Around Baseball 2023

[Stangstag]

Maybe with the additional baserunner in extra innings things have changed some but winning one-run games was always thought to be the result of random chance and not a sustainable skill.

 

Wouldn't a good offense be just as likely to help? For example, if you are down by a run heading into the 9th on the road, a good offense is your only chance to turn a 1 run loss into a 1 run win.

 

And I can think of scenarios where a bad bullpen could actually help your record in 1 run games as well. Say you are up by 4 runs after your starter exits the game. Insert a couple of s***** relievers to close it out who give up some runs and it turns that 4 run win into a 1 run win.

 

So I'm pretty sure they just have a horseshoe stuck up their ass. Hopefully it falls out this series.

 

I wish the Jays would overperform for once

[Carlos Danger]

Not sure but they suck in 1 run games this year (15-19).

 

These standings include 1 run records. Doesn't seem to be a whole lot of correlation between the good teams and their 1 run records.

 

https://www.mlb.com/standings/advanced-splits

 

-The Rockies are 16-13 and the Royals are .500 in 1 run games despite being 2 of the 3 worst teams in the league.

-Even the A's aren't that bad with a 16-22 record in 1 run games.

-The Dodgers have a losing record.

-Texas is 7-14 in 1 run games and they are leading their division.

-The Padres struggles could perhaps be explained almost entirely by a 0-9 record in extra innings and a 6-17 record in 1 run games and they have Josh Hader. If good bullpens mattered, certainly the best CL in baseball would prevent them from being this dogshit in these scenarios?

 

Josh Hader doesn't account for a tied game. Just like Romano's record in tied games.

 

A one run game probably means it was tied so if you are the losing team it is not a save situation. The Orioles have enough BP depth to stay close or tied until they get that run at home or get to their closer on the road..

[Terminator]

Josh Hader doesn't account for a tied game. Just like Romano's record in tied games.

 

A one run game probably means it was tied so if you are the losing team it is not a save situation. The Orioles have enough BP depth to stay close or tied until they get that run at home or get to their closer on the road..

 

Hader accounts for 1 run saves though.

 

It's mostly all luck.

[Spanky__99]

Carson Kelly suxxxxxxxx

[Spanky__99]

Padres suxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

[connorp]

Josh Hader doesn't account for a tied game. Just like Romano's record in tied games.

 

A one run game probably means it was tied so if you are the losing team it is not a save situation. The Orioles have enough BP depth to stay close or tied until they get that run at home or get to their closer on the road..

 

Taking about a closer in an extremely lazy way of analyzing it. Every inning is pretty much the same in a 1 run game in terms of brining critical. Obviously all facets of the game factor in, but BP performance and depth are important. Save the nerd stats and just remember the Blue Jays and their history.

 

Being ahead in the 9th in a save situation should be treated as an entirely separate stat (record in that scenario) if you want to judge W/L

[Olerud363]

Maybe with the additional baserunner in extra innings things have changed some but winning one-run games was always thought to be the result of random chance and not a sustainable skill.

 

Wouldn't a good offense be just as likely to help? For example, if you are down by a run heading into the 9th on the road, a good offense is your only chance to turn a 1 run loss into a 1 run win.

 

And I can think of scenarios where a bad bullpen could actually help your record in 1 run games as well. Say you are up by 4 runs after your starter exits the game. Insert a couple of s***** relievers to close it out who give up some runs and it turns that 4 run win into a 1 run win.

 

So I'm pretty sure they just have a horseshoe stuck up their ass. Hopefully it falls out this series.

 

You are totally right that the first four months of this year they have been lucky. The reason I am so impressed with the Orioles is not because of the record this year (which is a bit lucky) but the decisions the Orioles make, hitting every high round draft pick, developing a bullpen, incredible prospect development, using prospects to fill holes instead of old guys, playing Covid perfect, savy free agent signings.

 

The board has been stubborn about this and have not given Orioles credit for things like signing Adam Frazier and Gibson. Frazier's defense is down on fangraphs this year but otherwise he has a nice track record. Gibson is like really close to Bassit fWAR wise, this year and career. Why is Bassett worth 60 million and Gibson 10? They are not that far apart and Orioles recognized it.

 

Orioles have gotten Westberg in there while Jays have let Davis Schneider put up a 1.000 OPS+ in the minors. Orioles are getting their prospects feet wet while contending, Orioles have all players under 30 (except Gibson and Frazier who have minimal financial commitment).

 

Orioles rules are just old school Bill James, Don't overspend on players over 30, players peak at 27, on base percentage, just by luck some players are underrated (just scan for players who's fWAR is above traditional stats), use prospects to fill holes, a bullpen can be built for nothing, don't bother with stupid moves at the deadline, aim to contend for a decade not a year.

