Around Baseball 2023

[Laika]

I like the graph but I am having a hard time choosing who he is most similar too. I think it's because comparing him to other 21st century first basemen isn't quite the right comparison group to figure out what the possibilities are from here.

 

I think the comparison group should be hitting stats (forget D) for teenage minor league phenoms called up at 19 or 20. Trout, Harper, Juan Gonzales (going back a ways), Jayson Heyward actually... who else in the last 30 years. Is there even enough to form a good comparison group. Carlos Correa too maybe?

 

a) Minor league teenage hotshot with holy f***ing s*** numbers, and BA America gave the best prospect in baseball stamp or close to it.

called up at 19 or 20 and played regularly.

 

Overall WAR won't quite be the right number, because some guys will have good D value, but we know Vlad will be a negative D guy, we really just want figure out what the possibilities are as a hitter.

 

Correa is like the bad case (as a hitter), dynamite minor league numbers, best prospect in baseball, crazy good hitter at age 22 (missing 50 games though), then mediocre years after that never regaining age 22 form.

 

Jayson Heyward is extreme negative case. Good hitter at 20-22 (but no dynamite year) then disaster. His D numbers though cover up the medicore hitting a bit.

 

Could look up players with 6+ WAR seasons at 22 or younger and just use that sample...

 

That would exclude all of these fat 1B types and add in many of those hot shots.

 

But then you are being unfair to Vlad because his talent profile is not the same given his body and s***..

[Spanky__99]

I don't think I've ever heard Correa and mediocre lumped together before, lol.

[Olerud363]

I don't think I've ever heard Correa and mediocre lumped together before, lol.

 

Hitting wise after his age 22 152 wRC+ season his wRC+ are 101, 142, 94, 133, 140 and 87 in 50 games this year.

 

A lot of injuries in there and some really long stretches of being below average. Overall above average as a hitter though so 'mediocre' is probably unfair.

 

Some semantics there but meant more like 'mediocre' given where he was as a minor leauger and at age 22.

[jaysblue]

Hitting wise after his age 22 152 wRC+ season his wRC+ are 101, 142, 94, 133, 140 and 87 in 50 games this year.

 

A lot of injuries in there and some really long stretches of being below average. Overall above average as a hitter though so 'mediocre' is probably unfair.

 

Some semantics there but meant more like 'mediocre' given where he was as a minor leauger and at age 22.

 

Yeah have to be careful which words you use to describe players on here or else the grammar police will pull out a dictionary definition of that word to prove a point like Orgfiller was trying to do with me when I was discussing Harper's career to date. Spanky though wasn't trying to level up you.

 

Correa has been a solid bat and player, but definitely you can argue he hasn't reached those lofty expectations to when he first came up. He's never been the same type of bat since his age 22 season and given his age now and injury history, he unlikely will ever again. The Twins will be lucky if they get a couple 130-140 wRC+ seasons out of him moving forward, though doubt it. He's had a solid career to date, but yeah given to where he was as a prospect and his age 22 season, he hasn't been a consistent elite star player in this league as many scouts and people thought he was going to be.

[Laika]

alright here is a new sample for Vlad comps

 

this is players since 1990 with at least one season age 22 or younger and 5+ WAR (picked 5 WAR to capture some guys on the "other" side of Vlad's 6 WAR year).

 

this should capture almost everybody in the last three+ decades who was demonstrably very good at a very young age i.e. most of the hot shot prospects who did not flop. I guess I could have expanded the age cutoff to 23 as well to scoop more guys, but I didn't think of it.

 

i have excluded A-Rod and Trout on purpose just to make the graph more readable. and because they are kind of incomparable legends, anyway...

 

 

We have revealed a "fun" comp for Vlad in Pablo Sandoval!

 

Other than Pablo the current "trajectory" comps might be Tulo and Devers...

[Omar]

He's f***ed...

 

 

Is it that time of year already? Chris Sale yearly injury break.

[Laika]

In sum, I think this is the takeaway:

 

we all hoped Vlad could be like the guys in my second picture, the "phenoms" (so, a 50 career WAR expectation)

 

but it is looking like he will be more like the guys in my first picture, the "good 1B" (so, a 30 career WAR expectation)

 

but if he can get back on track with the stick and mature a bit, he still has a realistic chance to perform like the upper bound of the fat 1B category. that means like Goldy, Votto, Freeman... a 50 WAR career.

