Around Baseball 2023

[Jays24]

Teo is the perfect platoon/4th Ofer who DH's during the other times. Perfect world, we'd get him and Bellinger, especially if Chappy is out of our range.

 

RF Springer

SS Bo

LF Bellinger

1B Vlad

DH Teo

CF Varsho

C Kirk/Jansen

3B Martinez or cheap 1 year filler

2B Biggio/Schneider

 

Against lefties, we sit Varsho while putting Teo in LF and Jansen/Kirk at DH.

[Stangstag]

Even at his very best Teoscar is still a budget version of Judge so I don't know if these guys are really good comparables. Judge just eclipses everyone else in baseball when it comes to the Statcast quality of contact metrics whereas Teoscar is more in the 80-90th percentile range.

 

Yes, just pointing out you can still have success with a 30% k rate

[max silver]

Yes, just pointing out you can still have success with a 30% k rate

 

Yeah no doubt. Teoscar has long been facing the question of his k rate eventually sapping him of most of his offensive utility. His numbers were down markedly last season but his home/away splits are at least encouraging.

[glory]

I know people don't love Teoscar because he's a clumsy defender and he whiffs too much, but I'd be all over him on a reasonable 3 or 4 year deal. Just think the power is so legit that he's so f***ing close to being elite with the stick. Reminds me of Nelson Cruz around the same age.

 

I don’t know about a 3-4 year deal but he’d be a decent pickup in this market. His numbers were awful at Safeco but he was closer to pre-2023 Teoscar on the road. Of course Rogers Centre dimensions destroyed the Jays offense in 2023 as well so who knows. I just don’t see any decent FA alternatives and Bellinger on a 7 year deal seems like a really bad idea.

[Orgfiller]

How comfortable are you with today’s report that Bellinger’s agent is seeking $200 m plus….. I think a lot of red flags, but upside also.. Kinda on the fence at this point..

 

At $200M someone else can have Bellinger. For that money you’re expecting 4 WAR to be his floor, and it clearly very much is not if the two years prior showed us anything. One whacky homerun celebration and you got a pumpkin on your hands.

[BigCecil]

I'm not predicting him to be Nelson Cruz. But there are similarities. The point is just that Teoscar's upside is obvious, and attainable.

 

He is CLEARLY a better risk vs. reward play than almost any other OF on the market.

 

Also, I bet Nelson Cruz was a hacker to a similar degree relative to the league. Keep in mind the league wide K% rose from like 16% to 24% between 2005 and 2021.

 

I just listened to Eno Sarris analysis on Teo. It was the opposite of this FWIW. In essence he said his high chase, low BB, high whiff hitting profile ages the worst of any.

 

Having said that for a 2 year deal with a 3rd on club option I'd love to see him back. Power is elite and I think he will make some adjustments to stay impactful in the game.

[Frenchsoup]

He's a dh and not a good one.....

[Carlos Danger]

I'm in for some LF Teo, no doubt.

 

Maybe at DH, but LF??? Did you see him gift us as many runs as he scored against us in the SEA series... We need to stick with our solid D and move the needle on offense, not trade one for the other IMO.

[Terminator]

I just listened to Eno Sarris analysis on Teo. It was the opposite of this FWIW. In essence he said his high chase, low BB, high whiff hitting profile ages the worst of any.

 

Having said that for a 2 year deal with a 3rd on club option I'd love to see him back. Power is elite and I think he will make some adjustments to stay impactful in the game.

 

Yeah I think his profile does typically age poorly BUT I would be more concerned about that if we were talking about a big 5 or 6 year deal.

 

His OF defense is much maligned, but I think it's to the point that his defense is actually underrated. He's not a pure DH, he can play a passable corner OF. His base running is similar.

 

He's got a great body (pause) and good physical tools. You'd also normally be concerned about those declining as well but his sprint speed is the same now as it was when he was 24; he seems to keep himself in good shape.

 

I'd be game for a Lourdes-type contract.

[max silver]

Yeah I think his profile does typically age poorly BUT I would be more concerned about that if we were talking about a big 5 or 6 year deal.

 

His OF defense is much maligned, but I think it's to the point that his defense is actually underrated. He's not a pure DH, he can play a passable corner OF. His base running is similar.

 

He's got a great body (pause) and good physical tools. You'd also normally be concerned about those declining as well but his sprint speed is the same now as it was when he was 24; he seems to keep himself in good shape.

 

I'd be game for a Lourdes-type contract.

