Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[max silver]

Nah, you can easily run a 6-man rotation and keep all three of Manoah, Ryu and Berrios in the rotation. Given the injury concerns, Manoah's lack of experience in a full season and Ryu wearing down by the end of the 2021 season, a 6-man rotation would be a really good idea in 2022 to get everyone back to their innings thresholds.

 

If you really want to go with a 5-man rotation, I'd just try to offload Ryu in a trade or maybe stretch him out as a long man until one of Syndergaard or Verlander go down with an injury.

 

I guess upon further reflection I certainly have other concerns. My other concerns with this plan also include the uncertainty of sustained performance from Scherzer and the crazy amount of money that would be tied up in the starting rotation, particularly with several pitchers who are aging with potential to decline very quickly. Scherzer has a good chance to be great for several more seasons, but at his age I wouldn't at all surprised to see him hit a wall very quickly and find himself out of MLB in short order.

 

Would this leave any money for upgrades to the rest of the roster? Would there be any money left over to improve the bullpen or resign Semien or find a suitable replacement? I would honestly rather the club simply resign Ray and offer a qualifying offer to Matz, the rotation from 2021 was a real strength of the club as it was constructed towards the end of the season, I see no need to do something so drastic in signing three guys with as many question marks as your proposed trio presents. Ray and Matz are no sure things but should come with fewer concerns than bringing in two Tommy John recipients who would potentially each only be good for 100 or so innings a piece.

[BigCecil]

If you moved Lordes for Ramirez and sign Conforto to replace him - that would be sweet. You have to expect Conforto wants a pillow deal, but landing him for 2-3 years through his age 29-31 seasons would probably be very successful.

 

Hope for LHH conforto bounce back. For all of Lourdes solid 2/3 of the season he still blows in the OF and was worth only 1.5 WAR. Great for 3mm aav but not that great.

[mom2mom]

Interesting that supposedly the FO looked into Ramirez and Grossman… wonder how big of the prospects were asked??…

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/blue-jays-tried-to-acquire-jose-ramirez-robbie-grossman-at-deadline.html

[Spanky99]

Interesting that supposedly the FO looked into Ramirez and Grossman… wonder how big of the prospects were asked??…

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/blue-jays-tried-to-acquire-jose-ramirez-robbie-grossman-at-deadline.html

 

Posted above.

[connorp]

Posted above.

 

Above this post is the Top page of the board and paid advertisement

[Spanky99]

I still haven't heard of Ramirez or JD on the market by either organization, I'm assuming all this talk is just conjecture at this point, right? Or did I miss some big news along the line?

[Spanky99]

Above this post is the Top page of the board and paid advertisement

 

Not for me on either, just helping out ********.

[connorp]

Not for me on either, just helping out ********.

 

Ah. I forgot most aren’t always on a cell like me. Carry on

[Spanky99]

Ah. I forgot most aren’t always on a cell like me. Carry on

 

You can't change settings on a cell phone?

[connorp]

You can't change settings on a cell phone?

 

You can but I dont…mobile version reads better

[TwistedLogic]

I guess upon further reflection I certainly have other concerns. My other concerns with this plan also include the uncertainty of sustained performance from Scherzer and the crazy amount of money that would be tied up in the starting rotation, particularly with several pitchers who are aging with potential to decline very quickly. Scherzer has a good chance to be great for several more seasons, but at his age I wouldn't at all surprised to see him hit a wall very quickly and find himself out of MLB in short order.

 

Would this leave any money for upgrades to the rest of the roster? Would there be any money left over to improve the bullpen or resign Semien or find a suitable replacement? I would honestly rather the club simply resign Ray and offer a qualifying offer to Matz, the rotation from 2021 was a real strength of the club as it was constructed towards the end of the season, I see no need to do something so drastic in signing three guys with as many question marks as your proposed trio presents. Ray and Matz are no sure things but should come with fewer concerns than bringing in two Tommy John recipients who would potentially each only be good for 100 or so innings a piece.

 

Aging/potential to decline is irrelevant on one-year deals. And when it comes to Scherzer, I can't see him becoming a pumpkin within the next 2-3 years given how good he still is, but that's a risk you can take on a player like him.

 

The question I posed about those three starters was purely hypothetical and in actuality, I only want them to pursue Scherzer and Syndergaard. And yes, the Blue Jays could easily afford two frontline starters from the FA crop and still have plenty left over to fill out the rest of the roster. This team has very few holes and the current roster as it stands (if you can get rid of Grichuk) is only projected to be at around $115M based on my very rough arbitration estimates.

