General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[BigCecil]

Varsho still the better trade there IMO, Bryan Reynolds had 3 years left vs Varsho’s 4, and Kirk is better than Moreno

 

Kirk's valuable, but I don't think he is better than Moreno overall.

 

Moreno's bat has been improving. Still not much pop and surprised at how little he BBs. His D has been solid. I think he has thrown out something like 70% of base runners attempted steal. So far he has been worth more WAR than Kirk. Longer term I think he is definitely a better bet for a few reasons including fitness/control.

[Orgfiller]

It's not a good look for this regime when after 7 years, 4 of the 10 keepers are from the previous regime and Biggio, Espinal and Pearson are 3 of your 6.

 

It's not always a one to one comparison like this though. Not everyone that isn't a keeper was signed through free agency or drafted by the FO.

 

Gabriel Moreno was signed and developed by this regime, as was LGJ and that turned into Varsho who is a core piece moving forward. Guys from the previous regime like Drew Hutchison got turned into Francisco Liriano who turned into Teoscar, who was a part of the previous core and gave them good years before turning into Erik Swanson, good + controllable and part of the current "core" (if you can call any reliever part of a core).

 

Matt Chapman has been a key piece of the roster for 2 seasons and was acquired for a number of guys (since turned into garbage) that were signed and developed by the FO. Zach Pop and Mitch White are young (ish) controllable pitchers who could still contribute, also acquired for prospects.

[glory]

Kirk's valuable, but I don't think he is better than Moreno overall.

 

Moreno's bat has been improving. Still not much pop and surprised at how little he BBs. His D has been solid. I think he has thrown out something like 70% of base runners attempted steal. So far he has been worth more WAR than Kirk. Longer term I think he is definitely a better bet for a few reasons including fitness/control.

 

Yeah, Kirk's ISO in his last 400 PA dating back to last season is .082 and wRC+ at 101. He was great in April-June 2022, but then fell off big time and hasn't rebounded. It's early and he's still young, so he could easily bounce back, but considering his weight and the fact that he's the slowest man on earth, I'm not sure him vs. Moreno moving forward is going to be a slam dunk unless Kirk's 2021-first half 2022 power comes back. Who is better for 2024-beyond is probably debatable, especially if Moreno develops even a little bit of pop. Of course if first half 2022 Kirk comes back, then it's a different story.

[max silver]

Yeah, Kirk's ISO in his last 400 PA dating back to last season is .082 and wRC+ at 101. He was great in April-June 2022, but then fell off big time and hasn't rebounded. It's early and he's still young, so he could easily bounce back, but considering his weight and the fact that he's the slowest man on earth, I'm not sure him vs. Moreno moving forward is going to be a slam dunk unless Kirk's 2021-first half 2022 power comes back. Who is better for 2024-beyond is probably debatable, especially if Moreno develops even a little bit of pop. Of course if first half 2022 Kirk comes back, then it's a different story.

 

Kirk still manages to be an above average offensive contributor despite the lack of power given his elite bat to ball skills and strike zone awareness. Historically he has hit the ball a lot harder than his last half season or thereabouts so hopefully he will start squaring up baseballs more frequently as there is decent raw power hiding in his sizeable frame. I don't think it's a slam dunk that Moreno is going to be better for the next few years given the fact that Moreno doesn't appear to be a great defender yet aside from his throwing skills, both his blocking and receiving/framing appear to need some improvement.

[jaysblue]

Kirk really only had two standout months in 2022. All his power came in the month of May and June, otherwise he was awful offensively. He's still getting on-base this season at a high clip which is a plus, though I think many posters on this board overhyped him. I still think he'll end up being a great hitter for the Jays and still think he can turn it around. If he doesn't hit for any power though, he likely is a low .700 OPS type of bat.

 

He's still young enough to improve though I do think longer term Moreno is the better option. I think Moreno can develop some more power in 2-3 years, like how Realmuto did at the start of his career with the Marlins. Though given the Jays situation, I understand why they kept Kirk over Moreno and have no issue with that. As well, who knows if the Dbacks preferred Moreno over Kirk anyways.

[Orgfiller]

Kirk really only had two standout months in 2022. All his power came in the month of May and June, otherwise he was awful offensively. He's still getting on-base this season at a high clip which is a plus, though I think many posters on this board overhyped him. I still think he'll end up being a great hitter for the Jays and still think he can turn it around. If he doesn't hit for any power though, he likely is a low .700 OPS type of bat.

 

He's still young enough to improve though I do think longer term Moreno is the better option. I think Moreno can develop some more power in 2-3 years, like how Realmuto did at the start of his career with the Marlins. Though given the Jays situation, I understand why they kept Kirk over Moreno and have no issue with that. As well, who knows if the Dbacks preferred Moreno over Kirk anyways.

