General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Solaxys]

With the recent surge, Vladdy has the highest fWAR on the team at 3 (tying Alonso for 4th overall for 1B).

 

He's also 5 HRs away from 100 (currently at 23y143d; Bench is currently 7th with 23y/161d and Soto is 8th with 23y/169d), 12 hits away from 500.

[Blazeit420]

The age gap between Frasso and White is a lot closer than I thought.

[LGBJ29]

Nah f*** Mitch White. Organizationally we came out with less swing and miss post trade deadline and it’s comical.

 

So you've obviously done no digging on White or De Jesus, just saw White was left off the roster temporarily and decided the trade sucked. Do better Jonn

 

[max silver]

Dumn. A+ hitters will swing at s*** MLB hitters won't even sniff, Bo Bichette aside.

 

Mitch White struck out 11.41/9 as a 22 yr old in A+. Frasso a bit higher but don't forget MiLB has been contracted, so the overall level of talent in A+ today is less than it was when Mitch White pitched in A+.

 

Wouldn't the contraction of MiLB mean that the average talent level in the minor leagues is actually higher? Less spots available should lead to the lesser talented players needing to play in independent ball instead of being able to ply their trade in affiliated ball.

[MikeM3]

None of these stats matter. The only thing the Dodgers look at is Frasso's biomechanics. They don't give a f*** about his stats. They just see an object that might be capable of certain pitch types.

 

I don't think Atkins is oblivious to this either so Alex De Jesus must be someone that makes up the difference in our mind. Mitch White has been absolutely red lined by the Dodgers development staff for like 10 years, this is what he is. Solid contributor most likely, no ace ceiling.

[InsideThePark]

Wouldn't the contraction of MiLB mean that the average talent level in the minor leagues is actually higher? Less spots available should lead to the lesser talented players needing to play in independent ball instead of being able to ply their trade in affiliated ball.

 

If the worst current players got cut then yes, though the high levels would still generally be the same, your bottom 2 teams full of the worst players would just all be removed along with the teams. But teams will be cutting the worst prospects which isn't the same as the worst player. Some bad veteran in AAA who a team no longer wants will get cut over the 8th round draft pick from the last draft who's in the FCL. The AAA cut will almost certainly be a better current player than everyone on the FCL roster, but those lower guys have potential so will be hung onto. Once a bunch of these holes are made at the upper levels guys who would normally be in the lower levels if we had 8 affiliates now need to get pushed up to fill holes watering down the entire minor leagues as a whole.

 

Just look at where newly drafted College players get sent these days. Under the old system most of them went to Vancouver(Short Season A). That doesn't exist anymore so they either have to go to the FCL(lower level) or Dunedin/Vancouver(Higher level). Just about every College guy we drafted last year started in full season ball. That level is weaker than it used to be.

 

As an exercise pretend every minor league team was getting deleted except AAA and AA. You only got to keep 50 prospects, send 25 to Buffalo, and 25 to New Hampshire. Everyone else is gone. There's a bunch of lower level guys you're be assigning to New Hampshire because you want to keep them for their MLB potential, and AA would be a hell of a lot weaker than it is now with guys like Irv Carter, Pinto, Beltre, Meza, etc, etc playing there. It's an extreme example, but going from 8 to 6 teams like they did within the last couple years would follow the same principle

[Deadpool]

None of these stats matter. The only thing the Dodgers look at is Frasso's biomechanics. They don't give a f*** about his stats. They just see an object that might be capable of certain pitch types.

 

I don't think Atkins is oblivious to this either so Alex De Jesus must be someone that makes up the difference in our mind. Mitch White has been absolutely red lined by the Dodgers development staff for like 10 years, this is what he is. Solid contributor most likely, no ace ceiling.

 

His MiLB numbers are quite good, and he has a sub 4 career MLB FIP in 105 IP. It's not hard to see a mid-rotation starter, or back end bullpen guy (after his swing man duties are complete this year...)

[MikeM3]

His MiLB numbers are quite good, and he has a sub 4 career MLB FIP in 105 IP. It's not hard to see a mid-rotation starter, or back end bullpen guy (after his swing man duties are complete this year...)

 

Nothing about his profile screams back end bullpen. He's just a 4-6th SP. He has more value to us than he does for the Dodgers. The Dodgers just back fill him with someone else and bet on turning Frasso into an ace. It's Stripling/Williams redux.

[Solaxys]

 

What's Star%? The chance he becomes a star?

[RustyTrombone]

While people are on the topic of these imo rather fun but not that usefull charts, look up Addison Bargers chart for some fap material.

[Solaxys]

While people are on the topic of these imo rather fun but not that usefull charts, look up Addison Bargers chart for some fap material.

 

On it

 

 

 

Do we give him a 10y/300M deal and lock him up like now?

[Orgfiller]

What's Star%? The chance he becomes a star?

 

Probably likelihood of him achieving some WAR threshold. Like 4-5+ WAR in a season or cumulative performance over career/team control.

[RustyTrombone]

On it

 

 

 

Do we give him a 10y/300M deal and lock him up like now?

 

I mean he is the next Julio so obvs

[Jimcanuck]

Wouldn't the contraction of MiLB mean that the average talent level in the minor leagues is actually higher? Less spots available should lead to the lesser talented players needing to play in independent ball instead of being able to ply their trade in affiliated ball.

