Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[John_Havok]

In fairness though, you can't count on this formula to work for everyone.

 

Or ever again really. Sure, some individuals might have good years again, but all at the same time on same team... you can never plan on that.

[Abomination]

Aim higher, I'd rather Taylor or Bryant and I'm good.

 

P.S. Just busting your balls.

 

I love Taylor, but he doesn't seem to have the arm for 3rd. He'd look really nice at 2nd.

[L54]

I hate Seager's profile but still think he could be a decent stop gap option on a one year deal. He checks a lot of boxes

 

-Good defender at third

-Hits left handed

-Cheap one year deal

 

The Jays can't sign premium players at every position and there is a glaring need at both 3B and 2B. There are clearly a few hypotheticals to take over at third in the next year or two so signing a guy like Seager or Eduardo Escobar short term makes a lot of sense.

 

Toronto is going to be an attractive destination for hitters either looking for an opportunity to rebound or somewhere to chase a ring. I'd be focused on spending more on pitching and shoring up the offense with cheap short term commitments.

 

Espinal should start the year in AAA. Thats the kind of player good teams are able to call up when injuries occur.

[John_Havok]

I hate Seager's profile but still think he could be a decent stop gap option on a one year deal. He checks a lot of boxes

 

-Good defender at third

-Hits left handed

-Cheap one year deal

 

The Jays can't sign premium players at every position and there is a glaring need at both 3B and 2B. There are clearly a few hypotheticals to take over at third in the next year or two so signing a guy like Seager or Eduardo Escobar short term makes a lot of sense.

 

Toronto is going to be an attractive destination for hitters either looking for an opportunity to rebound or somewhere to chase a ring. I'd be focused on spending more on pitching and shoring up the offense with cheap short term commitments.

 

Espinal should start the year in AAA. Thats the kind of player good teams are able to call up when injuries occur.

 

Espinal has earned his bench spot at minimum. No way he starts in AAA. He's everything you want in a backup IF. It's not even out of the realm of possibility he is in the starting lineup on opening day next season. I wouldn't think that's ideal for chasing a championship, but as a backup IF he's about as perfect as it gets without being a switch hitter.

[L54]

Espinal has earned his bench spot at minimum. No way he starts in AAA. He's everything you want in a backup IF. It's not even out of the realm of possibility he is in the starting lineup on opening day next season. I wouldn't think that's ideal for chasing a championship, but as a backup IF he's about as perfect as it gets without being a switch hitter.

 

Yes he could be but that would be a disappointment

 

Espinal in AAA provides a lot of insurance over the course of 162 games

 

Minor detail at most. Kyle Seager or Eduardo Escobar would be useful additions to the 2022 Blue Jays

[Spanky99]

I love Taylor, but he doesn't seem to have the arm for 3rd. He'd look really nice at 2nd.

 

I wouldn't limit Taylor to one position though, that's what I like about him. He has the arm for 3rd.

[John_Havok]

Yes he could be but that would be a disappointment

 

Espinal in AAA provides a lot of insurance over the course of 162 games

 

Minor detail at most. Kyle Seager or Eduardo Escobar would be useful additions to the 2022 Blue Jays

 

As the backup MIF?

[John_Havok]

I wouldn't limit Taylor to one position though, that's what I like about him. He has the arm for 3rd.

 

He's not real good defensively though. Not like dogshit bad, but you wouldn't be expecting much contribution defensively aside from the positional flexibility.

[Spanky99]

He's not real good defensively though. Not like dogshit bad, but you wouldn't be expecting much contribution defensively aside from the positional flexibility.

 

He's fine as a super-utility player. In saying that, I doubt he's a Jay target, more likely someone like Seager, I'd be happy signing Bryant.

[Jimcanuck]

Doubtful the Jays will splurge on a long term deal for a position player like Bryant or Correa and be hamstrung when it's time to talk extension with Vlad, Bo, etc

 

I would expect short term deals, nothing more than 3 years and mostly for pitching

[saskjayfan]

I hate Seager's profile but still think he could be a decent stop gap option on a one year deal. He checks a lot of boxes

 

-Good defender at third

-Hits left handed

-Cheap one year deal

 

The Jays can't sign premium players at every position and there is a glaring need at both 3B and 2B. There are clearly a few hypotheticals to take over at third in the next year or two so signing a guy like Seager or Eduardo Escobar short term makes a lot of sense.

 

Toronto is going to be an attractive destination for hitters either looking for an opportunity to rebound or somewhere to chase a ring. I'd be focused on spending more on pitching and shoring up the offense with cheap short term commitments.

 

Espinal should start the year in AAA. Thats the kind of player good teams are able to call up when injuries occur.

 

I can't believe the believe the disrespect Espinal gets. Yeah, he has no power, but he is a tough out. He put up 2.2 wins in less than a half a season's worth of at bats. His defense is very good. Even if he did have some luck with the bat, he's still a pretty solid player. A 12% strike out rate. 6.8% swinging strike rate. He still takes his walks at a tick above average rate. I don't view Seager or Escobar as an upgrade on Espinal. Steamer has them both projeced at 1.9 over a full season. 1.3 wins for Espinal over 200 less ABs They aren't an upgrade. Save the money and put it into pitching.

