2022/2023 offseason thread

[mellowgold]

May as well start looking ahead to next year.

 

Clear needs:

 

- (At least) 1 SP

- 2 high leverage swing and miss bullpen arms

- impact left-handed bat to compliment Vlad/Bo/Springer, preferably with solid on base/contact skills

 

Disposable assets include one of the catchers, Teo, Lourdes. Nobody else has any value really.

 

Any names we should be looking at to fill these voids?

[mellowgold]

Any chance we can buy low on a guy like Grisham from SD?

 

Excellent baserunner, excellent sprint speed. Good centre fielder and would allow us to move Springer to RF. Good plate discipline. Has decent underlying numbers with the bat. Hits from the left side. 25 years old.

 

Grisham for Kirk?

[Stangstag]

Any chance we can buy low on a guy like Grisham from SD?

 

Excellent baserunner, excellent sprint speed. Good centre fielder and would allow us to move Springer to RF. Good plate discipline. Has decent underlying numbers with the bat. Hits from the left side. 25 years old.

 

Grisham for Kirk?

 

Grisham could be nice. For Kirk though?? Idk about that. Maybe if we make it a bigger trade and they send an arm our way.

[mellowgold]

Grisham could be nice. For Kirk though?? Idk about that. Maybe if we make it a bigger trade and they send an arm our way.

 

I'd be open to expanding the deal for sure. But Grisham/Kirk looks to me like a classic buy low/sell high. Grisham is projected for 9.9 fWAR over the next three years, and Kirk is 5.7.

[Olerud363]

I'd be open to expanding the deal for sure. But Grisham/Kirk looks to me like a classic buy low/sell high. Grisham is projected for 9.9 fWAR over the next three years, and Kirk is 5.7.

 

If you are looking at the zips projections on fangraphs they probably aren't updated yet with 2022 numbers. Kirk is projected for 85 games a year and to hit .255, so that is probably based on his 2021.

 

I can't tell you how Kirk's body will hold up. I suspect other guys similar to him statistically at 23 have had very good careers.

[Olerud363]

How much has the baseball world soured on Alek Thomas after his poor rookie showing? According to MLB Trade Rumors they are wiling to deal him and looking for a catcher and right handed hitting outfielder.

 

Which catcher and outfielder would Jays have to give up and is there anything else Jays would want from Arizona? Any way to make a multi-player deal there?

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Alek Thomas or Grisham would be a nice get. With Springer's injury concerns and Teoscar and Gurriel's team control start to dwindle it wouldn't be a bad idea to acquire a bonafide center fielder and slide Springer to a corner as he ages. If going for Thomas I'd like to see Zac Gallen in the deal, too.

[The Cats Ass]

Sign Nimmo.

[Stangstag]

Sign Nimmo.

 

Depends on cost and if we want another 30+ player on the team for several years.

 

Probably a better idea to go after someone younger or a cheaper CF with a lesser bat

[PhillyBlueJay]

Is Verlander available as a free agent?

 

If we want an impact pitcher we need to pay huge on a short term deal.

 

If Verlander is available I would go with a 3 year 120 million deal. You’re only going to be able to sign him in TO if you overpay and he will not get longer than 3 years but for sure a guaranteed deal. Might require a slight 10 million signing bonus in addition to get him to sign in the dotted line.

[Stangstag]

Is Verlander available as a free agent?

 

If we want an impact pitcher we need to pay huge on a short term deal.

 

If Verlander is available I would go with a 3 year 120 million deal. You’re only going to be able to sign him in TO if you overpay and he will not get longer than 3 years but for sure a guaranteed deal. Might require a slight 10 million signing bonus in addition to get him to sign in the dotted line.

 

Hell f***ing no. Glad you aren’t GM

[Ray]

I think it’ll be interesting to see if we QO Ross Stripling. My leaning is no, but I’m not confident on it. He really saved our rotation in the regular season by stepping up to be the 3rd starter with Berrios and Kikuchi struggling, but close to $20M for a soon to be a 33 year old coming off a career best season is risky.

 

Swing and miss + velo out of the bullpen is a must. I think that goes without saying.

We need a good lefty bat to balance the lineup. Don’t have to meddle with the offense too much other than that.

Need another starter. Stripling would be fine, but I would aim higher and try to get a guy like Justin Verlander. Apparently he said he really considered us last offseason.

 

Big offseason for this front office. Wouldn’t be surprised if a major piece of this core is moved to shake things up. Teoscar and Lourdes going into their final year of arb. Vlad/Bo only having 3 years of control left with zero postseason success. Feels like this offseason could be a big inflection point for our near term future.

[The Cats Ass]

Hell f***ing no. Glad you aren’t GM

 

3/120 is actually cheaper than the Scherzer deal. Verlander has a better track record, and put up a better year this year than Max did last year.

