Around Baseball 2022

[Captain_Obvious]

Probably not but if we can get 2 MVP years out of him it won’t matter

Why not try to extend him before his price balloons? You can get 5 MVP years instead.

[Stangstag]

Why not try to extend him before his price balloons? You can get 5 MVP years instead.

 

Because there’s an off chance he turns into strikeout machine and he has some injury concerns…

 

Idk what a Jansen extension would even look like right now.

 

4/40? 5/40? 5/50? No clue

[Captain_Obvious]

Because there’s an off chance he turns into strikeout machine and he has some injury concerns…

 

Idk what a Jansen extension would even look like right now.

 

4/40? 5/40? 5/50? No clue

 

I mean that's the point. Getting him signed with some question marks allows you to get him for cheap. There is definitely a risk. The risk in my mind is about health not performance. His underlying numbers are too good.

 

5/40 seems reasonable given he will make less than 4M in arb in 2023. But if he has a full season with last years numbers, he will be looking for 15M per year at least. It is similar to Bautista's sitiation, if AA waited 1 more year before extending him, no way he stays a Blue Jay for long.

[wamco]

Are those numbers (extension) starting now or after 2024?

 

Figure 4m in 2023 and maybe 8ish in 2024 as is now?

 

I think he’d want bought out at 12AAV For 2005-2007, no?

 

So I’d think a deal of 5/50 for 2003-2007 would make sense to both sides.

[BTS]

First ever 100M reliever

 

[Stangstag]

First ever 100M reliever

 

 

That’s nuts. This contract has a high likelihood of turning out like the Chapman contract IMO.

 

Good for a couple years then meh/overpaid/afwul for latter half

[Sorrow]

I'd do Nootbar + for Kirk.

 

Nootbar's savant page is pretty.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/lars-nootbaar-663457

[Brownie19]

Not sure if this was posted elsewhere but this tweet spawned a lot of Kirk for Nootbar or Nolan Gorman talk on twitter today. Seems like most Cardinals fans think they are getting the short end of the stick on a trade like that. Can't say I agree with them though.

 

How good is Nootbar going to be? His minor league numbers don't suggest he's a future star, but his statcast #'s were really good last year. Lots of red. Gorman? Pass.

[Carlos Danger]

That’s nuts. This contract has a high likelihood of turning out like the Chapman contract IMO.

 

Good for a couple years then meh/overpaid/afwul for latter half

 

Go back 15-20 years people were freaking out that an RP non closer or a lefty specialist was even getting a few million a year. It is the new norm as baseball has progressed. Closers get paid......

 

I hate it too and from a risk perspective I hate it. However, I think Teams that want to win the WS need to suck it up and get in on the bidding... It would take a lot of luck to build an elite pen and not have to resign a going to be FA in end of contract year, pay for an open market FA, pay high arbitration numbers, or pay in trade value. Unfortunatly big bucks for closers and elite RPs is the new reality.

 

Very difficult to build a complete elite pen with only homegrown farm dudes making MLB minimum or dumpster diving

Edited November 7, 2022 by Carlos Danger

[TheHurl]

Go back 15-20 years people were freaking out that an RP non closer or a lefty specialist was even getting a few million a year. It is the new norm as baseball has progressed. Closers get paid......

 

I hate it too and from a risk perspective I hate it. However, I think Teams that want to win the WS need to suck it up and get in on the bidding... It would take a lot of luck to build an elite pen and not have to resign a going to be FA in end of contract year, pay for an open market FA, pay high arbrition numbers, or pay in trade value. Unfortunatly big bucks for closers and elite RPs is the new reality.

 

Very difficult to build a complete elite pen with only homegrown farm dudes making MLB minimum or dumpster diving

 

but it's not the norm. It's 25-50% higher than the norm. Pressley got $15M but with options after 2 years. Iglesias $14.5M. Hendricks $13M, Will Smith $13M.

 

I know what you are saying (and Diaz is currently better and younger than these guys were), you have to pay for elite players. But I don't believe there is only one way to build a roster. If 2 years of 37 year old Daniel Bard get you a 2 win upgrade elsewhere. The Mets with a tough to repeat season from Diaz, were the 11th best pen last year. They have just paid $21M and still have a dumpster fire. As a standalone signing it's fine. But man Eppler has a job to do with that team. They could be a 3rd luxury tax threshold team and be worse than last year. At least after next year they get Cano off the books.

[Carlos Danger]

but it's not the norm. It's 25-50% higher than the norm. Pressley got $15M but with options after 2 years. Iglesias $14.5M. Hendricks $13M, Will Smith $13M.

 

I know what you are saying (and Diaz is currently better and younger than these guys were), you have to pay for elite players. But I don't believe there is only one way to build a roster. If 2 years of 37 year old Daniel Bard get you a 2 win upgrade elsewhere. The Mets with a tough to repeat season from Diaz, were the 11th best pen last year. They have just paid $21M and still have a dumpster fire. As a standalone signing it's fine. But man Eppler has a job to do with that team. They could be a 3rd luxury tax threshold team and be worse than last year. At least after next year they get Cano off the books.

 

Not saying you have to go on FA spree (multiple FAs) to build an elite pen. Just saying to get a part of a complete pen you are going to need to pay in excess of what was the norm previously. Whether that be trade, FAs etc, the prices are high and don’t see them coming down.