[Omar]

In sum, I think this is the takeaway:

 

we all hoped Vlad could be like the guys in my second picture, the "phenoms" (so, a 50 career WAR expectation)

 

but it is looking like he will be more like the guys in my first picture, the "good 1B" (so, a 30 career WAR expectation)

 

but if he can get back on track with the stick and mature a bit, he still has a realistic chance to perform like the upper bound of the fat 1B category. that means like Goldy, Votto, Freeman... a 50 WAR career.

 

The top graph has 19 players in the legend but I only see ~12 lines of data points?

[Laika]

The top graph has 19 players in the legend but I only see ~12 lines of data points?

 

they are all on there, it's just hard to see the kids with only a few years who are still near the origin. vlad, tatis, etc.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx <-- this is the tool

[Omar]

they are all on there, it's just hard to see the kids with only a few years who are still near the origin. vlad, tatis, etc.

 

Ah, I see.

 

Great. So we have a glorified Evan Longoria on our hands.

[Orgfiller]

Yeah have to be careful which words you use to describe players on here or else the grammar police will pull out a dictionary definition of that word to prove a point like Orgfiller was trying to do with me when I was discussing Harper's career to date.

 

Man I don't know why you're being so combative about this. Here are your own words:

 

looking over his career numbers, he's definitely been overhyped and overrated.

Trout obviously went to another level and lived up to those expectations as one of the best players all time in baseball whereas Harper has had a solid career, though never lived up to the lofty expectations when he was coming up as a prospect.

...

There was definitely more hype surrounding Harper when he made the Show.

...Though don't think he lived up to all the hype when he was coming up as a prospect.

 

So your whole argument was that Harper was overhyped and never met his expectations. My argument is that can't be true, given that he's well on track for a HOF career with multiple MVPs. If he was overhyped then by definition he's been a disappointment relative to expectations right?

 

Trout didn't live up to expectations, he exceeded them. Unless you think it's fair to expect all-time great performance from a prospect as they're coming up. I think merely settling for average HOF means they did pretty well for the expectations set on them.

[G-Snarls]

As of right now the Arizona Diamondbacks are tied with the Dodgers for the best record in the National League

 

Wow

[Captain Adama]

As of right now the Arizona Diamondbacks are tied with the Dodgers for the best record in the National League

 

Wow

 

The Diamondback have arguably the best young pitcher in baseball and a deep bullpen. Pretty good lineup as well. They're probably overperforming, but not by much.

[G-Snarls]

The Diamondback have arguably the best young pitcher in baseball and a deep bullpen. Pretty good lineup as well. They're probably overperforming, but not by much.

 

Gallen is nuts, yes

 

Is Corbin Carroll really this good???

[Jimcanuck]

Gallen is nuts, yes

 

Is Corbin Carroll really this good???

 

Yes he is. His MLB performance is not a surprise based on his MiLB results.

[Stangstag]

Gallen is nuts, yes

 

Is Corbin Carroll really this good???

 

Oh god I wish Carroll was a BJ. Im glad Varsho is here and im certain he’ll be better, but Carroll is face of the franchise type guy. He’d slot in beautiful at the top of the lineup.

 

Wonder if there was any way we could’ve added to the Varsho package to get Carroll instead…

[Spanky__99]

Oh god I wish Carroll was a BJ. Im glad Varsho is here and im certain he’ll be better, but Carroll is face of the franchise type guy. He’d slot in beautiful at the top of the lineup.

 

Wonder if there was any way we could’ve added to the Varsho package to get Carroll instead…

 

They weren't even entertaining the idea, likely Moreno and Tiedeman.

[Stangstag]

They weren't even entertaining the idea, likely Moreno and Tiedeman.

 

Might’ve been worth it still. Time will tell

[John_Havok]

Oh god I wish Carroll was a BJ. Im glad Varsho is here and im certain he’ll be better, but Carroll is face of the franchise type guy. He’d slot in beautiful at the top of the lineup.

