Around Baseball 2022

[Horses Fart]

Only the Yankees. Congrats to Judge tho.

[Solaxys]

Man as soon as Stanton came off the DL he started crushing and the Yankees are flying again.

 

Stanton has been very bad tbh.

 

That was just Pirates pitcher pulling a Kikuchi. And 3-2 count, bases loaded, Stanton knew he was getting FB - he threw FB. so...

[jaysblue]

Man as soon as Stanton came off the DL he started crushing and the Yankees are flying again.

 

Stanton has been awful since returning from the IL. As a fantasy owner, I know haha!

[Solaxys]

Actually ridiculous that Judge is going to get MVP and Triple Crown.

[Spanky99]

Tony Kemp with a 3 run homer off Castillo??? Noice.

[Stangstag]

Stanton has been awful since returning from the IL. As a fantasy owner, I know haha!

 

Huh, I feel like i’ve seen a bunch of highlights of him hitting homers these past couple weeks

[Grant77]

Tony Kemp with a 3 run homer off Castillo??? Noice.

 

Seattle showing they are a mediocre team without J Rod in the lineup to save them.

[Spanky99]

Seattle showing they are a mediocre team without J Rod in the lineup to save them.

 

He is in the lineup?

[Grant77]

He is in the lineup?

 

Even worse. He was expected to miss the game with back issues as of this afternoon.

[Solaxys]

Clase blew the save!

[Spanky99]

Even worse. He was expected to miss the game with back issues as of this afternoon.

 

1 hitter, it's a beautiful thing. 3 more outs and we're up 2.5 games.

[Stangstag]

Ms lose. Nice. Feels like we have a great shot at home field advantage so long as we play well against the Rays this weekend

[Solaxys]

Clase blew the save!

 

Guardians reply with 5-runs in the top of the 11th - probably sealing Sox' fate.

[P2F]

Drey Jameson's slider is pretty good.

 

[The Cats Ass]

I hope to god Judge signs with the Giants or something this offseason.

 

What an absolute monster season. I still think Ohtani is MVP, but Judge will probably win it based on narrative.

 

Judge deserves it. If Ohtani wins it's based on narrative, just because he can hit and pitch doesn't mean he should be guaranteed MVP each season. Judge has almost 2 WAR up on him. He's is putting up the best hitting season in the MLB since Bonds retired.

[Olerud363]

Seattle showing they are a mediocre team without J Rod in the lineup to save them.

 

Good God. Are we going to have to listen to 'Seattle is a mediocre team' narrative for the next 5 years?

 

I'll admit they will take a big hit if J-Rod is hobbled given Saurez is on the DL. Those guys are both playing really well, so yes, you take any teams 2 best position players and they will be mediocre.

 

Team has a 104 OPS+ and is in the top 4 in the AL in homers and walks. Above average offense, and obviously above average pitching.

[Olerud363]

Judge deserves it. If Ohtani wins it's based on narrative, just because he can hit and pitch doesn't mean he should be guaranteed MVP each season. Judge has almost 2 WAR up on him. He's is putting up the best hitting season in the MLB since Bonds retired.

 

Potential Triple crown + first 60 homer season in AL in 60 years, + AL homer record, + good defense, + leading league in WAR.

 

I can't see how it is even a debate. I think people think since last year it was a debate, it should be this year, but Judge is like going to beat Vlad 2021 in WAR by 11 to 6.5.

[glory]

Yeah on top of all the amazing offensive numbers, Judge has played quite a bit of CF this season and is a positive defender there. So even on defense he is extremely valuable. There is no question he should be the MVP this season.

[G-Snarls]

100% Judge should and will win MVP

[Laika]

Judge deserves it. If Ohtani wins it's based on narrative, just because he can hit and pitch doesn't mean he should be guaranteed MVP each season. Judge has almost 2 WAR up on him. He's is putting up the best hitting season in the MLB since Bonds retired.

 

Does WAR work for Ohtani?

 

He arguably gets the DH penalty unfairly

 

It does not capture the value of the "added roster spot" he brings either

[Grant77]

Good God. Are we going to have to listen to 'Seattle is a mediocre team' narrative for the next 5 years?

 

I'll admit they will take a big hit if J-Rod is hobbled given Saurez is on the DL. Those guys are both playing really well, so yes, you take any teams 2 best position players and they will be mediocre.

 

Team has a 104 OPS+ and is in the top 4 in the AL in homers and walks. Above average offense, and obviously above average pitching.

 

You do realize that 100 is an average OPS+, correct? That means 104 is pretty much average. Every division and wildcard leader but Cleveland has an OPS+ over 110. That includes both leagues.

