Around Baseball 2022

Laika · September 30, 2022

Vlad's numbers are a clean illustration of the changing run environment

2019 + 2020:

.269/.336/.442

2022:

.275/.338/.475

Basically the same, right?

Well 2019+2020 was 7% better than league average while 2022 is 30% better. 107 wRC+ vs 130 wRC+.

The difference between being a 3 WAR player and a replacement level guy. Sort of. Basically.

Main point being don't just look at the slashline and think he has regressed all the way to his pre-2021 talent. He has not slipped that much.

It has been closer to a ~50% correction to the downside.

jaysblue · September 30, 2022

DeGrom vs Fried tonight
should be huge

Then Scherzer vs Wright

Then Bassitt vs Morton

feels like a playoff series with these matchups

Atlanta is the better team in my opinion, though will definitely be a fun series to watch this weekend!

Virgil_Hiltz · September 30, 2022

Sorry...not internet savvy here but here's an awesome link to a drone tour of Wrigley Park and neighbourhood.

Carlos Danger · September 30, 2022

Jays and Rays have an excuse - we're playing tough teams (and Jays 4/5 spots were terrible both times in that span).
Os/Ms on the other hand have none.

Os bullpen decided to throw in the towel and Ms lack of offensive depth is in full bloom.

I wouldn't say lack of offensive depth is an accurate portrayal of the M’s. Their top 4 is pretty solid and they have a lot of upside at 5 and 6. They also have a nice balance of. power and speedy contact guys which ended up paying off in their win last night.

I would not take the M’s lightly in a series..

Laika · September 30, 2022

I wouldn't say lack of offensive depth is an accurate portrayal of the M’s. Their top 4 is pretty solid and they have a lot of upside at 5 and 6. They also have a nice balance of. power and speedy contact guys which ended up paying off in their win last night.

I would not take the M’s lightly in a series..

I think it's a fair criticism.

J Rod - star

France - gooooood

Suarez - gooooood

Winker - hasn't got it going all year

Haniger - hasn't got it going all year

Raleigh - okay but a one trick bat

Crawford - 100 wRC+, fine I guess

Kelenic - hole in swing? really just a lotto ticket at bat

Frazier - bad but at least he doesn't strike out much

Moore - all over the place, who knows

Yeah there is diversity but after the top of the order it's a whole lot of league average. Or players with flaws or going through some s***.

Comp to Toronto where they can throw 7 or 8 comfortably above average to very good hitters at you every single night.

I think that number is 3 for Seattle. Maybe 4 if you give them Raleigh or Moore but I hesitate to think of them like Matt Chapman or Teoscar, offensively.

Solaxys · September 30, 2022

I wouldn't say lack of offensive depth is an accurate portrayal of the M’s. Their top 4 is pretty solid and they have a lot of upside at 5 and 6. They also have a nice balance of. power and speedy contact guys which ended up paying off in their win last night.

I would not take the M’s lightly in a series..

Its not that their offense is bad or unsuited for playoffs, just their offensive depth - i.e. injuries to JRod/Geno really slowed them down over the stretch of games and they couldn't find suitable replacement; sure in SSS, you can say September Kelenic has been a thing but even then, he is no substitute for JRod who was also on a tear before the injury.

Comparatively, us with injuries to Springer/Teo/Gurriel/Kirk along different stretches of the year as well as. in a recent case, overlapping (Springer/Gurriel hurt at the same time), and some heavy slumps from Bo/Vlad, we still remained one of the best offenses in the game.

Carlos Danger · September 30, 2022

I think it's a fair criticism.

J Rod - star
France - gooooood
Suarez - gooooood
Winker - hasn't got it going all year
Haniger - hasn't got it going all year
Raleigh - okay but a one trick bat
Crawford - 100 wRC+, fine I guess
Kelenic - hole in swing? really just a lotto ticket at bat
Frazier - bad but at least he doesn't strike out much
Moore - all over the place, who knows

Yeah there is diversity but after the top of the order it's a whole lot of league average. Or players with flaws or going through some s***.

