Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[Abomination]

If you were a pitcher would you take a pillow contract from Toronto to face some of the biggest opposition while pitching half your games at the Dome? Don’t think we’re the first choice for that. If you were a bat you might do it but not a pitcher.

 

The dome can be an advantage too. You don't have to worry about rainouts at home (usually), or cold weather. These could be very important for someone coming off injury. We also have one hell of an offense to support a pitcher.

[saskjayfan]

I just donÂ’t think we are a top choice place to pitch. While Ray may have turned it around here, you donÂ’t hear any sense of gratitude. I would think that might be heard by a few around the league. Also while Ray excelled, there were Brad Hand, Tanner Roark and others. Pete Walker may be a good coach but I donÂ’t know if he changes free agents decisions.

 

 

We could just sign Verlander. He's not looking to build value. He just wants to win. Martinez is a guy that interests me. He could next year's Ray or Matz.

[connorp]

We could just sign Verlander. He's not looking to build value. He just wants to win. Martinez is a guy that interests me. He could next year's Ray or Matz.

 

Win somewhere other than Toronto I’d wager. Once they go south near 40, they ain’t going back

[Brownie19]

I think the QO decision would come before any of those other guys sign though right? Can't wait to watch the market, the decision has to be made independently

 

I hope the Jays start accessing the market well before FA starts...

[max silver]

This is my exact assumption yes. It could be a wrong assumption, or may not produce the same results, but Gray's issue, from the outside, doesn't seem to be stuff.

 

Fixing the below could pay dividends and then some for whomever signs Gray:

 

1. Altitude - get him out of Coors where breaking balls die and FBs go to the moon

2. Pitch Mix - this could be a Pete Walker and Matt Buschman fix

3. Confidence - this is definitely a Pete Walker strength from everything we've read

 

I took a look at Gray's statcast page, and one of the first thing that stands out is that his fastball command appears to be pretty bad. The heatmap for his fastball shows that he leaves too many fastballs middle middle, and the batted ball statistics back this up as well. WOBA against fastballs was a whopping .396 with an XWOBA of .358. I suspect a simple pitch mix tweak could make a difference, as it appears that historically his curveball has been quite effective, garnering swing and miss in the 30% range, whereas his fastball has been his worst pitch results wise. Perhaps dialing back the fastball usage a bit in favor of more curveballs could work in his favor. In 2021 he threw more sliders and less fastballs and accordingly had better results.

[THANOS]

Yeah I would love to get Gray on a 1 year deal, but he hasn't been so bad that there wouldn't be teams out there likely willing to give him more than 1. Like, he's not a disaster that someone needs to fix in order to be viable in the rotation, he's got the stuff and just needs a tweak or two to get him to where everyone thinks he should be.

 

Honestly, I'd be okay with the Jays offering a multi-year deal with a club option. Maybe 2+1 in the 20 million range, some performance bonuses and the option would be for 12 with a 2 million buyout or something.

 

I'm on board with this. Let's hope our FO feels the same way.

[THANOS]

I took a look at Gray's statcast page, and one of the first thing that stands out is that his fastball command appears to be pretty bad. The heatmap for his fastball shows that he leaves too many fastballs middle middle, and the batted ball statistics back this up as well. WOBA against fastballs was a whopping .396 with an XWOBA of .358. I suspect a simple pitch mix tweak could make a difference, as it appears that historically his curveball has been quite effective, garnering swing and miss in the 30% range, whereas his fastball has been his worst pitch results wise. Perhaps dialing back the fastball usage a bit in favor of more curveballs could work in his favor. In 2021 he threw more sliders and less fastballs and accordingly had better results.

 

I agree. Sounds like Pitch Mix or even delivery? Ray used to do the same thing. Gray is ahead of where Ray was at though and has more pitches in his bag.

 

Like you suggested, maybe increasing CB/SL usage and decreasing FB usage will make the latter play up. I would also suggest seeing if he can toss it in the upper 3rd of the zone to try and miss bats with it there.

[Omar]

This is kind of weird. Not sure what specific protocol he is referring to....

