General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[BigCecil]

Jays are lucky their starting 5 have been pretty much healthy to this point.

 

Imagine losing one or two of Gausman, Bassitt or Berrios to the IL for an extended period of time.

 

It amazes me where Yanks and the Rays are with all their injuries this season. Yanks have 36 W's. On a relative basis we have been very lucky.

 

Judge (missed a few gms) putting up a 188 wRC+ cures a lot of ills.

 

Also, TEX is for real.

[jaysblue]

It amazes me where Yanks and the Rays are with all their injuries this season. Yanks have 36 W's. On a relative basis we have been very lucky.

 

Judge (missed a few gms) putting up a 188 wRC+ cures a lot of ills.

 

Also, TEX is for real.

 

Yeah good points. Yankees were without Judge for a bit. Stanton has missed a lot of time but back now. Rodon has missed the entire season to date. Cortes is now on the IL. But yet, they look like in good shape.

 

Rangers have been great and that's without deGrom. Can't believe there are some posters out there who think the Rangers aren't for real.

 

Jays for the most part have been relatively healthy to start the season and no major injuries. Yet, they've had their struggles and haven't looked Postseason worthy. Imagine if this team loses a star player to the IL for an extended period of time, how bad things could get!

[Stangstag]

Yeah good points. Yankees were without Judge for a bit. Stanton has missed a lot of time but back now. Rodon has missed the entire season to date. Cortes is now on the IL. But yet, they look like in good shape.

 

Rangers have been great and that's without deGrom. Can't believe there are some posters out there who think the Rangers aren't for real.

 

Jays for the most part have been relatively healthy to start the season and no major injuries. Yet, they've had their struggles and haven't looked Postseason worthy. Imagine if this team loses a star player to the IL for an extended period of time, how bad things could get!

 

Have you checked strength of schedule at all??

 

Rangers have literally had the easiest SoS in the majors so far, and have the 4th hardest going forward. They will fall off. Seattle will finish ahead of them.

[jaysblue]

Have you checked strength of schedule at all??

 

Rangers have literally had the easiest SoS in the majors so far, and have the 4th hardest going forward. They will fall off. Seattle will finish ahead of them.

 

Seattle has been such a huge disappointment this season and their lineup has sucked.

 

I'll easily bet you $20 that the Rangers finish ahead of the Mariners.

[Stangstag]

Seattle has been such a huge disappointment this season and their lineup has sucked.

 

I'll easily bet you $20 that the Rangers finish ahead of the Mariners.

 

I'll take that bet if you want it

[Grant77]

Seattle has been such a huge disappointment this season and their lineup has sucked.

 

I'll easily bet you $20 that the Rangers finish ahead of the Mariners.

 

Seattle has lost a little bit of power from last year, but it's essentially the same type of offense. No one in their right mind should have expected them to have sustained success with a roster that is ridiculously prone to strikeouts.

 

We should probably look at last year as an anomaly, given that the Mariners have only produced 3 above average offenses (by wRC+) in the last 20 seasons.

[Stangstag]

Seattle has lost a little bit of power from last year, but it's essentially the same type of offense. No one in their right mind should have expected them to have sustained success with a roster that is ridiculously prone to strikeouts.

 

We should probably look at last year as an anomaly, given that the Mariners have only produced 3 above average offenses (by wRC+) in the last 20 seasons.

 

I see a lot of guys in that lineup underperforming, probably a good bet their offense will be better for the remainder of the season.

 

Teo, Suarez, Wong, Julio all have the capacity to hit much better than their current numbers. Wong has been an absolute disaster for them so far. Pollock is probably projected to be better too.

 

Plus I definitely see them making a big splash at the deadline like they did last year.

[Laika]

I see a lot of guys in that lineup underperforming, probably a good bet their offense will be better for the remainder of the season.

 

Teo, Suarez, Wong, Julio all have the capacity to hit much better than their current numbers. Wong has been an absolute disaster for them so far. Pollock is probably projected to be better too.

 

Plus I definitely see them making a big splash at the deadline like they did last year.

 

Rodriguez should be better

On the flip side, Kelenic is way better than expected

 

Suarez is playing exactly like he did before Seattle acquired him. His 2022 may have been a dead cat bounce.

 

Wong is a 32 year old infielder with some fringe tools. Sometimes they just die overnight.

Pollock is ancient.

 

I would expect a big second half from Teoscar.

[Eat My Shatkins]

The Rangers have the best run differential in the league right now.