[Jimcanuck]

Diaz contract is not the norm because historically multi year FA contracts to relievers has been very poor. Teams are generally smarter than the Mets.

[Olerud363]

I mean that's the point. Getting him signed with some question marks allows you to get him for cheap. There is definitely a risk. The risk in my mind is about health not performance. His underlying numbers are too good.

 

5/40 seems reasonable given he will make less than 4M in arb in 2023. But if he has a full season with last years numbers, he will be looking for 15M per year at least. It is similar to Bautista's sitiation, if AA waited 1 more year before extending him, no way he stays a Blue Jay for long.

 

5/40 seems reasonable but not sure I'd expect him to be great offensively long term.

 

His career averages are .227 .307 .423. Just because he has good exit velocities doesn't mean the change in performance is a sure bet going forward. I am sure Jorge Soler had great exit velocities in 2019. Not that Soler was terrible going forward, just that he, like almost everyone else that has a big year, returned to his career averages. Sometimes guys like Jose Bautista or EE have a really good 5 year run after a mediocre one, but since the beginning of time the better bet is everybody will return to their career averages no matter age or story.

 

Edit: Check the projections when they are available, they have all the info in their as to how much players like Jansen will regress, doubt anyone on this board can reliably tell who is the exception that won't regress. I think that's why Terminator is making fun of the eye glasses. Half the board thinks Jansen is a .260 .340 .550 hitter now that he has the right glasses now.

[Spanky__99]

The term is high, but he's been worth that AAV.

[Pendleton]

[connorp]

Diaz contract is not the norm because historically multi year FA contracts to relievers has been very poor. Teams are generally smarter than the Mets.

 

Most of the 8-10 year mega contracts have historically been poor. They keep getting signed

[connorp]

Shut down RP are disproportionately paid for the post-season. They become more valuable too bc they’re available every game and more pitches if needed. Also their contributions are much more impactful in playoff games than say someone’s UZR that gives them value over 162 games but becomes less important in a 3 game series for instance

 

RPs are also less likely to get injured as a SP and they’re less likely to decline as fast as a hitter.

 

I wouldn’t buy one, but I’d trade Danny J for a Sergio Santos do-over

[Spanky__99]

Shut down RP are disproportionately paid for the post-season. They become more valuable too bc they’re available every game and more pitches if needed. Also their contributions are much more impactful in playoff games than say someone’s UZR that gives them value over 162 games but becomes less important in a 3 game series for instance

 

RPs are also less likely to get injured as a SP and they’re less likely to decline as fast as a hitter.

 

I wouldn’t buy one, but I’d trade Danny J for a Sergio Santos do-over

 

lol... so who's your Sergio Santos do over?

[Jimcanuck]

Most of the 8-10 year mega contracts have historically been poor. They keep getting signed

 

Multi year reliever contracts have been the worst of all, is my point

[connorp]

lol... so who's your Sergio Santos do over?

 

Do your own homework Spanky. Find some guys

[connorp]

Multi year reliever contracts have been the worst of all, is my point

 

It’s the same principle, just a different scale. On a 10 year deal, there’s at least 3-4 “cost of doing business” years in there. When it’s a 5yr RP, it’s more like 1 or 2. In that sense, I’d be surprised if it’s much different

[Spanky__99]

Do your own homework Spanky. Find some guys

 

So, you're an idiot, gotcha.

[connorp]

So, you're an idiot, gotcha.

 

I’m wife shopping ATM in Tunisia. Hot 22&23yo choices that you would cream your pants for old-timer. Look up some guys yourself, they’re there

[Jimcanuck]

I’m wife shopping ATM in Tunisia. Hot 22&23yo choices that you would cream your pants for old-timer. Look up some guys yourself, they’re there

 

Didn't you learn your lesson already? You are gonna get taken to the cleaners again, my man

 

After sleeping on the couch again, for months

[John_Havok]

I’m wife shopping ATM in Tunisia. Hot 22&23yo choices that you would cream your pants for old-timer. Look up some guys yourself, they’re there

 

Put yourself in their catalog, then you'll get real results.

[Jimcanuck]

It’s the same principle, just a different scale. On a 10 year deal, there’s at least 3-4 “cost of doing business” years in there. When it’s a 5yr RP, it’s more like 1 or 2. In that sense, I’d be surprised if it’s much different

 

Nah, do your homework, look up some guys yourself, they're there

[Spanky__99]

I’m wife shopping ATM in Tunisia. Hot 22&23yo choices that you would cream your pants for old-timer. Look up some guys yourself, they’re there

 

Dude, you're sad, how'd the plastic surgery go? lmao

 

As for the players, you haven't a clue. Like in anything actually.

[connorp]

Didn't you learn your lesson already? You are gonna get taken to the cleaners again, my man

 

After sleeping on the couch again, for months

 

No financial repercussions from last time. Stuff was signed. Allahs plan I would end up with Muslim wife. I’m getting close to that point I can’t lie and say I’m in my 30’s anymore. Clock is ticking

[connorp]

Dude, you're sad, how'd the plastic surgery go? lmao

 

As for the players, you haven't a clue. Like in anything actually.

 

Seriously, Botox is worth it. I would highly recommend it. It’s not plastic surgery

[connorp]

Nah, do your homework, look up some guys yourself, they're there

 

There’s bad deals anywhere you look. What’s your backup that RP deals are worst of all. The fact it came from your ass doesn’t make it gospel