[L54]

It has nothing to do with disrespecting your favourite player and more to do with constructing a team that has depth.

 

Going into the season with Espinal as a starter is a terrible idea.

 

I don’t care if he’s the back up IF. Good chance he is. But nobody can argue that the team wouldn’t be better equipped to handle injuries if he’s the first man up from AAA.

[jerb]

 

Arden Zwelling

@ArdenZwelling

 

Nate Pearson recently underwent a procedure to repair a sports hernia.

 

Pearson will resume throwing following a four-week recovery period; Blue Jays expect him to be ready for the beginning of spring training

 

https://t.co/LiuISPlIX7?amp=1

[Eat My Shatkins]

The Jays should also do a procedure on Pearson where they extract some Alek Manoah blood and inject it into Nate Pearson.

 

With Pearson's stuff, if he was as physically durable and mentally tough as Alek Manoah he'd steam roll MLB.

[Olerud363]

It has nothing to do with disrespecting your favourite player and more to do with constructing a team that has depth.

 

Going into the season with Espinal as a starter is a terrible idea.

 

I donÂ’t care if heÂ’s the back up IF. Good chance he is. But nobody can argue that the team wouldnÂ’t be better equipped to handle injuries if heÂ’s the first man up from AAA.

 

I don't think Espinal should be in aaa, but I think at the end of the off-season, if Grichuk, Biggio and Espinal are still here, they should be the bench.

 

Those guys will still get like 1000 at bats between them. A good offseason will have Semien resigned, or replaced, a good left handed DH/Outfield bat added, and a Taylor/Seager level signing. Then Biggio/Espinal and Grichuk are depth.

[Brownie19]

I don't think Espinal should be in aaa, but I think at the end of the off-season, if Grichuk, Biggio and Espinal are still here, they should be the bench.

 

Those guys will still get like 1000 at bats between them. A good offseason will have Semien resigned, or replaced, a good left handed DH/Outfield bat added, and a Taylor/Seager level signing. Then Biggio/Espinal and Grichuk are depth.

 

You're in for disappointment if you think we're signing Semien, Seager and a good left handed DH/Outfield bat (like Conforto)

[Olerud363]

You're in for disappointment if you think we're signing Semien, Seager and a good left handed DH/Outfield bat (like Conforto)

 

I was under the impression there is room in the payroll for some aggressive signings. Whether those players will come or not is another question.

 

A lot of people's off season proposals seem to be similar, add three players (including Semien or his replacement).

 

The other day I heard something like trade for Chapman, Sign Schwarber and Taylor. Is that unrealistic too?

[Jimcanuck]

I was under the impression there is room in the payroll for some aggressive signings. Whether those players will come or not is another question.

 

A lot of people's off season proposals seem to be similar, add three players (including Semien or his replacement).

 

The other day I heard something like trade for Chapman, Sign Schwarber and Taylor. Is that unrealistic too?

 

Not unrealistic, but I don't understand why the Jays would be focussing on position players. I know WAR can come from anywhere, but as we saw, bad pitching / bullpen is kind of important. Team can build up a 7 run lead, and one f***ing reliever lose it for them.

[max silver]

He also had the highest barrel % of his career and the highest exit velocity, just a suppressed BABIP. Almost everything else was in line with his career numbers except the odd uptick in strikeouts. Basically, it appears he was unlucky. It's not really any different than his 2018 season.

 

Seager's overall numbers don't look to be suppressed by an unexpectedly low BABIP, as his expected stats are all reasonably close with his actual on field results. His XBA of .220 is only slightly higher than his actual of .212. His XWOBA of .318 is only a little higher than the actual of .308, which looks to be a pretty typical spread for his career. As a predominantly left handed pull hitter with poor foot speed it's not surprising that Seager ran a very low BABIP, especially when you factor in the 13.4% IFFB rate.

 

Seager's league average WRC+ is backed up by the worst k rates of his entire career, along with a career high popup rate as well. There are also plenty of other concerning signs, as he swung at a career worst 29.1% of pitches off of the plate, while also suffering from a career worst 29.6% whiff percentage. In 2022 he had success against fastballs only, while struggling against all other pitch types. This coincided with a decrease in the fastballs thrown his way which will continue to be the case in the future unless he can either show the ability to lay off of breaking and off speed pitches or have more success against them. Seager is at the age where it's entirely possible he's starting to suffer from a skill decline, and I don't think he's likely to be an upgrade over what Espinal is able to provide, even when you factor in an expected drop in WRC+ for Espinal compared to what he brought in 2021.

[Brownie19]

I was under the impression there is room in the payroll for some aggressive signings. Whether those players will come or not is another question.

 

A lot of people's off season proposals seem to be similar, add three players (including Semien or his replacement).

 

The other day I heard something like trade for Chapman, Sign Schwarber and Taylor. Is that unrealistic too?

