Around Baseball 2022

[The Cats Ass]

Does WAR work for Ohtani?

 

He arguably gets the DH penalty unfairly

 

It does not capture the value of the "added roster spot" he brings either

 

The Angels got negative WAR out of the player they added to the roster, does that mean we should subtract that amount from Ohtani's total?

 

I think having the extra roster spot is worth more in fantasy baseball than real life.

[Laika]

The Angels got negative WAR out of the player they added to the roster, does that mean we should subtract that amount from Ohtani's total?

 

I don't think so. It's an abstraction - think of it like a positional adjustment.

 

We first just need an accurate and holistic measurement of what the extra roster spot is worth (this is extremely hard if not impossible)

Then you apply that figure to Ohtani. Because he unlocks that potential value.

[BTS]

Yeah, not buying the Mariners as just a middle of the road pitching staff right now. I'm not sure there are 10 guys I'd want to start more than Castillo in a playoff game, and they should be starting one of him, Kirby, Gilbert, and Ray in every game. With the Castillo addition, Kirby arriving and turning into a borderline ace, and Gilbert maybe hitting another level over the last month, they're a lot better than they were at the start of the season. And there are few bullpens I'd take over theirs right now.

[Dr. Dinger]

Isn't the Ohtani rule that he does not count as a pitcher, towards the limit on arms?

 

I do think the notion that the extra player is a near replacement level in every organization so Ohtani allowing an extra roster spot has little/no value is too simplistic.

 

Even if the extra man is a replacement level reliever:

 

1) that could mean less stress on your GOOD relievers, increasing their production

2) that could mean you get to have valuable MLB looks at promising replacement level players. So some benefits in development, or roster churn.

 

 

Like, I bet the Rays would benefit A LOT from having a player like Ohtani.

 

A team could literally use the "extra reliever" as a waiver claim churn spot. If the team is any good at hunting for gems, once in a while that "extra guy" could end up as a real bullpen dude.

 

But the Angels are benefiting NOT AT ALL lmao. Because they suck as an org.

 

So the extra roster spot could be worthless for the Angels and all bad orgs, but could be valuable for a smart org. I think.

 

There is no extra reliever if Ohtani doesn’t pitch every 5th day; they have to use a 6 man rotation to accomodate him. It’s a false extra roster spot.

[Laika]

There is no extra reliever if Ohtani doesn’t pitch every 5th day; they have to use a 6 man rotation to accomodate him. It’s a false extra roster spot.

 

Do they ever use those extra SP as relievers, in between their starts?

[The Cats Ass]

I don't think so. It's an abstraction - think of it like a positional adjustment.

 

We first just need an accurate and holistic measurement of what the extra roster spot is worth (this is extremely hard if not impossible)

Then you apply that figure to Ohtani. Because he unlocks that potential value.

 

I agree the extra roster spot is worth more to a team that is smart to use it correctly, but we're talking about the Angels at this point in time. I don't think potential value should be considered for award voting. That'd be kinda like giving a Rockies pitcher the CY Young, even if all his stats are slightly worse than some other pitcher, because of the environment they're playing in.

[John_Havok]

Looking at AL ranks, Seatlle ranks 5th in pretty much everything as a team... wRC+, Def, fWAR... run differential they're one of the 7 teams with a positve run diff and its pnly 8 runs different than the Jays. I dont think it's a stretch to say they're a solid wildcard team.

 

Side note, all wildcard teams have a better record than Cleveland. God the Central sucks so much ass.

[Dr. Dinger]

Do they ever use those extra SP as relievers, in between their starts?

 

The Angels obviously don’t have enough good pitchers to even make that worthwhile, but if you are theoretically doing a bullpen day that frequently you’re surely negating any rest advantage of having an “extra” reliever.

[The Cats Ass]

Wonder if the Rays sign him next offseason after the Angels finish with a <.500 win % and let him walk for nothing.

[BTS]

Wonder if the Rays sign him next offseason after the Angels finish with a <.500 win % and let him walk for nothing.

 

The Rays?

[The Cats Ass]

They should be trading him this offseason, it's the only thing that makes sense for them. A blurb from the end of last year; “I really like the team. I love the fans. I love the atmosphere of the team,” Ohtani said via an interpreter. “But, more than that, I want to win. That’s the biggest thing for me. I’ll leave it at that.” That doesn't sound like a player that would be willing to stay with the Angels as they are right now at this moment.

[The Cats Ass]

The Rays?

 

Weren't they in on Freeman? Maybe they have some kind of sciency thing that tells them Ohtani would be worth it to them. Maybe the Rays could also use him in a play to force a team move. It would look bad on the MLB to have their potential top asset playing in front of sub-10,000 crowds.

