General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Grant77]

I was thinking of what awards Jays could be in line for, and I feel like only for gold gloves, the question is how many? Varsho should win for LF and I'd imagine KK would take CF. Defensive metrics still rate Chapman well at 3B, he leads all AL 3B in DRS. Kirk could get consideration at catcher as well?

 

Chapman was clearly the best 3B last year and didn't get the award. Even Orioles fans were puzzled and stunned by that one. He's got the best UZR of any primary 3B in the league, so there's that.

 

On the other hand, Lourdes and Teo are ranked 7th and 14th overall in that category when both are obviously below average still, so who the hell knows.

 

Giving any credence to defensive metrics is a fool's errand. The eye test still reigns supreme and it tells me that your thoughts are spot on. Chapman, KK, and Varsho are the best at their positions. Kirk gives up the fewest wild pitches in the game, while also being a good framer with a solid arm. Good call on that one.

[Jimcanuck]

Giving any credence to defensive metrics is a fool's errand. The eye test still reigns supreme and it tells me that your thoughts are spot on. Chapman, KK, and Varsho are the best at their positions. Kirk gives up the fewest wild pitches in the game, while also being a good framer with a solid arm. Good call on that one.

 

I used to think so too, not after reading Tom Tango's comments. The eye can't tell if another player makes the spectacular play look relatively routine. Defensive metrics take the play difficulty into account.

[Ryu In My House]

It's not just that they got swept by Texas in 4 games, they got the s*** kicked out of them.

 

Have gone 7-2 since lol

 

What a team

 

I 100% thought the season was over after the Texas sweep. I wasn't even angry, just resigned to our destiny and was starting to think about 2024.

[jaysblue]

It's not just that they got swept by Texas in 4 games, they got the s*** kicked out of them.

 

Have gone 7-2 since lol

 

What a team

 

Definitely have to give the team credit for bouncing back really strong after that Texas series. A lot of teams might have folded, but they came back to sweep Boston and have won 2 of 3 against the Yankees and Rays.

 

Nice to also roll into the WC matchup playing hot like they have been. Hope the lineup can keep this up!

[Stangstag]

 

Its for sure Romano

[Omar]

Its for sure Romano

 

Yep. The acquisition of Hicks is turning out to be profound. Nice move Ross.

[infinitebook]

Its for sure Romano

 

He's a starter though, I think maybe he was added to start the last game of the year since it most likely won't matter and the Jays will want to push back Gausman.

[Omar]

romano is made of glass, sentiment is that he is not elite enough for this team so its probably addition by subtraction anyways

 

Lot of dumb sentiment around I guess.

[John_Havok]

Its for sure Romano

 

Doesn’t really make me wonder anything, the taxi squad is there at this time of the year, doesn’t mean any injury announcement is imminent at all.

[max silver]

Chapman was clearly the best 3B last year and didn't get the award. Even Orioles fans were puzzled and stunned by that one. He's got the best UZR of any primary 3B in the league, so there's that.

 

On the other hand, Lourdes and Teo are ranked 7th and 14th overall in that category when both are obviously below average still, so who the hell knows.

 

Giving any credence to defensive metrics is a fool's errand. The eye test still reigns supreme and it tells me that your thoughts are spot on. Chapman, KK, and Varsho are the best at their positions. Kirk gives up the fewest wild pitches in the game, while also being a good framer with a solid arm. Good call on that one.

 

Chapman's advanced metrics weren't very good last season so if he were to win the gold glove it would have been solely based on reputation only. Chris Black had a detailed breakdown of Chapman's 2022 defensive season on Twitter and the conclusion was Chapman was a guy who was a solid but not great defender last season.

[Grant77]

Chapman's advanced metrics weren't very good last season so if he were to win the gold glove it would have been solely based on reputation only. Chris Black had a detailed breakdown of Chapman's 2022 defensive season on Twitter and the conclusion was Chapman was a guy who was a solid but not great defender last season.

 

Why do the metrics now tell us that he's the best third baseman in the league, when we have all watched him for 140 games and know damn well that he's the same fielder he was last year, maybe even a bit worse due to age? Last year would not have been based on reputation for anyone that watched him. The guy is clearly on a different level than everyone else. We don't need metrics to tell us that Aaron Judge has 80 grade power, in the same way that we don't need to them to tell that Chapman has 80 grade defense.

