said Yes! I said that's cool because I am the red-head near the window waving at you and would love a beer...lol. Wasn't a dick about it, just had a chuckle with the waitress once she came over.

 

I would have laughed...after I spit in your beer.

[Deadpool]

I was in a pub for around 10 minutes with my gf and no one had come over yet. Googled, then called the pub and asked if they were open. They said Yes! I said that's cool because I am the red-head near the window waving at you and would love a beer...lol. Wasn't a dick about it, just had a chuckle with the waitress once she came over.

 

Getting used to "relaxed" service down in Costa Rica has been interesting... Were I still able to drink, I'd make a point of ordering two every time the waiter came by so my glass wasn't sitting empty for 10 minutes every time...

[Deadpool]

[Terminator]

 

The broadcast team is going to be awesome this year. No Pat and no Arash Madani. Phasing Buck out.

 

The one giant mistake is on the radio side where they aren't letting Ben Wagner travel so he has to call all road games remotely. Ludicrous decision.

[The_DH]

The broadcast team is going to be awesome this year. No Pat and no Arash Madani. Phasing Buck out.

 

The one giant mistake is on the radio side where they aren't letting Ben Wagner travel so he has to call all road games remotely. Ludicrous decision.

 

Sounds like Bull Durham where the announcer worked from home stadium. All we need is somebody to tap the sticks to make it sound like a hit every now and then.

[Jonn]

Chapman extension needs to get done. Something like 4 years and 80 million sounds good. Mutual option in the 5th year to make it 100 million plus incentives.

[jerb]

[Captain_Obvious]

Chapman extension needs to get done. Something like 4 years and 80 million sounds good. Mutual option in the 5th year to make it 100 million plus incentives.

 

Not going to happen. He is a Boras client and will test free agency unless he is offered a ridiculous contract.

[Spanky99]

Not going to happen. He is a Boras client and will test free agency unless he is offered a ridiculous contract.

 

Yeah, he's clearly the best FA bat after Machado, depends if he'd like to stay in the T.Dot.

[Brownie19]

Seemed like a lot less arm injuries back then also...(note the word "seemed"). The top pitchers back then Jenkins, Seaver, Gibson, Perry Brothers, Kaat, Ryan and others threw 300+ innings without many issues.

I remember Mike Marshall the ex Expo relief pitcher who had a degree in kinesology always had an issue on how pitchers were babyed and the training was all wrong. But that was back in the 80's when I heard him talk about it. But Im sure with todays technology and advancement that this was probably proven false.

 

The issue is hitters are so much better these days. To pitch 300 innings a year, pitchers would have to throw differently and I suspect they'd get lit the f*** up against today's hitters. Some might be able to do it - the best of the best. But most would get destroyed. I mean it's easy to say "give me Maddux any day of the week" - the guys arguably the best pitcher of all time.

 

Could you imagine the Jays trying to squeeze 300 innings out of Berrios last year? Barf.

[Terminator]

 

cringe

[Stangstag]

Chapman extension needs to get done. Something like 4 years and 80 million sounds good. Mutual option in the 5th year to make it 100 million plus incentives.

 

Hard pass. Gotta start replacing some guys with internal options. Can't be paying like 10 guys 20 million per year.

 

Already have:

Springer

Berrios

Bassitt

Gausman

 

All over 30 and signed long-term. Bo and Vlad are coming up on big pay increases soon. Kirk, Varsho, Manoah are really the only cost-controlled impact players right now.

 

A Chapman extension doesn't make sense IMO, as much as I love the guy. Have to hope Barger or someone else can replace him for 2024.

[Jonn]

Hard pass. Gotta start replacing some guys with internal options. Can't be paying like 10 guys 20 million per year.

 

Already have:

Springer

Berrios

Bassitt

Gausman

 

All over 30 and signed long-term. Bo and Vlad are coming up on big pay increases soon. Kirk, Varsho, Manoah are really the only cost-controlled impact players right now.

 

A Chapman extension doesn't make sense IMO, as much as I love the guy. Have to hope Barger or someone else can replace him for 2024.

