General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Jonn]

Loss

Win

coin-flip slug fest, edge Toronto

 

Nah easy sweep.

[BigCecil]

I think Bass pitched about as well as we could have expected when he came over last year. Bass and Pop for Groshans seems like it's a huge win for the team. Will this years' version of Bass be more of 2019-2021 version? Perhaps. We may have to take that risk and DFA him before we'd like to.

 

We used #12 th overall pick for Groshans. Who else could we have had? Sure, Pop looks like a promising pen arm. Will he be a Clay Holmes? Maybe. But when a 12th turns into Bass and Pop I'm ok with it, as lots of top picks don't work out, but I can't look at it as a huge win. Bass was ok for us last year - 4.63 FIP in a SSS and wasnt good in our short playoffs. This year he full on sucks so far.

[Laika]

We used #12 th overall pick for Groshans. Who else could we have had? Sure, Pop looks like a promising pen arm. Will he be a Clay Holmes? Maybe. But when a 12th turns into Bass and Pop I'm ok with it, as lots of top picks don't work out, but I can't look at it as a huge win.

 

That's just you doing mental gymnastics to be sad about something.

 

Brownie said the Groshans trade for Pop and Bass was a huge win. It probably was, considering Groshans as a prospect in the context of that trade. The 2018 draft is not relevant anymore. If the Jays had a time machine they'd go back and draft Shane McClanahan.

[Terminator]

Mariners probable starters

 

Game 1: Manoah vs. Castillo

Game 2: Gausman vs. Flexen

Game 3: Bassitt vs. Gonzales

 

We get Castillo, but luckily miss Gilbert and Kirby.

 

Game 1: Mariners have the favorable pitching matchup but they play in Philly today and then hop on a plane for tomorrow's game. They are also a West Coast team. I bet the odds are pretty even on this one but I don't have a great feeling about it after watching Castillo dominate us in the playoffs.

 

Game 2: We are big favorites in this one.

 

Game 3: Bassitt is probably the better pitcher and it's at home. His stats don't look great but after that first game he's thrown 4 straight QS. I think we are a decent favorite in this one.

 

All said I think we take 2/3.

[BigCecil]

That's just you doing mental gymnastics to be sad about something.

 

Brownie said the Groshans trade for Pop and Bass was a huge win. It probably was, considering Groshans as a prospect in the context of that trade. The 2018 draft is not relevant anymore. If the Jays had a time machine they'd go back and draft Shane McClanahan.

 

Bah. Not sad...just cant see it as a huge win.

[Laika]

Bah. Not sad...just cant see it as a huge win.

 

Even just getting Zach Pop with the 12th overall pick might be an okay result.

 

I don't remember the numbers but I would guess that the 12th draft spot probably only has an expected WAR to the drafting team of like... 5 WAR?

 

I think a pick in that range probably has a 70% bust rate. The average WAR is inflated because some of the players who make it are exceptional.

 

So any type of useful MLB player will be above the most common result.

[BigCecil]

Even just getting Zach Pop with the 12th overall pick might be an okay result.

 

I don't remember the numbers but I would guess that the 12th draft spot probably only has an expected WAR to the drafting team of like... 5 WAR?

 

I think a pick in that range probably has a 70% bust rate. The average WAR is inflated because some of the players who make it are exceptional.

 

So any type of useful MLB player will be above the most common result.

 

Thats logical. I don't know enough about these probabilities and pick value/success rate to even argue with you. Too much is invested in these picks emotionally juxtaposed against ^ reality. I yield to you and Brownie. Pop and Bass for Groshans = huge win. Praise be.

[John_Havok]

Thats logical. I don't know enough about these probabilities and pick value/success rate to even argue with you. Too much is invested in these picks emotionally juxtaposed against ^ reality. I yield to you and Brownie. Pop and Bass for Groshans = huge win. Praise be.

 

Truthfully, its not super complicated. You just look at the last 40 years of draft picks, and take the average WAR accumulation of each pick slot and you get an average value of the pick. Yeah, it's not something 1 person could do easily in a short period of time, but there's lots of publications and websites that have already done that legwork, so it's pretty quick to look up.

 

If pick 12 returns a career average of 5 WAR, then getting players that give you roughly that in return for the guy you took there is fine. It doesnt truly matter if they are a reliever, multiple relivers, or some guy that has 1 or 2 average seasons then fades away into nothingness quickly.

