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Posted
Since 2020, the Jays have the 6th best regular season record in baseball (304-242), 2 games behind the Yankees. I tend to agree that while we may think Atkins' job is in danger, from a business aspect he's probably done more than enough to keep his bosses happy. The only thing he hasn't done is had playoff success, but a lot of that is out of his control, and Shapiro is likely firmly in the "playoffs at a crapshoot" camp so he may focus more on the regular season success.

 

I think the only way Atkins is gone after 2024 is if the team falls out of contention. If they are in contention and/or make the playoffs, then he's likely fine even if they go 0-2 in the WC round again. In 2021-22, he built a top 5 offense in baseball, and in 2023 built the best (or close to it) pitching staff in baseball. He's gotta find a way to make that happen in the same season.

 

If you win the division (other than Central), you get to play in the second round. One less chance to get bounced from randomness. See how that works

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Posted
The only saving grace to their shame namely Ross Atkins and those who stupidly defended this trade is for Moreno and Gurriel to suffer career ending injuries then Varsho in some parallel universe will be in the running for MVP in the next season or two.
Posted
The only saving grace to their shame namely Ross Atkins and those who stupidly defended this trade is for Moreno and Gurriel to suffer career ending injuries then Varsho in some parallel universe will be in the running for MVP in the next season or two.

 

Trip in traffic, man.

Posted

I think the trade tends to look worse because of Arizona making it to the World Series but they're not really a good team. If they got bounced in the first round - it would not have been so in our face. Moreover, as the talking heads have noted - Varsho looks worse because they ran him out there as a cleanup hitter and in left field.

 

But if we look at him more objectively - he was the second-best defensive CF in the game (to KK) - his offence looks better if you view him as a 7 to 9 hitting elite defensive CF. Indeed, if this team had better hitters and you have him in the bottom third now he looks a lot better - 20 home run 8-9 hole hitter with some speed and great bunting ability - the guy is good - he's just magnified because of what we gave up.

 

But let's ask a serious question - we had three catchers with only room for 2 - would Arizona have taken Kirk? I am not so sure. And Kirk was hugely popular here as that cute little guy that casual Toronto fans tend to like regardless of talent.

 

The offensive free-agent market is terrible so why not look at trading Kikuchi, Romano and even Berrios to get some bats? Pick up the option on Green. The first two are on attractive contracts. Trade for the bats and then make a big push for a guy like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and then maybe Jordan Montgomery (although a bit of a fatty) and Jordan Hicks.

 

I don't think we have many prospects to move but given how are "future aces" have turned out in recent years - I would probably put Tiedemann on the table - Remember Pearson was a future can't-miss hall of fame ace - meh - give me a player who can help now.

 

Manoah, Kikuchi, and Tiedemann to Padres for Soto (on the condition he signs - 13 years $450m). If you want to win you need good players. I look at our line-up and other than Bo Bichette it looks pretty damn bad - you need some thumpers. Someone you actually feel is a difficult out - Your top 5 hitters should cause the opposing pitcher cause for worry - the only one we had last year was Bo. No one was worried about Springer, Vlad, Belt or the chorus of mediocrities cycled in the 4-5 spot.

 

If you trade Vlad and his $20 million you can pick up two JD Martinez sort of bats - arguably this team needs 4-5 bats. They're going to have to make some tough calls.

Posted
And Kirk was hugely popular here as that cute little guy that casual Toronto fans tend to like regardless of talent.

 

I don't understand what you mean by regardless of talent. Kirk is a more talented player than Moreno and unfortunately is struggling with a weight problem.

 

Most Jays fans appreciate Kirk because of the all-star appearance, the elite bat to ball skills and the elite framing, they understand also that a severe weight issue may end his career really early, and we may be seeing the beginning of the end already at 24.

 

This has become my pet peeve lately because multiple good posters are just framing this narrative wrong.

Posted
I don't understand what you mean by regardless of talent. Kirk is a more talented player than Moreno and unfortunately is struggling with a weight problem.

 

Most Jays fans appreciate Kirk because of the all-star appearance, the elite bat to ball skills and the elite framing, they understand also that a severe weight issue may end his career really early, and we may be seeing the beginning of the end already at 24.

 

This has become my pet peeve lately because multiple good posters are just framing this narrative wrong.