 

[saskjayfan]

Win somewhere other than Toronto I’d wager. Once they go south near 40, they ain’t going back

 

The thing about Verlander is he's not trying to bounce back. The last time he pitched a full season he won the Cy young..lol. He now hasn't pitched 2 years because of injury/covid. At 39 what does that cost you and what kind of pitcher can he be? I think he's a fascinating name for the off season. I'll be curious as to what kind of contract he commands and where he goes. I'd gamble on him, but I always like the high risk high reward guys and I'm often wrong..lol.

[connorp]

The thing about Verlander is he's not trying to bounce back. The last time he pitched a full season he won the Cy young..lol. He now hasn't pitched 2 years because of injury/covid. At 39 what does that cost you and what kind of pitcher can he be? I think he's a fascinating name for the off season. I'll be curious as to what kind of contract he commands and where he goes. I'd gamble on him, but I always like the high risk high reward guys and I'm often wrong..lol.

 

I meant once they go geographically south, in case that wasn’t clear (which I’m sure it wasn’t)

[The_DH]

This is kind of weird. Not sure what specific protocol he is referring to....

 

 

It kind of says in the tweet. He coached Teoscar and Vladdy over the past two years and Gurriel over the last because they were drowning. He obviously didn’t do it under official channels. Our hitting coach seems invisible.

[Deadpool]

I just don’t think we are a top choice place to pitch. While Ray may have turned it around here, you don’t hear any sense of gratitude. I would think that might be heard by a few around the league. Also while Ray excelled, there were Brad Hand, Tanner Roark and others. Pete Walker may be a good coach but I don’t know if he changes free agents decisions.

 

I mean, he had Brad Hand for like 3 weeks, and Roark was in worse shape than I am, so "self improvement" may not have been something he focused on all that much. Coaching plans typically need to be tailored to a player, and the player has to actually buy in to the plan.

 

In my completely unscientific opinion, Walker's had a lot more successes than failures.

 

Also, I give Matz the QO and use that as leverage towards a multi-year deal with a lower AAV.

[The_DH]

True I agree the player has to buy in and I totally agree that Walker has had more successes than failures. Roark’s condition may have been bad (which makes me wonder why we signed him anyway) but then I remember Fernando Valenzuela. I still think if I’m a pitcher trying to rebuild after a bad season or two then I don’t go to the AL East. If I’m a batter then I definitely consider it.

[saskjayfan]

I mean, he had Brad Hand for like 3 weeks, and Roark was in worse shape than I am, so "self improvement" may not have been something he focused on all that much. Coaching plans typically need to be tailored to a player, and the player has to actually buy in to the plan.

 

In my completely unscientific opinion, Walker's had a lot more successes than failures.

 

Also, I give Matz the QO and use that as leverage towards a multi-year deal with a lower AAV.

 

You offer 3 and 30. That's what he's worth. If you offer him 18.4 he'll take it in a heart beat.

[John_Havok]

You offer 3 and 30. That's what he's worth. If you offer him 18.4 he'll take it in a heart beat.

 

Well the Jays are going to make their decision based on more factors other than just what Matz is worth. They'll be having conversations with his agent to try and find out what Matz is leaning towards doing. If they get the feeling that he is really leaning towards testing the free agent market because he and his agent feel like his value is at it's greatest right now, then it's a pretty easy decision to start with the 1 qualifying offer to ensure that if he doesn't sign here, the Jays will get a compensatory draft pick back. That comp pick has a pretty good chunk of value attached to it on it's own.

 

Second, offering the QO doesn't eliminate the chances of also offering a multiyear deal later if his market isn't what he thought it was. But at that point, maybe Matz and his agent feel like 1 year at 18.4, would be better than 2 at 23 or 2 at 24 + an option. It that happens, sure, it's an AAV overpay, but it's only a 1 year deal with almost 0 downside. Signing him at 1 year 18.4 vs 2 at 24 is a 6 million difference in AAV but only for 1 year, so its not like that 6 million is going to hamstring them for years to come.

 

The QO is just the Jays safety net to get the comp pick if he goes elsewhere. That pick isn't just about getting a pick either, it makes the Jays signing bonus pool go up which gives more flexibility to go over slot on guys they want to go over slot on without penalty. There's lots of potential value in getting additional comp picks when you can get them aside from just getting another minor league player.

[Eat My Shatkins]

You definitely give Matz the QO. It's a no brainer in my opinion.

