The Blue Jays acquire Jose Berrios from the Minnesota Twins

[John_Havok]

At this point I'd be fine with Berrios, Ryu, Ray, Stripling and mystery meat as the starting five. Put Manoah and Pearson in the pen. Limiting their innings being one factor and team need being the second. I know that 99% of the time a starting pitcher is more valuable than a reliever, but for THIS particular team it's gotten so desperate that the downgrade in using Matz over Manoah is more than offset by having ideally lights out guys in the pen available in every close game.

 

I understand your reasoning, but Manoah in the pen vs Stripling? Wouldn't you rather have Manoah as the starter in that scenario?

[Jays24]

You are not factoring in all the injuries to the pen early on.

 

Injuries happen to every team. The fact we were relying on Yates who reportedly failed a physical before signing and Merryweather who is made out of glass is just poor planning if they were planning to go all out this season.

 

Shatkins have been here for 6 years now so it just speaks to the lack of meaningful pitching depth they've built up.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Jays24

[Ehjays]

 

Atkins talking about the trade

[dineke]

Would this package have gotten Gallo? Watching grichuk or Lourdes out there everyday makes my eyes bleed.

[TwistedLogic]

Small sample size but one slightly concerning thing is Berrios' record against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.

 

4.93 ERA vs Boston (34.2 IP)

5.79 ERA vs Yankees (14.0 IP)

7.15 ERA vs Rays (22.2 IP)

 

Not sure how many of those innings are from before he became really good but some teams just have better scouting reports on specific pitchers and if those AL East teams know something about getting to Berrios, it could be problematic for the Jays.

 

Ironically, the team he's dominated the hardest in his career is the Blue Jays.

 

0.46 ERA in 19.2 career innings against the Jays.

[Daniel Labude]

Small sample size but one slightly concerning thing is Berrios' record against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.

 

4.93 ERA vs Boston (34.2 IP)

5.79 ERA vs Yankees (14.0 IP)

7.15 ERA vs Rays (22.2 IP)

 

Not sure how many of those innings are from before he became really good but some teams just have better scouting reports on specific pitchers and if those AL East teams know something about getting to Berrios, it could be problematic for the Jays.

 

Ironically, the team he's dominated the hardest in his career is the Blue Jays.

 

0.46 ERA in 19.2 career innings against the Jays.

 

AL Central has been a pile of poo offensively for a while now imo

[Deadpool]

Small sample size but one slightly concerning thing is Berrios' record against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.

 

4.93 ERA vs Boston (34.2 IP)

5.79 ERA vs Yankees (14.0 IP)

7.15 ERA vs Rays (22.2 IP)

 

Not sure how many of those innings are from before he became really good but some teams just have better scouting reports on specific pitchers and if those AL East teams know something about getting to Berrios, it could be problematic for the Jays.

 

Ironically, the team he's dominated the hardest in his career is the Blue Jays.

 

0.46 ERA in 19.2 career innings against the Jays.

 

GDT coming at all?

[Dick_Pole]

I understand your reasoning, but Manoah in the pen vs Stripling? Wouldn't you rather have Manoah as the starter in that scenario?

 

I guess it depends on what's the variance in win probability for a Stripling versus Manoah start and compare it to win probability in close games and having Manoah in the pen as an option. I honestly have no idea but would hope the team has some people who can do those types of calculations to make that decision. Ideally between the acquisitions and injuries coming back, multiple RP can stand up and fill that roll instead.

[Stangstag]

Small sample size but one slightly concerning thing is Berrios' record against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.

 

4.93 ERA vs Boston (34.2 IP)

5.79 ERA vs Yankees (14.0 IP)

7.15 ERA vs Rays (22.2 IP)

 

Not sure how many of those innings are from before he became really good but some teams just have better scouting reports on specific pitchers and if those AL East teams know something about getting to Berrios, it could be problematic for the Jays.

 

Ironically, the team he's dominated the hardest in his career is the Blue Jays.

 

0.46 ERA in 19.2 career innings against the Jays.

 

Don’t do this

[Ryu In My House]

Small sample size but one slightly concerning thing is Berrios' record against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.

 

4.93 ERA vs Boston (34.2 IP)

5.79 ERA vs Yankees (14.0 IP)

7.15 ERA vs Rays (22.2 IP)

 

Not sure how many of those innings are from before he became really good but some teams just have better scouting reports on specific pitchers and if those AL East teams know something about getting to Berrios, it could be problematic for the Jays.

