Around Baseball 2023

[Terminator]

The thing is, we're in the short run now, there's only one week left. Every team is prone to the extreme variability of short run baseball. We're one terrible series against the Yankees from a butt clenching weekend. Keep in mind Texas might pretty much have the West clinched by the end of the Angels series, it will impact how competitive they are against Seattle for the return matchup.

 

This is why I keep saying we're not in yet, playoff probabilities mean little in the short run.

 

Your doomsday posts go in one ear and right out the other pal. The playoffs will be easy to make. 99 percent chance according to the highly respected Fangraphs.

[Masterbather]

Your doomsday posts go in one ear and right out the other pal. The playoffs will be easy to make. 99 percent chance according to the highly respected Fangraphs.

I said nothing unreasonable there, That's okay I'm used to it, when you're right and people don't like it they just tend to call you names around here. Doomsday for spitting facts, lol.

 

Let me know if you ever take a statistics class bud.

[Terminator]

Snell threw 6 scoreless innings tonight. His ERA is down to 2.33.

 

He's got to be the NL frontrunner for the Cy Young award right?

[Terminator]

I said nothing unreasonable there, That's okay I'm used to it, when you're right and people don't like it they just tend to call you names around here. Doomsday for spitting facts, lol.

 

Let me know if you ever take a statistics class bud.

 

Oh I know plenty about statistics pal.

 

For example, the very esteemed Fangraphs dot com web site has a MUCH higher probability of being right on this than someone who uses an alliteration of the very disgusting and loser act that one performs on oneself.

 

How's that for a statistic?

[Jimcanuck]

After Biggio, Belly, etc etc use extreme caution with anything Term says

[Masterbather]

Oh I know plenty about statistics pal.

 

For example, the very esteemed Fangraphs dot com web site has a MUCH higher probability of being right on this than someone who uses an alliteration of the very disgusting and loser act that one performs on oneself.

 

How's that for a statistic?

 

 

And yet the short-term eludes you.

 

I'm well aware of playoff probabilities being calculated, I'm not saying their numbers are wrong for what they are I'm just saying probability itself doesn't mean much in the short run.

 

This is why Kansas city can beat Atlanta in a best of 7 but would almost certainly not beat them in a best of 71.

[Grant77]

Why does Atlanta and Houston/Philly get the better WS odds than Tor and Baltimore and Tampa? If you take projected matchups and records or run differentials, doesn't really add up that way either. Are they saying the NL and Houston is better than the AL East?

 

I believe it's because fangraphs deems that Baltimore has been quite lucky and isn't as talented as their record indicates. Of course, Seattle was one of the luckiest teams in history last year and it kept going into the playoffs, so who the hell knows.

[Olerud363]

I believe it's because fangraphs deems that Baltimore has been quite lucky and isn't as talented as their record indicates. Of course, Seattle was one of the luckiest teams in history last year and it kept going into the playoffs, so who the hell knows.

 

You are truly an evil moron. Seattle was not one of the luckiest teams in history last year. What the hell is wrong with you?

 

They had a 89 win run differential and were a slightly above average hitting team. They also replaced Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen, the two guys with low strike-out rates who hurt their team fWAR, with high fWAR pitchers.

 

Why the hell do you need to bring this up out of the blue just to f***ing troll? 2014 Kansas City Royals, 1987 Twins, were lucky.

 

The 2022 Seattle Mariners are an ordinary playoff team with an ordinary run differential, who played in a pitchers in a pitchers year.

[jaysblue]

World Series odds according to Bet 365:

 

Braves - 3.50

 

Dodgers - 5.00

 

Orioles - 8.00

 

Rangers - 8.00

 

Rays - 11.00

 

Astros - 12.00

 

Phillies - 14.00

 

Blue Jays - 17.00

 

Twins - 19.00

 

Brewers - 21.00

 

Mariners - 21.00

 

D'Backs - 46.00

 

Cubs - 51.00

 

Marlins - 67.00

 

Reds - 101.00

[jaysblue]

Snell threw 6 scoreless innings tonight. His ERA is down to 2.33.

 

He's got to be the NL frontrunner for the Cy Young award right?

 

I think so. His 2.25 ERA really stands out from guys like Strider, Gallen and Wheeler. Plus he has 234 K's. Only negative is the 99 walks.

 

Strider has a chance at 20 wins, but his ERA at 3.81 would be the highest ever for any Cy Young winner. If he was able to lower his ERA around the 3.50 mark, to follow up with 20 wins and 274 K's, I think it would have been close. I think Strider has been the better pitcher despite what the ERA says, but the voters will go for Snell.