 

here's a list Fangraphs did in 2019, using 9million per WAR

 

looking at this, pick 12 would value at not even 2.5 WAR in 2019. The numbers would have changed since then, but not drastically so

[Grant77]

Loss

Win

coin-flip slug fest, edge Toronto

 

Marco Gonzales has less than 1 WAR over the past 3 seasons, spanning 61 starts. I think we can say that Bassitt is considerably better. The Mariners also have a below average offense and a considerably worse defense than us. We should be pretty strong favourites.

[Grant77]

Jays related video from one of my favourite youtubers:

 

[Brownie19]

Interesting little breakdown on Berrios this year...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jose-berrios-is-terrible-or-great-it-depends-on-how-youre-counting/

[jaysblue]

Mariners bats have sucked. If Jays could steal a win tonight against Castillo, that would be huge.

[BigCecil]

Mariners bats have sucked. If Jays could steal a win tonight against Castillo, that would be huge.

 

They will figure him out and win tonight - book it.

[Governator]

They will figure him out and win tonight - book it.

 

I'm there tonight, I'm worried Castillo is going to make my fiance not like baseball being her first game lol.

[Brownie19]

I'm there tonight, I'm worried Castillo is going to make my fiance not like baseball being her first game lol.

 

Just buy her a couple of poutine dogs and a couple of white claws and she'll be loving it. Or you can try to teach her the essence of a great pitching duel. Best of luck.

[BigCecil]

I'm there tonight, I'm worried Castillo is going to make my fiance not like baseball being her first game lol.

 

LOL! Gov. Too funny. I hope Teo gets a big welcome. Im ok with the trade but he seems like just a good guy. And he gave us lot to cheer…and curse about. He made his bones as a legit big league impact player in our country.

[Brownie19]

LOL! Gov. Too funny. I hope Teo gets a big welcome. Im ok with the trade but he seems like just a good guy. And he gave us lot to cheer…and curse about. He made his bones as a legit big league impact player in our country.

 

Agreed. He made bonehead plays on defense and on the base paths, but he was an easy guy to root for. That smile is so infectious. I hope he gets a huge ovation tonight.

[Jonn]

I'm there tonight, I'm worried Castillo is going to make my fiance not like baseball being her first game lol.

 

I think Castillo is due to get his s*** kicked in tonight. It happens to all pitchers eventually. Tonight is his night.

[Terminator]

Hoping Teo goes 0-4 with 4 Ks as the boos rain down on him and the Jays win 8 to nothing.

[John_Havok]

Hoping Teo goes 0-4 with 4 Ks as the boos rain down on him and the Jays win 8 to nothing.

 

Don't forget he has to drop a fly ball allowing Kiermaier to get to 3rd, or maybe misplay a dive and allow an inside-the-park HR

[Terminator]

We also need to get payback on Whit getting beaned last year. That, along with John Schneider not understanding that defensive replacements are the way to go with a lead, ignited their entire comeback as Tilapia came into the game and f***ed up a couple of 50/50 balls that Whit probably would have caught.

 

Beaning Teo seems a little harsh and so does beaning Julio so I vote for someone on the same talent level as Whit. Maybe Cal Raleigh?

[Slade]

Hoping Teo goes 0-4 with 4 Ks as the boos rain down on him and the Jays win 8 to nothing.

 

Why would he get booed?

[Stangstag]

Why would he get booed?

 

Idk. But half the people going to the game tonight probably don’t even know who Teoscar Hernandez is.

[jaysblue]

Idk. But half the people going to the game tonight probably don’t even know who Teoscar Hernandez is.

 

They'll be a video tribute for Teo for sure before his At-Bat possibly.

[Jonn]

Video tribute would be a bit much. I’m sure fans will acknowledge him and give him a hand during his first at-bat but that should be the extent of it. He’s a Mariner now and they gotta game to win. Swanson striking him out late in big situation would be kinda sweet though.

[L54]

They'll be a video tribute for Teo for sure before his At-Bat possibly.

 

Strike one!

[Governator]

I'll be giving Teo an applause for his first ab but then you're back to being the enemy.

[Virgil_Hiltz]

They'll be a video tribute for Teo for sure before his At-Bat possibly.

 

Im fine with that if it gets his mind off why he's there in the first place!

As a rightfielder he makes a great DH!

[BigCecil]

I'll be giving Teo an applause for his first ab but then you're back to being the enemy.

 

I would do same for Teo if there. "Mr. Seeds" What a dumb nickname. That couldn't have been real. Whats that in Spanish? Sr. Semillas.

 

I have good feeling about tonight.

[JaysAllMighty]