Around Baseball 2023

[jaysblue]

Russell had more power than Posey. Close in obp too. If Posey gets in easily, which he will, sure give Martin a look. I hope he gets in but it won't be "easily". Let's a couple of years and see what happens.

 

Posey will be a first balloter IMO. It might take Martin a couple of years obviously, but he definitely is worthy of being in the Hall.

[L54]

I just had this argument with someone else. Martin has almost the same WAR as Molina in like 500 less games. Molina will probably be a first ballot HOF’er. Martin is definitely a Hall of Famer in my eyes

[Laika]

Martin was also wildly successful in some of the soft, "team leader" ways

 

The guy made the playoffs in... 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2019

[Stangstag]

It was, but it was due to Shapiro publicly criticizing him (for not building a sustainable winner and I can't imagine anyone would argue Atkins is doing better than AA at that now) and then taking away all autonomy from him privately.

 

********, he left in solidarity with Beeston

[BTS]

Martin was also wildly successful in some of the soft, "team leader" ways

 

The guy made the playoffs in... 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2019

 

Being a journeyman hurts his reputation with the baseball writers. If he had played his entire career with the Cards and Yadi moved around every 4 years or whatever Martin would be looked at as the first ballot HoFer.

[jaysblue]

********, he left in solidarity with Beeston

 

Nah, Shapiro did publicly criticize him for gutting the farm and wasn't going to give AA the full autonomy he wanted.

[connorp]

Pessimistic fans aren’t just for message boards. I just saw a mainstream article on my Yahoo feed that read “Riley Green goes to to IL. Ending the Detroit Tigers season” in bold

[gruber92]

********, he left in solidarity with Beeston

 

********.. Shapiro wanted to hold the steering wheel also when it came to building the roster. AA wasn't good with that and left. I thought everyone knew this?

[JaysAllMighty]

********.. Shapiro wanted to hold the steering wheel also when it came to building the roster. AA wasn't good with that and left. I thought everyone knew this?

 

AA wanted total control which wasn't going to happened with Shapiro and that was the bottom line.

[TheHurl]

********.. Shapiro wanted to hold the steering wheel also when it came to building the roster. AA wasn't good with that and left. I thought everyone knew this?

 

Then why has Shapiro had zero say in building the roster outside of budget?

[Omar]

When AA left Toronto he was not the finished product he is now as an executive. He learned a lot when he went to the Dodgers organization. It’s not like we let diamond walk away. Diamond in the rough, maybe.

[Laika]

We simply do not know the complete story

 

The public comments by Shapiro might have come after AA had made it clear in some way that he wasn't sticking around

 

I am not sure that Shapiro really wanted control over the MLB side of things. From what we have seen he's not super interested in that.

[mphenhef]

I would guess there is a big difference in his mind of handing the reins over to someone he inherited versus handing them over to someone he had worked with an known for years and was able to hand pick.

[Brownie19]

Being a journeyman hurts his reputation with the baseball writers. If he had played his entire career with the Cards and Yadi moved around every 4 years or whatever Martin would be looked at as the first ballot HoFer.

 

It's really f***ing sad if that's true. He played for 4 organizations. He isn't Edwin Jackson and wasn't a journeyman.

[Laika]

Being a journeyman hurts his reputation with the baseball writers. If he had played his entire career with the Cards and Yadi moved around every 4 years or whatever Martin would be looked at as the first ballot HoFer.

 

I'm not sure that's the case. He just didn't win enough hardware or develop a rock-solid reputation on either side of the ball.

 

Like, Yadier Molina was a 10 time AS and 9 time GG.

 

Posey 7 time AS, MVP, ROY, five time SS.

 

Russell had 4 AS, one GG, one SS.

 

His offensive reputation was sandbagged by batting average bias and on the defensive side the fancy stats loved his framing but I don't think traditional baseball people thought of him as like, almost the best defensive catcher in baseball, even though Fangraphs would say he was top 3 for most of his career.

 

Brian McCann is in the exact same boat as Russell.

 

If you look at the catchers in baseball historically then you can make a really strong argument that McCann and Russell deserve to be in the hall of fame. But isn't that kind of like the argument for putting relievers in there?

[Brownie19]

Dbacks sure have to be regretting the decision to take Pavin Smith 7th overall...

[Laika]

Dbacks sure have to be regretting the decision to take Pavin Smith 7th overall...

 

I dunno man, look at everyone behind him. Chances are players #2 and #3 on their board at the time also suck.

[jaysblue]

Dbacks sure have to be regretting the decision to take Pavin Smith 7th overall...

 

Defensively, he provides no value at all. Offensively, he still has solid K/BB ratios (.341 OBP despite a .226 BA). Needs to be an .800 OPS or better bat to at least be productive.

[keggy]

I am not sure that Shapiro really wanted control over the MLB side of things. From what we have seen he's not super interested in that.