[Olerud363]

The thing is, we're in the short run now, there's only one week left. Every team is prone to the extreme variability of short run baseball. We're one terrible series against the Yankees from a butt clenching weekend. Keep in mind Texas might pretty much have the West clinched by the end of the Angels series, it will impact how competitive they are against Seattle for the return matchup.

 

This is why I keep saying we're not in yet, playoff probabilities mean little in the short run.

 

 

The last 2 maybe last 3 games in Seattle probably won't mean anything to Texas. So assume Seattle wins last 3, Texas wins first. Houston wins 2/3 and wins out.

 

Seattle 88, Houston 90, Texas 91.

 

I think Texas does not have the tie breaker against Houston. In the scenario that Seattle wins 89 and sweeps Texas every game in the Texas series will be important

 

Seattle 89, Houston 90, Texas 90

 

The above scenario is more unlikely though because Texas will have to play hard to the end.

[Olerud363]

And yet the short-term eludes you.

 

I'm well aware of playoff probabilities being calculated, I'm not saying their numbers are wrong for what they are I'm just saying probability itself doesn't mean much in the short run.

 

This is why Kansas city can beat Atlanta in a best of 7 but would almost certainly not beat them in a best of 71.

 

 

I don't think that's quite the logic. Probabilities are based on each game being independent, but if each game probability is related slightly to surrounding games the probabilities will be off a bit.

 

For example Jays have a 98% chance of making the playoff if each game is independent, but if several games are related because of injuries, bullpen use patterns (one team blows out their bullpen in a close loss affecting downstream games), psychological factors or the Texas Rangers clinching and playing as drunk as f***, then the 98% is too high, and it becomes really hard to model the true percentages. Maybe it is really 90% or something, given there could be correlation between the games.

[Olerud363]

I don't think that's quite the logic. Probabilities are based on each game being independent, but if each game probability is related slightly to surrounding games the probabilities will be off a bit.

 

For example Jays have a 98% chance of making the playoff if each game is independent, but if several games are related because of injuries, bullpen use patterns (one team blows out their bullpen in a close loss affecting downstream games), psychological factors or the Texas Rangers clinching and playing as drunk as f***, then the 98% is too high, and it becomes really hard to model the true percentages. Maybe it is really 90% or something, given there could be correlation between the games.

 

 

Arizona could also be playing a couple of games drunk as f***, so the scenario where Jays lose a close f***ing intense hard fought game again Tampa while Houston and Seattle coast to 17-3 wins against drunk as f*** position players and the a 28th guy long man from the PCL just called up to fill some innings, while the rest of the team is drunk as f***, is a possibility.

 

However (If I am right) the slightly good news is Houston has tie breaker over the Texas, and Florida has tie breaker over Arizona.

 

This lowers the number of playing an already clinched and drunk as f*** opponent for Houston and Seattle over the weekend.

 

So we need to hope Florida wins (a true 'lucky' team) and Arizona loses a bit this week to get Arizona playing with some passion and not drunk as f***.

[mellowgold]

I believe it's because fangraphs deems that Baltimore has been quite lucky and isn't as talented as their record indicates. Of course, Seattle was one of the luckiest teams in history last year and it kept going into the playoffs, so who the hell knows.

 

Your disdain for Seattle is exceeded only by your raging delirious loathing for anything Boston-reated.

[Olerud363]

Your disdain for Seattle is exceeded only by your raging delirious loathing for anything Boston-reated.

 

 

You just have to laugh at this point. I wasn't even involved in the original genesis of this issue, but I heard that in 2021 Grant got in an argument about Seattle, and in 2021 he was 100% correct that Seattle was lucky, very lucky to win 90. Some ******* must have argued against Grant, in 2021, when Grant was 100% right, and then set in motion 10 years of Grant posting that Seattle in lucky no matter what.

 

Then through 2022 the Seattle roster changed a lot so that by the end of 2022 they were no longer a bad team, however Grant couldn't deal with this and cherry picked the low batting average, and the low fWAR of Flexen and Gonzales (even though those 2 had already been replaced by high WAR rookies for important innings).

 

The Boston thing is also mystifying. I've never actually even heard whether he's ever been to Boston and had a bad experience. I've travelled to Boston at least 50 times, for baseball games, business, the Boston Marathon and had a 100% positive experience every single time. I was even there during the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing (I finished the race about 90 minutes before it happened and was far away from the finish line), the way that was handled was amazing. Public transportation was shut down and they had to get 40,000 runners and spectators home. They managed to do it with a lot of patience and professionalism.