 

Insidethepark covered it. Basically experienced players that would be at A+ have been cut in favour of less experienced projects / prospects that in previous years would be playing at a lower level.

[Jonn]

So you've obviously done no digging on White or De Jesus, just saw White was left off the roster temporarily and decided the trade sucked. Do better Jonn

 

 

Are we going to sit here pretend this chart means absolutely f*** all? I literally cackled when I saw the comparison to Acuna and I didn't even know I was physically capable of that.

[dineke]

Are we going to sit here pretend this chart means absolutely f*** all? I literally cackled when I saw the comparison to Acuna and I didn't even know I was physically capable of that.

 

Maybe the comparison is acuna right after he tore his ACL

[max silver]

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has had a bit of an up and down season, but aside from a 5 week stretch early on where he really struggled he's largely been excellent with the bat.

 

Vlad started out hot in the first few weeks of the season. He was squaring up baseballs regularly and ground balls were kept well in check.

 

April 8 to April 23

 

.333/.393/.648, OPS of 1.042, WRC+ 185

Average exit velocity 94.2 MPH, barrel rate 19.5%, launch angle 10.5 degrees

ground ball rate 36.6%

 

Vlad hit the skids in the 5 or so weeks to follow. Average exit velocity dropped but was still very solid, hard hit rate was still very good as well, but his ground ball rate skyrocketed and he stopped barreling up baseballs.

 

April 24 to May 31

 

.209/.319/.339, OPS of .658, WRC+ 83

Average exit velocity 92.6 MPH, barrel rate 6.2%, launch angle 2.7 degrees

ground ball rate 56.7%

 

 

Vlad has been really caught fire since the All Star Break, but going back further to the start of June he has been on a very nice run at the plate. Average exit velocity and hard hit rates have remained pretty constant from the period where he struggled, however barrel rate has jumped as he's hitting the ball hard in the air more frequently. Ground ball rate is improved but still a bit high while average launch angle has crept up a bit.

 

May 31 to Aug. 5

 

.318/.377/.57, OPS of .948, WRC+ 165

Average exit velocity 92.7 MPH, barrel rate 12.2%, launch angle 4.4 degrees

ground ball rate 48.1%

 

Hopefully Vlad can hit another gear to end the season to help carry the club into the playoffs. He can provide elite offence in many different ways, whether it's when he goes on home run tears, or is producing tons of line drive base hits. We haven't seen a stretch where everything comes together for him as he's been a bit swing happy at times and looked a bit in between in his approach at times as well.

Edited August 6, 2022 by max silver

[Dagagad]

I mean he is the next Julio so obvs

 

I mean, he’s older than Julio right now. Julio is the next him.

 

Does this guy have historical stats so we can see his hits and misses?

[Eat My Shatkins]

Springer to the IL with elbow inflammation.

 

Otto Lopez takes his roster spot

[Stangstag]

Springer to the IL with elbow inflammation.

 

Otto Lopez takes his roster spot

 

Shocker. This should’ve happened like a week ago

[Laika]

Springer to the IL with elbow inflammation.

 

Otto Lopez takes his roster spot

 

Haha holy f***

 

As soon as he winced on they swing he should have been placed on the IL

[Spanky99]

Haha holy f***

 

As soon as he winced on they swing he should have been placed on the IL

 

Before the All-Star break.

[LGBJ29]

Are we going to sit here pretend this chart means absolutely f*** all? I literally cackled when I saw the comparison to Acuna and I didn't even know I was physically capable of that.

 

I shouldn't be surprised that is all you took from the chart. If percentiles in key offensive categories isn't enough for you, how would you suggest we measure players?

[BigCecil]

Mayza, Springer and Strip to the IL. They knew about the last two.

 

Deadline moves looking even more minimalistic juxtaposed against our competitions.

 

Really need a Twins split today.

[max silver]

Mayza, Springer and Strip to the IL. They knew about the last two.

 

Deadline moves looking even more minimalistic juxtaposed against our competitions.

 

Really need a Twins split today.

 

We've only seen him for a few games, but Merrifield should be able to cover for Springer just fine for the next week and a bit. Stripling's IL stint is expected to be very short, and White looked ok in his debut so I don't really feel the need to push the panic button right now. Of course another injury to a member of the rotation would change that in a hurry though.

[Spanky99]

[DigitalRock]

The inability to improve the pen enough so far has caused 1 misssed post season, costing us this yeast so far

[Terminator]

We've only seen him for a few games, but Merrifield should be able to cover for Springer just fine for the next week and a bit. Stripling's IL stint is expected to be very short, and White looked ok in his debut so I don't really feel the need to push the panic button right now. Of course another injury to a member of the rotation would change that in a hurry though.

 

Atkins is rolling the dice on the rotation staying healthy. Not only was Mitch White our lone SP acquisition but he also traded away Max Castillo. If we miss the playoffs it will be because of injuries to the rotation and Toronto media and casual fans will be calling for him to get fired.

[Jays24]

It's hilarious that the Orioles are like 3 games behind us and they're not even trying to make the playoffs lol. If they somehow end up in the Wild Card over us, heads will roll this offseason.

[Grant77]

Atkins is rolling the dice on the rotation staying healthy. Not only was Mitch White our lone SP acquisition but he also traded away Max Castillo. If we miss the playoffs it will be because of injuries to the rotation and Toronto media and casual fans will be calling for him to get fired.

 

I expect that it would be more than just casual fans.