Around Baseball 2023

[Orgfiller]

Interesting debate: would you consider Bryce Harper HOF worthy or as a first balloter?

 

He's had a solid career to date, but looking over his career numbers, he's definitely been overhyped and overrated.

 

Trout almost has double the career WAR over the same timespan. Crazy!

 

Harper is 30 years old...right now he obviously wouldn't be either of those things, but he's easily trending as a HOF, likely a first ballot. Big difference between an inner circle guy like Trout who is one of the best players of all time, and Harper who is a more "decent" Hall of Famer whom everyone will remember for years to come. Mookie Betts is another guy who should cruise into the Hall barring catastrophe, and he's only 8 WAR ahead of Harper at the same age, 30 WAR behind Trout. It's unfair to compare anyone to him.

[Laika]

If Harper was medically retired tomorrow, he's not a hall of famer. It would be a David Wright situation.

 

If Harper can play well into his mid 30s then he'll make it.

[Pendleton]

I mean it's still early for them/Tork so you can't throw the book out yet. It could be worse, they could be Mark Appel or Mickey Moniak. Casey Mize who has sucked or been injured. Royce Lewis who can't stay healthy. Dansby Swanson was pretty mediocre over his years of control. Sometimes even getting a 2 WAR guy is a plus.

 

Moniak has a 1.036 OPS in the majors, he wants out of your example

[jaysblue]

Harper is 30 years old...right now he obviously wouldn't be either of those things, but he's easily trending as a HOF, likely a first ballot. Big difference between an inner circle guy like Trout who is one of the best players of all time, and Harper who is a more "decent" Hall of Famer whom everyone will remember for years to come. Mookie Betts is another guy who should cruise into the Hall barring catastrophe, and he's only 8 WAR ahead of Harper at the same age, 30 WAR behind Trout. It's unfair to compare anyone to him.

 

At the time when they reached the Majors, both Harper and Trout were pretty much considered two of the best future young stars of the game. Trout obviously went to another level and lived up to those expectations as one of the best players all time in baseball whereas Harper has had a solid career, though never lived up to the lofty expectations when he was coming up as a prospect. Was using that comparison showing how good Trout has been over the last 10 or so years and how Harper hasn't even come close. You probably had some scouts and baseball writers back in 2011/2012 think Harper was going to be better than Trout. There was definitely more hype surrounding Harper when he made the Show.

 

Harper is definitely trending towards the Hall if he stays healthy and produces a couple more 4-5 WAR seasons. He's had a real solid career. Though don't think he lived up to all the hype when he was coming up as a prospect.

[jaysblue]

If Harper was medically retired tomorrow, he's not a hall of famer. It would be a David Wright situation.

 

If Harper can play well into his mid 30s then he'll make it.

 

Yeah Harper still needs to play into mid 30s and put together a couple more 4-5 WAR seasons. I don't think we'll ever see Harper being a 9 WAR player ever again like he was in 2015.

[Laika]

At the time when they reached the Majors, both Harper and Trout were pretty much considered two of the best future young stars of the game. Trout obviously went to another level and lived up to those expectations as one of the best players all time in baseball whereas Harper has had a solid career, though never lived up to the lofty expectations when he was coming up as a prospect. Was using that comparison showing how good Trout has been over the last 10 or so years and how Harper hasn't even come close. You probably had some scouts and baseball writers back in 2011/2012 think Harper was going to be better than Trout. There was definitely more hype surrounding Harper when he made the Show.

 

There were 2011 rankings that went Harper then Trout.

 

I believe some publications even had guys like Dom Brown, Jeremy Hellickson, Jesus Montero, and Matt Moore extremely close. And I mean s*** like Hellickson ahead of Harper...

[jaysblue]

Yeah BA's 2011 rankings had Harper ahead of Trout.

 

Montero and Brown were both 3 and 4 lol. Teheran was No. 5 haha.

 

Hellickson, Chapman, Hosmer, Moustakas, Myers rounded out the Top 10. Geez!

[Laika]

MLB.com in 2011 had Hellickson #2 haha

 

Trout - Hellickson - Harper

 

These were the Drabek, Lawrie, Arencibia days. Toronto's farm was sort of stacked. Sanchez, d'Arnaud, Thames, Syndergaard, Wojo, Grant's favourite prospect Zach Stewart, future #4 workhorse Decklyn McGueer, handsome Jake, Henderson Alvarez of future fleeting dominance, Deck McGuire 2.0 aka Chadley Jonkins, and who could forget perennial gold glove candidate Adeiny ECHavarrrrrrrrreeeeeeeeyaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!