 

I think Teoscar takes way more flak for his defensive play than is really warranted at this point of his career. I'm not claiming he is a great defender by any means but the level of scorn thrown his way would lead you to believe he's a Soto/Schwarber level of butcher and this simply isn't the case. His last 3 seasons defensive numbers are as follows:

 

2021 -2 DRS/-1 OAA

2022 -2 DRS/-4 OAA

2023 1 DRS/0 OAA

 

The 2022 numbers were at least partially explained by the fact he was playing much of the second half with two bad feet as the result of fouling several pitches off of his feet and playing through the pain. He's typically been around slightly below average in a corner outfield spot in recent seasons and not someone you need to avoid spending any time in the field.

Edited December 18, 2023 by max silver

[Terminator]

I think Teoscar takes way more flak for his defensive play than is really warranted at this point of his career. I'm not claiming he is a great defender by any means but the level of scorn thrown his way would lead you to believe he's a Soto/Schwarber level of butcher and this simply isn't the case. His last 3 seasons defensive numbers are as follows:

 

2021 -2 DRS/-1 OAA

2022 -2 DRS/-4 OAA

2023 1 DRS/0 OAA

 

The 2022 numbers were at least partially explained by the fact he was playing much of the second half with two bat feet as the result of fouling several pitches off of his feet and playing through the pain. He's typically been around slightly below average in a corner outfield spot in recent seasons and not someone you need to avoid spending any time in the field.

 

Yeah I think he takes so much heat for his defense because he has the physical tools to be a great right fielder but he just isn't because of boneheaded players and below average instincts. His base running is similar.

 

So he should be great but instead he's below average and that's going to lead to a more negative perception than what is warranted.

[Terminator]

You could sign Teo to play corner OF and then sign Joc Peterson to DH. Against lefties Teo can DH some and Joe can hit the bench. Something like that would be a good role for Teo IMO.

[max silver]

Yeah I think he takes so much heat for his defense because he has the physical tools to be a great right fielder but he just isn't because of boneheaded players and below average instincts. His base running is similar.

 

So he should be great but instead he's below average and that's going to lead to a more negative perception than what is warranted.

 

It's not hard to see why Teoscar creates the perception of being a butcher as he makes plenty of boneheaded misplays in the outfield. At the same time his physical tools (good speed and plus throwing arm) allow him to make great plays as well on plays where he makes proper reads.

[Laika]

I just listened to Eno Sarris analysis on Teo. It was the opposite of this FWIW. In essence he said his high chase, low BB, high whiff hitting profile ages the worst of any.

 

Having said that for a 2 year deal with a 3rd on club option I'd love to see him back. Power is elite and I think he will make some adjustments to stay impactful in the game.

 

Yeah he's not wrong

 

I just think... he's not as poor of a hitter as you might think by just looking at his K and BB rates. For his last few years with the Blue Jays, most of the time he did not seem like a hopeless hacker to me. Yeah he was aggressive and whiffed his fair share but it seemed like part of the plan.

 

Also, he is athletic. Even though that never translated to positive baserunner or defense, it still might translate to aging well. Like, he's not a lumbering DH.

 

Compare to JD Martinez too I guess. JDM was a -4 BsR and -16 defender at age 30. Power is an old man skill.

 

I am team Teo!

 

It's a market inefficiency if he gets close to Gurriel money. Gurriel is maxing out every ounce of talent for 2 WAR, and Teoscar could still have 4 win seasons if everything clicks.

[Sorrow]

I'd much rather sign Chapman to play 3B. Teoscar to play a corner OF and Pederson to DH vs righties and maybe see if you can get Michael A Taylor as a 4th OF who starts against LHP.

 

I like Bellinger and I genuinely hope he goes on to have a great rest of his career but for the money he's expected to get there are far too many red flags for me.

[Jays24]

I'd much rather sign Chapman to play 3B. Teoscar to play a corner OF and Pederson to DH vs righties and maybe see if you can get Michael A Taylor as a 4th OF who starts against LHP.

 

I like Bellinger and I genuinely hope he goes on to have a great rest of his career but for the money he's expected to get there are far too many red flags for me.

 

Ya the money makes it hard to swallow getting Bellinger. I think Shatkins would be smart to not go 200 without any team opt outs.

 

But man... getting that left handed bat right before vladdy would be ideal. Plus his defense in the corners would still probably give us the best OF defense in the majors.

[G-Snarls]

Braves released Matt Carpenter

[glory]

I'd much rather sign Chapman to play 3B. Teoscar to play a corner OF and Pederson to DH vs righties and maybe see if you can get Michael A Taylor as a 4th OF who starts against LHP.

 

I like Bellinger and I genuinely hope he goes on to have a great rest of his career but for the money he's expected to get there are far too many red flags for me.

 

Between overpaying for Chapman or Bellinger, I’d definitely favor Chapman (though “neither” would be better). If the Jays don’t view Orelvis as a 3B long term then they have an organizational hole there. Between Roden, Barger, maybe Schneider, etc, you could at least envision some OF options on the horizon.

