General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[jaysblue]

I wouldn't be thrilled, but yeah 2/25 would be within non-vomitous parameters

 

I think 2/25 brings him back for sure if he likes it here and it's pretty fair if he continues to be a 3 WAR player.

[Olerud363]

In 2021, remember the Jays played in minor league parks for 2/3 of their season. Someone made that point when talking about Vlad last year, forget who.

 

Minor league parks aren't smaller, Dunnedin and Buffalo are pretty generic dimensions

 

Maybe something psychological though... he has hit like a legend in minor league parks (in both the minors and majors) so maybe something about the 2 decks is getting in his head.

[Olerud363]

Vladimir Hosmer

 

Poor Vladdy. At one point he was battling Tristan Cassas and Ryan Noda for the 25th best 1st basemen in baseball trying to get above 1 WAR. But they have both left him in the dust on their way to 2 WAR with Vladding stuck near 0.

 

Good news is Hosmer is at -0.5 or so WAR, so if Vladdy can just keep his head above of water, keep around 0 WAR, even though he has no chance to crack the top 30 1b men, or battle Casas and Noda, he can beat Hosmer as long as he doesn't dip drastically negative.

[keggy]

Vlad has earned every bit of this criticism

[BlueBaller]

Hopefully the media starts to criticize Vlad and he actually takes it to heart and changes.

[hanton]

Hopefully the media starts to criticize Vlad and he actually takes it to heart and changes.

 

You forgot, a few years ago with his weight - media was all over it

[BlueBaller]

You forgot, a few years ago with his weight - media was all over it

That's true. They need to pick it back up.

[Spanky99]

I think 2/25 brings him back for sure if he likes it here and it's pretty fair if he continues to be a 3 WAR player.

 

A 3 Win player and 12.5M doesn't compute, you guys are selling him short I believe, about 5M I think. I'd love him back at 25M.

[JFD]

In 2021, remember the Jays played in minor league parks for 2/3 of their season. Someone made that point when talking about Vlad last year, forget who.

 

The thing that I don't get about this argument.. It's not like he was just barely clearing the wall in the minor league parks. He was mashing dingers that would clear any stadium . Is it all mental? Do minor league parks have a better batting eye? Was he in better shape for that season? He did seem to work his ass off in the offseason prior to his monster season. Did he abandon that workout plan? So many questions...

[Spanky99]

The thing that I don't get about this argument.. It's not like he was just barely clearing the wall in the minor league parks. He was mashing dingers that would clear any stadium . Is it all mental? Do minor league parks have a better batting eye? Was he in better shape for that season? He did seem to work his ass off in the offseason prior to his monster season. Did he abandon that workout plan? So many questions...

 

Here's what Mr. ZIPS thought about it and he's right, the playing in a AAA park is BS...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/assessing-the-blue-jays-fancy-new-digs/

[Stangstag]

The thing that I don't get about this argument.. It's not like he was just barely clearing the wall in the minor league parks. He was mashing dingers that would clear any stadium . Is it all mental? Do minor league parks have a better batting eye? Was he in better shape for that season? He did seem to work his ass off in the offseason prior to his monster season. Did he abandon that workout plan? So many questions...

 

Maybe he just hates Canada

[mphenhef]

Vlad has earned every bit of this criticism

 

It was honestly refreshing to hear the Apple TV commentators speak about him without the rose coloured glasses our announcers have on for him.

[Olerud363]

The thing that I don't get about this argument.. It's not like he was just barely clearing the wall in the minor league parks. He was mashing dingers that would clear any stadium . Is it all mental? Do minor league parks have a better batting eye? Was he in better shape for that season? He did seem to work his ass off in the offseason prior to his monster season. Did he abandon that workout plan? So many questions...

 

 

There is a huge amount of evidence that he hits f***ing hall of fame level in minor league parks and almost replacement level in major league parks.

 

His performances as teenager in minor league parks in the real minor leagues are historic, greatest we've ever seen, there's never been anything like. He hit .400 in aa for christ's sakes. He damaged low a and high a as an 18 year old.

 

His performance in minor league parks as a major leaguer is also f***ing unbelievable. Frank Thomas in his prime with more power. Albert Pujols in his MVP season. He's like a f***ing .340 .440 .700 hitter or something in Sahlen and Dunnedin. And it's nothing to do with the dimensions.

 

If AA was still in charge I feel he'd dedicate incredible resources to solving the mystery of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Maybe it is a mental block or anxiety that he gets with the big crowds and the two decks. When he chilled and relaxed in the minor parks his numbers indicate he is one of the greatest of all time, otherwise he is Josh Bell's weakling brother sub-replacement, Eric Hosmer (not young Eric Hosmer but old).

