The Jays can only afford 8-10 more losses in 2021 | Basic schedule analysis update

[TwistedLogic]

One win down.

Two wins down.

 

21-8.

[TwistedLogic]

One win down.

 

Two wins down.

 

21-8.

 

Three wins down.

 

20-8.

[Abomination]

Three wins down.

 

20-8.

 

 

Maybe more importantly, 5.5 back of the Yankees with a bunch of games left against them.

[G-Snarls]

Well they aren't losing any ATM

[John_Havok]

Well they aren't losing any ATM

 

True. But they’ve also gone 7-3 n their last 10 and made up exactly….0 games.

[Eat My Shatkins]

If the Jays hadn't lost that game against Baltimore, they would be 8-2 in their last 10, on a 7 game winning streak......and they'd still be 4 games out of the 2nd WC spot.

 

It's going to take a near miracle to make it in. Going to have to go 6-1 or 7-0 against the Yankees and not s*** the bed against Minnesota and Baltimore....and then there is the 6 game against the f***ing Rays to deal with.

[InvincibleTiger]

Have to go 5-2 vs Yankees and at least split the 6 with Rays. Long shot, but we will see.

[gruber92]

We have 14 games left vs Baltimore and Minnesota, 13 vs the Yankees and Tampa and today's game vs Oakland.

 

You'd like to think we can win all 14 games vs Baltimore and Minnesota, which is entirely possible, but let's say we go 12-2. If we then go 8-6 vs the Yankees, Tampa and the one left with Oakland, that gets us to 90 wins. That will hopefully be enough to grab the last WC spot.

 

Let's win today's game so we only have to go 7-6 vs the Yankees and Tampa.

[Olerud363]

True. But they’ve also gone 7-3 n their last 10 and made up exactly….0 games.

 

They've gained 2 games against the Yankees and 3 against the As that helps.

[Spanky99]

We have 14 games left vs Baltimore and Minnesota, 13 vs the Yankees and Tampa and today's game vs Oakland.

 

You'd like to think we can win all 14 games vs Baltimore and Minnesota, which is entirely possible, but let's say we go 12-2. If we then go 8-6 vs the Yankees, Tampa and the one left with Oakland, that gets us to 90 wins. That will hopefully be enough to grab the last WC spot.

 

Let's win today's game so we only have to go 7-6 vs the Yankees and Tampa.

 

A W's as good as the next, Bud. Today's is bigger! Make up 3 games or 1.

[Laika]

We have 14 games left vs Baltimore and Minnesota, 13 vs the Yankees and Tampa and today's game vs Oakland.

 

You'd like to think we can win all 14 games vs Baltimore and Minnesota, which is entirely possible, but let's say we go 12-2. If we then go 8-6 vs the Yankees, Tampa and the one left with Oakland, that gets us to 90 wins. That will hopefully be enough to grab the last WC spot.

 

Let's win today's game so we only have to go 7-6 vs the Yankees and Tampa.

 

12-2 is greedy even against bad teams.

 

No matter what, Toronto has to go bananas. The easiest way to do it is probably to destroy the Yankees and Tampa... I mean that's the hard path in terms of baseball but easier to make the math work

[Spanky99]

12-2 is greedy even against bad teams.

 

No matter what, Toronto has to go bananas. The easiest way to do it is probably to destroy the Yankees and Tampa... I mean that's the hard path in terms of baseball but easier to make the math work

 

Said it earlier, these 7 game's are the biggest set this series of games are all year, 2-0 is a start.

[InvincibleTiger]

Why does gruber think 90 wins is enough to snag a WC spot? Red Sox and Yankees already have 78/79 wins.

[glory]

90 wins probably won't be enough. I agree that the only realistic way to make it, or at least greatly improve the odds, is to play better than expected against the Rays and Yankees (and obviously sweeping the A's today) while also doing what they're supposed to do against the O's and Twins. I think 92 or 93 wins at minimum is required as expecting 3 or 4 teams (BOS, NYY, OAK, SEA) to tank simultaneously is asking a lot. So 20-8 the rest of the way might give them a fighting chance, but they probably need to go something like 22-6 or 21-7. The margin for error is basically none.

[thatoneguy]

All of those bullpen debacles basically ran them out of the playoffs. Such a pain in the ass.

[Jimcanuck]

All of those bullpen debacles basically ran them out of the playoffs. Such a pain in the ass.

 

Dumtoyo and the bullpen, and I'm not sure which cost more games.

[thatoneguy]

Dumbtoyo makes bad decisions and should be fired, but man it seems like everyone that they have brought in that isn't Cimber, Richards, Mayza, or Romano has been an absolute dumpster fire. Hence the steady stream of DFAs.

[gruber92]

Why does gruber think 90 wins is enough to snag a WC spot? Red Sox and Yankees already have 78/79 wins.

 

Boston has a really hard schedule until their last 6 games

[saskjayfan]

Three wins down.

 

20-8.

 

4 wins down.

 

19 - 8

[TwistedLogic]

One win down.

 

Two wins down.

 

21-8.

Three wins down.

 

20-8.

 

Four wins down.

 

19-8.