 

Something like Chapman, Hernandez, Brantley, and Taylor is probably reasonably realistic.

[John_Havok]

I just listened to Eno Sarris analysis on Teo. It was the opposite of this FWIW. In essence he said his high chase, low BB, high whiff hitting profile ages the worst of any.

 

Having said that for a 2 year deal with a 3rd on club option I'd love to see him back. Power is elite and I think he will make some adjustments to stay impactful in the game.

 

I think a good comparable of Teo, when you’re looking at risk profile is Chapman.

 

High whiffs, high K, big power and loud contact when he does connect. Thing is, Chapman walks at double the rate,still runs the bases well and is a major plus on D. Teo is average D at best, (likely below average) and still bad baserunner. He’s a passable option if every other well of options runs dry but he wouldn’t be a priority get for me.

 

I don’t even know if I’d want to give him Gurriel Jr money tbh. May end up having to, but I think a 1 year pillow deal might be the better option, with a club option or something.

[Laika]

I think a good comparable of Teo, when you’re looking at risk profile is Chapman.

 

High whiffs, high K, big power and loud contact when he does connect. Thing is, Chapman walks at double the rate,still runs the bases well and is a major plus on D. Teo is average D at best, (likely below average) and still bad baserunner. He’s a passable option if every other well of options runs dry but he wouldn’t be a priority get for me.

 

I don’t even know if I’d want to give him Gurriel Jr money tbh. May end up having to, but I think a 1 year pillow deal might be the better option, with a club option or something.

 

You don't think Hernandez is a significantly better hitter than Chapman? Based on their time in Toronto, I feel like there is a big gap. Chapman looked lost at the plate for long stretcheds of the last two seasons. I don't think Hernandez looked like that, ever, in his final three years in Toronto.

 

In my mind, Chapman is on the precipice of offensive disaster whereas Teo still has all the tools and could even get better despite his age.

[max silver]

I think a good comparable of Teo, when you’re looking at risk profile is Chapman.

 

High whiffs, high K, big power and loud contact when he does connect. Thing is, Chapman walks at double the rate,still runs the bases well and is a major plus on D. Teo is average D at best, (likely below average) and still bad baserunner. He’s a passable option if every other well of options runs dry but he wouldn’t be a priority get for me.

 

I don’t even know if I’d want to give him Gurriel Jr money tbh. May end up having to, but I think a 1 year pillow deal might be the better option, with a club option or something.

 

Teoscar has historically been far more effective at turning the hard contact into production on the field vs Chapman. I really think Chapman needs to tweak his offensive approach a little as the flyball heavy approach with so many of the batted balls hit to the largest part of the park simply isn't a recipe for success.

[John_Havok]

You don't think Hernandez is a significantly better hitter than Chapman? Based on their time in Toronto, I feel like there is a big gap. Chapman looked lost at the plate for long stretcheds of the last two seasons. I don't think Hernandez looked like that, ever, in his final three years in Toronto.

 

In my mind, Chapman is on the precipice of offensive disaster whereas Teo still has all the tools and could even get better despite his age.

 

Naw just simply looking at the peripherals, and noticing the same flaws in both guys from a hitting standpoint. Both whiff alot, both make loud contact when they connect. Teo probably still has a higher upside bat only, but Chappy has a higher floor with the bat and a clear edge everywhere else.

 

Their careers are kind of mirror images of each other's with the bat. Chappy was far better in his first few seasons and dropped off the most recent 3 (clearly injury related), Teo is the opposite but relatively injury free. Both have nearly identical career WRC+

[Frenchsoup]

Sign Chappy I'd love to have him in org for 7 more years and make him and Springer co captains

[Frenchsoup]

Great leadership on that guy, a winner.

[Frenchsoup]

Martin Perez signs for 8 mill...we missed out

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/pirates-martin-perez-agree-to-deal.html

[Frenchsoup]

Wacha got a nice deal...really talented guy...missed out again

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/royals-sign-michael-wacha.html

[BatFlip]

Wacha got a nice deal...really talented guy...missed out again

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/royals-sign-michael-wacha.html

 

 

Contract didn't look half bad on first glance, but Wacha has an opt-out after first year. If he shits the bed he has a $32M guarantee from the Royals, but if puts together some real innings, he simply opts out and looks for more dollars next year.

[Frenchsoup]

Yeah it's a great contract for Wacha. But the Royals got a nice deal I think. Wacha is always going to have that change-up.

[Brownie19]

Martin Perez signs for 8 mill...we missed out

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/pirates-martin-perez-agree-to-deal.html

 

We missed out on what? A s***** 5th starter?

[G-Snarls]

Wacha got a nice deal...really talented guy...missed out again

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/royals-sign-michael-wacha.html

 

Jays were not after Perez or Wacha I am fairly certain....