 

Why are Lourdes Gurriel Jr and Teoscar Hernandez given absolutely elite metrics when we have seen both for 500+ games and know damn well that they are awful fielders? Guys taking consistently bad routes to balls, while regularly botching routine plays is not something that takes a super scout to notice. Do you truly LGJ is on the same level as Kiermaier, as DRS says? I watched 2 games last week and he came in on a double that went over his head and dropped a catchable ball on the warning track. Nothing has changed with him, but I haven't seen KK do that a single time.

 

I don't doubt that the metrics are probably right a lot of time and have some merit when comparing players, but they are wildly inconsistent for a skill that seems to be one of the most consistent in the game. Other than rare outliers like Semien, defensive skill sees incremental gains and slow, age related declines. Kevin Pillar comes to mind as an obvious example, you could see him lose a bit each year.

 

Even different defensive metrics disagree wildly on certain players, like Gabriel Moreno having a 3 WAR difference based purely on defense.

 

I just can't buy that players go back and forth between Manny Ramirez calibre and gold glove level from year to year. You see that way, way too often for them to be completely trusted.

 

I'll continue to use metrics for players I haven't seen a lot of and a combination of that and the eye test for players that I have seen.

[max silver]

Why do the metrics now tell us that he's the best third baseman in the league, when we have all watched him for 140 games and know damn well that he's the same fielder he was last year, maybe even a bit worse due to age? Last year would not have been based on reputation for anyone that watched him. The guy is clearly on a different level than everyone else. We don't need metrics to tell us that Aaron Judge has 80 grade power, in the same way that we don't need to them to tell that Chapman has 80 grade defense.

 

Why are Lourdes Gurriel Jr and Teoscar Hernandez given absolutely elite metrics when we have seen both for 500+ games and know damn well that they are awful fielders? Guys taking consistently bad routes to balls, while regularly botching routine plays is not something that takes a super scout to notice. Do you truly LGJ is on the same level as Kiermaier, as DRS says? I watched 2 games last week and he came in on a double that went over his head and dropped a catchable ball on the warning track. Nothing has changed with him, but I haven't seen KK do that a single time.

 

I don't doubt that the metrics are probably right a lot of time and have some merit when comparing players, but they are wildly inconsistent for a skill that seems to be one of the most consistent in the game. Other than rare outliers like Semien, defensive skill sees incremental gains and slow, age related declines. Kevin Pillar comes to mind as an obvious example, you could see him lose a bit each year.

 

Even different defensive metrics disagree wildly on certain players, like Gabriel Moreno having a 3 WAR difference based purely on defense.

 

I just can't buy that players go back and forth between Manny Ramirez calibre and gold glove level from year to year. You see that way, way too often for them to be completely trusted.

 

I'll continue to use metrics for players I haven't seen a lot of and a combination of that and the eye test for players that I have seen.

 

Systems like DRS and OAA aren't perfect, but unlike your small sample of games eye test actually evaluate every defensive play a fielder makes and assigns plus or minus grades based on likely outcomes with regards to relative difficulty of these plays. Giving out gold gloves based on the eye test is simply not something that would work. Who has time to watch every single inning for every player in MLB in order to hand out these awards?

 

On the same note just because you watched a handful of games where players misplayed balls this does not somehow create a representative sample for an entire season of play. I recall Gurriel made some really nice plays against the Blue Jays in the series against the Dbacks in Toronto this season, so if I only watched those games I'd have the impression he's a great defender. Conversely Matt Chapman has had a bit of a rough month defensively since coming back from the injured list. If I were to have only watched the last few weeks of Matt Chapman innings at third base I could easily come to the conclusion that he's a bad defender at third base, but this would be far from a fair determination to make.

 

 

Gurriel is a player who had a relatively late start in the outfield, and to put it mildly it was far from a smooth transition. He's improved leaps and bounds as a defender in the outfield from the ultra shaky early days when he was still learning the position. He was a legitimately terrible defender starting out and more often than not resembled a deer in headlights when fly balls were hit his way, but he's slowly turned himself into a solid defender in left field. He's been more favorably viewed by the DRS system but a big part of that was due to OAA not factoring in throwing contributions which is his primary strength in the outfield. Once you factor in throwing Gurriel now rates as an above average defender when factoring in the total defensive contributions. On the Kiermaier comparison Gurriel doesn't rate close to as highly as Kiermaier as Gurriel is credited with 11 DRS vs Kiermaier who is credited with 17 DRS.