 

At no point in his career has Kirk been "awful offensively". A catcher who's league average offensively at his worst is a guy every team in the league would take, not to mention how much offensive upside he actually does have. He has elite bat to ball skills, a great eye, and has displayed power previously, he's just in a funk right now hitting too many groundballs. Once he fixes his swing again he'll be a force in our lineup. Moreno has more upside overall because of his athleticism meaning he can provide plus defense and average baserunning, but in no way does he have better hitting potential than Kirk who has hit his whole life, minors and majors.

[Stangstag]

Kirk really only had two standout months in 2022. All his power came in the month of May and June, otherwise he was awful offensively. He's still getting on-base this season at a high clip which is a plus, though I think many posters on this board overhyped him. I still think he'll end up being a great hitter for the Jays and still think he can turn it around. If he doesn't hit for any power though, he likely is a low .700 OPS type of bat.

 

He's still young enough to improve though I do think longer term Moreno is the better option. I think Moreno can develop some more power in 2-3 years, like how Realmuto did at the start of his career with the Marlins. Though given the Jays situation, I understand why they kept Kirk over Moreno and have no issue with that. As well, who knows if the Dbacks preferred Moreno over Kirk anyways.

 

Yall are crazy, Kirk is still projecting for 120ish wRC+ and near .800 OPS for the rest of the season

[max silver]

Kirk really only had two standout months in 2022. All his power came in the month of May and June, otherwise he was awful offensively. He's still getting on-base this season at a high clip which is a plus, though I think many posters on this board overhyped him. I still think he'll end up being a great hitter for the Jays and still think he can turn it around. If he doesn't hit for any power though, he likely is a low .700 OPS type of bat.

 

He's still young enough to improve though I do think longer term Moreno is the better option. I think Moreno can develop some more power in 2-3 years, like how Realmuto did at the start of his career with the Marlins. Though given the Jays situation, I understand why they kept Kirk over Moreno and have no issue with that. As well, who knows if the Dbacks preferred Moreno over Kirk anyways.

 

I think Kirk has simply been in a bit of a slump timing wise this season. Over his career (including his early season struggles) he's averaged over 44% hard hit rate/90.5 MPH exit velocity, whereas this season these have both dropped precipitously to 34%/85.9 MPH with a corresponding increase in ground balls. Once he hits his stride he's fully set up for a massive surge in production given the great swing decisions and walk rate, as he's kept his head well above water offensively almost solely based on walk rate so far.

[jaysblue]

At no point in his career has Kirk been "awful offensively". A catcher who's league average offensively at his worst is a guy every team in the league would take, not to mention how much offensive upside he actually does have. He has elite bat to ball skills, a great eye, and has displayed power previously, he's just in a funk right now hitting too many groundballs. Once he fixes his swing again he'll be a force in our lineup. Moreno has more upside overall because of his athleticism meaning he can provide plus defense and average baserunning, but in no way does he have better hitting potential than Kirk who has hit his whole life, minors and majors.

 

Last season his only standout months were May and June. Pretty much the other months he was just league average or worse. I'm not saying Kirk was awful last season, but a lot of his overall numbers were driven from a very hot May and June. Otherwise most of the other months his OPS was below .700 other than May, June and July (.721 OPS).

 

Of course I'll take Kirk's production from behind the plate any day of the week, even his numbers this season so far despite the lack of power. He still makes a lot of great contact and gets on base at a very high clip. I'll take Gregg Zaun numbers offensively from him, not a problem.

[jaysblue]

Yall are crazy, Kirk is still projecting for 120ish wRC+ and near .800 OPS for the rest of the season

 

Yeah if he hits for more power, he'll definitely reach those numbers. If his .OBP sits around .370-.380 and his SLG is around .400 or better, he'll near those numbers like last season.

 

But he could also just be a groundball machine when hitting and he doesn't rediscover that power stroke this season, making him closer to a .700 OPS bat. Hopefully he makes the adjustments and starts hitting for more power. Regardless, with his defense and high on-base numbers, he's still a good bat behind the plate.

[jaysblue]

I think Kirk has simply been in a bit of a slump timing wise this season. Over his career (including his early season struggles) he's averaged over 44% hard hit rate/90.5 MPH exit velocity, whereas this season these have both dropped precipitously to 34%/85.9 MPH with a corresponding increase in ground balls. Once he hits his stride he's fully set up for a massive surge in production given the great swing decisions and walk rate, as he's kept his head well above water offensively almost solely based on walk rate so far.

 

Yeah despite his struggles, he still has a .385 OBP which is excellent and a .722 OPS and a 112 wRC+ this season. Power has been lacking this season evident by his .337 SLG. He only has four extra base hits - 2 doubles and 2 home runs. He should improve on those moving forward obviously like you said once his timing is down pat and hits the ball harder.