 

Ironically, the team he's dominated the hardest in his career is the Blue Jays.

 

0.46 ERA in 19.2 career innings against the Jays.

 

I am not too worried. Pete Walker and the coaching staff face those teams a f*** ton and surely can prepare Berrios better than the Twins staff.

[DigitalRock]

Small sample size but one slightly concerning thing is Berrios' record against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.

 

4.93 ERA vs Boston (34.2 IP)

5.79 ERA vs Yankees (14.0 IP)

7.15 ERA vs Rays (22.2 IP)

 

Not sure how many of those innings are from before he became really good but some teams just have better scouting reports on specific pitchers and if those AL East teams know something about getting to Berrios, it could be problematic for the Jays.

 

Ironically, the team he's dominated the hardest in his career is the Blue Jays.

 

0.46 ERA in 19.2 career innings against the Jays.

 

lol

[AdamGreenwood]

Would this package have gotten Gallo? Watching grichuk or Lourdes out there everyday makes my eyes bleed.

 

We needed a quality SP a hell of a lot more than we needed more offense.

[jaysguy44]

Would this package have gotten Gallo? Watching grichuk or Lourdes out there everyday makes my eyes bleed.

Has this season not taught you anything?

[spats]

We needed a quality SP a hell of a lot more than we needed more offense.

 

Also, way too much for Gallo. Probably could have got him for 1 of those guys. I'm very happy with Berrios..he fills a need for this and next year.

[DigitalRock]

Has this season not taught you anything?

 

That would be a no.

[Ray]

Austin Martin moved down to a 50FV. Wasn’t he a 60FV guy coming out of college? SWR also a 50FV.

 

Objectively speaking, two 50FV for 1.5 years of a potential top of the rotation guy seems fair. People keep saying that we gave up more for Berrios than the Dodgers did for Scherzer and Turner, but Ruiz and Josiah Gray are both rated significantly higher.

[Jimcanuck]

Austin Martin moved down to a 50FV. Wasn’t he a 60FV guy coming out of college? SWR also a 50FV.

 

Objectively speaking, two 50FV for 1.5 years of a potential top of the rotation guy seems fair. People keep saying that we gave up more for Berrios than the Dodgers did for Scherzer and Turner, but Ruiz and Josiah Gray are both rated significantly higher.

 

Agreed. Ruiz in particular is seen as having massive potential. Power and rarely strikes out. His only problem is his noodle arm.

[EastCoaster]

We needed a quality SP a hell of a lot more than we needed more offense.

 

I agree the Blue Jays are ranked # 1 team in Homeruns in the majors offense isn't the problem by any means the problem has been the pitching out of the BP mainly. Despite having 3 good starter in Ryu, Ray and Manoah Berrios give us much more depth in the starting rotation. Now having new guys in the BP hopefully will help us down the stretch.

[Laika]

Austin Martin moved down to a 50FV. Wasn’t he a 60FV guy coming out of college? SWR also a 50FV.

 

Objectively speaking, two 50FV for 1.5 years of a potential top of the rotation guy seems fair. People keep saying that we gave up more for Berrios than the Dodgers did for Scherzer and Turner, but Ruiz and Josiah Gray are both rated significantly higher.

 

Yeah it seems like there was a big gap between insider and outsider perceptions of Martin and SWR. The gap has been correcting over the last week as updated public prospect rankings and trade analysis articles have shown that Martin and SWR have slid down lists.

[metafour]

Yeah it seems like there was a big gap between insider and outsider perceptions of Martin and SWR. The gap has been correcting over the last week as updated public prospect rankings and trade analysis articles have shown that Martin and SWR have slid down lists.

 

Fangraphs' ranking of prospects that were traded at the deadline. Has SWR #4 and Martin #5 (although I'm not sure how Nick Madrigal still qualifies as a "prospect"):

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-during-the-2021-deadline/

[Benito]

Yeah it seems like there was a big gap between insider and outsider perceptions of Martin and SWR. The gap has been correcting over the last week as updated public prospect rankings and trade analysis articles have shown that Martin and SWR have slid down lists.