 

What a farm system!!!

[Olerud363]

MLB.com in 2011 had Hellickson #2 haha

 

Trout - Hellickson - Harper

 

These were the Drabek, Lawrie, Arencibia days. Toronto's farm was sort of stacked. Sanchez, d'Arnaud, Thames, Syndergaard, Wojo, Grant's favourite prospect Zach Stewart, future #4 workhorse Decklyn McGueer, handsome Jake, Henderson Alvarez of future fleeting dominance, Deck McGuire 2.0 aka Chadley Jonkins, and who could forget perennial gold glove candidate Adeiny ECHavarrrrrrrrreeeeeeeeyaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!

 

What a farm system!!!

 

 

Also Brett Wallace, an obese guy who's minor league numbers didn't really translate. Travis Snider 20 f***ing years old and given to Cito to develop and the first thing he and Gene Tennace did is tell him he a was a s***-ball.

 

Then Wallace was traded for Gose, who looked real interesting but Grant hated. Was Grant right or wrong since he loved Wallace but hated Gose and they both failed?

 

There was a moment in late 2011 early 2012, when they had about 20 interesting young players and then by 2013 they were winning 75 games with all the young players gone and Melky and Reyes and some Bonifacio guy in.

[wilko]

MLB.com in 2011 had Hellickson #2 haha

 

Trout - Hellickson - Harper

 

These were the Drabek, Lawrie, Arencibia days. Toronto's farm was sort of stacked. Sanchez, d'Arnaud, Thames, Syndergaard, Wojo, Grant's favourite prospect Zach Stewart, future #4 workhorse Decklyn McGueer, handsome Jake, Henderson Alvarez of future fleeting dominance, Deck McGuire 2.0 aka Chadley Jonkins, and who could forget perennial gold glove candidate Adeiny ECHavarrrrrrrrreeeeeeeeyaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!

 

What a farm system!!!

 

Lots of duds there. Thor looks like he's fully cooked.

[Laika]

Also Brett Wallace, an obese guy who's minor league numbers didn't really translate. Travis Snider 20 f***ing years old and given to Cito to develop and the first thing he and Gene Tennace did is tell him he a was a s***-ball.

 

Then Wallace was traded for Gose, who looked real interesting but Grant hated. Was Grant right or wrong since he loved Wallace but hated Gose and they both failed?

 

There was a moment in late 2011 early 2012, when they had about 20 interesting young players and then by 2013 they were winning 75 games with all the young players gone and Melky and Reyes and some Bonifacio guy in.

 

traded the farm for 80 innings from Josh Johnson and Jose Reyes' worthless free agent contract

 

#Legacy

[Laika]

Lots of duds there. Thor looks like he's fully cooked.

 

I thought the Dodgers would have a genius plan for him but I guess not

[Orgfiller]

At the time when they reached the Majors, both Harper and Trout were pretty much considered two of the best future young stars of the game. Trout obviously went to another level and lived up to those expectations as one of the best players all time in baseball whereas Harper has had a solid career, though never lived up to the lofty expectations when he was coming up as a prospect. Was using that comparison showing how good Trout has been over the last 10 or so years and how Harper hasn't even come close. You probably had some scouts and baseball writers back in 2011/2012 think Harper was going to be better than Trout. There was definitely more hype surrounding Harper when he made the Show.

 

Harper is definitely trending towards the Hall if he stays healthy and produces a couple more 4-5 WAR seasons. He's had a real solid career. Though don't think he lived up to all the hype when he was coming up as a prospect.

 

Yeah of course there's the debate from when they were both coming up as prospects and Harper's 2015 season when it was fair to compare them. What I'm arguing is it's unfair to label Harper's career as a disappointment simply because he didn't become Trout. Harper of course had generational prospect hype and was extremely highly touted, but he's also won 2 MVPs, reached the ASG 7x, 2 silver sluggers (surprisingly much fewer than I was anticipating), and has a career wRC+ of 141. He made it, he was worth the hype. His ceiling was best player in baseball (or at least best player in the NL), heights he reached in 2015 and 2021, but his more realistic career outlook became feared hitter who didn't quite have everything to be consistently in talks for best player in the game.

 

Any career where a prospect was highly touted and they're on track to be a Hall of Famer is successfully meeting the hype. Unless you're LeBron James whose expectations were inner circle HOF'er and he exceeded those. Baseball prospects are too volatile to have those kinds of expectations, so Harper properly met his.