 

I would do 3/120 if the 3rd year is tied to health.

[Stangstag]

3/120 is actually cheaper than the Scherzer deal. Verlander has a better track record, and put up a better year this year than Max did last year.

 

Age is not on his side

[The Cats Ass]

Age is not on his side

 

He’s just a freak of nature. Hes only couple years older than Scherzer. He’s had no drop in velocity. He’s gonna get atleast a 2 year deal this off-season.

[Daniel Labude]

Any chance we can buy low on a guy like Grisham from SD?

 

Excellent baserunner, excellent sprint speed. Good centre fielder and would allow us to move Springer to RF. Good plate discipline. Has decent underlying numbers with the bat. Hits from the left side. 25 years old.

 

Grisham for Kirk?

 

A defense only CF who hits worse than Gallo should be a good asset to blow Kirk on

 

(Sorry had to break my silence)

[Stangstag]

He’s just a freak of nature. Hes only couple years older than Scherzer. He’s had no drop in velocity. He’s gonna get atleast a 2 year deal this off-season.

 

Yeah i’d rather not be that team. Things can go downhill really quick past 40

[Captain_Obvious]

Fix the outfield. Need to do two of:

A- Vlad for Corbin Carroll.

B- Sign Nimmo

C- Kirk for Nootbaar

[Dagagad]

I’d completely overhaul our pitching dev as a matter of extreme urgency, including pete walker.

 

I absolutely would not trade vlad. Or Kirk. Jansen or Teo, possibly.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I don't see any big changes or trades coming, nor should there be.

 

92 win team with the best offense in the AL and with plenty of room for internal growth and a good chance at Vladdy and Berrios improving their fWAR totals even if only by a little bit. They'll also have Merrifield for the full season as well.

 

Who on the roster is likely to see a significant decline in fWAR? I don't see any high risk of player regression anywhere.

 

Hopefully they can add a stud starting pitcher via free agency and roll with:

 

Gausman

Manoah

UFA pitcher (Rodon/Verlander/etc)

Berrios

Kikuchi/White (battle for #5 starter)

 

Bullpen was improved at the deadline, and there are some young arms ready to compete as well for bullpen duty, plus Pearson and maybe you even move Kikuchi into a high leverage BP role. He was starting to flourish in that role and talk about swing and miss...he's got that in spades.

 

Romano

Bass

Garcia

Cimber

Richards

Pop

Mayza

Merryweather

Pearson

Hernandez

Jeunger

Zulueta

White/Kikuchi

Gage

 

 

Should be able to build a decent bullpen from that list of relievers.

[Spanky99]

I don't see any big changes or trades coming, nor should there be.

 

92 win team with the best offense in the AL and with plenty of room for internal growth and a good chance at Vladdy and Berrios improving their fWAR totals even if only by a little bit. They'll also have Merrifield for the full season as well.

 

Who on the roster is likely to see a significant decline in fWAR? I don't see any high risk of player regression anywhere.

 

Hopefully they can add a stud starting pitcher via free agency and roll with:

 

Gausman

Manoah

UFA pitcher (Rodon/Verlander/etc)

Berrios

Kikuchi/White (battle for #5 starter)

 

Bullpen was improved at the deadline, and there are some young arms ready to compete as well for bullpen duty, plus Pearson and maybe you even move Kikuchi into a high leverage BP role. He was starting to flourish in that role and talk about swing and miss...he's got that in spades.

 

Romano

Bass

Garcia

Cimber

Richards

Pop

Mayza

Merryweather

Pearson

Hernandez

Jeunger

Zulueta

White/Kikuchi

Gage

 

 

Should be able to build a decent bullpen from that list of relievers.

 

Agree with most of this, but Zulueta is a starter.

[jaysblue]

I don't see any big changes or trades coming, nor should there be.

 

92 win team with the best offense in the AL and with plenty of room for internal growth and a good chance at Vladdy and Berrios improving their fWAR totals even if only by a little bit. They'll also have Merrifield for the full season as well.

 

Who on the roster is likely to see a significant decline in fWAR? I don't see any high risk of player regression anywhere.

 

Hopefully they can add a stud starting pitcher via free agency and roll with:

 

Gausman

Manoah

UFA pitcher (Rodon/Verlander/etc)

Berrios

Kikuchi/White (battle for #5 starter)

 

Bullpen was improved at the deadline, and there are some young arms ready to compete as well for bullpen duty, plus Pearson and maybe you even move Kikuchi into a high leverage BP role. He was starting to flourish in that role and talk about swing and miss...he's got that in spades.

 

Romano

Bass

Garcia

Cimber

Richards

Pop

Mayza

Merryweather

Pearson

Hernandez

Jeunger

Zulueta

White/Kikuchi

Gage

 

 

Should be able to build a decent bullpen from that list of relievers.