 

Or we can move one of those other deals. We still need a long term Second Baseman. That’s logically Barger.

 

I also don’t think long term both Bo and Vlad are Blue Jays.

[glory]

Hard pass. Gotta start replacing some guys with internal options. Can't be paying like 10 guys 20 million per year.

 

Already have:

Springer

Berrios

Bassitt

Gausman

 

All over 30 and signed long-term. Bo and Vlad are coming up on big pay increases soon. Kirk, Varsho, Manoah are really the only cost-controlled impact players right now.

 

A Chapman extension doesn't make sense IMO, as much as I love the guy. Have to hope Barger or someone else can replace him for 2024.

 

Agreed. As mentioned before, Chapman is a Boras client, so he's not signing an extension either way unless it's for FA type years/money, and that wouldn't make sense for the Jays. It's fine to use him for one year, hope he puts up a 5-6 WAR, and then move on. The key obviously is who replaces him. I think it's too early to give up on Orelvis but no chance I'm counting on him to be ready by 2024 even if he does bounce back, so it's really Barger or trade/free agency.

[Grant77]

The issue is hitters are so much better these days. To pitch 300 innings a year, pitchers would have to throw differently and I suspect they'd get lit the f*** up against today's hitters. Some might be able to do it - the best of the best. But most would get destroyed. I mean it's easy to say "give me Maddux any day of the week" - the guys arguably the best pitcher of all time.

 

Could you imagine the Jays trying to squeeze 300 innings out of Berrios last year? Barf.

 

Argued by who? He's top 10 so there's always a discussion to be had, but I have never seen anyone make that statement before.

[L54]

If Chapman has another year like last year he’s going to get paid and I’d rather let him walk. It would be nice if Barger shows he’s a player who can give you 2-3 WAR and go from there.

[jaysblue]

As much as I love Chapman, would rather let him walk than sign him to a huge 5-year deal. Save that money for a Vlad or Bo extension IMO.

 

Hope Barger can be a decent 3B. Also, might be able to add a 3B via trade, never count that out.

[Deadpool]

As much as I love Chapman, would rather let him walk than sign him to a huge 5-year deal. Save that money for a Vlad or Bo extension IMO.

 

Hope Barger can be a decent 3B. Also, might be able to add a 3B via trade, never count that out.

 

Do the A's happen to have a REALLY good 3B they are willing to move for some spare parts? That's worked out well in the past...

[Stangstag]

Do the A's happen to have a REALLY good 3B they are willing to move for some spare parts? That's worked out well in the past...

 

Kevin Smith??

[Stangstag]

As much as I love Chapman, would rather let him walk than sign him to a huge 5-year deal. Save that money for a Vlad or Bo extension IMO.

 

Hope Barger can be a decent 3B. Also, might be able to add a 3B via trade, never count that out.

 

Yeah that’s where I’m at. You can’t expect to retain every star player that passes through the org at some point.

 

Imagine if we had signed both Semien and Ray to long-term deals. Teo too. We’d have like 0 chance of extending Bo/Vlad.

 

Good teams like the Astros, Cardinals, Rays, etc. are willing to let guys over 30 walk in favor of replacing them with younger talent. Payroll is not infinite. Phillies and Padres for example are starting to look real icky.

[Spanky99]

If Chapman has another year like last year he’s going to get paid and I’d rather let him walk. It would be nice if Barger shows he’s a player who can give you 2-3 WAR and go from there.

 

And if Barger has another year like last year, he'll likely be on this team sometime this season. He projects well at the MLB level.

[Ehjays]

That exact topic was in the Star today. Chapman says him and his wife would love to stay but says its out of his hands.

 

https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/opinion/2023/02/19/matt-chapman-is-hoping-he-has-a-big-year-so-are-the-blue-jays-even-if-it-means-losing-him.html

 

DUNEDIN, Fla.—Matt Chapman might have more riding on the upcoming year than any player inside the Blue Jays’ clubhouse.

