The Blue Jays acquire Jose Berrios from the Minnesota Twins

[Stangstag]

Yup, don't like this.

 

Can someone tell me why this is a good trade....?

 

Because Berrios is a good pitcher and will be here for next year too... Losing Martin hurts but prospects are never a certainty.

[BCZ]

Yup, don't like this.

 

Can someone tell me why this is a good trade....?

 

No

f

[BCZ]

I remember Shapiro or Atkins talking about the value of years of control when they got rid of Sanchez + Stroman... fast forward to today they trade 12 or something years of control of two top talents for basically 1 year of a #2 starter... what a cluster f***!

[Jimcanuck]

Jays overpaid somewhat to get Berrios, blocking him from the Rays in the process.

 

Rays rotation:

 

Yarborough

McClanahan

Patino

Wacha

Fleming

 

blech

[John_Havok]

I remember Shapiro or Atkins talking about the value of years of control when they got rid of Sanchez + Stroman... fast forward to today they trade 12 or something years of control of two top talents for basically 1 year of a #2 starter... what a cluster f***!

 

Value of wins takes on a new meaning when you're on an upward trajectory. Adding 5 wins is pretty meaningless when you're a 65-70 win team, but adding 5 wins when you're an 87-ish win team is pretty darn valuable.

 

And, no I'm not saying Berrios will add 5 wins this season, that's pretty much impossible given the season is more than half over, but the overall point remains true. Wins added to get above 87 wins are far more valuable than adding wins to get above 70.

[John_Havok]

Jays overpaid somewhat to get Berrios, blocking him from the Rays in the process.

 

Rays rotation:

 

Yarborough

McClanahan

Patino

Wacha

Fleming

 

blech

 

I'll never say the Rays rotation is garbage, they just sprinkle faerie dust on whomever they acquire and they instantly become something nobody thought possible, then proceed to trade them for elite prospects. Someone in Tampa sold their soul... for real.

[metafour]

Martin - A lot of guys have no power coming up. That's often the last thing to develop. Make excuses all you want he's a top 10 prospect for a reason.

 

Fangraphs literally just reevaluated him at #59. Baseball America dropped him from #12 to #21, and as per their comments on him after this trade - it seems they could have made a case for dropping him even further. Either way, no, he's not a Top 10 prospect anymore.

 

You are glossing over the concerns on him significantly. He dropped to #5 in the draft due to his arm-strength disappearing and the defensive question marks surrounding that, on top of there being worry about how much power he'd hit for. Now, both of those question marks (power and defensive outlook) look even worse than they did when he dropped from #2 to #5. Fangraphs says he hasn't looked good at either SS or CF this season (below-average arm and average speed limits his range), and his exit velocity is actually down 8 mph from college. So he has actually DECLINED in the power department.

 

Now, this is obviously his first pro season and you can argue that he can make adjustments, but what you are looking at is a guy who's prospective outlook as of TODAY is less than what it was to start the season. That needs to be accounted for when evaluating this trade, because ultimately when it comes to scouting the most recent sample is worth more than last year's sample.

 

SWR - He's 20 and this is the first year he's shown control issues. Make excuses all you want he's a top 50 prospect for a reason.

 

Baseball America literally dropped him out of the Top 100. Fangraphs has him at #48, and I don't think Keith Law has him in his Top 100 or ever did. Again, read the freaking updated reports. His velocity has dropped this season and he has never had "elite" stuff. There is lots of talk about a future backend #4 or #5 starter or reliever outlook with him. Again, just like Martin: his outlook and value have regressed. The control issues out of nowhere are concerning because that was actually his best "skill"; because he's an average velocity and average breaking-ball pitcher otherwise.

[Ray]

It’s fair to say that this front office doesn’t view Martin as an Alex Bregman or Anthony Rendon type, otherwise they wouldn’t have made this trade. Probably more of an above average regular than a future All-Star. IF that holds true, this becomes a much more equal deal on paper.