 

Home runs and walks are important, but the team is also 28th in batting average between the Pirates and Tigers. A team that bad hasn't made the playoffs in at least a decade, perhaps far longer.

 

The pitching is also 8th out of 15 AL teams, so forgive me for taking your unfounded opinion with a grain of salt. The other playoff teams in the AL are 1st (Hou), 2nd (NYY), 3rd (Cle), (4th TB), and 6th (Tor).

 

Saying that an average hitting, pitching, and defensive team is mediocre shouldn't be a controversial statement.They just got 1 hit by Oakland for god sakes.

[Grant77]

Does WAR work for Ohtani?

 

He arguably gets the DH penalty unfairly

 

It does not capture the value of the "added roster spot" he brings either

 

Eno Sarris, recently on Sportsnet 590, said that the extra roster spot is by definition going to be a replacement level player and would not play a role in his voting process.

[mphenhef]

It really depends for me on whether he is counted as one of the pitchers or not. If they get to add an extra bat this sentiment is probably correct but if they got to add an extra pitcher I think that is a bigger deal.

[Laika]

It really depends for me on whether he is counted as one of the pitchers or not. If they get to add an extra bat this sentiment is probably correct but if they got to add an extra pitcher I think that is a bigger deal.

 

Isn't the Ohtani rule that he does not count as a pitcher, towards the limit on arms?

 

I do think the notion that the extra player is a near replacement level in every organization so Ohtani allowing an extra roster spot has little/no value is too simplistic.

 

Even if the extra man is a replacement level reliever:

 

1) that could mean less stress on your GOOD relievers, increasing their production

2) that could mean you get to have valuable MLB looks at promising replacement level players. So some benefits in development, or roster churn.

 

 

Like, I bet the Rays would benefit A LOT from having a player like Ohtani.

 

A team could literally use the "extra reliever" as a waiver claim churn spot. If the team is any good at hunting for gems, once in a while that "extra guy" could end up as a real bullpen dude.

 

But the Angels are benefiting NOT AT ALL lmao. Because they suck as an org.

 

So the extra roster spot could be worthless for the Angels and all bad orgs, but could be valuable for a smart org. I think.

[Olerud363]

You do realize that 100 is an average OPS+, correct? That means 104 is pretty much average. Every division and wildcard leader but Cleveland has an OPS+ over 110. That includes both leagues.

 

Home runs and walks are important, but the team is also 28th in batting average between the Pirates and Tigers. A team that bad hasn't made the playoffs in at least a decade, perhaps far longer.

 

The pitching is also 8th out of 15 AL teams, so forgive me for taking your unfounded opinion with a grain of salt. The other playoff teams in the AL are 1st (Hou), 2nd (NYY), 3rd (Cle), (4th TB), and 6th (Tor).

 

Saying that an average hitting, pitching, and defensive team is mediocre shouldn't be a controversial statement.They just got 1 hit by Oakland for god sakes.

 

Cleveland and Tampa Bay both have worse OPS+ as compared to Seattle. As does San Diego.

 

OPS+ isn't even a great stat. However Seattle is 5th best in the AL using that Stat, 4th out of the 6 playoff teams.

 

Seattle is 5th in position player WAR in the AL, 8th in pitching WAR, but that is deceiving because it is weighting the low k rate of bulk starters too much while Castillo and Kirby, who may be the 1/2 in the playoffs have fewer regular season innings for Seattle.

 

You are acting like Seattle is a historically bad playoff team, and going on and on about it, passive aggressively mentioning it in unrelated threads. They are not. They are pretty much what you'd expect from a wild card team that improved at the deadline.

[Olerud363]

You do realize that 100 is an average OPS+, correct? That means 104 is pretty much average. Every division and wildcard leader but Cleveland has an OPS+ over 110. That includes both leagues.

 

Home runs and walks are important, but the team is also 28th in batting average between the Pirates and Tigers. A team that bad hasn't made the playoffs in at least a decade, perhaps far longer.

 

The pitching is also 8th out of 15 AL teams, so forgive me for taking your unfounded opinion with a grain of salt. The other playoff teams in the AL are 1st (Hou), 2nd (NYY), 3rd (Cle), (4th TB), and 6th (Tor).

 

Saying that an average hitting, pitching, and defensive team is mediocre shouldn't be a controversial statement.They just got 1 hit by Oakland for god sakes.

 

The 2021 NY Yankees made the playoffs with an offense as weak as Seattle's

 

They hit .237 3rd last in the AL, with a 100 OPS+.