 

And don't bother winning 75 games during COVID years...

[Olerud363]

Hader accounts for 1 run saves though.

 

It's mostly all luck.

 

Totally agree. People have looked at this and run-differential predicts performance in the future, better than record.

[Brownie19]

You are totally right that the first four months of this year they have been lucky. The reason I am so impressed with the Orioles is not because of the record this year (which is a bit lucky) but the decisions the Orioles make, hitting every high round draft pick, developing a bullpen, incredible prospect development, using prospects to fill holes instead of old guys, playing Covid perfect, savy free agent signings.

 

The board has been stubborn about this and have not given Orioles credit for things like signing Adam Frazier and Gibson. Frazier's defense is down on fangraphs this year but otherwise he has a nice track record. Gibson is like really close to Bassit fWAR wise, this year and career. Why is Bassett worth 60 million and Gibson 10? They are not that far apart and Orioles recognized it.

 

Orioles have gotten Westberg in there while Jays have let Davis Schneider put up a 1.000 OPS+ in the minors. Orioles are getting their prospects feet wet while contending, Orioles have all players under 30 (except Gibson and Frazier who have minimal financial commitment).

 

Orioles rules are just old school Bill James, Don't overspend on players over 30, players peak at 27, on base percentage, just by luck some players are underrated (just scan for players who's fWAR is above traditional stats), use prospects to fill holes, a bullpen can be built for nothing, don't bother with stupid moves at the deadline, aim to contend for a decade not a year.

 

And don't bother winning 75 games during COVID years...

 

Unfortunately - I have to agree with you on this one. I'll be interested to see how long the O's can maintain this plan. And FWIW, Jeff Blair said Davis Schneider isn't an option on the morning show this morning (although I'm pretty sure he wasn't even 100% sure who Davis Schneider is and was caught off guard when asked about him). He said Schneider is like Nathan Lukes. Had a good year in AAA, but we now see what that amounts to at the ML level - going on to actually say that Nathan Lukes sucks.

[Laika]

Jeff Blair is so useless

[glory]

You are totally right that the first four months of this year they have been lucky. The reason I am so impressed with the Orioles is not because of the record this year (which is a bit lucky) but the decisions the Orioles make, hitting every high round draft pick, developing a bullpen, incredible prospect development, using prospects to fill holes instead of old guys, playing Covid perfect, savy free agent signings.

 

The board has been stubborn about this and have not given Orioles credit for things like signing Adam Frazier and Gibson. Frazier's defense is down on fangraphs this year but otherwise he has a nice track record. Gibson is like really close to Bassit fWAR wise, this year and career. Why is Bassett worth 60 million and Gibson 10? They are not that far apart and Orioles recognized it.

 

Orioles have gotten Westberg in there while Jays have let Davis Schneider put up a 1.000 OPS+ in the minors. Orioles are getting their prospects feet wet while contending, Orioles have all players under 30 (except Gibson and Frazier who have minimal financial commitment).

 

Orioles rules are just old school Bill James, Don't overspend on players over 30, players peak at 27, on base percentage, just by luck some players are underrated (just scan for players who's fWAR is above traditional stats), use prospects to fill holes, a bullpen can be built for nothing, don't bother with stupid moves at the deadline, aim to contend for a decade not a year.

 

And don't bother winning 75 games during COVID years...

 

Yeah the Jays seem to have no interest in using prospects to fill big league holes or get them PA’s during this competitive window. Last position player prospect that they called up and used a lot was probably Kirk in 2020. Granted they haven’t developed one that was worth playing since then aside from Moreno who was blocked by 2 catchers, but I don’t see the Jays being that type of org anyway. The Orioles don’t even have injuries aside from Mullins, but they call up prospects and cycle playing time between them and existing players. The Jays doing something like that with Schneider, Barger, etc, seems pretty unlikely.

[Olerud363]

Unfortunately - I have to agree with you on this one. I'll be interested to see how long the O's can maintain this plan. And FWIW, Jeff Blair said Davis Schneider isn't an option on the morning show this morning (although I'm pretty sure he wasn't even 100% sure who Davis Schneider is and was caught off guard when asked about him). He said Schneider is like Nathan Lukes. Had a good year in AAA, but we now see what that amounts to at the ML level - going on to actually say that Nathan Lukes sucks.

 

I mention Westburg and Schneider together because stats scouting they are super similar. Same age, similar lifetime stats, big age 24, Westburg a bit better life time, Schneider better at age 24.

 

Different paths to age 24 though. Westburg college and high first rounder, Schneider seems to have been a high school pick but stuck at 50 games a year until age 23.