Comp to Toronto where they can throw 7 or 8 comfortably above average to very good hitters at you every single night.

I think that number is 3 for Seattle. Maybe 4 if you give them Raleigh or Moore but I hesitate to think of them like Matt Chapman or Teoscar, offensively.

Winker def hasn’t got it going this year. However, I think Haniger is just finally warmed up after his IL or out for the game/s due to nagging injuries/rest stints.

His last 7 games he is hitting .316 avg 429 OBP and 636 SLG%

Cal Raleigh has shown upside at the MLB level. Kelenic has the pedigree and has started to warm up.

I would def say the Blue Jays have a longer lineup depending on who is in it. I just wouldn’t say that there is a HUGE gap, definitely more nuanced IMO.

Laika · September 30, 2022

Winker def hasn’t got it going this year. However, I think Haniger is just finally warmed up after his IL or out for the game/s due to nagging injuries/rest stints.

His last 7 games he is hitting .316 avg 429 OBP and 636 SLG%

Cal Raleigh has shown upside at the MLB level. Kelenic has the pedigree and has started to warm up.

I would def say the Blue Jays have a longer lineup depending on who is in it. I just wouldn’t say that there is a HUGE gap, definitely more nuanced IMO.

I dunno. It's probably a complete standard deviation difference.

Toronto is 9 points of wRC+ better this year.

Seattle is 9 points of wRC+ better than the CUBS, who are 20th in offense.

So the gap between Toronto and the Ms is as big as the gap between the Ms and some certifiably below average teams.

Seattle is a tier 3 offense. They are in there with teams like the Twins, Phillies, Brewers, Red Sox, Rays.

Terminator · September 30, 2022

The Jays offense is really underrated this year, particularly among Jays fans themselves. I think for a couple of reasons. One, no one on the team is really having a standout year other than perhaps our Catching duo.

Second, and probably more importantly, offense is down in a big way this year but fan expectations for hitters are not.

Take note:

-2021 runs = 4.53 per game

-2022 runs = 4.3 per game

-2021 average OPS = .728

-2022 average OPS = .707

A great example is Bo Bichette. Last year his slash line was .298/.343/.484, good for a wRC+ of 122. This year his slash line is down across the board with a .285/.329/.470 line but even so his wRC+ is 127, higher than last year.

Edited September 30, 2022 by Terminator

Omar · September 30, 2022

The Jays offense is really underrated this year, particularly among Jays fans themselves. I think for a couple of reasons. One, no one on the team is really having a standout year other than perhaps our Catching duo. Second, and probably more importantly, offense is down in a big way this year but fan expectations for hitters are not. Take note:

-2021 runs per game = 4.53. 2022 runs per game = 4.3.
-2021 average OPS = .728. 2022 average OPS = .707.

A great example is Bo Bichette. Last year his slash line was .298/.343/.484, good for a wRC+ of 122. This year his slash line is down across the board with a .285/.329/.470 line but even so his wRC+ is 127, higher than last year.

We are really missing the longball this year. Deadball early in the season not withstanding, last year we led the league with 262, this year we will be lucky to finish with 195 homeruns. I haven't crunched the numbers but I bet it is among the biggest dropoff for any team vs 2021.

Terminator · September 30, 2022

We are really missing the longball this year. Deadball early in the season not withstanding, last year we led the league with 262, this year we will be lucky to finish with 195 homeruns. I haven't crunched the numbers but I bet it is among the biggest dropoff for any team vs 2021.

Well the homers themselves are down across the board with the new ball but yeah we aren't as good as last year even with that in mind. We were 1st last year and are 9th this year. Even so we are 3rd in OPS and 6th in runs.

Stangstag · September 30, 2022

We are really missing the longball this year. Deadball early in the season not withstanding, last year we led the league with 262, this year we will be lucky to finish with 195 homeruns. I haven't crunched the numbers but I bet it is among the biggest dropoff for any team vs 2021.

