Around Baseball 2023

[Spanky__99]

Man, the first week of Spring Training was absurd. People losing their minds over every violation, acting like the game was being irreparably damaged.

 

I think it really was just Jaysallmighty.

[Spanky__99]

Have a day Judge, 2 bombs and just took one away on Teo.

[jaysblue]

Should have just signed him to the 7 year contract we gave Berrios instead of making 2 poor trades

 

Jays also at the time were rebuilding so they had to move Stroman.

 

Stroman can opt out after this season, so if the Cubs aren't contending, he could be available at the trade deadline. Wouldn't be a bad pickup at all, though not sure the Jays would have the pieces to land him.

 

Looks good:

 

Gausman

Stroman

Bassitt

Berrios

Kikuchi/Ryu/Manoah

[Spanky__99]

Jays also at the time were rebuilding so they had to move Stroman.

 

Stroman can opt out after this season, so if the Cubs aren't contending, he could be available at the trade deadline. Wouldn't be a bad pickup at all, though not sure the Jays would have the pieces to land him.

 

Looks good:

 

Gausman

Stroman

Bassitt

Berrios

Kikuchi/Ryu/Manoah

 

Never will happen.

[jaysblue]

Never will happen.

 

Yeah I know.

 

He definitely would bring some excitement and energy to the clubhouse. He's performed in the Postseason before and has pitched in big games. Toronto fans would embrace him coming back again. Adding an arm like him would really solidify the rotation down the stretch and in the Postseason.

[Brownie19]

Man, the first week of Spring Training was absurd. People losing their minds over every violation, acting like the game was being irreparably damaged.

 

Honestly though - can we all agree that players, umps, etc. have all adjusted now and you rarely see any violations? It's the same as the takeout slide rule. People lost their s*** for like 2 weeks then I didn't hear another f***ing word about it.

 

Are there still people out there stewing over shorter games, claiming that if they buy tickets, they want to see a 4 hour game? Or did people finally come to their senses (or just give up)?

[jaysblue]

The pace of baseball games has greatly improved and I've been a fan. 9 inning games should finish just under 3 hours, they shouldn't be touching nearly 4.

 

Only thing is sometimes when I tune into a 7PM game start time at like 8-830PMish, it could sometimes already be in the 5th inning or later haha.

[Spanky__99]

Honestly though - can we all agree that players, umps, etc. have all adjusted now and you rarely see any violations? It's the same as the takeout slide rule. People lost their s*** for like 2 weeks then I didn't hear another f***ing word about it.

 

Are there still people out there stewing over shorter games, claiming that if they buy tickets, they want to see a 4 hour game? Or did people finally come to their senses (or just give up)?

 

lol... epic.

[John_Havok]

The pace of baseball games has greatly improved and I've been a fan. 9 inning games should finish just under 3 hours, they shouldn't be touching nearly 4.

 

Only thing is sometimes when I tune into a 7PM game start time at like 8-830PMish, it could sometimes already be in the 5th inning or later haha.

 

I have that same problem, I’m out west so for me it’s 5pm start…can catch the first 1-1.5 innings before I leave at 5:30, drive home I miss an inning, then watch till about the 4th before going to the gym, by the time I get home it’s always 9th inning or over.

[wilko]

I have that same problem, I’m out west so for me it’s 5pm start…can catch the first 1-1.5 innings before I leave at 5:30, drive home I miss an inning, then watch till about the 4th before going to the gym, by the time I get home it’s always 9th inning or over.

 

Are you even a fan? You need to retool your priorities man.

[Brownie19]

Just realized that Ben Joyce made his debut yesterday. Cool.

[Stangstag]

I have that same problem, I’m out west so for me it’s 5pm start…can catch the first 1-1.5 innings before I leave at 5:30, drive home I miss an inning, then watch till about the 4th before going to the gym, by the time I get home it’s always 9th inning or over.

 

Everything makes sense now

[MikeM3]

AA calling up Smith-Shawver lol. What a beast GM he's become

[Spanky__99]

AA calling up Smith-Shawver lol. What a beast GM he's become

 

Wow.

[keggy]

AA calling up Smith-Shawver lol. What a beast GM he's become

 

I don't think Anthopoulos loves anything more than he loves developing right handed power arms.

[John_Havok]

I don't think Anthopoulos loves anything more than he loves developing right handed power arms.

 

I think he loves signing guys with less than 2 years service time to ridiculously team friendly deals even more.

[Orgfiller]

The Cubs have held to Rays to 1 run over 2 games. Win both, although barely both times.

[L54]

Jays upcoming four game series vs the Astros is going to be huge. You have to split to keep pace. Currently 3.5 back of Houston for the last WC spot

[jaysblue]

Yankees also heating up now. Jays can't afford to fall behind.

[jaysblue]

AA calling up Smith-Shawver lol. What a beast GM he's become

 

Big mistake letting AA go after the 2015 season.

[JaysAllMighty]

Big mistake letting AA go after the 2015 season.

 

It was AA's decision to leave.

[mphenhef]

The Cubs have held to Rays to 1 run over 2 games. Win both, although barely both times.

 

Interesting. Maybe the Cubs figured out their sign stealing system?

[mphenhef]

It was AA's decision to leave.

 

It was, but it was due to Shapiro publicly criticizing him (for not building a sustainable winner and I can't imagine anyone would argue Atkins is doing better than AA at that now) and then taking away all autonomy from him privately.

[Laika]

I dunno if fellating AA makes sense. Harris and Grissom suck, they may have been rushed. The farm is really thin in Atlanta.

