General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Dagagad]

It's pretty clear they're not superstars. Since they debuted, they have the same WAR combined as Xander Bogaerts. And nowadays, players are better quicker. It's not guaranteed that they will be better players from 27-29 years old.

 

Is Kirk our best player? He has preternatural bat to ball, elite swing decisions and can actually play defence.

 

Don’t go too far the other way. Vlad is still only 23.

[Daniel Labude]

It's pretty clear they're not superstars. Since they debuted, they have the same WAR combined as Xander Bogaerts. And nowadays, players are better quicker. It's not guaranteed that they will be better players from 27-29 years old.

 

Is Kirk our best player? He has preternatural bat to ball, elite swing decisions and can actually play defence.

 

Who is a superstar? No one using your logic lmao

[Olerud363]

 

Vlad is worrying. HeÂ’s not his dad and canÂ’t be elite swinging at anything.

 

Not sure his Dad actually swung hard at everything...

 

 

This compilation shows Sr. mostly hammering pitches in the zone, and then at the end shows Sr. getting bloop hits on pitches way out of the zone, really cuts down his swing when he's reaching.

 

And 2 nights ago Vlad Jr. did something similar and incredibly hit a 400 foot homerun with a one handed swing at a low ball.

 

Problem I see is Vlad Jr. often swings all out on stuff out of the zone and has no chance. He should be taking these or using his emergency swing... lol. Not that I'm a hitting coach.

[Dagagad]

Not sure his Dad actually swung hard at everything...

 

 

This compilation shows Sr. mostly hammering pitches in the zone, and then at the end shows Sr. getting bloop hits on pitches way out of the zone, really cuts down his swing when he's reaching.

 

And 2 nights ago Vlad Jr. did something similar and incredibly hit a 400 foot homerun with a one handed swing at a low ball.

 

Problem I see is Vlad Jr. often swings all out on stuff out of the zone and has no chance. He should be taking these or using his emergency swing... lol. Not that I'm a hitting coach.

 

He should just be taking. He should be taking more in the zone on early strikes as well when it’s low.

 

How much of launch angle is just pitch selection?

[Jonn]

Vlad is the 74th best player in baseball since he debuted. 300M??

 

I hope the Blue Jays aren’t the team to go anywhere near that price tag. I like Vladdy but not this much. His bad body issues are only going to get progressively worse over time. I would be hesitant to make a long term commitment. Shorter term but more money a year is something I would be a lot more comfortable with.

[Dagagad]

I hope the Blue Jays aren’t the team to go anywhere near that price tag. I like Vladdy but not this much. His bad body issues are only going to get progressively worse over time. I would be hesitant to make a long term commitment. Shorter term but more money a year is something I would be a lot more comfortable with.

 

If he was a superstar last year, he could get back to that just by swinging at the right pitches.

[Laika]

I'd give 10/300 to Vlad in a heartbeat

 

or whatever the similar deal is that bridges to FA and then tacks that AAV on

[Dagagad]

I'd give 10/300 to Vlad in a heartbeat

 

or whatever the similar deal is that bridges to FA and then tacks that AAV on

 

I wouldn’t. He’s a first base/DH. I need to see him make better swing decisions first before i commit to such a long expensive deal. What Yordan Alvarez got is low but more appropriate. Even that is betting that vlad will be as good a hitter as Alvarez consistently.

 

So, maybe 10/250. More than Alvarez because he’s younger and has more upside maybe.

[Stangstag]

I'd give 10/300 to Vlad in a heartbeat

 

or whatever the similar deal is that bridges to FA and then tacks that AAV on

 

Why? Why not just play out his next couple arb years and see if he can repeat 2021? If he does, maybe the price goes up a bit. If he doesn’t, then you dodged a major bullet.

 

Not worth the risk IMO unless its something more team-friendly like Wander or Acuna contracts

[Dagagad]

Why? Why not just play out his next couple arb years and see if he can repeat 2021? If he does, maybe the price goes up a bit. If he doesn’t, then you dodged a major bullet.

 

Not worth the risk IMO unless its something more team-friendly like Wander or Acuna contracts

 

Yea, none of the smart teams are signing extensions early unless they are very likely to have a ton of surplus value. Betting on vlad to be a 30m value as like his median level isn’t a great bet. Franco’s deal is a good one if is even a 3/4 WAR player and there’s a decent chance that he has a few 6/7/8 WAR seasons.