 

I don't think they are this good and will drop off at some point, but they look like a playoff team to me. Didn't they just sweep the M's? And like pretty much kick the s*** out them in the process.

[Grant77]

I see a lot of guys in that lineup underperforming, probably a good bet their offense will be better for the remainder of the season.

 

Teo, Suarez, Wong, Julio all have the capacity to hit much better than their current numbers. Wong has been an absolute disaster for them so far. Pollock is probably projected to be better too.

 

Plus I definitely see them making a big splash at the deadline like they did last year.

 

I'll give you J-Rod and Teo, but I wouldn't expect much more from Suarez and Wong. I see both as poor hitters on the wrong side of 30.

 

Kelenic has been below average since his scorching start in April. I don't see a lot in his profile to suggest he'll turn it around.

 

If I had to bet, I would definitely expect more of the same from the team as a whole. Ty France is their only hitter who has shown any kind of consistency.

[jaysblue]

I'll take that bet if you want it

 

Perfect!

[jaysblue]

Gausman tied for 2nd with Eovaldi in the MLB with a 2.7 WAR.

 

Gerrit Cole and Shane McClanahan, both considered AL Cy Young front runners, both have a 1.5 WAR.

[polar bear]

The Blue Jays can't afford to be running out Manoah anymore. He's already cost them so many games. This is Josh Towers 2006 level of embarrassment.

 

Faulty Towers pops his head above the surface once more.

[Stangstag]

I'll give you J-Rod and Teo, but I wouldn't expect much more from Suarez and Wong. I see both as poor hitters on the wrong side of 30.

 

Kelenic has been below average since his scorching start in April. I don't see a lot in his profile to suggest he'll turn it around.

 

If I had to bet, I would definitely expect more of the same from the team as a whole. Ty France is their only hitter who has shown any kind of consistency.

 

Just look at the ROS projections and both (Suarez/Wong) are pretty far off.

 

Idk why you’d say you agree with Teo’s but not theirs

[glory]

The Rangers have the best run differential in the league right now.

 

I don't think they are this good and will drop off at some point, but they look like a playoff team to me. Didn't they just sweep the M's? And like pretty much kick the s*** out them in the process.

 

Agreed. The Rangers aren't as good as their RD says they are, but still look like a WC team assuming the Astros eventually take the lead in the West. They have legit star vetrin players (Semien, Seager) along with a solid group of position players around them, and they took the Jays approach of overpaying FA SP's to avoid having to develop them and those SPs are all doing well.

 

I mean, the Rangers pretty much have to fall off for the Jays WC chances to improve, but I wouldn't say it is a certainty that they regress enough to not be a factor. You don't fluke into the RD they have, easier schedule or not.

[Stangstag]

Agreed. The Rangers aren't as good as their RD says they are, but still look like a WC team assuming the Astros eventually take the lead in the West. They have legit star vetrin players (Semien, Seager) along with a solid group of position players around them, and they took the Jays approach of overpaying FA SP's to avoid having to develop them and those SPs are all doing well.

 

I mean, the Rangers pretty much have to fall off for the Jays WC chances to improve, but I wouldn't say it is a certainty that they regress enough to not be a factor. You don't fluke into the RD they have, easier schedule or not.

 

The offense is legit but I can see their pitching taking a nosedive. It really hinges on the health of Eovaldi and DeGrom. Gray and Perez have been extremely lucky/overperforming and Heaney is just ok.

[Slade]

Manoah sent down. Francis up.

 

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Manoah has been optioned to the Florida complex league.

[John_Havok]

Just as I thought. No point going to Buffalo. Get him straight to the complex to get that performance team on his video

[John_Havok]

May's position player contributions

 

[Stangstag]

May's position player contributions

 

 

Belt and Keirmaier the best hitters on the team, just as we all expected

[AMS528]

Vlad doesn't really deserve his current numbers. Just glancing over it but his hitting profile this year is way closer to 2021 than 2022. Like he's barreling it, he's hitting it in the air, his hard hit percentage is higher. The results aren't there, but that's bad luck. He's doing the things he should be.

[AMS528]

The Blue Jays can't afford to be running out Manoah anymore. He's already cost them so many games. This is Josh Towers 2006 level of embarrassment.