 

If this front office is wrong in their valuation, they’re wrong. But the swiftness of them moving on from him speaks volumes.

[AMS528]

I guess this deals feels a bit like the Twins got the absolute maximum value they could. They're going to feel pretty good about it about it. This deal (hopefully) won't land in the worst Blue Jays trades list like the Dickey for Syndergaard/D'Arnaud. Berrios is good but they better sign him to an extension. Giving up that many years of control over two guys, for one and half years of a very good but not elite pitcher would not make much sense.

[BCZ]

Value of wins takes on a new meaning when you're on an upward trajectory. Adding 5 wins is pretty meaningless when you're a 65-70 win team, but adding 5 wins when you're an 87-ish win team is pretty darn valuable.

 

And, no I'm not saying Berrios will add 5 wins this season, that's pretty much impossible given the season is more than half over, but the overall point remains true. Wins added to get above 87 wins are far more valuable than adding wins to get above 70.

 

That's a lot of speculation about when we'll be a crappy team again. I mean I can counter argue and say we have a strong core that could be very good for 5-8 years... now we gave away future talent that could add to that on a gamble for next year only. This year is a long shot.

[JFD]

So Berrios will be starting on Sunday?

[TheHurl]

 

And it's worse when you look at the fact that the Dodgers got Turner and Scherzer from a similar package. I don't see how this isn't an overpay when looking at that deal. Turner is better than Berrios by himself. And the Dodgers got Scherzer as well. And Turner has another controllable year like Berrios.

 

How do you get from that deal to this deal?

 

Simple. The Dodgers package was objectively better. Also the Rays and Jays were not in on the Scherzer deal as both were on his NTC. The Rays offer was reported to be Baz and one of their top prospect bats (for comp sakes I'll throw out Xavier Edwards) for Berrios. Sometimes it's timing, preference, as well as other factors.

[Olerud363]

I'll never say the Rays rotation is garbage, they just sprinkle faerie dust on whomever they acquire and they instantly become something nobody thought possible, then proceed to trade them for elite prospects. Someone in Tampa sold their soul... for real.

 

Berrios with twins - 14-11 3.50 200 ip 200 ks

Berrios with Jays and guidance from Pete walker - 16-10 3.25 200 ip 215 ks

 

Berrios with Rays - 18-4 2.15 185 ip 280 ks

 

Basically took a 3 WAR pitcher that Pete can imporve to a 4 WAR pitcher and prevented Rays from having a 7 WAR pitcher

[metafour]

It’s fair to say that this front office doesn’t view Martin as an Alex Bregman or Anthony Rendon type, otherwise they wouldn’t have made this trade. Probably more of an above average regular than a future All-Star. IF that holds true, this becomes a much more equal deal on paper.

 

If this front office is wrong in their valuation, they’re wrong. But the swiftness of them moving on from him speaks volumes.

 

Exactly. I'll bet any amount of money that Gabriel Moreno was off-limits in any trade discussion. The fact that they were willing to move Martin, while it being collaborated through several sources that both internal AND external evaluators were down on him, means something. They likely view him as more Dansby Swanson, than Alex Bregman. I'm sure Minnesota is hopeful that they can make some fixes with him which might entirely be possible, but you can't sit there and protect every prospect. Or sit there with a finger up your ass because you drafted this kid 5th overall so now you have to marry yourself to the notion that he's elite. Arizona's trade for Shelby Miller ended up being horrible, but they wetre correct in dumping Dansby Swanson even though at the time it was unfathomable that they'd trade a guy they drafted #1 overall.

[TheHurl]

This is Kyle Glaser from BA's take on Martin now.