 

Example, just look at Kirk’s rookie season and at Moreno’s rookie season. One dude was clearly better.

 

We’ll have to see what happens with Kirk going forward, but even if you think the weight will affect his longevity past 30 that doesn’t really matter for the Jays.

Posted
I don't understand what you mean by regardless of talent. Kirk is a more talented player than Moreno and unfortunately is struggling with a weight problem.

 

Most Jays fans appreciate Kirk because of the all-star appearance, the elite bat to ball skills and the elite framing, they understand also that a severe weight issue may end his career really early, and we may be seeing the beginning of the end already at 24.

 

This has become my pet peeve lately because multiple good posters are just framing this narrative wrong.

 

I don't think he was implying that Kirk isn't talented, more that people would still like Kirk due to the everyman physique whether he was really talented or not.

Posted
I think the trade tends to look worse because of Arizona making it to the World Series but they're not really a good team. If they got bounced in the first round - it would not have been so in our face. Moreover, as the talking heads have noted - Varsho looks worse because they ran him out there as a cleanup hitter and in left field.

 

But if we look at him more objectively - he was the second-best defensive CF in the game (to KK) - his offence looks better if you view him as a 7 to 9 hitting elite defensive CF. Indeed, if this team had better hitters and you have him in the bottom third now he looks a lot better - 20 home run 8-9 hole hitter with some speed and great bunting ability - the guy is good - he's just magnified because of what we gave up.

 

But let's ask a serious question - we had three catchers with only room for 2 - would Arizona have taken Kirk? I am not so sure. And Kirk was hugely popular here as that cute little guy that casual Toronto fans tend to like regardless of talent.

 

The offensive free-agent market is terrible so why not look at trading Kikuchi, Romano and even Berrios to get some bats? Pick up the option on Green. The first two are on attractive contracts. Trade for the bats and then make a big push for a guy like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and then maybe Jordan Montgomery (although a bit of a fatty) and Jordan Hicks.

 

I don't think we have many prospects to move but given how are "future aces" have turned out in recent years - I would probably put Tiedemann on the table - Remember Pearson was a future can't-miss hall of fame ace - meh - give me a player who can help now.

 

Manoah, Kikuchi, and Tiedemann to Padres for Soto (on the condition he signs - 13 years $450m). If you want to win you need good players. I look at our line-up and other than Bo Bichette it looks pretty damn bad - you need some thumpers. Someone you actually feel is a difficult out - Your top 5 hitters should cause the opposing pitcher cause for worry - the only one we had last year was Bo. No one was worried about Springer, Vlad, Belt or the chorus of mediocrities cycled in the 4-5 spot.

 

If you trade Vlad and his $20 million you can pick up two JD Martinez sort of bats - arguably this team needs 4-5 bats. They're going to have to make some tough calls.

 

Damn that's a really steep price to pay for Soto. I'd much rather wait for a shot at signing him for cash only + draft pick in free agency(which admittedly may not come if he's acquired and signed long term by someone else)

Posted
Damn that's a really steep price to pay for Soto. I'd much rather wait for a shot at signing him for cash only + draft pick in free agency(which admittedly may not come if he's acquired and signed long term by someone else)

 

Yup, exactly. This is madness - Manoah, Kikuchi, and Tiedemann for the privilege to pay Soto $450M? If you'd do that, go balls to the wall on Ohtani this year, or take a shot at a big free agent signing next year.

 

I tend to agree with Max Silver that the team underperformed it's talent level this year and could make up a lot of WAR with the same core supplemented by a couple above average bats.

Posted
Yup, exactly. This is madness - Manoah, Kikuchi, and Tiedemann for the privilege to pay Soto $450M? If you'd do that, go balls to the wall on Ohtani this year, or take a shot at a big free agent signing next year.

 

I tend to agree with Max Silver that the team underperformed it's talent level this year and could make up a lot of WAR with the same core supplemented by a couple above average bats.