Its hard to discount the fact that we played in minor league parks for half the season last year when you see the drastic drop in homerun numbers

Omar · September 30, 2022

Its hard to discount the fact that we played in minor league parks for half the season last year when you see the drastic drop in homerun numbers

The dimensions of those parks are equivalent to Rogers Centre.

Omar · September 30, 2022

Well the homers themselves are down across the board with the new ball but yeah we aren't as good as last year even with that in mind. We were 1st last year and are 9th this year. Even so we are 3rd in OPS and 6th in runs.

Its hard to discount the fact that we played in minor league parks for half the season last year when you see the drastic drop in homerun numbers

Don't forget about losing Grichuk and Semien. They accounted for 67 long balls last year.

Stangstag · September 30, 2022

Sorry...not internet savvy here but here's an awesome link to a drone tour of Wrigley Park and neighbourhood.

Very cool vid

Stangstag · September 30, 2022

The dimensions of those parks are equivalent to Rogers Centre.

Park factors?? Idk, like I said I think its hard to just hand wave it off like it means nothing

Stangstag · September 30, 2022

Don't forget about losing Grichuk and Semien. They accounted for 67 long balls last year.

Replaced Semien with Chapman though. We had like no power from 3B all year. Basically just moved the power from 2B to 3B. Grichuk yeah, and Gurriel’s homerun numbers took a nosedive this season

Omar · September 30, 2022

The dimensions of those parks are equivalent to Rogers Centre.

Park factors?? Idk, like I said I think its hard to just hand wave it off like it means nothing

From pitcherlist.com

The difference is negligible.

Potential Blue Jays Home Stadium Park Factors (via THE BAT X)

[TABLE=class: dataTableLaunch bold centered no-footer dataTable, width: 862]

[TR]

[TH=class: sorting_disabled, align: center]Park[/TH]

[TH=class: sorting_disabled, align: center]wOBA[/TH]

[TH=class: sorting_disabled, align: center]BA[/TH]

[TH=class: sorting_disabled, align: center]HR[/TH]

[TH=class: sorting_disabled, align: center]K[/TH]

[TH=class: sorting_disabled, align: center]BB[/TH]

[TH=class: sorting_disabled, align: center]BABIP[/TH]

[/TR]

[TR=class: odd]

[TD=align: center]TD Ballpark (Dunedin)[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.01[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.00[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.12[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.03[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.00[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: even]

[TD=align: center]Sahlen Field (Buffalo)[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.01[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.05[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.04[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.00[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.02[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: odd]

[TD=align: center]Rogers Centre (Toronto)[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.00[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0.99[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.09[/TD]

[TD=align: center]1.00[/TD]

[TD=align: center]0.97[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

L54 · September 30, 2022

Sorry...not internet savvy here but here's an awesome link to a drone tour of Wrigley Park and neighbourhood.

That’s great thanks for sharing

Spanky__99 · September 30, 2022

Sorry...not internet savvy here but here's an awesome link to a drone tour of Wrigley Park and neighbourhood.

That was wild, :cool:

Solaxys · October 1, 2022

Ms taking another tie into the extras (bottom of 9th right now tied)

Solaxys · October 1, 2022

jk walkoff by Raleigh to take them into postseason.

Stangstag · October 1, 2022

Holy s*** what a finish for the Mariners… 2nd walkoff in a row. Something special happening there.

Congrats on them for ending the drought

Spanky__99 · October 1, 2022

Glad Jays won.

WryNGinger · October 1, 2022

Damn...Manoah and Bichette both have legit claims to AL player of the month.

Grant77 · October 1, 2022

Los Angeles has 48 losses against the entire league.

Boston has 48 losses against the AL East.

G-Snarls · October 1, 2022

Los Angeles has 48 losses against the entire league.

Boston has 48 losses against the AL East.

Let's make it 49 today!

glory · October 1, 2022

Holy s*** what a finish for the Mariners… 2nd walkoff in a row. Something special happening there.

Congrats on them for ending the drought

Yeah I remember how it felt in 2015 for the Jays drought to finally be over and to be able to watch the Jays in the playoffs again. Happy for Seattle fans.