 

I was one of those who reacted initially, from an outsider perception. I thought it was a gross overpay, but with all the new info and reports coming out since the trade, I feel much better. I think the other part of it is some undervalue Berrios, and see him as being closer to a no. 3 type starter. Whatever people want to label Berrios, ace or no.1, no.2, he's a top 20 starter in mlb. He also is young enough, where there could be an uptick in his performance, and Jays may get the best seasons from him yet. Add to that, even if Jays don't sign him to an extension, they will get a draft pick when he rejects QO. So really, it's 1.5 years of a top 20 starter, who is durable, plus a draft pick for two 50FV prospects.

[Laika]

Fangraphs' ranking of prospects that were traded at the deadline. Has SWR #4 and Martin #5 (although I'm not sure how Nick Madrigal still qualifies as a "prospect"):

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-during-the-2021-deadline/

 

That's funny, they ranked "compensation pick" because of the Trevor Story situation. Tagging connorp.

[The Cats Ass]

That's funny, they ranked "compensation pick" because of the Trevor Story situation. Tagging connorp.

 

And that's an ideal scenario for the Story pick. Wonder what the value of the pick would be if Story signs a 1 year deal to try and bounce back and gain some value. That 31st overall pick could turn into a 70-75th overall quick. Even a 2 year deal would put him under the $50M threshold. If he holds off a year he won't have to compete with Correa, Baez, Seager, and Semien.

[Stangstag]

And that's an ideal scenario for the Story pick. Wonder what the value of the pick would be if Story signs a 1 year deal to try and bounce back and gain some value. That 31st overall pick could turn into a 70-75th overall quick. Even a 2 year deal would put him under the $50M threshold. If he holds off a year he won't have to compete with Correa, Baez, Seager, and Semien.

 

Probably a good chance Story accepts the QO, then he can be a free agent in 2022 in an easier class with no draft pick compensation dragging him down.

 

Unless he truly hates Colorado

[Deadpool]

And that's an ideal scenario for the Story pick. Wonder what the value of the pick would be if Story signs a 1 year deal to try and bounce back and gain some value. That 31st overall pick could turn into a 70-75th overall quick. Even a 2 year deal would put him under the $50M threshold. If he holds off a year he won't have to compete with Correa, Baez, Seager, and Semien.

 

I can't see any team giving up a pick to sign him for 1 year...

[The Cats Ass]

I can't see any team giving up a pick to sign him for 1 year...

 

Could end up being a 3rd or even 4th round pick. Braves did it just the other year with Ozuna.

[The Iceman]

Keith Law

The Blue Jays continued an aggressive strategy at the trade deadline, sending their first overall pick from 2020 and one of the main pieces they got for Marcus Stroman to the Twins for starter José Bérrios.

 

Bérrios has been an incredibly consistent, reliable starter since becoming a full-time big leaguer in 2017; his ERA in each of the last five seasons has been between 3.48 (this year) and 4.00 (last year), and he hasn’t missed a start. He’s a command right-hander with a three-pitch mix, nothing truly plus except for maybe his curveball (I’d call it a strong grade-55 pitch), at his best when he’s locating his fastball away from the heart of the zone. Toronto’s rotation was supposed to have Nate Pearson in it by now, but with word that the Jays are going to move Pearson to the bullpen for the rest of this year, and Alek Manoah still on the IL with a back injury, they had a clear need for a reliable starter. Bérrios gives them innings and above-average run prevention, good enough to be their No. 3.

 

The Twins get two of the Jays’ top prospects coming into 2021, Austin Martin, No. 12 on my recent ranking of the top 50 prospects in baseball, and right-hander Simeon Woods-Richardson, but both guys who have slipped a little bit in Toronto’s and the industry’s eyes. Martin was the fifth overall pick in 2020, and was atop my draft board thanks to his combination of positional versatility, athleticism, and extremely high contact rates. The Jays assigned him right to Double A this spring to start his pro career; between that and a hand injury, he got off to a slow start, but he’s been improving as the season has progressed, hitting .289/.446/.398 since June 1st, .296/.500/.352 in 18 games so far in July.