 

There's a very real chance that with an injury to one of the top 3 members of the rotation that next year's team could consist of these 3 starters until the injured starter came back. Assuming some level of Manoah bounceback trading all 3 of these players opens up 2 immediate holes in the rotation while also moving one of the primary depth pieces. This also necessitates acquiring more starters through free agency and very likely necessitates a massive increase in payroll as these 3 traded pitchers likely earn something like $12-13 combined next season, while also necessitating adding a good chunk of payroll for Soto. This dramatically weakens the team's long term prospects of any kind of sustainability as suddenly the already expensive starting rotation which ate up something like $90 million last season becomes even more expensive.

Posted
I think the trade tends to look worse because of Arizona making it to the World Series but they're not really a good team. If they got bounced in the first round - it would not have been so in our face. Moreover, as the talking heads have noted - Varsho looks worse because they ran him out there as a cleanup hitter and in left field.

 

But if we look at him more objectively - he was the second-best defensive CF in the game (to KK) - his offence looks better if you view him as a 7 to 9 hitting elite defensive CF. Indeed, if this team had better hitters and you have him in the bottom third now he looks a lot better - 20 home run 8-9 hole hitter with some speed and great bunting ability - the guy is good - he's just magnified because of what we gave up.

 

But let's ask a serious question - we had three catchers with only room for 2 - would Arizona have taken Kirk? I am not so sure. And Kirk was hugely popular here as that cute little guy that casual Toronto fans tend to like regardless of talent.

 

The offensive free-agent market is terrible so why not look at trading Kikuchi, Romano and even Berrios to get some bats? Pick up the option on Green. The first two are on attractive contracts. Trade for the bats and then make a big push for a guy like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and then maybe Jordan Montgomery (although a bit of a fatty) and Jordan Hicks.

 

I don't think we have many prospects to move but given how are "future aces" have turned out in recent years - I would probably put Tiedemann on the table - Remember Pearson was a future can't-miss hall of fame ace - meh - give me a player who can help now.

 

Manoah, Kikuchi, and Tiedemann to Padres for Soto (on the condition he signs - 13 years $450m). If you want to win you need good players. I look at our line-up and other than Bo Bichette it looks pretty damn bad - you need some thumpers. Someone you actually feel is a difficult out - Your top 5 hitters should cause the opposing pitcher cause for worry - the only one we had last year was Bo. No one was worried about Springer, Vlad, Belt or the chorus of mediocrities cycled in the 4-5 spot.

 

If you trade Vlad and his $20 million you can pick up two JD Martinez sort of bats - arguably this team needs 4-5 bats. They're going to have to make some tough calls.

 

I agree with pretty much everything in this post except the bolded. All 3 of those players for Soto would be a massive overpay, considering Tiedemann alone has more median value on BTV than Soto. Not sure what a 450/13 salary commitment would do to his median value though (increase or decrease).

 

Something closer to fair would be those same players to the Padres for Soto, Kim and Grisham. 51.9 median value out, 59.6 in, still meets the criteria of Atkins usually gaining between 5-10 median value on each trade he makes (at the time these trades were made).

Posted
Yup, exactly. This is madness - Manoah, Kikuchi, and Tiedemann for the privilege to pay Soto $450M? If you'd do that, go balls to the wall on Ohtani this year, or take a shot at a big free agent signing next year.

 

I tend to agree with Max Silver that the team underperformed it's talent level this year and could make up a lot of WAR with the same core supplemented by a couple above average bats.

Soto is a great young bat but no thanks on that deal for a year of him. Any way you slice it this teams fortunes will be largely dependent on Vlad and Bo producing more than 4.8 WAR. I don’t think it’s smart to count on Varsho, Kirk or Springer for more than 2 each. Projections will be interesting.

Posted
Soto is a great young bat but no thanks on that deal for a year of him. Any way you slice it this teams fortunes will be largely dependent on Vlad and Bo producing more than 4.8 WAR. I don’t think it’s smart to count on Varsho, Kirk or Springer for more than 2 each. Projections will be interesting.

 

Varsho as CF, more than 2 WAR is essentially guaranteed

 

I think Springer bounces back from an off year

Posted
Soto is a great young bat but no thanks on that deal for a year of him. Any way you slice it this teams fortunes will be largely dependent on Vlad and Bo producing more than 4.8 WAR. I don’t think it’s smart to count on Varsho, Kirk or Springer for more than 2 each. Projections will be interesting.