 

The third baseman is entering his second and possibly last season with the Jays. He is a pending free agent and one of the top players expected to be available in next year’s class.

 

That’s one of several reasons Chapman feels a sense of urgency to win now. He made two trips to the playoffs with the Oakland A’s in 2018 and 2019, yet Chapman called last year’s version of the Jays the best team he had played on. He expects the Jays to be even better this season and it’s anyone’s guess if such a good opportunity to win a World Series will come again.

 

An added benefit of the Jays’ contender status is that it will keep Chapman’s focus on the field. As a clubhouse leader, that’s never been a problem but if the Jays were to struggle, it might be easy to ignore the standings in favour of personal statistics. That shouldn’t be a problem this season, and if all goes well Chapman will put himself in position to secure a massive pay day at the end of the year, with the help of agent Scott Boras.

 

“I’m human, I know that it’s my free-agent year,” Chapman said. “It’s a big and important year, but I’ve built a pretty good resumé and know if I play every game to win, take care of business and help this team win, what happens in the off-season after this will take care of itself. That’s the outlook that I’m taking and I’m just trusting that I can go out there and play, help this team win.”

 

There were lots of fans clamouring for the Jays to sign Chapman to a long-term extension during the off-season. The three-time gold glove winner appears to be the perfect fit at third to mask some of Bo Bichette’s defensive weaknesses. His bat also possesses a ton of power, which should play up with the new dimensions at Rogers Centre.

 

But striking a new deal before Chapman hit the open market never seemed realistic for either party. By the time he joined the Jays, free agency was already within sight, and Boras is an expert at pitting teams against each other to secure top dollar. It’s extremely rare for one of his top clients to forego free agency in favour of a team-friendly deal.

 

The Jays don’t seem to have much of an issue waiting this out. Bichette recently signed a three-year deal that covers off his arbitration years and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is only going to get more expensive from here on out. The Jays are a luxury-tax-paying team, but there are limits to how much ownership is willing to spend. Their success this season, or lack thereof, will help determine the budget, which could impact how much they offer Chapman.

 

“I know the Blue Jays enjoy having me here and want to continue having me here,” Chapman said. “I know I want to continue to be here and be a part of this team. I’m sure conversations will be had along the way but, when I signed that two-year deal, I was anticipating they would have to pay Bo and Vladdy and all these young guys.

 

“So, I wasn’t sure what to expect, I was excited to get out of the arbitration system, not have to worry about that and I felt fortunate to have some security. I kind of always anticipated playing out the two years and seeing what would happen. That doesn’t mean I’m not open to what could be a possibility but that’s not all entirely up to me.”

 

Chapman is coming off a season in which he hit .229 with 27 home runs and 76 RBIs. The power combined with stellar range at third meant he finished 2022 with 4.1 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs. Only Bichette (4.5) and George Springer (4.2) were worth more.

 

Now just imagine how much better the Jays would become if Chapman rediscovered the batting stroke from earlier in his career. In 2018 and 2019, he averaged 30 homers with a .263 average and an .856 on-base-plus-slugging percentage. He finished in the top 10 in voting for the AL MVP award both years and had a combined fWAR of 12.

 

Chapman, who changed his leg kick at the plate to more of a toe tap, is hoping some mechanical adjustments will get him back to that previous form. The goal is to go the opposite way more regularly while also cutting down on his strikeouts, which hit 170 last year.

 

Beyond that, he had no complaints about his first season in Toronto.

 

“My wife and I love the city, so I think it was a best-case scenario,” Chapman said of being traded to the Jays. “We had an amazing experience last year and I think this year being more comfortable, not only with the team, but the city and getting used to customs, the ins and outs of Canada, I think we’ll have an even more enjoyable year.”

 

A big year at the plate would turn him into a lottery winner. It also would help the Jays meet their lofty expectations, which was the whole point of trading for him in the first place.

[L54]

And if Barger has another year like last year, he'll likely be on this team sometime this season. He projects well at the MLB level.