 

[InsideThePark]

Aging/potential to decline is irrelevant on one-year deals. And when it comes to Scherzer, I can't see him becoming a pumpkin within the next 2-3 years given how good he still is, but that's a risk you can take on a player like him.

 

The question I posed about those three starters was purely hypothetical and in actuality, I only want them to pursue Scherzer and Syndergaard. And yes, the Blue Jays could easily afford two frontline starters from the FA crop and still have plenty left over to fill out the rest of the roster. This team has very few holes and the current roster as it stands (if you can get rid of Grichuk) is only projected to be at around $115M based on my very rough arbitration estimates.

 

 

You have Vladdy getting 15 million? Donaldson only got 4.3 million(and was only asking for 5.7 million) after consecutive seasons of 7.3 and 5.7 fWAR before being traded to Toronto for his 1st arbitration year. I get that Josh isn't the only comparison out there, but Bellinger has the record at 11.5 after a season of 7.7 fWAR(Boy did he fall off a cliff). I don't see how Vladdy gets 15

[TwistedLogic]

I purposely overshot my projections to give ample room but there is no way Vladdy won't break the record. I think he'll come in at like 12M.

 

Arb is based on traditional counting stats, not advanced stats. Vladdy was king of t-stats this year.

[TwistedLogic]

Here's a sample roster I came up with after a big offseason for the Blue Jays:

 

 

• Trade Cavan Biggio, Orelvis Martinez, Nate Pearson and a low minors lottery ticket to Cleveland for Jose Ramirez.
  
• Sign Max Scherzer for $90M over 3 years.
  
• Sign Starling Marte for $54M over 3 years.
  
• Sign Noah Syndergaard for $20M over 1 year.
  
• Re-sign Kirby Yates for $3M over 1 year.
  
• Dump Randal Grichuk on anyone who will take him and give up a decent mid-minors piece in the deal if that's what it takes.
  
• I used Jordan Groshans as a placeholder 2B. This can be Otto Lopez, Samad Taylor, whoever rises in Spring Training.
  
• I tuned back some of the arb estimates (Vladdy at 13M, Teoscar at 9M and Stripling at 4M). I still think I'm overshooting a bit and they can probably get the overall arb crop in for less than I've allocated.
  

 

Rationale:

 

Jose Ramirez is a perennial MVP candidate on a very low price tag and a trade for him is self-explanatory. I lose my starting 2B in this scenario but the Blue Jays have a ton of infield depth with Samad Taylor, Otto Lopez and maybe even Gabriel Moreno, all of whom have experience at AA and can win a starting roster spot right out of spring training. With the lineup I've assembled above, the Blue Jays have an All-Star caliber player at every single other position in the lineup and could even afford to go to a defense-first option here.

 

Max Scherzer is one of the few players I would take a high-priced gamble on even at such a late stage in his career. The pedigree is there and so is the recent performance. Noah Syndergaard will likely have a competitive market but I think around $20M for a one-year "prove it" contract like the Semien deal can work here.

 

Starling Marte is going to be the most underrated position player on the market. This is a massive defensive upgrade for a team that needs one and he also happens to be an elite position player throughout his career with a massive run over the last four years. This move makes sense for a number of reasons: Marte is 32 years old so it won't require a long-term deal, he was traded mid-season so he won't have a QO, the team he's currently playing for is cheap and can't afford him and the Blue Jays have one of the most popular clubhouses in the league among Latin players. Furthermore, this move pushes Springer to one of the wings and outfield is a position of need for the Blue Jays, where they have no minor league depth. While the market wrestles over Castellanos, Conforto and Schwarber, the Blue Jays need to swoop in and lock this up as soon as possible.

 

Signing Marte and retaining Gurriel also gives me four potentially premium offensive outfielders on the team. This means I can afford an injury to one of my top guys and still have all three OF spots covered, while I can rotate the fourth guy through the DH or 1B spot when everyone is healthy. I think Gurriel showed some improved instincts on flyball reads and he has one of the best arms in the major leagues so I'm going with Teoscar at DH to start off the season.

 

I want to re-sign Kirby Yates for a 3M deal that I'm hoping he signs out of good faith after giving me nothing in 2021. If he can be anywhere near the guy he's usually been, this is a potential x-factor out of the bullpen. I start the season with Romano as the closer and a core of Merryweather, Mayza, Cimber, Richards and Borucki is exceptional. I keep Stripling on board as the long-man and the guy who can come in as a long-term spot starter if one of the other arms goes down for an extended period of time.