 

Harper needs about 15 WAR in 10 years to be considered a relative lock for the Hall, I don't think he really even needs multiple monster 5 WAR seasons in that span to get it done, those will just give him a much stronger argument to be inducted early. As long as he keeps trending in his current path and doesn't decline heavily earlier than anticipated, he'll get in.

[John_Havok]

Yeah of course there's the debate from when they were both coming up as prospects and Harper's 2015 season when it was fair to compare them. What I'm arguing is it's unfair to label Harper's career as a disappointment simply because he didn't become Trout. Harper of course had generational prospect hype and was extremely highly touted, but he's also won 2 MVPs, reached the ASG 7x, 2 silver sluggers (surprisingly much fewer than I was anticipating), and has a career wRC+ of 141. He made it, he was worth the hype. His ceiling was best player in baseball (or at least best player in the NL), heights he reached in 2015 and 2021, but his more realistic career outlook became feared hitter who didn't quite have everything to be consistently in talks for best player in the game.

 

Any career where a prospect was highly touted and they're on track to be a Hall of Famer is successfully meeting the hype. Unless you're LeBron James whose expectations were inner circle HOF'er and he exceeded those. Baseball prospects are too volatile to have those kinds of expectations, so Harper properly met his.

 

Harper needs about 15 WAR in 10 years to be considered a relative lock for the Hall, I don't think he really even needs multiple monster 5 WAR seasons in that span to get it done, those will just give him a much stronger argument to be inducted early. As long as he keeps trending in his current path and doesn't decline heavily earlier than anticipated, he'll get in.

 

Long and pretty much perfect explanation condensed, any team in baseball would take Harper's career in a heartbeat as the #1 #1 in any draft.

[Spanky__99]

Sale's toast, throwing high 90's and velo velo suddenly dropped down to 92 and was removed at 59 pitches, something not good happened, no doubt.

[G-Snarls]

Sale's toast, throwing high 90's and velo velo suddenly dropped down to 92 and was removed at 59 pitches, something not good happened, no doubt.

 

He so broken

[G-Snarls]

[Spanky__99]

He's f***ed...

 

[jaysblue]

Yeah of course there's the debate from when they were both coming up as prospects and Harper's 2015 season when it was fair to compare them. What I'm arguing is it's unfair to label Harper's career as a disappointment simply because he didn't become Trout. Harper of course had generational prospect hype and was extremely highly touted, but he's also won 2 MVPs, reached the ASG 7x, 2 silver sluggers (surprisingly much fewer than I was anticipating), and has a career wRC+ of 141. He made it, he was worth the hype. His ceiling was best player in baseball (or at least best player in the NL), heights he reached in 2015 and 2021, but his more realistic career outlook became feared hitter who didn't quite have everything to be consistently in talks for best player in the game.

 

Any career where a prospect was highly touted and they're on track to be a Hall of Famer is successfully meeting the hype. Unless you're LeBron James whose expectations were inner circle HOF'er and he exceeded those. Baseball prospects are too volatile to have those kinds of expectations, so Harper properly met his.

 

Harper needs about 15 WAR in 10 years to be considered a relative lock for the Hall, I don't think he really even needs multiple monster 5 WAR seasons in that span to get it done, those will just give him a much stronger argument to be inducted early. As long as he keeps trending in his current path and doesn't decline heavily earlier than anticipated, he'll get in.

 

I never said Harper has had a disappointing career. Where did I ever say that? He's definitely had a great career to this point and has solidified himself as a top player in this game. All I was saying when he came up, he had very high expectations as the next baseball phenom, kind of like LeBron James level in the NBA as you just alluded to, though those expectation consistently over his career were never met. Yes he looked like the best player in baseball in 2015 and 2021, though outside of those years, while still very good, he didn't look as one of the best players in the game. Then I compared Trout's career WAR saying it was almost double his over the same timespan to show how amazing Trout has been during his career and that Harper wasn't even close. So I don't understand why you're trying to pick an argument here and trying to prove a point.

 

I also agree Harper should get in the Hall if he stays healthy until his mid-30s. He's had some injury concerns over the years, so yes that could possibly impact his chances if he can't stay on the field. Is he a first balloter? Depends on the class, but if he keeps up his pace and does have a couple 4-5 WAR seasons, he should be or at least inducted early.

[jaysblue]

Long and pretty much perfect explanation condensed, any team in baseball would take Harper's career in a heartbeat as the #1 #1 in any draft.

 

Yup I don't think anyone would complain. He's had a tremendous and real solid career to date. All I was saying was that he never met the expectations as being one of the best players in baseball. He looked it in 2015 and 2021, though never was able to string together consistent 8-9 WAR seasons.