Edited September 25, 2023 by max silver

[Grant77]

Giving out gold gloves based on the eye test is simply not something that would work. Who has time to watch every single inning for every player in MLB in order to hand out these awards? On the same note just because you watched a handful of games where players misplayed balls this does not somehow create a representative sample for an entire season of play. I recall Gurriel made some really nice plays against the Blue Jays in the series the team and he's a guy who had a late start in the outfield relatively speaking. He's improved leaps and bounds as a defender in the outfield from the ultra shaky early days when he was still learning the position. He was a legitimately terrible defender starting out and more often than not resembled a deer in headlights when fly balls were hit his way, but he's slowly turned himself into a solid defender in left field. He's been more favorably viewed by the DRS system but a big part of that was due to OAA not factoring in throwing contributions which is his primary strength in the outfield.

 

Matt Chapman has had a bit of a rough month defensively since coming back from the injured list. If I were to have only watched the last few weeks of Matt Chapman innings at third base I could easily come to the conclusion that he's a bad defender at third base, but this would be far from a fair determination to make.

 

Systems like DRS and OAA aren't perfect, but unlike your small sample of games eye test actually evaluate every defensive play a fielder makes and assigns plus or minus grades based on likely outcomes with regards to relative difficulty of these plays. Once you factor in throwing Gurriel now rates as an above average defender when factoring in the total defensive contributions. I recall you were the guy who was touting how Gabriel Moreno was a 4+ win player which was entirely based on a suspect DRS contribution. It's starting to appear that you only use defensive metrics when it backs up your predetermined opinions of a player's defense.

 

I know how the metrics work, don't be so condescending. I'm trying to spark an interesting conversation and all you seem interested in is having a pissing match to show everyone how smart you think you are.

 

Your eyes must be brown because you are so full of s*** about LGJ. You're doing the exact thing you accuse me of, where you suit your eye test to fit the metrics. He's still an absolute butcher out there and you can see an example of it in almost every game. The notion that I can't recognize something like consistently poor jumps, bad routes, and dropped balls, but you can, is utterly ridiculous.

 

Nobody suggested giving out awards without taking metrics into account, but we do have to account for the wild swings that defensive metrics take from year to year. Even a guy like Tom Tango would admit that they are the most inconsistent and unreliable stat in the game.

 

You know who does have time to watch a lot of these players? Voters. They should absolutely use qualitative data when voting, since they are ostensibly the most qualified people to do so.

 

Mart Champan was healthy all of last year and clearly fielding at a platinum glove level. The metrics say he was average. Now you're saying that you rate him as a bad defender (lately), but the metrics say he's elite. Inconsistency and unreliability.

 

Why is DRS suspect only when it comes to Moreno? If I had a predetermined opinion from seeing a lot of him, then I would have just said so. Catchers are hard to evaluate in comparison to outfielders, at least in my opinion. I relied on the metrics to help fill in the gaps. That's exactly where they are most useful.

[max silver]

I know how the metrics work, don't be so condescending. I'm trying to spark an interesting conversation and all you seem interested in is having a pissing match to show everyone how smart you think you are.

 

Your eyes must be brown because you are so full of s*** about LGJ. You're doing the exact thing you accuse me of, where you suit your eye test to fit the metrics. He's still an absolute butcher out there and you can see an example of it in almost every game. The notion that I can't recognize something like consistently poor jumps, bad routes, and dropped balls, but you can, is utterly ridiculous.

 

Nobody suggested giving out awards without taking metrics into account, but we do have to account for the wild swings that defensive metrics take from year to year. Even a guy like Tom Tango would admit that they are the most inconsistent and unreliable stat in the game.

 

You know who does have time to watch a lot of these players? Voters. They should absolutely use qualitative data when voting, since they are ostensibly the most qualified people to do so.

 

Mart Champan was healthy all of last year and clearly fielding at a platinum glove level. The metrics say he was average. Now you're saying that you rate him as a bad defender (lately), but the metrics say he's elite. Inconsistency and unreliability.

 

Why is DRS suspect only when it comes to Moreno? If I had a predetermined opinion from seeing a lot of him, then I would have just said so. Catchers are hard to evaluate in comparison to outfielders, at least in my opinion. I relied on the metrics to help fill in the gaps. That's exactly where they are most useful.

 

We are a little out of sync here. It appears as though I edited my post while you were responding.

 

I've barely watched Gurriel play this season so I'm not going to make a full season determination of his outfield play based on watching him play a few times. All three major defensive metric systems rate him as being above average defensively this season. He's been steadily improving in each of these metrics season over season, so I really fail to see how you feel it's reasonable to rate his as an awful defender when you've likely watched him play a handful of times this season. He has rated as a slightly above average fielder in 3 of the last 4 seasons by Statcast fielding runs, I give that a helluva lot more credence than your style based evaluation. He's the type of player who will make the occasional blunder in the field but he seems to be capable of making enough high quality defensive plays to come out as an average if not better quality defender in the aggregate.