[John_Havok]

A 3 Win player and 12.5M doesn't compute, you guys are selling him short I believe, about 5M I think. I'd love him back at 25M.

 

Yeah, but the last thing the Jays want to do is pay a 35 year old the going market rate for a 3+ WAR player(he’s on track to push 4 by seasons end…) when he projects more like a 1.5 WAR player. He’s babip regression away from being average to slightly below average without considering the possibility of other skills taking a slight step back as well.

 

2/25 with a third year team option would be my absolute ceiling

[Brownie19]

Yeah, but the last thing the Jays want to do is pay a 35 year old the going market rate for a 3+ WAR player(he’s on track to push 4 by seasons end…) when he projects more like a 1.5 WAR player. He’s babip regression away from being average to slightly below average without considering the possibility of other skills taking a slight step back as well.

 

2/25 with a third year team option would be my absolute ceiling

 

I agree with this. Very tough to expect Whit to be anything more than a 1.5 - 2 WAR player moving forward. There's obviously a possibility he can repeat, but I suspect it's down in the 10-20% range.

[Spanky99]

Yeah, but the last thing the Jays want to do is pay a 35 year old the going market rate for a 3+ WAR player(he’s on track to push 4 by seasons end…) when he projects more like a 1.5 WAR player. He’s babip regression away from being average to slightly below average without considering the possibility of other skills taking a slight step back as well.

 

2/25 with a third year team option would be my absolute ceiling

 

Okay, I'm aware, but he's showing no signs of regression in his speed or defense and he's taking max he gets offered, 2/25 seems to be a pipedream, 2nd baseman are thin as f*** in the MLB. That's all I'm getting at.

[Brownie19]

Okay, I'm aware, but he's showing no signs of regression in his speed or defense and he's taking max he gets offered, 2/25 seems to be a pipedream, 2nd baseman are thin as f*** in the MLB. That's all I'm getting at.

 

This is also true. When you combine both facts, the probability that he'll re-sign with the Jays is pretty low unfortunately.

[jaysblue]

A 3 Win player and 12.5M doesn't compute, you guys are selling him short I believe, about 5M I think. I'd love him back at 25M.

 

His age is the deterrent Jay. It's not like he's in his late 20's or early 30's. So that impacts some of his value and new contract. There is a chance for some regression where he goes down to become a 2 or 1.5 WAR guy.

[Laika]

Brandon Drury had a 3 WAR season at age 30 and only got 2/$17M

 

Profar was 2.5 WAR at 30 and barely got an MLB deal. $7M I think.

 

Turner, Pederson, Carpenter all had big old guy years in 2022 and none got $25M. They got 2/20, 2/12, 2/22

 

 

 

I don't see any need to give Merrifield a bag of money. There will be other options. Try to get him to take a nice little 2 year deal, sure, but don't bid against yourself.

[jaysblue]

Okay, I'm aware, but he's showing no signs of regression in his speed or defense and he's taking max he gets offered, 2/25 seems to be a pipedream, 2nd baseman are thin as f*** in the MLB. That's all I'm getting at.

 

Yeah no doubt he'll take the highest offer he gets. There could be a team that offers something even better than 2/25 but doubt there would be many.

 

Reminds me a lot when Marco Scutaro became a FA. He was a veteran coming off a 4.3 WAR season at the age of 33 with the Blue Jays. Signed a two-year/12.5M contract with Boston and then afterwards signed a one year deal with the Rockies in 2012 and a three-year deal with the Giants in 2013 for 20M. Obviously given how contracts have increased over the last decade, Merrifield probably sits anywhere from 10-12M per season over 2-3 years.

[jaysblue]

Brandon Drury had a 3 WAR season at age 30 and only got 2/$17M

 

Profar was 2.5 WAR at 30 and barely got an MLB deal. $7M I think.

 

Turner, Pederson, Carpenter all had big old guy years in 2022 and none got $25M. They got 2/20, 2/12, 2/22

 

 

 

I don't see any need to give Merrifield a bag of money. There will be other options. Try to get him to take a nice little 2 year deal, sure, but don't bid against yourself.

 

Yeah agree. This always happens with Blue Jays players who are having resurgent years and when they become FAs. You don't want to bid against yourself. Like even a couple of weeks ago, I think someone was even asking or suggesting if the Jays should offer Merrifield a QO at 18M haha.

 

Merrifield has had a nice season and definitely deserves to be rewarded for it. But he isn't getting a huge contract like 3 years/40-45M at his age. He's reasonable at 2/20 or 2/25. If he asks for anymore, Jays should just move on.