[Spanky__99]

Yup I don't think anyone would complain. He's had a tremendous and real solid career to date. All I was saying was that he never met the expectations as being one of the best players in baseball. He looked it in 2015 and 2021, though never was able to string together consistent 8-9 WAR seasons.

 

Yeah, he suxxxxxxx... you should trade him, I might be interested.

[jaysblue]

Yeah, he suxxxxxxx... you should trade him, I might be interested.

 

Never said he sucks lol geez. I just said he never matched up to the high expectations and hype when he was drafted and when he was coming up as a prospect.

 

His 2015 and 2021 seasons he was one of the best players in baseball. Take away those two seasons and yeah. Still a very solid career but nothing spectacular as he was built up to be.

 

Harper's WAR excluding his 2015 and 2021 seasons:

 

4.4

4.1

1.6

2.7

4.2

3.0

4.0

1.9

2.4

0.6 (so far this season)

 

Still very solid, but don't consider those numbers as one of the best players in the game.

[Spanky__99]

Never said he sucks lol geez. I just said he never matched up to the high expectations and hype when he was drafted and when he was coming up as a prospect.

 

His 2015 and 2021 seasons he was one of the best players in baseball. Take away those two seasons and yeah. Still a very solid career but nothing spectacular as he was built up to be.

 

I was joking man? Trade me him, now.

[jaysblue]

I was joking man? Trade me him, now.

 

I only own him in BORED. Send me a wise offer.

[G-Snarls]

He's f***ed...

 

 

It's OK

 

He'll be back to trashing minor league clubhouses before the season is over

[Stangstag]

Never said he sucks lol geez. I just said he never matched up to the high expectations and hype when he was drafted and when he was coming up as a prospect.

 

His 2015 and 2021 seasons he was one of the best players in baseball. Take away those two seasons and yeah. Still a very solid career but nothing spectacular as he was built up to be.

 

Harper's WAR excluding his 2015 and 2021 seasons:

 

4.4

4.1

1.6

2.7

4.2

3.0

4.0

1.9

2.4

0.6 (so far this season)

 

Still very solid, but don't consider those numbers as one of the best players in the game.

 

I feel like we’ll be saying this about Vlad when he’s 30 also

[Sorrow]

I feel like we’ll be saying this about Vlad when he’s 30 also

 

I'm going to be surprised if Vlad has that many 4+ win seasons. I think he's going to be a 2.5-3.0 win player with a well above average but not elite bat that someone else should overpay. Thankfully Vlad is still just 24.

[Olerud363]

I feel like weÂ’ll be saying this about Vlad when heÂ’s 30 also

 

It will be true about Vlad though.

 

The problem with Vlad is he's only on pace for 20-25 WAR in his 20s. He's half as valuable as Harper.

 

As a hitter they are actually weirdly similar with their combination of best hitter in the game stretches and then a couple of years looking ordinarily above average. Harper walks way more though and while not great defensively isn't nearly as bad as Vlad, Vlad has as much negative D in 5 years as Harper in 12.

 

With the walks and better defence it works out to Harper being twice as good (just as Bo is twice as good) at least according to the fangraphs.

[Laika]

pick your Vlad career path:

 

 

Note that his age 24 season on this graph is unfairly low. You can just extrapolate his current 0.7 WAR to 2.1 or whatever, if you want. That moves his final dot a bit.

[Olerud363]

pick your Vlad career path:

 

[/b]

 

I like the graph but I am having a hard time choosing who he is most similar too. I think it's because comparing him to other 21st century first basemen isn't quite the right comparison group to figure out what the possibilities are from here.

 

I think the comparison group should be hitting stats (forget D) for teenage minor league phenoms called up at 19 or 20. Trout, Harper, Juan Gonzales (going back a ways), Jayson Heyward actually... who else in the last 30 years. Is there even enough to form a good comparison group. Carlos Correa too maybe?

 

a) Minor league teenage hotshot with holy f***ing s*** numbers, and BA America gave the best prospect in baseball stamp or close to it.

called up at 19 or 20 and played regularly.

 

Overall WAR won't quite be the right number, because some guys will have good D value, but we know Vlad will be a negative D guy, we really just want figure out what the possibilities are as a hitter.

 

Correa is like the bad case (as a hitter), dynamite minor league numbers, best prospect in baseball, crazy good hitter at age 22 (missing 50 games though), then mediocre years after that never regaining age 22 form.

 

Jayson Heyward is extreme negative case. Good hitter at 20-22 (but no dynamite year) then disaster. His D numbers though cover up the medicore hitting a bit.