 

Edit: basically, if you are signing a guy this early, you should be aiming for close to his floor. If you think vlad is a 3WAR floor player, that’s 24m a year roughly. That’s not even counting any decline at the end. Or any possibility of him getting super fat at 28.

Edited July 15, 2022 by Dagagad

[Dagagad]

The latest at the letters podcast is a good insight into how hard it to be a major league manager.

[keggy]

I know. But do you think he's going to get any more athletic than this? People comp him to Miggy but Miggy played 3b until he was 30 years old. He was playing the outfield at 23.

 

Vlad's going to have enormous pressure on his bat pretty soon, I think.

 

Cabrera was a skinny kid who got fat. Look at his rookie card he's built like Espinal. Guerrero came into the league overweight.

 

With that said, Guerrero has way more athletic potential than Cabrera. He's much faster and explosive than he looks.

 

It's uncommon for players to get into better shape as they age, but Rafael Devers lost like 50 pounds and turned himself into an MVP level player. Anthony Rizzo lost a ton of weight later in his career. It can be done but requires a lot of discipline.

[John_Havok]

I'd give 10/300 to Vlad in a heartbeat

 

or whatever the similar deal is that bridges to FA and then tacks that AAV on

 

Id try a bridge deal first... I'm still not truly convinced that Vlad is all that interested in getting into a shape that is closer to peak than it is to.... Vogelbach. . Yes, its better than it was in 2020, but that was atrocious. He has from September to March every year to drop fat and add even a tiny bit of muscle to help keep the fat off during the season which is a cakewalk for ANYONE that is even mildly interested in doing so and has the least bit of mental discipline, not to mention a guy with access to every conceivable piece of excercise equipment, trainers and nutrition experts to guide him.

 

I dropped 150 pounds over 2 years. Anyone can do it. He should be easily down to 210 every offseason.

[Dagagad]

As a point of comparison, fangraphs did a few articles on possible extensions and had vlad down as a 8/174m extension. The only think I don’t understand if that means after arb or right now. It seems really light for right now.

[glory]

Why? Why not just play out his next couple arb years and see if he can repeat 2021? If he does, maybe the price goes up a bit. If he doesn’t, then you dodged a major bullet.

 

Not worth the risk IMO unless its something more team-friendly like Wander or Acuna contracts

 

Yeah I think Vlad will rebound offensively, but right now his 2019, 2020, and 2022 seasons are far closer to each other than they are to his 2021 season. Not to mention the first four months of his 2021 season had him playing his home games in a minor league stadium and spring training complex (don't remember what his home/road splits were but I'd imagine they were somewhat significant). If he was a SS or OF, then no problem, but as a 1B (much less a 1B who previously had body fat issues), it's hard to justify the Tatis-level contract it would take to get him to sign at this point. I don't think he takes 10/300 even at his current performance. He becomes a FA after his age 26 season. That's very young. He's not Acuna or Albies who signed their primes away for way less than they were worth, he's likely looking to maximize his earnings.

 

The extension candidates on this team are probably Kirk and Moreno, as I don't believe they were highly touted so their signing bonuses were probably marginal, though could be wrong on that.

[Brownie19]

Anyone know if Vlad weighs more this year than he did last year?

[John_Havok]

As a point of comparison, fangraphs did a few articles on possible extensions and had vlad down as a 8/174m extension. The only think I don’t understand if that means after arb or right now. It seems really light for right now.

 

It would mean right now. The 8 years would cover his remaining arb years then a few of free agency.

[Daniel Labude]

10/$250M for Vlad

10/$200M for Bo

 

Do both right now

 

Take the risk, get both long term. Build and compete each year

[Stangstag]

As a point of comparison, fangraphs did a few articles on possible extensions and had vlad down as a 8/174m extension. The only think I don’t understand if that means after arb or right now. It seems really light for right now.

 

That seems very fair for both sides TBH. But its extremely light compared to the other mega contracts being handed out and I highly doubt anything below 200mil gets it done

[Stangstag]

10/$250M for Vlad

10/$200M for Bo

 

Do both right now

 

Take the risk, get both long term. Build and compete each year

 

Way too risky

[Daniel Labude]

Way too risky

 

But could be insane value as well. Happy middle and affordable with keeping both imo

[Dagagad]

It would mean right now. The 8 years would cover his remaining arb years then a few of free agency.