 

Worst case scenario would be you get Matz for 1 more year at $18 million. While he's not worth that much for one year, it's only one year and as of right now the Jays are thin on starting pitching.

 

I'd rather the Jays risk paying him $6-8 million more than he's worth for one year than risk losing him with no compensation pick awarded.

[Olerud363]

It kind of says in the tweet. He coached Teoscar and Vladdy over the past two years and Gurriel over the last because they were drowning. He obviously didn’t do it under official channels. Our hitting coach seems invisible.

 

This seems really weird. Why did Barfield bring it up? The team didn't. Why not just keep it quiet? Was something else going to break and Barfield is being pre-emptive? Almost seems like a humble brag, like a way of getting credit for helping them.

[Dick_Pole]

This is kind of weird. Not sure what specific protocol he is referring to....

 

 

Sounds like a dude who is in desperate need of some recognition. He did something covertly - breaking protocol - then randomly spilled the beans all over Twitter how he personally saved the careers of the team's best hitters. This is not a good look on Barfield imo.

[Dick_Pole]

Matz QO is low hanging fruit. I'm 50/50 on it but you do it to fill up roster spots with back end innings eaters rather than go into FA with only three definitive options for SP.

[Dick_Pole]

What I find kind of weird reading this thread is that in other posters' fantasy SP scenarios they have Manoah ranked #3-#5. Pretty sure he's the team's best pitcher right now or sharing a spot with Berrios as 1/2. I trust Manoah to put up a better 2022 season than one-year deals coming off of injury that's for sure.

[Jimcanuck]

You offer 3 and 30. That's what he's worth. If you offer him 18.4 he'll take it in a heart beat.

 

That market valuation may or may not be accurate, I think it's a fair bit lower than what he would get.

 

3/30 is essentially the equivalent of 2/25 or 1/16, roughly. Not a big gap remains to the QO and see Havok's post above.

 

The decision could go either way, and either is justifiable. For various reasons other than purely monetary, I think they offer the QO.

[connorp]

This seems really weird. Why did Barfield bring it up? The team didn't. Why not just keep it quiet? Was something else going to break and Barfield is being pre-emptive? Almost seems like a humble brag, like a way of getting credit for helping them.

 

My best guess would be someone in the org had a discussion with him about stepping out of place, obviously that’s the hitting coaches job… looks like Barfield took it the wrong way and decided to make it public…prob in hopes he could land some role somewhere else (even though he says he’s not looking), or for Shapiro and higher Jays brass come to his defense.

 

Kind of a bitch move either way but that’s prob what happened

[Spanky99]

When do QO's start, is their a date yet? I'm thinking it's somewhere near the first week of November right, I can't seem to find it?

 

ETA: Also, offer was 18.9M last year, surely it's gone up?

Edited October 23, 2021 by Spanky99

[The_DH]

My best guess would be someone in the org had a discussion with him about stepping out of place, obviously that’s the hitting coaches job… looks like Barfield took it the wrong way and decided to make it public…prob in hopes he could land some role somewhere else (even though he says he’s not looking), or for Shapiro and higher Jays brass come to his defense.

 

Kind of a bitch move either way but that’s prob what happened

 

I think Barfield was explaining why he was no longer an alumni ambassador.

[connorp]

I think Barfield was explaining why he was no longer an alumni ambassador.

 

Well yeah, prob was intended to a discussion about overstepping and it got ugly. Team wouldn’t make something like that public but Barfield was sour grapes and did. Best guess of course

[Jimcanuck]

Well yeah, prob was intended to a discussion about overstepping and it got ugly. Team wouldn’t make something like that public but Barfield was sour grapes and did. Best guess of course

 

It's a non-story, no one should care.

[connorp]

It's a non-story, no one should care.

 

It’s the off-season, it’s either that or debating when using the word slut is appropriate

[Jimcanuck]

It’s the off-season, it’s either that or debating when using the word slut is appropriate

 

FYI, offseason starts when the world series ends.

[connorp]

FYI, offseason starts when the world series ends.

 

Blah. It started after that bs 9th inning in NY

[Krylian]

It’s the off-season, it’s either that or debating when using the word slut is appropriate

 

Any word can be used at any time. Context and timing though.