 

While the salary is high, I am of the firm belief that my roster above has no holes anywhere, would be a heavy World Series favorite heading into the season and would be in contention for the greatest offense in baseball history. I've also kept all of the high-cost contracts on short terms so as the young core becomes more expensive, large chunks of the tied-up money are freed up each year. If I can find a way to dump Ryu this offseason, I take that chance immediately and find a stopgap cheap SP option in his place, since the market is loaded with arms.

Edited October 8, 2021 by TwistedLogic

[Spanky99]

Wow!

[John_Havok]

Here's a sample roster I came up with after a big offseason for the Blue Jays:

 

 

• Trade Cavan Biggio, Orelvis Martinez, Nate Pearson and a low minors lottery ticket to Cleveland for Jose Ramirez.
  
• Sign Max Scherzer for $90M over 3 years.
  
• Sign Starling Marte for $54M over 3 years.
  
• Sign Noah Syndergaard for $20M over 1 year.
  
• Re-sign Kirby Yates for $3M over 1 year.
  
• Dump Randal Grichuk on anyone who will take him and give up a decent mid-minors piece in the deal if that's what it takes.
  
• I used Jordan Groshans as a placeholder 2B. This can be Otto Lopez, Samad Taylor, whoever rises in Spring Training.
  
• I tuned back some of the arb estimates (Vladdy at 13M, Teoscar at 9M and Stripling at 4M). I still think I'm overshooting a bit and they can probably get the overall arb crop in for less than I've allocated.
  

 

Rationale:

 

Jose Ramirez is a perennial MVP candidate on a very low price tag and a trade for him is self-explanatory. I lose my starting 2B in this scenario but the Blue Jays have a ton of infield depth with Samad Taylor, Otto Lopez and maybe even Gabriel Moreno, all of whom have experience at AA and can win a starting roster spot right out of spring training. With the lineup I've assembled above, the Blue Jays have an All-Star caliber player at every single other position in the lineup and could even afford to go to a defense-first option here.

 

Max Scherzer is one of the few players I would take a high-priced gamble on even at such a late stage in his career. The pedigree is there and so is the recent performance. Noah Syndergaard will likely have a competitive market but I think around $20M for a one-year "prove it" contract like the Semien deal can work here.

 

Starling Marte is going to be the most underrated position player on the market. This is a massive defensive upgrade for a team that needs one and he also happens to be an elite position player throughout his career with a massive run over the last four years. This move makes sense for a number of reasons: Marte is 32 years old so it won't require a long-term deal, he was traded mid-season so he won't have a QO, the team he's currently playing for is cheap and can't afford him and the Blue Jays have one of the most popular clubhouses in the league among Latin players. Furthermore, this move pushes Springer to one of the wings and outfield is a position of need for the Blue Jays, where they have no minor league depth. While the market wrestles over Castellanos, Conforto and Schwarber, the Blue Jays need to swoop in and lock this up as soon as possible.

 

Signing Marte and retaining Gurriel also gives me four potentially premium offensive outfielders on the team. This means I can afford an injury to one of my top guys and still have all three OF spots covered, while I can rotate the fourth guy through the DH or 1B spot when everyone is healthy. I think Gurriel showed some improved instincts on flyball reads and he has one of the best arms in the major leagues so I'm going with Teoscar at DH to start off the season.

 

I want to re-sign Kirby Yates for a 3M deal that I'm hoping he signs out of good faith after giving me nothing in 2021. If he can be anywhere near the guy he's usually been, this is a potential x-factor out of the bullpen. I start the season with Romano as the closer and a core of Merryweather, Mayza, Cimber, Richards and Borucki is exceptional. I keep Stripling on board as the long-man and the guy who can come in as a long-term spot starter if one of the other arms goes down for an extended period of time.

 

While the salary is high, I am of the firm belief that my roster above has no holes anywhere, would be a heavy World Series favorite heading into the season and would be in contention for the greatest offense in baseball history. I've also kept all of the high-cost contracts on short terms so as the young core becomes more expensive, large chunks of the tied-up money are freed up each year. If I can find a way to dump Ryu this offseason, I take that chance immediately and find a stopgap cheap SP option in his place, since the market is loaded with arms.

 

You've done some fine leg work here, but Im wondering why our bench is steaming pile of slap hitting junk? I like the defensive utility, but I'd like to see some thump on the bench as well. Maybe tweak your plan to include some power on the bench and see how it looks. Also, not a fan of your 2b situation. That would likely need some more thought as well.