 

The other thing is a lot can change in a year. Last year at this time nobody was talking about Barger potentially being a Chapman replacement or even working his way onto the big league club. Guys can breakout or regain their footing (looking at you Orelvis) and that changes everything. No need to worry about 2024 right now.

[Laika]

Eno Sarris / The Athletic did "starting pitching ranks for 2023, with Stuff+ powered projections"

 

RANK / PLAYER / IP / ERA / K% / STUFF+ / LOCATION+

17 Kevin Gausman 179 3.19 28.1% 110 105

28 Alek Manoah 199 3.63 24.6% 100 99

47 Chris Bassitt 176 3.87 22.1% 98 102

56 Jose Berrios 176 4.00 22.9% 101 103

126 Yusei Kikuchi 115 4.15 25.5% 107 97

157 Nate Pearson 67 4.22 25.1%

172 Ricky Tiedeman

185 Mitch White 76 4.38 20.0% 95 100

189 Thomas Hatch 21 4.43 19.0% 105 97

195 Zach Thompson 41 4.64 17.7% 86 100

 

takeaways for me:

1. Kikuchi's projection works for me. Rank 126 means he projects to be an SP5.

2. Eno ranks Pearson here but I don't think Toronto is considering him as a SP at all in 2023.

3. Tiedemann is an arbitrary rank. There is no data, so no projection.

4. Zach Thompson sucks. 86 projected stuff+ is horrible.

5. White does not have good projections but with a 100 location+, he just needs SOMETHING to tick up on the stuff side to be decent. His projection is still above replacement level, though.

6. If the top 4 starters pitch to these numbers I think we will all be very happy.

7. White + Kikuchi combining these two projections in the SP5 slot would be something like 1.5 WAR.

[Orgfiller]

Eno Sarris / The Athletic did "starting pitching ranks for 2023, with Stuff+ powered projections"

 

RANK / PLAYER / IP / ERA / K% / STUFF+ / LOCATION+

17 Kevin Gausman 179 3.19 28.1% 110 105

28 Alek Manoah 199 3.63 24.6% 100 99

47 Chris Bassitt 176 3.87 22.1% 98 102

56 Jose Berrios 176 4.00 22.9% 101 103

126 Yusei Kikuchi 115 4.15 25.5% 107 97

157 Nate Pearson 67 4.22 25.1%

172 Ricky Tiedeman

185 Mitch White 76 4.38 20.0% 95 100

189 Thomas Hatch 21 4.43 19.0% 105 97

195 Zach Thompson 41 4.64 17.7% 86 100

 

takeaways for me:

1. Kikuchi's projection works for me. Rank 126 means he projects to be an SP5.

2. Eno ranks Pearson here but I don't think Toronto is considering him as a SP at all in 2023.

3. Tiedemann is an arbitrary rank. There is no data, so no projection.

4. Zach Thompson sucks. 86 projected stuff+ is horrible.

5. White does not have good projections but with a 100 location+, he just needs SOMETHING to tick up on the stuff side to be decent. His projection is still above replacement level, though.

6. If the top 4 starters pitch to these numbers I think we will all be very happy.

7. White + Kikuchi combining these two projections in the SP5 slot would be something like 1.5 WAR.

 

Is LOCATION+ some combination of in-zone rate + swinging strike rate or how else is it determined? STUFF+ seems a little more intuitive as you can probably just deduce it based on velo and movement relative to average/replacement level, with fastball taking precedent and a secondary offering being most strongly weighed.

[Laika]

Is LOCATION+ some combination of in-zone rate + swinging strike rate or how else is it determined? STUFF+ seems a little more intuitive as you can probably just deduce it based on velo and movement relative to average/replacement level, with fastball taking precedent and a secondary offering being most strongly weighed.

 

The model for location+, I believe, measures the value of a pitch based on its location at the plate.

 

Something like "sliders in this location tend to be good, and this guy throws a lot of sliders there." I think it is independent of results like SwStr.

 

I think it's a bit different than measuring command, which is "did the pitch go where he wanted it to go." Of course Command+ and Pitching+ would track, but it's theoretically possible for a pitcher to have a tendency to miss in a "good" location.