 

When factoring in 2021 vs 2022 league norms and the ball park the .237 Yankees average is just as weak as Seattle's this year.

[Laika]

Have to kind of ignore WAR at this point anyway, and just do an assessment of the projected value/talent of the teams in question.

 

Of course WAR will correlate highly with that

 

But sometimes there are big differences. Like with Seattle.... Haniger and Winker are (I think) significantly better than their 2022 production to date and projections agree.

 

In the rotation:

 

Ray is (I think) better than his FIP/WAR this season

Kirby was in the minors for a bit to team WAR in 2022 misses out on measuring some of his "talent"

Castillo deadline acquisition, so team WAR in 2022 misses out on measuring basically all of "talent"

 

Bullpen - pretty nutty if you look at stuff and K rate. Possible its value is missed by WAR and it could be a postseason difference maker.

 

I still don't think they are awesome because on the whole the bats are still clearly behind some of the other playoff teams. And in the rotation despite incredible depth 1-4 they arguably don't have any shutdown, playoff style Aces. Too early to call Gilbert or Kirby that. Ray is a HR liability always. Castillo, not really an Ace.

[mphenhef]

Looking at some stats today, I think this is what has won me over to the Judge for MVP side of the argument. For Aaron Judge:

 

Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+

in Wins 86 86 397 334 96 117 17 0 48 102 10 1 53 88 .350 .438 .832 1.270 278 8 3 0 5 11 1 .340 123 201

in Losses 57 53 239 195 27 50 8 0 12 26 6 2 40 71 .256 .388 .482 .870 94 6 2 0 0 6 0 .339 61 195

[Olerud363]

You do realize that 100 is an average OPS+, correct? That means 104 is pretty much average. Every division and wildcard leader but Cleveland has an OPS+ over 110. That includes both leagues.

 

Home runs and walks are important, but the team is also 28th in batting average between the Pirates and Tigers. A team that bad hasn't made the playoffs in at least a decade, perhaps far longer.

 

The pitching is also 8th out of 15 AL teams, so forgive me for taking your unfounded opinion with a grain of salt. The other playoff teams in the AL are 1st (Hou), 2nd (NYY), 3rd (Cle), (4th TB), and 6th (Tor).

 

Saying that an average hitting, pitching, and defensive team is mediocre shouldn't be a controversial statement.They just got 1 hit by Oakland for god sakes.

 

 

The 2021 Milwaukee Brewers had an OPS+ of 92. 90 f***ING 2!!!!!

 

They had some walks, homers and luck. They hit .233. Second last in the league.

 

What the hell is wrong with you? Teams with a low batting average make the playoffs all the time. It happened twice last year.

 

Of course I'm sure you'll say a team that hit .228 never made the playoffs in 400 years... well maybe, I haven't looked that closely yet, but 2021 Brewers and Yankees were worse that the 2022 Mariners in hitting for average... but league norm and park dings 2022 Mariners a bit and gets them under .230.

[Olerud363]

Have to kind of ignore WAR at this point anyway, and just do an assessment of the projected value/talent of the teams in question.

 

Of course WAR will correlate highly with that

 

But sometimes there are big differences. Like with Seattle.... Haniger and Winker are (I think) significantly better than their 2022 production to date and projections agree.

 

In the rotation:

 

Ray is (I think) better than his FIP/WAR this season

Kirby was in the minors for a bit to team WAR in 2022 misses out on measuring some of his "talent"

Castillo deadline acquisition, so team WAR in 2022 misses out on measuring basically all of "talent"

 

Bullpen - pretty nutty if you look at stuff and K rate. Possible its value is missed by WAR and it could be a postseason difference maker.

 

I still don't think they are awesome because on the whole the bats are still clearly behind some of the other playoff teams. And in the rotation despite incredible depth 1-4 they arguably don't have any shutdown, playoff style Aces. Too early to call Gilbert or Kirby that. Ray is a HR liability always. Castillo, not really an Ace.

 

 

Seattle isn't particularly strong or weak compared to expectations for a wild card team. I have no idea why he is going on about this. I guess he was playing around with fangraphs, found out they were 8th in pitching fWAR (which is probably under-rating them) and they hit .228 as a team, which is unique for a playoff team. (As an aside it is kind of interesting for 'old school' money ball fans, that when you add in homers, walks and park factor they are a above average offence).

 

Why doesn't he just take the victory lap for his predictions about the 2022 Boston Red Sox? He was totally right about that one. He can bring up his old posts and gloat. Why the need for this Mariners thing?