Edited September 21, 2022 by The Cats Ass

[jaysblue]

I don't see the Rays being able to sign Ohtani.

 

Yankees likely can though especially if they don't resign Judge. If Ohtani wants to stay on the west coast - Mariners, Giants or Dodgers.

[John_Havok]

I don't see the Rays being able to sign Ohtani.

 

Yankees likely can though especially if they don't resign Judge. If Ohtani wants to stay on the west coast - Mariners, Giants or Dodgers.

 

NO chance the Rays sign Ohtani, that Freeman stuff was just lip service for sure.

[John_Havok]

What would a trade package even look like for Ohtani?

 

Top 3-ish prospects plus at least 1-2 young position players that don't suck? I mean its the Angels so they're definitely gonna screw up even if they do trade him

 

At the deadline, Morosi had speculated a trade of Ohtani to the jays would require Tiedemann, Moreno, Max Castillo and Orelvis.

Edited September 21, 2022 by John_Havok

[Brownie19]

I don't really understand why FA's would want to sign in SF. It looks to me like that team is miles away from competing.

[Brownie19]

Major countdown for Pujols to get 700. It's going to be f***ing tight!

[Spanky__99]

Does WAR work for Ohtani?

 

He arguably gets the DH penalty unfairly

 

It does not capture the value of the "added roster spot" he brings either

 

Brian Kenny did this on Ohtani, with WPA citing it was the fairest way to rate the 2, it was closer than the WAR numbers, but Judge still edged him out. By added roster spot, you mean him staying in games to still hit after being pulled? The Angels use a 6 man rotation, they work on the same rest for the most part.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Spanky99

[Stangstag]

I don't really understand why FA's would want to sign in SF. It looks to me like that team is miles away from competing.

 

1. Money

2. City/weather

3. Money

[Dr. Dinger]

Major countdown for Pujols to get 700. It's going to be f***ing tight!

 

I hope he finishes on 699.

[Spanky__99]

I hope he finishes on 699.

 

lol... I think I know the answer, but why, you a sadist?

[Laika]

Pujols will be at 699 in the last game

 

STL will bat him leadoff and the other team will only throw him fastballs in the zone

 

He'll fly out on the warning track 5 times

[Brownie19]

1. Money

2. City/weather

3. Money

 

I thought the weather in SF wasn't great? SD on the other hand...

[Solaxys]

[Omar]

 

No one in their right mind would want to fight Yandy Diaz.

[Laika]

Diaz has a .133 career ISO

 

He has big biceps but he probably punches like a baby

[Grant77]

Cleveland and Tampa Bay both have worse OPS+ as compared to Seattle. As does San Diego.

 

OPS+ isn't even a great stat. However Seattle is 5th best in the AL using that Stat, 4th out of the 6 playoff teams.

 

Seattle is 5th in position player WAR in the AL, 8th in pitching WAR, but that is deceiving because it is weighting the low k rate of bulk starters too much while Castillo and Kirby, who may be the 1/2 in the playoffs have fewer regular season innings for Seattle.

 

You are acting like Seattle is a historically bad playoff team, and going on and on about it, passive aggressively mentioning it in unrelated threads. They are not. They are pretty much what you'd expect from a wild card team that improved at the deadline.

 

Notice that I said every division and wildcard leader except Cleveland. It's true, so I'm not sure what you are trying to correct.

 

You brought up OPS+ in your original tantrum so I responded with it. wRC+ is going to give you the same story.

 

I'm not buying the cherry picking of the starters. If you remove the worst pitchers from the Blue Jays rotation then it's obviously going to look a lot better as well. Additions like Bass are not reflected in our statistics either, nor are they for any other team.

 

In September, the Blue Jays bullpen has been top 10 and Seattle's has been replacement level at 0.0 WAR. I don't think that's a particularly useful statement, but it's no different than what you are doing.

 

Seattle isn't a historically bad playoff team. When 6 of 15 teams make it, you would expect an average team in a weak division to have a shot at a wildcard spot. This isn't particularly surprising. I don't think they are much different than the Orioles or red sox in terms of talent, but the division makes a huge difference.

[jaysblue]

I thought the weather in SF wasn't great? SD on the other hand...

 

It can get very foggy and gets very cool late at night. It's comfortable weather for sure, though for warmth and beaches San Diego is far better all year round.

[G-Snarls]

I am enjoying the Tampa problems/fall in standings

[G-Snarls]

I thought the weather in SF wasn't great? SD on the other hand...

 

Huge difference

 

Summer is nicer in Canada than San Francisco