 

Steamer600 EOS projections are basically what they'll be before the projections come out.('24)

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600

Posted
No more comments in this thread. We reached 69 pages. Case is closed on this trade.
Posted
No more comments in this thread. We reached 69 pages. Case is closed on this trade.

 

According to who? Unless you're card carrying member of the cult of batting average who's been decrying this as the worst trade in franchise history since day 1 there is plenty of remaining long term intrigue regarding this trade. The most extreme example I saw of this was a dude who proclaimed that he wouldn't have traded Gurriel alone for Varsho because Gurriel hits for a higher batting average.

 

We simply don't know if or to what degree Varsho bounces back with the bat or even improves over time, how he holds up defensively over an entire season in center field, what kind of long term success Moreno has at the plate etc.

Posted
Yup, exactly. This is madness - Manoah, Kikuchi, and Tiedemann for the privilege to pay Soto $450M? If you'd do that, go balls to the wall on Ohtani this year, or take a shot at a big free agent signing next year.

 

I tend to agree with Max Silver that the team underperformed it's talent level this year and could make up a lot of WAR with the same core supplemented by a couple above average bats.

 

Totally agree. If guys like Springer, Kirk, Vlad, etc don’t bounce back then we’re screwed anyways

Posted

I expect Varsho to bounce back and produce a 3-4 WAR season as a full-time CF. I don't want him hitting anywhere in the middle-of-the-order though, unless he proves throughout the season otherwise. Hopefully he slots somewhere #7-9 in the batting order.

 

I hope Springer could bounce back as well, but worried about his age and injury history. He could end up being a dead asset.

Posted
Soto is a great young bat but no thanks on that deal for a year of him. Any way you slice it this teams fortunes will be largely dependent on Vlad and Bo producing more than 4.8 WAR. I don’t think it’s smart to count on Varsho, Kirk or Springer for more than 2 each. Projections will be interesting.

 

Hopefully the asking price for one year of Soto isn't that much. If the Jays can acquire Soto, he essentially gives you what you were wanting from Vlad. Soto + Bo would be the key guys offensively in the lineup. Soto could likely produce 5-6 WAR and Bo 4-5 WAR. Likely could get 10+ WAR combined from those two. Add in another bat with some pop like Teo or Soler or JD Martinez, the lineup is looking good. If Vladdy returns to somewhere between his 2021 and 2022 season, even better. Overall, I don't think it's smart to count on Vladdy as being an anchor/elite bat for this lineup. Need to bring in someone else.

Posted
I expect Varsho to bounce back and produce a 3-4 WAR season as a full-time CF. I don't want him hitting anywhere in the middle-of-the-order though, unless he proves throughout the season otherwise. Hopefully he slots somewhere #7-9 in the batting order.

 

I hope Springer could bounce back as well, but worried about his age and injury history. He could end up being a dead asset.

 

It's really surprising but Varsho's second most productive spot in the order last season was 5th where he produced a 137 WRC+ over a 20 game sample.

 

I think Springer should be just fine next season. I give him a pass for the April struggles as he had truly rotten batted ball fortune to start the season before he got sick, and then he played through lingering illness symptoms for several weeks afterwards. His numbers over the first 23 games/100 plate appearances were pretty rough as he struggled to a 57 wRC+. He had a couple of very good months at the plate from near the end of April until Mid July where he produced a 132 wRC+ over 67 games/293 plate appearances. A great deal of the consternation towards Springer in general seems to stem from the prolonged slump he experienced in July, which saw him really struggle over 16 games where he only managed a -3 wRC+. He ended the season on a solid note where he produced a 125 wRC+ over his final 49 games/223 plate appearances. In other words his season as a whole consisted of two down periods of a combined 39 games or so, and periods where he was very productive over 116 games. To declare him as potentially being finished as a productive major league hitter based on 5 weeks where he struggled seems overly premature.

 

I don't necessarily expect him to return to his glory days but something like 110-120 wRC+ over a full season seems realistic for next season.

Posted
It's really surprising but Varsho's second most productive spot in the order last season was 5th where he produced a 137 WRC+ over a 20 game sample.

 

Probably because while he was on a heater he moved up in the lineup and vice versa

Posted
Probably because while he was on a heater he moved up in the lineup and vice versa

 

That would likely be the case with any hitter that moved up and down the lineup a lot.