[Olerud363]

Juan Soto is now perfectly fine hitting .268 .430 .500 after a slow start and on pace for 7 WAR or so. Could end up with a monster season if he keeps hot and the slow start gets washed away. He is at a 159 wRC+ which is above his career average.

 

Seems like after all these years players with Soto's skill set are still under-rated. Same could be said about Kirk, Howritz and even Biggio.

 

Look at how many were having the 'Is Soto a top 5 hitter even anymore?" 3 weeks ago.

 

I think there is prejudice against on base guys still, it went away for a while, but for some reason came back and people like a .190 hitter with a .224 on base and a few 110 mphers over on base guys.

 

Like Juan Soto got fixed because he's Juan Soto and he just plays every day, no ones going to bench him on account of a .280 .430 .530 lifetime triple slash... so if he hit's .190 for 6 weeks no worries.

 

But Biggio, Kirk can't do that. All of a sudden people hate on them. How do we know if they just played Biggio all the time he wouldn't regress to his 2020 level, given consistent playing like Soto and encouraged to live his life as a patient .370 on base guy...

[Olerud363]

Juan Soto true talent level - .290 .440 .550

Caven Biggio true talent level - .250 .370 .400

 

We've seen Juan Soto can hit .190 .350 .350 for 6 weeks but rebound, Biggio isn't as good so his slump is .140 .290 .330, so even if like Juan he would rebound to true talent level given consistent playing time, his slump results in termination of most playing time and he doesn't ever get the at bats to recover.

[TheHurl]

I dunno if fellating AA makes sense. Harris and Grissom suck, they may have been rushed. The farm is really thin in Atlanta.

 

I saw some post where if he only signed the Albies and Acuna extensions (and made all other free agent moves) they would be $35M under the luxury tax instead of over it. And they'd still have the same core until 2026. Certainty is great but it isn't always value.

[BigCecil]

I dunno if fellating AA makes sense. Harris and Grissom suck, they may have been rushed. The farm is really thin in Atlanta.

 

Wonder who will start a “if you had to fellate, who would you rather fellate as GM? Poll AA or Atkins”

[Laika]

Juan Soto is now perfectly fine hitting .268 .430 .500 after a slow start and on pace for 7 WAR or so. Could end up with a monster season if he keeps hot and the slow start gets washed away. He is at a 159 wRC+ which is above his career average.

 

Seems like after all these years players with Soto's skill set are still under-rated. Same could be said about Kirk, Howritz and even Biggio.

 

Look at how many were having the 'Is Soto a top 5 hitter even anymore?" 3 weeks ago.

 

I think there is prejudice against on base guys still, it went away for a while, but for some reason came back and people like a .190 hitter with a .224 on base and a few 110 mphers over on base guys.

 

Like Juan Soto got fixed because he's Juan Soto and he just plays every day, no ones going to bench him on account of a .280 .430 .530 lifetime triple slash... so if he hit's .190 for 6 weeks no worries.

 

But Biggio, Kirk can't do that. All of a sudden people hate on them. How do we know if they just played Biggio all the time he wouldn't regress to his 2020 level, given consistent playing like Soto and encouraged to live his life as a patient .370 on base guy...

 

It's a good point.

 

There are certain kinds of hitting talent that take longer to stabilize to the true talent level. This means that players who possess these talents may be unfairly discriminated against when/if they struggle for short periods of time, depending on the stage of their career.

 

These are some commonly used "50% stabilization points" for offensive stats:

 

80 BIP: GB rate

80 BIP: FB rate

600 BIP: LD rate

820 BIP: BABIP

 

60 PA: Strikeout rate

120 PA: Walk rate

240 PA: HBP rate

290 PA: Single rate

1610 PA: XBH rate

170 PA: HR rate

910 AB: AVG

460 PA: OBP

320 AB: SLG

160 AB: ISO

 

 

So to illustrate... in 160 AB you might have a good idea that a certain player can hit for power (ISO) and make contact (K rate), causing a team to give them more leash. But if a player of equal or greater talent does not excel in those areas you might cut him because his skills take longer to give you confidence. Maybe he is an OBP guy... 460 PA. Or worse, a guy who has a knack for hitting Line Drives for AVG with a high BABIP.

[Olerud363]

 

So to illustrate... in 160 AB you might have a good idea that a certain player can hit for power (ISO) and make contact (K rate), causing a team to give them more leash. But if a player of equal or greater talent does not excel in those areas you might cut him because his skills take longer to give you confidence. Maybe he is an OBP guy... 460 PA. Or worse, a guy who has a knack for hitting Line Drives for AVG with a high BABIP.

 

With Biggio it seems this may have led to a bad feedback cycle. When he hit slumps no one gives him enough time for his natural skills to normalize, so maybe he his chasing more power. His swing rate has deteriorated and with it his walk rate.

 

There is a narrative that it's the Pitchers that have changed, and they are now throwing Biggio more fastballs in the zone, thus he doesn't walk. I don't think that's the explanation because it is Biggio's swing rates that have changed since 2019/20, his swing rates used to be like Juan Soto's.

 

Kirk is a counter example to the 'Pitchers won't walk powerless weaklings'. Kirks power has deteriorated, and he is a ground ball machine, so Pitchers would hate to walk him especially with guys on base where he is the worlds best candidate for a double play... but Kirk still walks.

 

So these guys with low swing rates maybe are pressured to change as they lose playing time quicker in slumps, unless they are Juan Soto.