[Brownie19]

Kirk really only had two standout months in 2022. All his power came in the month of May and June, otherwise he was awful offensively. He's still getting on-base this season at a high clip which is a plus, though I think many posters on this board overhyped him. I still think he'll end up being a great hitter for the Jays and still think he can turn it around. If he doesn't hit for any power though, he likely is a low .700 OPS type of bat.

 

He's still young enough to improve though I do think longer term Moreno is the better option. I think Moreno can develop some more power in 2-3 years, like how Realmuto did at the start of his career with the Marlins. Though given the Jays situation, I understand why they kept Kirk over Moreno and have no issue with that. As well, who knows if the Dbacks preferred Moreno over Kirk anyways.

 

So Moreno can do this, but Kirk can't? Not sure why you'd come to the conclusion that Kirk can't hit for power, but you think Moreno will develop it.

[max silver]

So Moreno can do this, but Kirk can't? Not sure why you'd come to the conclusion that Kirk can't hit for power, but you think Moreno will develop it.

 

Kirk has displayed power in MLB already, whereas Moreno hasn't shown any power since a short stint in AA several years ago. Over Moreno's last two seasons in a combined 442 AAA/MLB plate appearances he's produced all of a combined 27 extra base hits (22 2B/5 HR). It's far from a given this is going to improve dramatically over time.

[BigCecil]

I think we would all agree that when it comes to assessing who is "better", especially at C, there is more to the evaluation than just the stick.

[connorp]

wRC+ is only half the story with the Catchers.

They were supposed to be more than capable DHs. right now they’re pretty meh in that regard.

Luckily Belt isn’t garbage bin stuff yet

[gruber92]

Varsho still the better trade there IMO, Bryan Reynolds had 3 years left vs Varsho’s 4, and Kirk is better than Moreno

 

I don't think Kirk brings more value overall than Moreno. Time will tell I guess.

[jaysblue]

So Moreno can do this, but Kirk can't? Not sure why you'd come to the conclusion that Kirk can't hit for power, but you think Moreno will develop it.

 

Where did I say Kirk can't hit for power? I said if he doesn't improve his power numbers, he's likely just a .700 OPS bat. So far Kirk's May and June 2022 are the only two months he showed a power stroke. Otherwise he hasn't done it consistently and his overall numbers last season were driven by those two hot months he had. I love Kirk and think he'll be fine behind the plate whether he hits for power or not, but some posters on here praise him as he's going to be a stud. Lets see if he's a 4-5 WAR player this season or next.

 

If Kirk doesn't develop into more power, he probably has a similar offensive ceiling to Gregg Zaun, which I have no issue with.

 

I think longer term in regards to athleticism, Moreno will likely age better behind the plate and offensively. But yeah he could also just be a .280-.300 type guy who doesn't get on-base at a high clip and hits for very little power.

[G-Snarls]

If I could only have one catcher on the team I'd pick Jansen

 

Having Jansen and Kirk both is a nice luxury

 

Moreno will probably turn into a very good defensive catcher who hits mostly singles. I'm fine with having traded him for 4 years of Varsho who I think will be very valuable during his tenure here.

[max silver]

Where did I say Kirk can't hit for power? I said if he doesn't improve his power numbers, he's likely just a .700 OPS bat. So far Kirk's May and June 2022 are the only two months he showed a power stroke. Otherwise he hasn't done it consistently and his overall numbers last season were driven by those two hot months he had. I love Kirk and think he'll be fine behind the plate whether he hits for power or not, but some posters on here praise him as he's going to be a stud. Lets see if he's a 4-5 WAR player this season or next.

 

I think longer term in regards to athleticism, Moreno will likely age better behind the plate and offensively. But yeah he could also just be a .280-.300 type guy who doesn't get on-base at a high clip and hits for very little power.

 

I don't think the bolded is really true. In 2021 Kirk hit 8 homeruns with a .194 ISO in only 189 plate appearances.

[Orgfiller]

wRC+ is only half the story with the Catchers.

They were supposed to be more than capable DHs. right now they’re pretty meh in that regard.

Luckily Belt isn’t garbage bin stuff yet

 

Kirk's current wRC+ is higher than any leaguewide offensive position, including 1B and DH. Jansen has been struggling, but like Springer to a lesser extent is also heavily underperforming his xWOBA. He's been closer to a 90 wRC+ bat than the garbage 55 he actually has.

[Orgfiller]

If I could only have one catcher on the team I'd pick Jansen

 

Having Jansen and Kirk both is a nice luxury

 

Moreno will probably turn into a very good defensive catcher who hits mostly singles. I'm fine with having traded him for 4 years of Varsho who I think will be very valuable during his tenure here.