 

His approach at the plate is superb and he has great hand-eye coordination to make contact, so there’s a high floor here, with several teams showing an increased interest in high-contact hitters in the last year or so. His swing has become more inside-out this year than it was at Vanderbilt, and he’s not using his legs enough to drive the ball, which explains the low ISO and overall lack of power. He’s played shortstop and centerfield this year for New Hampshire, and played third base in college, but his throwing has been inconsistent and I think center or second base are his two most likely long-term positions. His hands were always plus at third, and second may make the best use of his skills. I see a clear regular and leadoff hitter, with more upside if the Twins can get him in his legs more, but a muted ceiling until that happens.

 

Woods-Richardson’s velocity picked up after the Mets drafted him in 2018 and made him a full-time pitcher, but it has backed up since then and he’s been more fringe-average with his fastball along with a 50/55 changeup. He’s normally a strike-thrower, although this year he’s walked 13 percent of batters he’s faced after an aggressive placement in Double A, since he had just six starts in High A to close out 2019. His breaking ball remains below average, and his arm is extremely late relative to his landing leg, which, along with some stiffness through release, limits his velocity and north-south command. I think it all points to a more probable relief future than a starting one. That’s an everyday player with strong OBP skills and a small chance for some power, and a potentially above-average reliever with a small chance to start. For a year and a half of Bérrios, that sounds about right, even if these two prospects are more famous than their skills merit right now.

[Benito]

Keith Law

The Blue Jays continued an aggressive strategy at the trade deadline, sending their first overall pick from 2020 and one of the main pieces they got for Marcus Stroman to the Twins for starter José Bérrios.

 

Bérrios has been an incredibly consistent, reliable starter since becoming a full-time big leaguer in 2017; his ERA in each of the last five seasons has been between 3.48 (this year) and 4.00 (last year), and he hasn’t missed a start. He’s a command right-hander with a three-pitch mix, nothing truly plus except for maybe his curveball (I’d call it a strong grade-55 pitch), at his best when he’s locating his fastball away from the heart of the zone. Toronto’s rotation was supposed to have Nate Pearson in it by now, but with word that the Jays are going to move Pearson to the bullpen for the rest of this year, and Alek Manoah still on the IL with a back injury, they had a clear need for a reliable starter. Bérrios gives them innings and above-average run prevention, good enough to be their No. 3.

 

The Twins get two of the Jays’ top prospects coming into 2021, Austin Martin, No. 12 on my recent ranking of the top 50 prospects in baseball, and right-hander Simeon Woods-Richardson, but both guys who have slipped a little bit in Toronto’s and the industry’s eyes. Martin was the fifth overall pick in 2020, and was atop my draft board thanks to his combination of positional versatility, athleticism, and extremely high contact rates. The Jays assigned him right to Double A this spring to start his pro career; between that and a hand injury, he got off to a slow start, but he’s been improving as the season has progressed, hitting .289/.446/.398 since June 1st, .296/.500/.352 in 18 games so far in July.

 

His approach at the plate is superb and he has great hand-eye coordination to make contact, so there’s a high floor here, with several teams showing an increased interest in high-contact hitters in the last year or so. His swing has become more inside-out this year than it was at Vanderbilt, and he’s not using his legs enough to drive the ball, which explains the low ISO and overall lack of power. He’s played shortstop and centerfield this year for New Hampshire, and played third base in college, but his throwing has been inconsistent and I think center or second base are his two most likely long-term positions. His hands were always plus at third, and second may make the best use of his skills. I see a clear regular and leadoff hitter, with more upside if the Twins can get him in his legs more, but a muted ceiling until that happens.

 

Woods-Richardson’s velocity picked up after the Mets drafted him in 2018 and made him a full-time pitcher, but it has backed up since then and he’s been more fringe-average with his fastball along with a 50/55 changeup. He’s normally a strike-thrower, although this year he’s walked 13 percent of batters he’s faced after an aggressive placement in Double A, since he had just six starts in High A to close out 2019. His breaking ball remains below average, and his arm is extremely late relative to his landing leg, which, along with some stiffness through release, limits his velocity and north-south command. I think it all points to a more probable relief future than a starting one. That’s an everyday player with strong OBP skills and a small chance for some power, and a potentially above-average reliever with a small chance to start. For a year and a half of Bérrios, that sounds about right, even if these two prospects are more famous than their skills merit right now.

 

That sounds like a pretty fair assessment from Law. Although I think the no.3 on our staff statement is debatable. I feel he's right there with Ray as 1A/1B on our staff this year. I think the last sentence sums up the trade succinctly.