Posted
That would likely be the case with any hitter that moved up and down the lineup a lot.

 

So you think they should hit him fifth to optimize his abilities?

Posted
So you think they should hit him fifth to optimize his abilities?

 

I'm not saying that in the slightest. I agree that Varsho was potentially moved up in the order due to being on a hot streak, yet if I recall correctly he started the season hitting up in the order at times before it was established how successful of an offensive season he was experiencing.

 

I'm far from being a proponent of locking hitters into specific slots in the order ala Cito Gaston on his second tour of duty as Blue Jays manager. I recall one instance where Marco Scutaro was the team's typical leadoff hitter and John McDonald was the backup short stop. Instead of reworking his order a tiny bit when Scutaro was out of the lineup he actually inserted McDonald into the leadoff spot so as to not disturb the rest of the order. I fully support moving players up and down the order as warranted by performance

Posted
Varsho as CF, more than 2 WAR is essentially guaranteed

 

I think Springer bounces back from an off year

 

Agree on Springer.

 

His xwOBA was better than his wOBA and he was hitting the ball hard the first half of the year but he was getting really unlucky.

 

Then he actually started slumping so his numbers just never really got to the point where you would expect. I think he'll rebound.

Posted
Agree on Springer.

 

His xwOBA was better than his wOBA and he was hitting the ball hard the first half of the year but he was getting really unlucky.

 

Then he actually started slumping so his numbers just never really got to the point where you would expect. I think he'll rebound.

Hope so. Would be helpful. 29th percentile average EV for season and under 50th for hard hit %. Not a strong year.

Posted

Sorry maybe I wasn't clear -

 

My suggestion of Manoah, Kikuchi, and Tiedemann to Padres for Soto (on the condition he signs - 13 years $450m), was based on the fact that various talking heads suggesting that Manoah wants out of Toronto - that Kikuchi is arguably a sell high candidate on the last year of his deal and thus the trade is largely Tidemann for Soto. And on the condition that we can extend Soto.

 

The reason for this suggestion is that the free agent market is terrible for hitters but is very deep on the pitching front. The idea is to also make a big splash and sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto who arguably becomes the ace of the staff if reports on him are accurate - so we upgrade on Kikuchi and he would be a long-term sign.

 

Tiudemann may be very good but he may be another Pearson. With a team looking to win a WS the next two years with the Bo and Vlad window do you want to dick around with the Maybe that is Tiedemann. I think San Diego will look to trade Soto - I think it's going to require a stiff price.

 

If you can hold back Tiedemann and pay some sort of lesser price - that would be ideal. San Diego isn't likely going to throw in the towel - they may want MLB ready players or roster players in return.

 

I consider Soto to be more of a generational talent than a Vladdy - I am not a big fan of paying for one-dimensional players - Vladdy is basically now a marginal defensive 1b - a good but not perhaps great hitter. I don't think we can rely on him being one of those 40 homer .900+ OPS bats. Maybe he is and just needs protection.

 

The Jays apparently have 40-50 million to spend - but I think when building a winner - everything needs to be on the table - if you can sign a Yamamoto, trade for Soto - pick up someone like Montgomery and JD Martinez - maybe you have to move Vladdy and his projected $20m to make financial room.

 

I am not big on moving Vladdy - but IF you are going to do it - I think you can get away with it based on his baserunning blunder - the fanbase isn't as high on him so you can move him without too much pushback. Timing and Optics. Moving him frees up money where now you have 60-70 million to spend - then making these other moves doesn't seem so impossible.

 

As Barker of Blair and Barker noted the Jays hitters were easy to pitch to and one dimensional and all struggled with the elevated fastball - Springer, Chapman, Varsho basically can't hit 95+. They feel like the Jays need to bring in 5 bats. That's impossible. The alternative is to bring in high quality and possibly strengthen your strength -pitching.

 

I mean JD Martinez on a 1-year deal, One major lefty bat Ohtani/Soto trade/Bellinger (iffY), and even - gulp - Lourdes Gurriel Jr - with Yamamoto and some sort of Montgomery number 3 starter and pick up Green's contract and add one more bullpen arm (Hicks) would be a pretty great offseason. But that sure looks unlikely to me and it sort of needs to be what happens. This team has a lot of holes and I am not a fan of "we hope that Kirk, Vlad, Varsho, Springer all rebound next year" Nothing suggested to me that they can rebound at the plate.