 

Your eye test is suggesting the opposite of what every single defensive metric states was the case last season with regards to Matt Chapman's season. You are letting your fandom get in the way of being objective in your evaluation. I can't find the twitter thread anymore but Chris Black performed a deep dive analysis into Chapman's 2022 defensive season and came to the conclusion that he was a player who was still a very good defender but no longer elite. He showed a player who was no longer making as many of the difficult plays that he was able to make when he was younger and in his prime. If Chapman just had a platinum glove level season his metrics would have backed this up, it appears your eyes are lying to you. For what it's worth Chapman is rated as elite by DRS and above average by OAA and UZR this season. He's simply not the quality of defender he was in his prime when he was winning platinum gloves.

 

Moreno's DRS numbers are suspect because the majority of his DRS contribution is due to him receiving the highest catcher ERA adjustment in all of MLB. I have a really hard time believing that a rookie catcher is baseball's best game caller behind the plate.

[G-Snarls]

This is the best the offense has looked all year

[Stangstag]

This is the best the offense has looked all year

 

Even with 2 big bats missing. Good time to be hot, would be very nice if they could remain hot for a few weeks.

[max silver]

This is the best the offense has looked all year

 

And it couldn't be happening at a better time either. The issues with hitting with runners in scoring position is thankfully a thing of the past, but if the team can finally start hitting with the type of power that was expected of them that's a massive development with the playoffs right around the corner.

[G-Snarls]

And it couldn't be happening at a better time either. The issues with hitting with runners in scoring position is thankfully a thing of the past, but if the team can finally start hitting with the type of power that was expected of them that's a massive development with the playoffs right around the corner.

 

My God the extra base hits!

[WryNGinger]

The front office said last year during the off-season that they wanted to put a team together that was more run prevention and closing out games oriented. That type of roster is going to rely on more small-ball production and "clutch" hitting. That is the s*** that wins world series but it is a roll-of-the-dice and we all know it and have seen it before. Once you make it to the off-season it is a flip of the coin whether you make it past each round because that's what SSS is about and because baseball.

 

f***ing baseball people....you guys all know this.

[Masterbather]

The front office said last year during the off-season that they wanted to put a team together that was more run prevention and closing out games oriented. That type of roster is going to rely on more small-ball production and "clutch" hitting. That is the s*** that wins world series but it is a roll-of-the-dice and we all know it and have seen it before. Once you make it to the off-season it is a flip of the coin whether you make it past each round because that's what SSS is about and because baseball.

 

f***ing baseball people....you guys all know this.

 

I tend to believe that frontline pitching, good defense and power is what you need to win most of the time. Didn't AA say something along these lines? I agree with him, It's tough to string together hits against good teams and good pitching. You need some guys that can just pop one from time to time and put multiple runs on the board quickly. That lack of power relative to others will hurt us I think.

 

I wouldn't say each round is a coin flip, there are reasons to have statistical favorites but you're right because they are short series anything can happen but for an underdog to win multiple series in a row is less and less likely the more series they have to play. That's why a lot of Cinderella's tend to run out of gas eventually, even if it takes to the very final series. Miami heat, Florida Panthers, Philadelphia Phillies. It's hard to finish the job as an underdog.

[Olerud363]

I tend to believe that frontline pitching, good defense and power is what you need to win most of the time. Didn't AA say something along these lines? I agree with him, It's tough to string together hits against good teams and good pitching. You need some guys that can just pop one from time to time and put multiple runs on the board quickly. That lack of power relative to others will hurt us I think.

 

I wouldn't say each round is a coin flip, there are reasons to have statistical favorites but you're right because they are short series anything can happen but for an underdog to win multiple series in a row is less and less likely the more series they have to play. That's why a lot of Cinderella's tend to run out of gas eventually, even if it takes to the very final series. Miami heat, Florida Panthers, Philadelphia Phillies. It's hard to finish the job as an underdog.

 

It's hard to say. I've been one of the most critical posters, probably irrationally so, but I've never said the team doesn't have talent. Just that there is something wrong with their "high performance/advance scouting/coaching/analytics/nutrition" team as multiple players (Guerrero, Kirk, Varsho, Manoah, Chapman since May) have under-performed to a crazy extent. They also have a (low sample size) record of failing miserably in clutch series going back to 2020. The group hasn't won a playoff game.