 

Interesting. I might have got price anchored by hearing the fanbase call for 300m+ contracts and still went to high with 250m.

 

Maybe 10/200 is closer to a fair deal.

[Solaxys]

The extension candidates on this team are probably Kirk and Moreno, as I don't believe they were highly touted so their signing bonuses were probably marginal, though could be wrong on that.

 

Unless Kirk comes cheap, you wait for at least another year to see if he can replicate these insane numbers (11% Walk Rate, 9.6% K Rate, .406 xWOBA, .883 OPS, 2.9 WAR through half a season while not playing every day - like, actually wtf.)

Just as with Vlad and Bo, the league might adapt (and maybe they kind of did: he's 94 wRC+ in July with .341 SLG) and we have to see if he can rebound.

He has exactly the same issues Vlad does wrt health metrics, and thankfully he is being rested frequently to alleviate fatigue (while Vlad plays mostly every day).

I am still apprehensive of the speed and the need to use DH as a workload regulation spot than a true powerhouse slot, so unless Kirk can repeat these numbers (which I hope he does), got to tread lightly.

Kirk is under control until 2027 and his first ARB is 2024, so we can definitely see what happens next year.

 

Same with Moreno - he has yet to show any power whatsoever up here (his SLG < his OBP up here and barely staying above in AAA across 156 ABs).

He's athletic as f*** though, so maybe there's some development to be made. As with Kirk, unless he comes super cheap, you wait.

There's no reason to commit until he can either show power or utility in multiple positions owing to his athleticism.

 

I rather sign Jansen to a team-friendly contract until this window closes (2025/2026) than take a gamble on Moreno.

[BigCecil]

Way too risky

 

Ya. Have to agree hate to say. Vlads body type. Performance except 21. 1B/DH. I think he needs to work extremely hard to be south of 260. I'm far from an expert in them but Bo's D numbers are pretty bad. Honestly don't think he will be a SS long term even though he has improved and works hard. His pitch selection won't age well. He really is +1 hit -1 D Baez. DET already regrets that deal. Bo is almost 25. Still young but...SS is cruel to aging. I'd definitely sign a long term deal and take some risk but caution is warranted.

[L54]

Yea, I know. I’m not sure what you mean.

 

You said you didn’t know where to find data on swinging in the zone

[Dagagad]

You said you didn’t know where to find data on swinging in the zone

 

Maybe it was unclear but I meant I didn’t know where he was swinging in the zone. Especially in early counts.

[Laika]

Why? Why not just play out his next couple arb years and see if he can repeat 2021? If he does, maybe the price goes up a bit. If he doesn’t, then you dodged a major bullet.

 

Not worth the risk IMO unless its something more team-friendly like Wander or Acuna contracts

 

He's a 23 year old hitting savant with mammoth power and he's a huge marketing pull.

 

I don't see that much risk on the contract. It's not like giving a 28 or 29 year old free agent a 10 year deal.

 

Even fatty Prince Fielder was good through his age 29 season and offered a 2 WAR dead cat bounce at age 31.

 

Prince Fielder = the worst case scenario for Vlad unless he likes coke and boats

 

But his upside is of course Miggy/Pujols........

[Dagagad]

He's a 23 year old hitting savant with mammoth power and he's a huge marketing pull.

 

I don't see that much risk on the contract. It's not like giving a 28 or 29 year old free agent a 10 year deal.

 

Even fatty Prince Fielder was good through his age 29 season and offered a 2 WAR dead cat bounce at age 31.

 

Prince Fielder = the worst case scenario for Vlad unless he likes coke and boats

 

But his upside is of course Miggy/Pujols........

 

What discount are we getting here? Is he really going into free agency and getting 10/350 or 10/400 even as a 26 year old free agent? Correa didn’t get that and he’s a short stop.

 

There’s like a 20% chance that 10/300 ends up being a discount. He’d need to be like a 40 WAR player over the life of the contract. Honestly, he’d need to project WAY higher than that when you take into account all the risk

 

This is not a smart team move. Although, after the Grichuk contract and the insane ‘cost control’ reasoning behind it… we might not be that smart.

 

Edit; also I heard recently that the only thing that drives attendance is winning. I need to track down the study but it sounds about right to me.

[Spanky99]

Has Toronto even attempted a LTD with either of these guys? I mean were there rumours of it or something?

[Dagagad]

Has Toronto even attempted a LTD with either of these guys?

 

You won’t know unless there is a deal or way later.