[Dick_Pole]

If we are going with 92-70 as the benchmark, the teams have to have the following records and win percentages:

 

Jays 19-8 .704

Red Sox 13-10 .565

Yankees 14-12 .538

A's 18-7 .720

Mariners 17-8 .680

 

Now what the original analysis doesn't consider is that these teams face each other quite a few times. For instance, the Athletics and Mariners face each other seven times. Given that they both have to win two-thirds of their games, this is going to be deadly for one or both teams. Either one completely dominates the match up and basically eliminates the other from contention, or they both hurt each other's chances. A 5-2 record merely puts one team in line with the win percentage they need. But a 2-5 record eats up nearly all of the loss allocation. The Jays won't have to worry about both of these teams. They'll only have to worry about one, or none.

 

These are the games left between these teams:

A's/M's - 7 games

BOS/NYY - 3 games

Bos/M's - 3 games

 

If you assume every team splits those games:

 

Red Sox 3-3

Yankees 1.5-1.5

A's 3.5-3.5

Mariners 5-5

 

Subtract that out from the records needed to get to 92 wins and you get these records in the remaining games:

 

Red Sox 10-7 .588

Yankees 12.5-10.5 .543

A's 14.5-3.5 .806

Mariners 12-3 .800

 

In this context it looks way better for the Jays. Only the Yankees and Red Sox are the ones to worry about. Someone in Boston could be doing the same calculation for the Jays/Yankees games and really be salivating. But from our perspective, the Jays need to dominate those games so that analysis would be irrelevant.

[Grant77]

If we are going with 92-70 as the benchmark, the teams have to have the following records and win percentages:

 

Jays 19-8 .704

Red Sox 13-10 .565

Yankees 14-12 .538

A's 18-7 .720

Mariners 17-8 .680

 

Now what the original analysis doesn't consider is that these teams face each other quite a few times. For instance, the Athletics and Mariners face each other seven times. Given that they both have to win two-thirds of their games, this is going to be deadly for one or both teams. Either one completely dominates the match up and basically eliminates the other from contention, or they both hurt each other's chances. A 5-2 record merely puts one team in line with the win percentage they need. But a 2-5 record eats up nearly all of the loss allocation. The Jays won't have to worry about both of these teams. They'll only have to worry about one, or none.

 

These are the games left between these teams:

A's/M's - 7 games

BOS/NYY - 3 games

Bos/M's - 3 games

 

If you assume every team splits those games:

 

Red Sox 3-3

Yankees 1.5-1.5

A's 3.5-3.5

Mariners 5-5

 

Subtract that out from the records needed to get to 92 wins and you get these records in the remaining games:

 

Red Sox 10-7 .588

Yankees 12.5-10.5 .543

A's 14.5-3.5 .806

Mariners 12-3 .800

 

In this context it looks way better for the Jays. Only the Yankees and Red Sox are the ones to worry about. Someone in Boston could be doing the same calculation for the Jays/Yankees games and really be salivating. But from our perspective, the Jays need to dominate those games so that analysis would be irrelevant.

 

Oakland was always the team to worry about in my mind. They are infinitely better than Seattle and Boston, who are sub .500 teams masquerading as contenders. This series was so huge. We're only 2 games back of a playoff spot in the loss column with a lot of wins coming against Baltimore.

[InvincibleTiger]

I think I'd take a 5-3 roadtrip through NY and BAL as lomg as we keep the homecooking going.

[TwistedLogic]

One win down.

 

Two wins down.

 

21-8.

Three wins down.

 

20-8.

Four wins down.

 

19-8.

 

Five wins down.

 

18-8.

[harvey16]

What Jays need to do going forward to make WC, still have a legit shot at 1st WC spot.

 

Take 3 of 4 @ Yanks

Take 3 of 4 @ Os

Take 2 of 3 vs Rays

Take 3 of 3 vs Twins

Take 1 of 3 @ Rays

Take 3 of 4 @ Twins

Take 2 of 3 vs Yanks

Take 3 of 3 vs Os

 

20-7 record

 

This would give us 94 wins and likely the 1st WC spot and a home game. I honestly think this is very plausible. We could even afford another loss or 2 and still make a WC spot.

[Spanky99]

lol

[Omar]

Bottom line.....win every series.

[max silver]

Oakland was always the team to worry about in my mind. They are infinitely better than Seattle and Boston, who are sub .500 teams masquerading as contenders. This series was so huge. We're only 2 games back of a playoff spot in the loss column with a lot of wins coming against Baltimore.

 

You are making yourself looking like a fool with this Boston Red Sox hate. This is a team with a +58 run differential. They have scored the third most runs in baseball (2 spots above the Jays) and they have a middle of the road pitching staff (6 spots below the Jays in ERA). That is hardly the makings of a sub .500 baseball team.

[InvincibleTiger]

For 93 wins, matching our total from 2015, we have to go, what, 19-8? That seems somewhat doable.

[Spanky99]

Five wins down.

 

18-8.

 

What Jays need to do going forward to make WC, still have a legit shot at 1st WC spot.

 

Take 3 of 4 @ Yanks

Take 3 of 4 @ Os

Take 2 of 3 vs Rays

Take 3 of 3 vs Twins

Take 1 of 3 @ Rays

Take 3 of 4 @ Twins

Take 2 of 3 vs Yanks

Take 3 of 3 vs Os

 

20-7 record

 

This would give us 94 wins and likely the 1st WC spot and a home game. I honestly think this is very plausible. We could even afford another loss or 2 and still make a WC spot.

 

For 93 wins, matching our total from 2015, we have to go, what, 19-8? That seems somewhat doable.

 

26 games left.