Posted
Sorry maybe I wasn't clear -

 

My suggestion of Manoah, Kikuchi, and Tiedemann to Padres for Soto (on the condition he signs - 13 years $450m), was based on the fact that various talking heads suggesting that Manoah wants out of Toronto - that Kikuchi is arguably a sell high candidate on the last year of his deal and thus the trade is largely Tidemann for Soto. And on the condition that we can extend Soto.

 

The reason for this suggestion is that the free agent market is terrible for hitters but is very deep on the pitching front. The idea is to also make a big splash and sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto who arguably becomes the ace of the staff if reports on him are accurate - so we upgrade on Kikuchi and he would be a long-term sign.

 

Tiudemann may be very good but he may be another Pearson. With a team looking to win a WS the next two years with the Bo and Vlad window do you want to dick around with the Maybe that is Tiedemann. I think San Diego will look to trade Soto - I think it's going to require a stiff price.

 

If you can hold back Tiedemann and pay some sort of lesser price - that would be ideal. San Diego isn't likely going to throw in the towel - they may want MLB ready players or roster players in return.

 

I consider Soto to be more of a generational talent than a Vladdy - I am not a big fan of paying for one-dimensional players - Vladdy is basically now a marginal defensive 1b - a good but not perhaps great hitter. I don't think we can rely on him being one of those 40 homer .900+ OPS bats. Maybe he is and just needs protection.

 

The Jays apparently have 40-50 million to spend - but I think when building a winner - everything needs to be on the table - if you can sign a Yamamoto, trade for Soto - pick up someone like Montgomery and JD Martinez - maybe you have to move Vladdy and his projected $20m to make financial room.

 

I am not big on moving Vladdy - but IF you are going to do it - I think you can get away with it based on his baserunning blunder - the fanbase isn't as high on him so you can move him without too much pushback. Timing and Optics. Moving him frees up money where now you have 60-70 million to spend - then making these other moves doesn't seem so impossible.

 

As Barker of Blair and Barker noted the Jays hitters were easy to pitch to and one dimensional and all struggled with the elevated fastball - Springer, Chapman, Varsho basically can't hit 95+. They feel like the Jays need to bring in 5 bats. That's impossible. The alternative is to bring in high quality and possibly strengthen your strength -pitching.

 

I mean JD Martinez on a 1-year deal, One major lefty bat Ohtani/Soto trade/Bellinger (iffY), and even - gulp - Lourdes Gurriel Jr - with Yamamoto and some sort of Montgomery number 3 starter and pick up Green's contract and add one more bullpen arm (Hicks) would be a pretty great offseason. But that sure looks unlikely to me and it sort of needs to be what happens. This team has a lot of holes and I am not a fan of "we hope that Kirk, Vlad, Varsho, Springer all rebound next year" Nothing suggested to me that they can rebound at the plate.

 

Teideman is NOT Pearson, lol.

Posted
Varsho as CF, more than 2 WAR is essentially guaranteed

 

I think Springer bounces back from an off year

 

I looked at the projections on link Spank sent. I still don't think its wise to bank on more than 2 ish WAR from Kirk, Varsho or Springer.

 

Springer's 35 with a big injury history. You can argue both ways his underlying numbers from 2023 - there are some good numbers and some ugly ones.

 

If Kirk is the same size/weight as last year its an issue. His offense since mid 2022 has been a elite bat to ball low chase slap contact hitter with 2nd percentile speed. Not a good combo. His D is fine although he isn't great against the run.

 

Varsho should pick up more WAR in CF. His arm strength is 40th percentile and it will be interesting to see over a full season how he handles it. Comes down to him rebounding from an 85 wRC+ in '23.

 

We need those guys to be 2-3 WAR and Bo and Vlad to be 4-5 each and we should be in good shape.

Posted
Teideman is NOT Pearson, lol.

 

Yeah this isn't a very fair comparison. Pearson has suffered a boatload of injuries throughout his career and if I'm not mistaken 2023 was the first time in his entire time as a professional that he didn't miss major time due to injury. If/when Tiedemann missed major time due to injury in his next 5 seasons then there will be a direct comparison between the two.

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