 

It's widely known that this is the reason Anthopoulos left.

[Laika]

It's widely known that this is the reason Anthopoulos left.

 

Widely reported. It's not known. I don't think AA has ever commented on that.

 

All we know is that he was offered a 5 year extension and turned it down.

[Brownie19]

I dunno man, look at everyone behind him. Chances are players #2 and #3 on their board at the time also suck.

 

I guess he's just another 1st base bust like Tork. If you're taking a 1st baseman early in the draft, you better be 1000% sure he can hit.

[Orgfiller]

I guess he's just another 1st base bust like Tork. If you're taking a 1st baseman early in the draft, you better be 1000% sure he can hit.

 

Don't forget Andrew Vaughn! 1-3 the draft prior to Torkelson's.

[Brownie19]

Don't forget Andrew Vaughn! 1-3 the draft prior to Torkelson's.

 

Good call - but at least Vaughn is currently a 115 wRC+ hitter and could still develop into a very solid player. It's looking pretty grim right now for Tork and Pavin Smith.

[G-Snarls]

Felt like looking of career total fWAR for comparison

 

Molina career WAR 55.7 - played 2-3 years longer than he should have

Martin career WAR 54.9 - played just about the right amount of time maybe a year too long

Posey career WAR 57.5 - retired kinda early

 

Remarkable how similar their career WAR comes out despite differences in career length.

Yadi added almost nothing to his total his last 4 years playing until age 39.

Posey OTOH retired after a 5 WAR season at age 34. He probably could have easily tacked on few more positive WAR seasons if he'd wanted to, and he already had the most WAR among the 3. He was certainly the best hitter.

Edited June 1, 2023 by G-Snarls

[Orgfiller]

Good call - but at least Vaughn is currently a 115 wRC+ hitter and could still develop into a very solid player. It's looking pretty grim right now for Tork and Pavin Smith.

 

Tork's xWOBA is the same as Vaughn's so they're not as far apart as you'd think. If anything Tork is further ahead in development/value given he's 1.5 years younger and with similar performance. Both are butchers though, and already awful runners, a 120 wRC+ isn't gonna cut it for either of them.

[jaysblue]

Felt like looking of career total fWAR for comparison

 

Molina career WAR 55.7 - played 2-3 years longer than he should have

Martin career WAR 54.9 - played just about the right amount of time maybe a year too long

Posey career WAR 57.5 - retired kinda early

 

Remarkable how similar their career WAR comes out despite differences in career length.

Yadi added almost nothing to his total his last 4 years playing until age 39.

Posey OTOH retired after a 5 WAR season at age 34. He probably could have easily tacked on few more positive WAR seasons is he'd wanted to, and he already had the most WAR among the 3. He was certainly the best hitter.

 

Posey was the best catcher in baseball over the last 10-15 years. He put up a 10.1 WAR season in 2012 and won 3 World Series with the Giants. He was just above and beyond everyone else at that position.

 

Sucks he retired early at 34. Like you said, he probably could have strung together a couple more 3-4 WAR seasons. Might have got close to 70 WAR, especially if he never was part of that home plate collision in 2011 which he only played 45 games.

[Laika]

Posey was the best catcher in baseball over the last 10-15 years. He put up a 10.1 WAR season in 2012 and won 3 World Series with the Giants. He was just above and beyond everyone else at that position.

 

Sucks he retired early at 34. Like you said, he probably could have strung together a couple more 3-4 WAR seasons. Might have got close to 70 WAR, especially if he never was part of that home plate collision in 2011 which he only played 45 games.

 

This is why "peak" WAR matters quite a bit for HOF consideration.

[Brownie19]

Tork's xWOBA is the same as Vaughn's so they're not as far apart as you'd think. If anything Tork is further ahead in development/value given he's 1.5 years younger and with similar performance. Both are butchers though, and already awful runners, a 120 wRC+ isn't gonna cut it for either of them.

 

yikes! I just can't fathom how disappointing it must be to have butchered the #1 pick like that...although almost every pick from the 2020 draft is awful.

[jaysblue]

Interesting debate: would you consider Bryce Harper HOF worthy or as a first balloter?

 

He's had a solid career to date, but looking over his career numbers, he's definitely been overhyped and overrated.

 

Trout almost has double the career WAR over the same timespan. Crazy!

[Orgfiller]

yikes! I just can't fathom how disappointing it must be to have butchered the #1 pick like that...although almost every pick from the 2020 draft is awful.

 

I mean it's still early for them/Tork so you can't throw the book out yet. It could be worse, they could be Mark Appel or Mickey Moniak. Casey Mize who has sucked or been injured. Royce Lewis who can't stay healthy. Dansby Swanson was pretty mediocre over his years of control. Sometimes even getting a 2 WAR guy is a plus.