 

In non Josh Towers starts that year we were on a 93 win pace. Second best offense in the AL and pretty solid pitching outside of him. We were 3-12 in those starts. 84-63 otherwise. That was a really good team.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Vlad doesn't really deserve his current numbers. Just glancing over it but his hitting profile this year is way closer to 2021 than 2022. Like he's barreling it, he's hitting it in the air, his hard hit percentage is higher. The results aren't there, but that's bad luck. He's doing the things he should be.

 

Honestly his Savant page looks pretty similar in 2023 compared to 2022. Actually 2023, 2022, and 2021 all look fairly similar but his chase rate was better in 2021. I don’t know what to think.

[John_Havok]

Vlad doesn't really deserve his current numbers. Just glancing over it but his hitting profile this year is way closer to 2021 than 2022. Like he's barreling it, he's hitting it in the air, his hard hit percentage is higher. The results aren't there, but that's bad luck. He's doing the things he should be.

 

Vlad's numbers are purely the product of poor swing decisions. He has the talent to put the bat on any ball in or near the strike zone and hit it harder than most. As a result, his brain tells him to swing at pitches that he shouldn't be swinging at. Sure he can still make harder contact on that pitch 2 or 3 inches outside, or inside, but he's putting those balls in play when he should be taking them for balls. Look at his walk rate plummetting, he's getting every opportunity to put himself at 1B via the walk and just wont do it because there's something in his brain that tells him he has to swing at something he can make contact with.

 

The secondary problem is that he keeps getting just enough positive results on those crappy swing decisions that he keeps doing it, even though it's really not all that positive. The HR he hit on that pitch in the last game of the Mets series... way up and in at the upper and innermost corner of the strike zone. he shouldnt have swung at that pitch. Yes, he hit a HR this time, but how mnay pitches in that area has he actually done damage on this season or his career? not many. That one positive result is going to keep his brain swinging at that crap and the next 25 times he does, the results will probably not be good.

[jaysblue]

I hope the pitching lab works for Manoah!

[jaysblue]

In non Josh Towers starts that year we were on a 93 win pace. Second best offense in the AL and pretty solid pitching outside of him. We were 3-12 in those starts. 84-63 otherwise. That was a really good team.

 

Yup, in 2006 the Jays put together a real good team despite being in a tough AL East when the Yankees and Red Sox were dominating and at the time when there was only one WC team. They won 87 games that season, but like you said, running Towers out there definitely cost them a lot of games. Even Chacin wasn't that good in 2006. They were 8.0 GB of the Detroit Tigers for the Wild Card. White Sox and Angels were ahead of them.

 

Would be a shame if the Jays win 87 or 88 games this season, though fall short of a Wild Card because of the way Alex Manoah pitched. Could be the difference between the Jays making and not making the Postseason.

[max silver]

Vlad's numbers are purely the product of poor swing decisions. He has the talent to put the bat on any ball in or near the strike zone and hit it harder than most. As a result, his brain tells him to swing at pitches that he shouldn't be swinging at. Sure he can still make harder contact on that pitch 2 or 3 inches outside, or inside, but he's putting those balls in play when he should be taking them for balls. Look at his walk rate plummetting, he's getting every opportunity to put himself at 1B via the walk and just wont do it because there's something in his brain that tells him he has to swing at something he can make contact with.

 

The secondary problem is that he keeps getting just enough positive results on those crappy swing decisions that he keeps doing it, even though it's really not all that positive. The HR he hit on that pitch in the last game of the Mets series... way up and in at the upper and innermost corner of the strike zone. he shouldnt have swung at that pitch. Yes, he hit a HR this time, but how mnay pitches in that area has he actually done damage on this season or his career? not many. That one positive result is going to keep his brain swinging at that crap and the next 25 times he does, the results will probably not be good.

 

He's obviously cut from the same mold as his father where he can do damage on pitches he has no business swinging at. He and Bo are each very good bad ball hitters who have the inherent talent to be among baseball's best with just a smidgeon better plate discipline.

[Stangstag]

He's obviously cut from the same mold as his father where he can do damage on pitches he has no business swinging at. He and Bo are each very good bad ball hitters who have the inherent talent to be among baseball's best with just a smidgeon better plate discipline.

 

Trouble is that he CANT do damage on bad pitches. He can make contact on pretty much anything, but he’s swinging at too many bad pitches and not barreling those.

[Stangstag]

The offense is legit but I can see their pitching taking a nosedive. It really hinges on the health of Eovaldi and DeGrom. Gray and Perez have been extremely lucky/overperforming and Heaney is just ok.

 

Aaaaaand DeGrom is done for the year (and probably next)