 

Yes - that's A LOT more realistic than Semien, Seager and Conforto/Schwarber

[Brownie19]

Seager's overall numbers don't look to be suppressed by an unexpectedly low BABIP, as his expected stats are all reasonably close with his actual on field results. His XBA of .220 is only slightly higher than his actual of .212. His XWOBA of .318 is only a little higher than the actual of .308, which looks to be a pretty typical spread for his career. As a predominantly left handed pull hitter with poor foot speed it's not surprising that Seager ran a very low BABIP, especially when you factor in the 13.4% IFFB rate.

 

Seager's league average WRC+ is backed up by the worst k rates of his entire career, along with a career high popup rate as well. There are also plenty of other concerning signs, as he swung at a career worst 29.1% of pitches off of the plate, while also suffering from a career worst 29.6% whiff percentage. In 2022 he had success against fastballs only, while struggling against all other pitch types. This coincided with a decrease in the fastballs thrown his way which will continue to be the case in the future unless he can either show the ability to lay off of breaking and off speed pitches or have more success against them. Seager is at the age where it's entirely possible he's starting to suffer from a skill decline, and I don't think he's likely to be an upgrade over what Espinal is able to provide, even when you factor in an expected drop in WRC+ for Espinal compared to what he brought in 2021.

 

I agree with this. It all depends what he costs. At $15M+ I think the risk is too high (40%) that he's a sub 100 wRC+ hitter who can't run....if defense is all he can provide, we already have that guy and he makes peanuts - and can run a lot better.

 

At <$10M I think it's worth a shot as there's still a chance (maybe 50%) he's a 105 to 115 wRC+ hitter with good defense (which likely makes him a 2-4 WAR player)

[max silver]

I agree with this. It all depends what he costs. At $15M+ I think the risk is too high (40%) that he's a sub 100 wRC+ hitter who can't run....if defense is all he can provide, we already have that guy and he makes peanuts - and can run a lot better.

 

At <$10M I think it's worth a shot as there's still a chance (maybe 50%) he's a 105 to 115 wRC+ hitter with good defense (which likely makes him a 2-4 WAR player)

 

A Kyle Seager signing would almost certainly be better than nothing, but I would prefer the front office aim higher in upgrading the infield than Seager. The club is almost certain to be better with him on board rather than without as counting on a full bounceback from Biggio and continued success at the plate from Espinal are each risky propositions, but as you mentioned the cost needs to be low enough to make the signing worthwhile.

[Eat My Shatkins]

If the Jays think they can get a LH outfield bat like Schwarber, Conforto or Rosario, maybe they can use Gurriel as trade bait?

 

Something like Gurriel, Espinal, Van Eyk for Chapman and Manaea or Bassitt maybe?

[Brownie19]

If the Jays think they can get a LH outfield bat like Schwarber, Conforto or Rosario, maybe they can use Gurriel as trade bait?

 

Something like Gurriel, Espinal, Van Eyk for Chapman and Manaea or Bassitt maybe?

 

Yeah I love that idea, although I'm not sure how realistic that trade offer is. Conforto in LF, Chapman at 3rd, Biggio at 2nd and Manaea replaces Matz.

Edited November 4, 2021 by Brownie19

[RustyTrombone]

Lowkey Jays should go after Freeman to play 1st and move Vladdy back to third. Vladdy seems to be taking his conditioning very seriously now and in my eye was capable of playing third.

 

Should go after other first but if you strikeout on Jram/Seager etc then pivoting to Freddie might not be a bad idea. 6/150?

[Eat My Shatkins]

Love Freddie, but 6 years and $25 million per for a 32 year old 1B is not a great idea

 

What do you do if Vladdy can't handle 3B?

[RustyTrombone]

Love Freddie, but 6 years and $25 million per for a 32 year old 1B is not a great idea

 

What do you do if Vladdy can't handle 3B?

 

I think you give him the chance to show he's still horrible there, if he's even just below average like Devers then your ok. But worst case scenario then I guess espinal goes from utility guy to primary 3b and Freddy/Vladdy split 1b/dh which obviously isn't ideal. This scenario hinge on Vladdy sticking at third I suppose.

[Jimcanuck]

One option no one has mentioned is Javier Baez. He'd be a more than capable 3B. Can play all positions except C so if someone emerges at 3B (Moreno), no plm. Edited November 5, 2021 by Jimcanuck

[John_Havok]

It has nothing to do with disrespecting your favourite player and more to do with constructing a team that has depth.

 

Going into the season with Espinal as a starter is a terrible idea.

 

I don’t care if he’s the back up IF. Good chance he is. But nobody can argue that the team wouldn’t be better equipped to handle injuries if he’s the first man up from AAA.

 

Who’s advocating Espinal as a starter? He’s the perfect bench bat backup infielder making league minimum. No reason to stick him in AAA at all unless you just signed a ton of guys and some solid 2-3 WAR IF is lost in the shuffle. The least of the Jays concern is the backup IF role.

[Spanky99]

Y'all f***in' dumb. lol