 

Anyway what I am saying is Grant's description of Boston is completely opposite of what I've experienced, literally 50 times. Now I will say I've experienced the 'privileged' part of Boston (baseball games, biotech companies, the marathon), so maybe Grant stayed in a bad part, got attacked by the Irish mob and justifiably hates Boston... I don't know. Never heard the story behind his irrational Boston Hate.

[Masterbather]

I don't think that's quite the logic. Probabilities are based on each game being independent, but if each game probability is related slightly to surrounding games the probabilities will be off a bit.

 

For example Jays have a 98% chance of making the playoff if each game is independent, but if several games are related because of injuries, bullpen use patterns (one team blows out their bullpen in a close loss affecting downstream games), psychological factors or the Texas Rangers clinching and playing as drunk as f***, then the 98% is too high, and it becomes really hard to model the true percentages. Maybe it is really 90% or something, given there could be correlation between the games.

 

I understand everything you said, and yes the modeling probably doesn't factor in things like clinching and the factors that might come into play. Nonetheless, the greater point is there's no way to predict what a team is going to do in the next six games because it's so short-term in nature. It's easier to predict what a team will do over the next 60 games because it takes the flukiness out of it. You can't take the flukiness out of six games very easily. If the Blue Jays go 1-5 and miss, you can't blame the models for being way off because there's a limitation to their predictive ability. It would be disappointing and perhaps surprising but by the same token nobody can be blown away by a strangely bad week because they just happen sometimes. We all understand the randomness of week to week results in a 162 game season.

[BTS]

You just have to laugh at this point. I wasn't even involved in the original genesis of this issue, but I heard that in 2021 Grant got in an argument about Seattle, and in 2021 he was 100% correct that Seattle was lucky, very lucky to win 90. Some ******* must have argued against Grant, in 2021, when Grant was 100% right, and then set in motion 10 years of Grant posting that Seattle in lucky no matter what.

 

Then through 2022 the Seattle roster changed a lot so that by the end of 2022 they were no longer a bad team, however Grant couldn't deal with this and cherry picked the low batting average, and the low fWAR of Flexen and Gonzales (even though those 2 had already been replaced by high WAR rookies for important innings).

 

The Boston thing is also mystifying. I've never actually even heard whether he's ever been to Boston and had a bad experience. I've travelled to Boston at least 50 times, for baseball games, business, the Boston Marathon and had a 100% positive experience every single time. I was even there during the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing (I finished the race about 90 minutes before it happened and was far away from the finish line), the way that was handled was amazing. Public transportation was shut down and they had to get 40,000 runners and spectators home. They managed to do it with a lot of patience and professionalism.

 

Anyway what I am saying is Grant's description of Boston is completely opposite of what I've experienced, literally 50 times. Now I will say I've experienced the 'privileged' part of Boston (baseball games, biotech companies, the marathon), so maybe Grant stayed in a bad part, got attacked by the Irish mob and justifiably hates Boston... I don't know. Never heard the story behind his irrational Boston Hate.

 

The Boston thing is weird. I know a couple people who say the same negative things about Boston (they've never visited the city). I've been there several times, and it's one of my favourite cities. People have always been really friendly, and often at Fenway people will want to chat about hockey when they see my Jays hat.

[Masterbather]

Arizona could also be playing a couple of games drunk as f***, so the scenario where Jays lose a close f***ing intense hard fought game again Tampa while Houston and Seattle coast to 17-3 wins against drunk as f*** position players and the a 28th guy long man from the PCL just called up to fill some innings, while the rest of the team is drunk as f***, is a possibility.

 

However (If I am right) the slightly good news is Houston has tie breaker over the Texas, and Florida has tie breaker over Arizona.

 

This lowers the number of playing an already clinched and drunk as f*** opponent for Houston and Seattle over the weekend.

 

So we need to hope Florida wins (a true 'lucky' team) and Arizona loses a bit this week to get Arizona playing with some passion and not drunk as f***.

 

It's likely that Tampa will have nothing to play for against Toronto, but they're still Tampa Bay. I just can never trust them to be "easy". As far as Texas and Arizona, I have been considering the different clinching possibilities you have mentioned, it's so difficult to say right now because so much will be determined in the next 48 hours.