 

Also, who are the depth starters when injury strikes?

[TwistedLogic]

You've done some fine leg work here, but Im wondering why our bench is steaming pile of slap hitting junk? I like the defensive utility, but I'd like to see some thump on the bench as well. Maybe tweak your plan to include some power on the bench and see how it looks. Also, not a fan of your 2b situation. That would likely need some more thought as well.

 

Also, who are the depth starters when injury strikes?

 

I didn't pay any attention to bench and depth starters for this exercise just so it didn't get too exhaustive but there are a ton of excellent depth starters on the market that would cost peanuts.

[BigCecil]

I still haven't heard of Ramirez or JD on the market by either organization, I'm assuming all this talk is just conjecture at this point, right? Or did I miss some big news along the line?

 

Total conjecture. But then again lots of deals are done nobody hears about before hand. Didn’t know we were getting JD in advance for Lawrie and change.

[TwistedLogic]

Would people here trade Alejandro Kirk straight up for Emmanuel Clase?

[Spanky99]

Would people here trade Alejandro Kirk straight up for Emmanuel Clase?

 

Yes, in a New York Minute!

[King]

Would people here trade Alejandro Kirk straight up for Emmanuel Clase?

f*** no.

[John_Havok]

f*** no.

 

I’d love to land Clase, but yeah…not straight up for Kirk.

 

Kirk, Orelvis plus another legit asset or assets for Ramirez and Clase….yup.

[Abomination]

Would people here trade Alejandro Kirk straight up for Emmanuel Clase?

 

Probably not, but those guys as main components maybe.

[Spanky99]

Total conjecture. But then again lots of deals are done nobody hears about before hand. Didn’t know we were getting JD in advance for Lawrie and change.

 

Thanks, and yes for sure big deals happen out of the blue, I was just wondering if I'd missed something, hah.

[Ehjays]

I didn't pay any attention to bench and depth starters for this exercise just so it didn't get too exhaustive but there are a ton of excellent depth starters on the market that would cost peanuts.

 

I like your ideas but I dont see Marte anywhere near 18 million....Im thinking a lot higher like 24 or 25 million. If in fact he is willing to do 18 Id be all over that.

[Brownie19]

What about trading Lourdes, Kirk and Groshans for Jose Ramirez.

 

Sign Conforto - 1 yr $14M

Sign Marte - 3 yr $54M

Biggio plays 2nd base

[Stangstag]

What about trading Lourdes, Kirk and Groshans for Jose Ramirez.

 

Sign Conforto - 1 yr $14M

Sign Marte - 3 yr $54M

Biggio plays 2nd base

 

I’d make that trade in a heartbeat, but I don’t think Cleveland would.

 

I like Conforto on a 1 year deal. Marte will get more than 3 years for sure.

[Jays24]

My only issue with all these Jose trade talks is that we need some cheap controllable assets if we have any hopes to sustain our run. That was the whole point of our massive rebuild. Gotta be able to plug in cheap guys to compliment the core.

 

We're probably gonna be near our max budget by the start of next offseason and that's not even counting the massive Vladdy/Bo/Teo/Berrios deals we'll have to dish out by the end of next year.

[TwistedLogic]

I like your ideas but I dont see Marte anywhere near 18 million....Im thinking a lot higher like 24 or 25 million. If in fact he is willing to do 18 Id be all over that.

 

I’d make that trade in a heartbeat, but I don’t think Cleveland would.

 

I like Conforto on a 1 year deal. Marte will get more than 3 years for sure.

 

Marte is 33 years old. I think you guys are overestimating how much he makes given how much competition exists on the market this year.

 

That said, I'd easily go to 25M AAV on Marte on a short term deal (3 years). He's one of the few elite, available bats that fits a Blue Jays need and is also a huge defensive upgrade.

[Stangstag]

Marte is 33 years old. I think you guys are overestimating how much he makes given how much competition exists on the market this year.

 

That said, I'd easily go to 25M AAV on Marte on a short term deal (3 years). He's one of the few elite, available bats that fits a Blue Jays need and is also a huge defensive upgrade.

 

Marte in CF/RF and Biggio at 2nd would be a great way to replace Semien’s contributions. Would also mean we would have a legit 2nd CF and could punt Grichuk. Sign Dickerson back and have a pretty nice bench with Dickerson/Gurriel, Espinal/Biggio, Kirk/Jansen...

 

Still need to solve 3B though