 

Yeah I don't see any big changes like the Jays trading Vladdy, Bo or Kirk etc. Nor should there be. I want to give Vlad and Bo another chance in 2023 to see if they recapture some of their 2021 form. Not in a rush to lock them up for an extension, there is still time.

 

I do think this team needs to add a competent 4th outfielder who you can rely on giving 400-500ABs to and who could play sound defense at every OF position. The Jays can't be wasting ABs on players like Tapia or Zimmer over an extended period. In my opinion, I still would try to sign a starting CF and move Springer to a corner. Nimmo would be a nice signing (CF, left-handed bat, gets on-base). Another target who could be a nice buy low is Ramón Laureano from Oakland.

 

I agree another top starter would be ideal. Maybe Carlos Rodon if you can open up the bank and sign him to a similar contract as Kevin Gausman (probably Rodon will cost more though). Otherwise, target another middle of the rotation starter and there are plenty FAs available - Corey Kluber, Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson, Sean Manaea - wouldn't require many years or a high AAV. I don't have an issue with having White and Kikuchi battle for the No. 5 slot, but I would feel more comfortable if they opened the season as the No. 6 and 7 guys for depth purposes. The Jays starting rotation even this season was playing with thin ice in terms of depth - they're lucky Gausman and Manoah stayed healthy. Imagine losing one of those guys for an extended period of time this season, this team likely doesn't even play in the Wildcard. Would like to see Atkins build up depth in the rotation if he could.

 

As for the bullpen, another elite BP arm needs to be added to complement some of the solid pieces they have. They need arms with higher K rates. Yes you can roll the dice on Pearson, Merryweather and heck even transition Kikuchi and see how he is. You might get lucky with one of those guys, though don't go into 2023 expecting all three or one of those guys will pan out. They're more solid lottery tickets/arms you can get lucky on. Again with this core they have in place and the 2023 window likely being their last best window (Teo and Chapman both under contract one more season), I don't think you play Conservative with the bullpen or try to cheaply address it like they have the past two years. Building depth is important because what happens if the Jays lose Romano for an extended period of time? Jays can't be playing with thin ice again as they did in 2022. If they don't sign Edwin Diaz, I'm sure Jansen or Kimbrel can be signed on a 1 year contract. If the Jays don't want to spend that type of money, they can explore the trade market or some other solid high K relievers available via free agency who likely won't break the bank. I think Matt Moore could be a great target (1.3 WAR). As a low risk/high reward signing - Shelby Miller could be a viable target.

[Jonn]

Needs to be completely revamped focus on the Bullpen. Velocity and swing and miss. Shouldn’t even look at anyone who is striking out less than 10 Strikeouts per 9 IP. No contact bullpen. Ideally you want a couple guys in the 12 range.

[Stangstag]

Needs to be completely revamped focus on the Bullpen. Velocity and swing and miss. Shouldn’t even look at anyone who is striking out less than 10 Strikeouts per 9 IP. No contact bullpen. Ideally you want a couple guys in the 12 range.

 

Need to start Rays’ing this s***

[Terminator]

I'd strongly consider leaving Kikuchi in the bullpen. SSS but he had a 16.2 K/9, 4.42 BB/9 and a 2.28 xFIP. He can live with a BB/9 that high as a reliever.

[Stangstag]

I'd strongly consider leaving Kikuchi in the bullpen. SSS but he had a 16.2 K/9, 4.42 BB/9 and a 2.28 xFIP. He can live with a BB/9 that high as a reliever.

 

Same. But they may need an extra arm in the rotation next year, and if they think Kikuchi can be a 4-5 ERA starter then he’s more valuable in the rotation.

[Terminator]

Same. But they may need an extra arm in the rotation next year, and if they think Kikuchi can be a 4-5 ERA starter then he’s more valuable in the rotation.

 

I'd sign or trade for a 5th starter and then fix Mitch White (to the extent he even needs to be fixed he had a 3.76 FIP for us) to be the long man/6th starter. Zulu and Tiedemann in AAA.

[Terminator]

It's also time to make a decision on our catching situation. We've got about 2 years left of this core team being intact (perhaps longer with some extensions) and Jansen (2 years of control left), Kirk (4 years) and Moreno (6 years) are all deserving of being on the big league team. One of them needs to be traded and it's a waste of resources otherwise.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

I could see Kikuchi having success as a "stopper" out of the bullpen. Pencilling him in as the #5 starter would be a failure in my opinion, I would much rather consider him as depth.

 

Give him reps early next season as long relief and if he shows promise give him higher and higher leverage. If a starter gets injured then consider putting him in the rotation again, but I think he would excel as a guy throwing 70-90 innings out of the pen.

[Jays333]

Trade Vlad or Bichette for either a proven top 10 starting pitcher or a boat load of top pitching prospects. They are both overrated players. Trade them now before their value drops even more.