 

Martin was considered a possibility for the No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft but instead fell to No. 5. He jumped immediately to Double-A New Hampshire to start his pro career this season and hit .281/.424/.383 with two home runs and 16 RBIs in 55 games while splitting his time almost evenly between shortstop (27 games and center field (26 games). Martin has a very good approach at the plate. He works counts, doesn’t expand the strike zone and has solid bat speed through the zone. More pure hitter than masher, Martin doesn’t make much impact when he connects and projects for average power at best. He is a divisive player among scouts: some see a good athlete who controls the strike zone and has handled an aggressive jump fairly well, while others see a light hitter who will have to add significant defensive value to be an above-average everyday player. Martin was drafted as a shortstop, but his actions and below-average, erratic arm don’t fit at the position. He has a good first step and instincts in center field and has shown the ability to pick up the position quickly. His arm strength and lack of accuracy precludes him from playing the left side of the diamond or right field, so he’ll have to find a way to stick in center field or bounce around between center, left and second base.

[Jaysareus]

Decent pitching is probably the most important thing in baseball so getting more of that for a somewhat high cost is justifiable.

[Jimcanuck]

Berrios was crying and seemed upset to be leaving Minny, hope he ends up liking and signing here long term.

 

Now that's the passion I want to see in a ballplayer, not that bitching by the M's players after Graveman was dealt.

[TheHurl]

Should have picked Veen eh?

 

I suppose having all your power over a 1 week span is better than average power

[vaff]

Exactly. I'll bet any amount of money that Gabriel Moreno was off-limits in any trade discussion. The fact that they were willing to move Martin, while it being collaborated through several sources that both internal AND external evaluators were down on him, means something. They likely view him as more Dansby Swanson, than Alex Bregman. I'm sure Minnesota is hopeful that they can make some fixes with him which might entirely be possible, but you can't sit there and protect every prospect. Or sit there with a finger up your ass because you drafted this kid 5th overall so now you have to marry yourself to the notion that he's elite. Arizona's trade for Shelby Miller ended up being horrible, but they wetre correct in dumping Dansby Swanson even though at the time it was unfathomable that they'd trade a guy they drafted #1 overall.

 

What about Orelvis? Do you think they consider him untouchable?

[Slade]

What about Orelvis? Do you think they consider him untouchable?

 

Probably not but he's getting there, he's still in Low A which doesn't give us a lot of insight but he has been very consistent as a pro at every level and now bigger power showing up.

[Jimcanuck]

Orelvis has the A-ball K rate down to 25%, which is not bad. But as he gets promoted and faces better pitching, that K rate might become a concern. For now, not an untouchable.

 

The K rate might be why he hasn't been promoted yet. Jays want to see better plate discipline before exposing him to better pitching.

[DigitalRock]

A little late here but WTF is this horseshit trade... unreal

 

lol

[DigitalRock]

Yup, don't like this.

 

Can someone tell me why this is a good trade....?

 

If you need someone to tell you..you are not here for good faith discussion chump. It's not that complicated.

[Spanky99]

Woohoo... Berrios is a game changer! Of course he was going to be expensive to acquire. Go Jays Go!!!

[Spanky99]

Hahaha uhhhh I guess Austin Martin could be mediocre but shouldn't he alone be enough for Berrios?

 

Basically, SWR was the gravy, lol.

[Virgil_Hiltz]

Did you miss that we just went through a pandemic? Ya think that might affect Ownership's willingness to spend?

 

With no real gate revenue and pouring multi-millions into training facilities and upgrading Sahlen Field.

[polar bear]

lets hope the 2022 season doesn't get cancelled or this could look like a really bad trade

 

Cheer up ffs.:

[Angrioter]

Tyler Chatwood DFA?

 

Best part of the Berrios' deal

[Krylian]

Shapiro has indicated that Rogers is fine with spending money. Did you miss the Springer and Ryu deals?

 

Those were good starts. Now we've got several of our own guys that are going to need significant investments. Let's see if Rogers continues to cut cheques.

[Starrynova]

This just screams of the Syndergaard trade again. I hated that one and I was right. I absolutely hate this one. Got fleeced terribly for a pitcher with 1 year of control while giving up 12+ years of control on two top prospects. Either Berrios sign for 5+ years, or we win the World Series, otherwise it’s a fireable offense for Shatkins IMO.