[Spanky99]

This is also true. When you combine both facts, the probability that he'll re-sign with the Jays is pretty low unfortunately.

 

Very low, I think, unless he's cool with taking a hit to stay a Jay, I don't see it. Jays likely go internally with Schneider or Barger.

[Spanky99]

His age is the deterrent Jay. It's not like he's in his late 20's or early 30's. So that impacts some of his value and new contract. There is a chance for some regression where he goes down to become a 2 or 1.5 WAR guy.

 

He'll get 2/30 with a team option/buyout. Heard it here first.

[jaysblue]

He'll get 2/30 with a team option/buyout. Heard it here first.

 

Yeah high end he gets 2/30 or 3/45 if a team is really crazy. If that's the case, Blue Jays should just let him walk and fill his spot internally or go after another utility guy.

[The Cats Ass]

Brandon Drury had a 3 WAR season at age 30 and only got 2/$17M

 

Profar was 2.5 WAR at 30 and barely got an MLB deal. $7M I think.

 

Turner, Pederson, Carpenter all had big old guy years in 2022 and none got $25M. They got 2/20, 2/12, 2/22

 

 

 

I don't see any need to give Merrifield a bag of money. There will be other options. Try to get him to take a nice little 2 year deal, sure, but don't bid against yourself.

 

I think Merrifield gets close to $15 on a multi year deal. He'll pass 3 WAR, and has been consistent. A lot of the guys you mentioned have some negative WAR years. Turner is a close comparable, age/history wise, he went into FA with a 2.4 WAR year. He ended up with what more realistically is a 1 year 16M contract. He has player option for 13.4M or can take a 6.7M buyout. Unless he suffers an injury between now and the end of season he probably opts out. I'm on the fence on offering Merrifield a QO.

[Laika]

I think Merrifield gets close to $15 on a multi year deal. He'll pass 3 WAR, and has been consistent. A lot of the guys you mentioned have some negative WAR years. Turner is a close comparable, age/history wise, he went into FA with a 2.4 WAR year. He ended up with what more realistically is a 1 year 16M contract. He has player option for 13.4M or can take a 6.7M buyout. Unless he suffers an injury between now and the end of season he probably opts out. I'm on the fence on offering Merrifield a QO.

 

I could definitely see a behind-the-times team like the Red Sox overpaying Merrifield... sure

[L54]

I wouldn’t touch him at 15M/year. I’d rather have that 18M mutual option than 3/45

[jaysblue]

I think Merrifield gets close to $15 on a multi year deal. He'll pass 3 WAR, and has been consistent. A lot of the guys you mentioned have some negative WAR years. Turner is a close comparable, age/history wise, he went into FA with a 2.4 WAR year. He ended up with what more realistically is a 1 year 16M contract. He has player option for 13.4M or can take a 6.7M buyout. Unless he suffers an injury between now and the end of season he probably opts out. I'm on the fence on offering Merrifield a QO.

 

Turner was also a consistent 4-5 WAR player before 2022 and actually hit for some power, whereas Merrifield has been more of a contact/speed guy throughout his career. I don't think they're the greatest comparisons player wise, but definitely Turner's contract could be a benchmark.

 

I think if there is a team that overpays, Merrifield will get close to 15M over 2 or 3 years. Ideally he's better around 10-12M if you could sign him for that.

[jaysblue]

I wouldn’t touch him at 15M/year. I’d rather have that 18M mutual option than 3/45

 

I agree I wouldn't go more than 2 years on Merrifield, though as well wouldn't pick up that mutual option at 18M.

 

18M for one year is a lot for a player like Merrifield and that money IMO could be better utilized towards a better player or pitcher. The Jays have to replace Chapman at third base, Belt at DH, KK in the OF, Ryu in the rotation, some BP pieces like Hicks, along with guys like Vladdy, Bo and others making more through arbitration.

 

Hope that the Jays could fill Merrifield's spot internally or Atkins can swing a trade or FA signing for a utility/multi-position guy who could give you around 400 ABs and provide 2 WAR.

Edited August 15, 2023 by jaysblue

[Spanky99]

I agree I wouldn't go more than 2 years on Merrifield, though as well wouldn't pick up that mutual option at 18M.

 

18M for one year is a lot for a player like Merrifield and that money IMO could be better utilized towards a better player or pitcher. The Jays have to replace Chapman at third base, Belt at DH, KK in the OF, Kikuchi & Ryu in the rotation, some BP pieces like Hicks, along with guys like Vladdy, Bo and others making more through arbitration.

 

 

Kooch?