But why? Jansen has never had a season anywhere as good as Kirk's 2022, and is closer to exiting his prime than Kirk is to entering his lol. Defensively he wasn't even as good as Kirk last year, and the latter's bat is better. His only true advantage over Kirky is he's a significantly better runner, much like 99% of the league lol.

[jaysblue]

Kirk has displayed power in MLB already, whereas Moreno hasn't shown any power since a short stint in AA several years ago. Over Moreno's last two seasons in a combined 442 AAA/MLB plate appearances he's produced all of a combined 27 extra base hits (22 2B/5 HR). It's far from a given this is going to improve dramatically over time.

 

Kirk has only displayed power for two months in the MLB, May and June of last season. He hasn't been consistent. Otherwise his power numbers have been pretty meh and so far he only has 4 extra base hits this season (2 doubles and 2 HR's) which is pretty disappointing. He might just be a high contact and on-base guy who doesn't generate much power, which is fine from behind the plate. I just don't think he's a stud unless he shows more consistency in the power department offensively.

[Carlos Danger]

I just don't know how many years Varsho will be able to effectively man center field as he appears to be slowly losing speed over time, and he wasn't really a burner to start with. He seems to have great instincts/get great jumps though so at least that part of his game should age a little more gracefully.

 

Where are you getting that Varsho is losing speed..? As of 7 months ago he was like the highest rated zone defensive CF... What has changed in 7 months??

[jaysblue]

If I could only have one catcher on the team I'd pick Jansen

 

Having Jansen and Kirk both is a nice luxury

 

Moreno will probably turn into a very good defensive catcher who hits mostly singles. I'm fine with having traded him for 4 years of Varsho who I think will be very valuable during his tenure here.

 

Yeah I'm fine with keeping Kirk and Jansen and trading Moreno for 4 years of Varsho as well. We don't know who Arizona wanted or didn't want. I'm fine with keeping Kirk as the starting catcher and it definitely is a nice luxury having both Kirk and Jansen on the team.

 

All I was saying his power numbers haven't been that great outside of May and June of last season. Like people on here think Kirk can be a 20-25 HR guy, consistent 5 WAR player, which is definitely possible but he could also be a guy who maxes at 10-15 HR's and 2-3 WAR seasons.

 

Moreno will turn into a very good defensive catcher and likely will age better than Kirk given his athleticism. He might just end up being a singles hitter and that's it, or he could also develop some power later on his career. Over the next 2-3 seasons which is the Jays window to contend for a World Series, I prefer going with Kirk and Jansen.

[max silver]

Where are you getting that Varsho is losing speed..? As of 7 months ago he was like the highest rated zone defensive CF... What has changed in 7 months??

 

His sprint speed has been slowly declining since peaking at 28.4 ft/second in 2021. He's down to an average of 27.9 ft/second so far this season. I just have a hard time seeing him continuing to be an elite center field defender if this trend continues.

[Laika]

His sprint speed has been slowly declining since peaking at 28.4 ft/second in 2021. He's down to an average of 27.9 ft/second so far this season. I just have a hard time seeing him continuing to be an elite center field defender if this trend continues.

 

He didn't have elite sprint speed in 2022 though

 

His prowess is more about jumps/instincts/reads

[John_Havok]

He didn't have elite sprint speed in 2022 though

 

His prowess is more about jumps/instincts/reads

 

And acceleration. Dude seems to get to top speed in 2 or 3 strides.

[Laika]

interestingly his outfielder jump has cratered this year, from 99th percentile to 47th

 

i bet that improves dramatically going forward.

[max silver]

But why? Jansen has never had a season anywhere as good as Kirk's 2022, and is closer to exiting his prime than Kirk is to entering his lol. Defensively he wasn't even as good as Kirk last year, and the latter's bat is better. His only true advantage over Kirky is he's a significantly better runner, much like 99% of the league lol.

 

I wouldn't necessarily choose Jansen over Kirk, however preferring Jansen is hardly indefensible. Starting from 2021 when Kirk became more of a regular Jansen has actually outproduced Kirk in overall value on a rate basis. Jansen comes in at 3.96 FWAR/550 vs Kirk at 3.17 FWAR/550. Jansen has had a hard time staying on the field, but when on the field he played like a 4.5-5 WAR player in 2022, and sustained this type of production despite having a lot of starts and stops due to making several trips to the injured list. I think it's up in the air what kind of offensive player he eventually settles in as, but I don't think the power surge over the second half of 2021 and entire season in 2022 is some kind of fluke.

[G-Snarls]

He didn't have elite sprint speed in 2022 though

 

His prowess is more about jumps/instincts/reads

 

And he's only 26...