 

If they overcome this 'elephant on their back' if it is a real thing, no reason they don't have the talent to go on a deep run. Like if they made the playoffs, won the wild card round, I would say they overcame whatever weird x-factor was holding them back, then they'd have as good a chance of winning more series.

[BigCecil]

2020 article below on how power and not necessarily pitching/D is more important in the post season. You often hear "pitching and D wins in the playoffs" and that gets extended to small ball backers. Is it a myth?

 

I've seen a few pieces on this topic, but don't know if a really definitive analysis exists.

 

Homers are still the key to winning in playoffs

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/homers-are-still-the-key-to-winning-in-playoffs?partnerID=web_article-share

[Masterbather]

2020 article below on how power and not necessarily pitching/D is more important in the post season. You often hear "pitching and D wins in the playoffs" and that gets extended to small ball backers. Is it a myth?

 

I've seen a few pieces on this topic, but don't know if a really definitive analysis exists.

 

Homers are still the key to winning in playoffs

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/homers-are-still-the-key-to-winning-in-playoffs?partnerID=web_article-share

 

You still have to pitch well enough, but the more thunder you have the wider your margins. At the end of the day I don't think you can really win without some level of frontline pitching, you don't necessarily have to be deep, but you have to have enough to lock it down. You can't out-homer other teams if you're pitching keeps giving up homers to other teams. But yeah, you have to have thunder.

[Masterbather]

It's hard to say. I've been one of the most critical posters, probably irrationally so, but I've never said the team doesn't have talent. Just that there is something wrong with their "high performance/advance scouting/coaching/analytics/nutrition" team as multiple players (Guerrero, Kirk, Varsho, Manoah, Chapman since May) have under-performed to a crazy extent. They also have a (low sample size) record of failing miserably in clutch series going back to 2020. The group hasn't won a playoff game.

 

If they overcome this 'elephant on their back' if it is a real thing, no reason they don't have the talent to go on a deep run. Like if they made the playoffs, won the wild card round, I would say they overcame whatever weird x-factor was holding them back, then they'd have as good a chance of winning more series.

 

Yeah but to go all the way they just don't hit for a lot of power, and I don't see that changing much without a change of personnel. Other teams just have more of it. On the flip side, the starting pitching is good, it's deep, but outside of Gausman, their advanced stats have them projected more as number three or four starters. If you're going to lose the power game, you have to definitively win the pitching game. The gap between Toronto's top three is not wide enough over other teams' top 3, in some cases other teams have a better top three. Bullpen is a strength. In most series' they would have an advantage here, but that's just not enough. A lot of domino's would have to fall their way.

[JaysAllMighty]

[Brownie19]

Aren't the pitches where the circle is filled in actually considered strikes? It's a ball when the circle remains empty. That's a s***** video.

 

I have to think Biggio is #2 in baseball - or at least Top 5.

[Stangstag]

2020 article below on how power and not necessarily pitching/D is more important in the post season. You often hear "pitching and D wins in the playoffs" and that gets extended to small ball backers. Is it a myth?

 

I've seen a few pieces on this topic, but don't know if a really definitive analysis exists.

 

Homers are still the key to winning in playoffs

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/homers-are-still-the-key-to-winning-in-playoffs?partnerID=web_article-share

 

Anyone that watches the playoffs knows this. Almost all the big games in the last 10 years have been decided by homeruns

[Brownie19]

Anyone that watches the playoffs knows this. Almost all the big games in the last 10 years have been decided by homeruns

 

I mean - if you ask Buck Martinez, I think there's a 90% chance he says pitching & defense wins championships...

[BigCecil]

Anyone that watches the playoffs knows this. Almost all the big games in the last 10 years have been decided by homeruns

 

I do and my eyes and brain say 100%. Wondered if anyone had seen some analysis thats definitive on incremental value. Might be tough. Its still such a commonly stated misperception "pitching and D wins in the playoffs". Smash the bombs!

 

Just the last few years alone you think of Soler, Howie Kendrick oppo off the foul pole for 3 runs for Nats, Harper and Schwarber, Arozarena, Betts, Alvarez and Altuve etc etc.

[Terminator]

The rotation is setting up nicely for the playoffs.

 

Gausman vs. King

Berrios vs. Cole

Bassitt vs. Weaver

Ryu vs. Littell

Kikuchi vs. Bradley

Gausman vs. Rays

 

Good chance we will have clinched by that final game so Gausman's last start can be skipped and we can head right into a Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt turn in the WC Round. Gausman will have an extra day of rest too which usually makes him even more effective.