 

lol. Lukes completely different guy. Horrible through age 24 then some better seasons at age 27 and 28, but even his age 27 was nothing special. A .280 with 11 homers, .780 OPS kind of season, compared to Schneider being an almost 1.000 OPS guy at age 24.

[Brownie19]

I mention Westburg and Schneider together because stats scouting they are super similar. Same age, similar lifetime stats, big age 24, Westburg a bit better life time, Schneider better at age 24.

 

Different paths to age 24 though. Westburg college and high first rounder, Schneider seems to have been a high school pick but stuck at 50 games a year until age 23.

 

lol. Lukes completely different guy. Horrible through age 24 then some better seasons at age 27 and 28, but even his age 27 was nothing special. A .280 with 11 homers, .780 OPS kind of season, compared to Schneider being an almost 1.000 OPS guy at age 24.

 

Oh I agree. I can't believe anyone pays Jeff Blair to talk about baseball. It's f***ing gross.

[Omar]

I mention Westburg and Schneider together because stats scouting they are super similar. Same age, similar lifetime stats, big age 24, Westburg a bit better life time, Schneider better at age 24.

 

Different paths to age 24 though. Westburg college and high first rounder, Schneider seems to have been a high school pick but stuck at 50 games a year until age 23.

 

lol. Lukes completely different guy. Horrible through age 24 then some better seasons at age 27 and 28, but even his age 27 was nothing special. A .280 with 11 homers, .780 OPS kind of season, compared to Schneider being an almost 1.000 OPS guy at age 24.

 

Small guys like Schneider have a tough road to hoe. Always have to be 10% better than bigger players who have the same metrics. Hope he gets a shot but the Jays seem conservative with the call ups. Maybe the Bo injury will prompt them into action if Atkins can’t consummate a deal for De Jong, Anderson, etc.

Edited August 1, 2023 by Omar

[Brownie19]

DeJong is an interesting option. Obviously SS becomes a big need right now, but DeJong could also fill that void of a RH batting lefty killer (129 wRC+ this year v. LHP). He's not exactly that huge power impact guy on offense, but he could be a fit at a reasonable price.

[Jonn]

DeJong is an interesting option. Obviously SS becomes a big need right now, but DeJong could also fill that void of a RH batting lefty killer (129 wRC+ this year v. LHP). He's not exactly that huge power impact guy on offense, but he could be a fit at a reasonable price.

 

He would likely be the option they pursue depending how long term the Bo injury is. If it’s a complete ACL tear. He would miss the rest of this Season and most if not all of next year. So that’s where you would want a new everyday SS for a year and half.

 

Hoping its not the severe and its more of a jam or sprain. And in that case you shift to more of a cheap veteran glove.

[jaysblue]

Oh I agree. I can't believe anyone pays Jeff Blair to talk about baseball. It's f***ing gross.

 

Rogers does. I don't understand why. Blair is like a casual and just awful.

[jaysblue]

DeJong is an interesting option. Obviously SS becomes a big need right now, but DeJong could also fill that void of a RH batting lefty killer (129 wRC+ this year v. LHP). He's not exactly that huge power impact guy on offense, but he could be a fit at a reasonable price.

 

DeJong would be a nice stopgap until Bo returns. Could mash lefties and could go on hot streaks. Lets hope Bo isn't out for too long.

[G-Snarls]

Trey Mancini DFA

 

Poor guy

[Stangstag]

Rogers does. I don't understand why. Blair is like a casual and just awful.

 

100% I get annoyed every time the dude gives his stupid opinion on the Radio. At least Barker kinda knows the game, Blair knows jack s***

[hanton]

Don't know how Barker can stand Blair - at least Barker played - Blair is awful.

[hanton]

What happened to the Reds and their magical season?

 

Cubs beating them 20 - 5 (Belli is 3/6 for a home run)

[Spanky__99]

What happened to the Reds and their magical season?

 

Cubs beating them 20 - 5 (Belli is 3/6 for a home run)

 

In the end 50-1... 2-1 means the same s***, bring on tomorrow son?

[jaysblue]

What happened to the Reds and their magical season?

 

Cubs beating them 20 - 5 (Belli is 3/6 for a home run)

 

Blake Lively was pitching.

[Spanky__99]

Valdez was sexy last night with the no-no.

[JaysAllMighty]

Now imagine this happening during the playoffs

 

[BTS]

Now imagine this happening during the playoffs

 

 

Perhaps the Mets shouldn't have balked with the winning run on third in the bottom of the 10th.

[Brownie19]

Now imagine this happening during the playoffs

 

 

Perhaps the pitcher should have stepped off properly? That's a pretty easy fix.

[Omar]

I wish the Jays would overperform for once

 

2021. Vladdy, Semien, Ray, ….

[Stangstag]

2021. Vladdy, semien, ray, ….

 

rip.