[Brownie19]

The Boston thing is weird. I know a couple people who say the same negative things about Boston (they've never visited the city). I've been there several times, and it's one of my favourite cities. People have always been really friendly, and often at Fenway people will want to chat about hockey when they see my Jays hat.

 

I had the same experience. I loved my trip to Boston and would love to go back.

[Laika]

Pretty sure Grant is just an adopted Sault Ste Marie Italian and dislikes Boston for cultural reasons. Dirty f***ing Irish.

[Sammy225]

The Boston thing is weird. I know a couple people who say the same negative things about Boston (they've never visited the city). I've been there several times, and it's one of my favourite cities. People have always been really friendly, and often at Fenway people will want to chat about hockey when they see my Jays hat.

 

I went there for a series and they were so friendly and i had a great time. A lot of places if you are good with them they are good with you.... Long story short don't go being a dick.

[mellowgold]

I really enjoyed Boston as well. I will say though that while I was at Fenway, there was an obviously Amish father and daughter sitting beside us who had somehow won tickets to the game. It was their first ever baseball game and it was pretty clear they didn't really understand many of the rules. A couple of dicks behind us were chirping them so bad that they had to leave in like the third inning. That said, I'm also not naive enough to believe that this behaviour couldn't have happened at any ballpark at any time.

[connorp]

I actually normally hate big cities. I like the vibe about Boston. I’m sure there is a slightly higher percentage of “toxic white males” than some other cities, but it’s nothing close to taking away from the city. I know there’s a few groups I’m not fond of as, but a little more than normal isn’t going to move the needle in any given city

 

If it wasn’t for winter, I’d consider settling in/around Boston long-term

[wilko]

Snell threw 6 scoreless innings tonight. His ERA is down to 2.33.

 

He's got to be the NL frontrunner for the Cy Young award right?

 

Probably.

[Brownie19]

Cool story - this guy looks absolutely filthy. Where is Ricky T to be 'that guy' for us in the playoffs?

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hes-thrown-one-major-league-inning-is-orion-kerkering-already-one-of-the-phillies-best-relievers/

 

This guy could have a K-Rod type impact in the playoffs as a rookie.

[TheHurl]

The Boston thing is weird. I know a couple people who say the same negative things about Boston (they've never visited the city). I've been there several times, and it's one of my favourite cities. People have always been really friendly, and often at Fenway people will want to chat about hockey when they see my Jays hat.

 

I have tried telling people that the Jays have some pretty insufferable fans as well (probably in greater quantities these days).Everyone will have their own experience, but I would bet the majority are psoitive. I will hate the entire city of Philly because an incident in 1981, but truly I should just hate one guy. Every team has terrible and great fans, except for the white sox who have exactly 12 fans and they are all terrible

[Brownie19]

I have tried telling people that the Jays have some pretty insufferable fans as well (probably in greater quantities these days).Everyone will have their own experience, but I would bet the majority are psoitive. I will hate the entire city of Philly because an incident in 1981, but truly I should just hate one guy. Every team has terrible and great fans, except for the white sox who have exactly 12 fans and they are all terrible

 

I was an avid White Sox fan from about 1991 through 2014 before officially cutting ties with them - so I think they're down to 11 fans now.

[mphenhef]

I really enjoyed Boston as well. I will say though that while I was at Fenway, there was an obviously Amish father and daughter sitting beside us who had somehow won tickets to the game. It was their first ever baseball game and it was pretty clear they didn't really understand many of the rules. A couple of dicks behind us were chirping them so bad that they had to leave in like the third inning. That said, I'm also not naive enough to believe that this behaviour couldn't have happened at any ballpark at any time.

 

they do call them M*******s for a reason. I haven't been to that many ballparks but Fenway is the only one I have personally seen fights break out at.

[wilko]

The Boston thing is weird. I know a couple people who say the same negative things about Boston (they've never visited the city). I've been there several times, and it's one of my favourite cities. People have always been really friendly, and often at Fenway people will want to chat about hockey when they see my Jays hat.

 

I had an excellent time in Boston watching them play the Jays in the 90's at Fenway. Their fans were hilarious and I was basically one of the few people wearing Jays gear at the time (in my section at least).

[John_Havok]

I had an excellent time in Boston watching them play the Jays in the 90's at Fenway. Their fans were hilarious and I was basically one of the few people wearing Jays gear at the time (in my section at least).

 

I loved Boston as a city when I was there, even getting to Fenway on the train and walking to the park was fantastic. Once inside, the experience went from A+ to complete dog s***. Fenway is a giant urine stain