 

Wonder if there was any way we could’ve added to the Varsho package to get Carroll instead…

 

There would be zero reason for Arizona to do that if they saw Carroll as the cornerstone. Would be no different than some team coming in 2019-2020 off-season and checking on Bo, when the team is clearly in the upswing with multiple young well above average pieces they want to build around. No team gonna move those kinds of players and set themselves back a year or two.

 

The first thought of course is well what if they offered X, Y and Z from their farm + a really solid on field guy….and the answer is any team looking to acquire young cornerstones likely don’t have anything like it to offer back, or they wouldn’t be looking for the young corner stone to begin with….or they’re in the same position as the team they’re trying to get the cornerstone from, which makes for bad trading matchup in the first place.

[Spanky__99]

There would be zero reason for Arizona to do that if they saw Carroll as the cornerstone. Would be no different than some team coming in 2019-2020 off-season and checking on Bo, when the team is clearly in the upswing with multiple young well above average pieces they want to build around. No team gonna move those kinds of players and set themselves back a year or two.

 

The first thought of course is well what if they offered X, Y and Z from their farm + a really solid on field guy….and the answer is any team looking to acquire young cornerstones likely don’t have anything like it to offer back, or they wouldn’t be looking for the young corner stone to begin with….or they’re in the same position as the team they’re trying to get the cornerstone from, which makes for bad trading matchup in the first place.

 

In short, they weren't entertaining the idea. lol

[Stangstag]

There would be zero reason for Arizona to do that if they saw Carroll as the cornerstone. Would be no different than some team coming in 2019-2020 off-season and checking on Bo, when the team is clearly in the upswing with multiple young well above average pieces they want to build around. No team gonna move those kinds of players and set themselves back a year or two.

 

The first thought of course is well what if they offered X, Y and Z from their farm + a really solid on field guy….and the answer is any team looking to acquire young cornerstones likely don’t have anything like it to offer back, or they wouldn’t be looking for the young corner stone to begin with….or they’re in the same position as the team they’re trying to get the cornerstone from, which makes for bad trading matchup in the first place.

 

Yes I know im dreaming

[Spanky__99]

The Rays have 5 guys in the BA's top 25, that hurts.

[connorp]

The Rays have 5 guys in the BA's top 25, that hurts.

 

Bradley and then Mead and Manzardo, who I’ve seen are struggling (making my Bieber trade hurt less)

Who are the other guys?

[connorp]

Mmm I had heard of Carson Williams. How there’s 5 in Top 25 idk

[Spanky__99]

Bradley and then Mead and Manzardo, who I’ve seen are struggling (making my Bieber trade hurt less)

Who are the other guys?

 

Manzardo - 8

Caminero - 9

Bradley -23

Mead - 25

Baz - 26

 

Williams is 115

[connorp]

That’s certainly aggressive

[Spanky__99]

That’s certainly aggressive

 

To connorp rankings?

[bluejaysinternNo5]

I know it would never happen but I was kind of hoping for Vlad for Corbin over the winter.

[jaysblue]

Man I don't know why you're being so combative about this. Here are your own words:

 

 

 

 

So your whole argument was that Harper was overhyped and never met his expectations. My argument is that can't be true, given that he's well on track for a HOF career with multiple MVPs. If he was overhyped then by definition he's been a disappointment relative to expectations right?

 

Trout didn't live up to expectations, he exceeded them. Unless you think it's fair to expect all-time great performance from a prospect as they're coming up. I think merely settling for average HOF means they did pretty well for the expectations set on them.

 

You were the one being combative from the beginning as you always are!

 

Yes, Harper has been overhyped and never met his expectations as being one of the best players in baseball. Take away his 2015 and 2021 season, and we probably don't even have the Hall of Fame conversation. He was considered the next phenom coming up. Maybe that wasn't fair by other baseball writers and scouts. Anyways, he's still been a very solid player and yes likely will make the Hall of Fame if he can stay healthy and put together a couple more productive seasons. If he retired today or started hitting like the Angels version of Albert Pujols, he likely doesn't. What is wrong with stating that?

[jaysblue]

As of right now the Arizona Diamondbacks are tied with the Dodgers for the best record in the National League

 

Wow

 

D'backs were my pick to win the NL West. I mean it's still early though they've done a great job thus far, considering some of their young pitchers have been meh.