GDT (1/4) | Blue Jays (14-12) @ Athletics (17-12) | May 3 — 9:40 PM

[Dr.Tubes]

Injury depth, as Espinal has an option. When Springer starts playing CF, we'll see Rowdy back, with Espinal optioned. Just guessing here, obviously.

I was under the impression that Shatkins are big analytics guys and Montoyo allegedly has the Rays golden touch. I know the sample size is pretty small at this point but Espinal has been a plus defender at 3rd and actually provided a bit of value with his bat whereas Panik is a negative defender at third and with the bat. 840% fielding percentage at 3rd and -2.0 def war overall before his performance tonight. At what point do you think they reward Espinal and make what certainly appears to be the correct decision and move him up in the depth chart over Panik?

[Jgarza868899]

Just stop this ******** and put Springer on the IL. Let him heal and come back in June. He’s not even healthy enough to pinch hit...... doubt he’s going to play tomorrow

[Terminator]

I was under the impression that Shatkins are big analytics guys and Montoyo allegedly has the Rays golden touch. I know the sample size is pretty small at this point but Espinal has been a plus defender at 3rd and actually provided a bit of value with his bat whereas Panik is a negative defender at third and with the bat. 840% fielding percentage at 3rd and -2.0 def war overall before his performance tonight. At what point do you think they reward Espinal and make what certainly appears to be the correct decision and move him up in the depth chart over Panik?

 

Yeah Panik, despite limited playing time, has provided the most negative defensive value at 3B the past couple of years. I could see putting Panik at 2B over Espinal but I don't think I'd play him at 3B over him.

 

As for the bat, I think they both suck but Panik has a better eye/bat control and bats left handed. No idea why he bats ahead of Gurriel though.

[RobinThicc]

Panik is on the team because he hits left. Thats it.

 

They're so obsessed with having some lefties, they dont care if the guy is actually good or not.

[Spanky99]

I was under the impression that Shatkins are big analytics guys and Montoyo allegedly has the Rays golden touch. I know the sample size is pretty small at this point but Espinal has been a plus defender at 3rd and actually provided a bit of value with his bat whereas Panik is a negative defender at third and with the bat. 840% fielding percentage at 3rd and -2.0 def war overall before his performance tonight. At what point do you think they reward Espinal and make what certainly appears to be the correct decision and move him up in the depth chart over Panik?

 

Not anytime soon the way Charlie uses them.

[Spanky99]

Yeah Panik, despite limited playing time, has provided the most negative defensive value at 3B the past couple of years. I could see putting Panik at 2B over Espinal but I don't think I'd play him at 3B over him.

 

As for the bat, I think they both suck but Panik has a better eye/bat control and bats left handed. No idea why he bats ahead of Gurriel though.

 

Espinal has decent enough numbers in the minors, he deserves a shot.

[Dr.Tubes]

Yeah Panik, despite limited playing time, has provided the most negative defensive value at 3B the past couple of years. I could see putting Panik at 2B over Espinal but I don't think I'd play him at 3B over him.

 

As for the bat, I think they both suck but Panik has a better eye/bat control and bats left handed. No idea why he bats ahead of Gurriel though.

Yeah I figured the lefty thing was playing a big part of it. At some point you would think management will face the fact his negative production outweighs any of the perceived benefit of his left handed bat.

 

As to Espinal being a s***** hitter, Maybe he will be but he has put up a roughly 115-120 wrc+ in the minors the past couple years. I don’t think it is outside the realm of possibility he could hit a little bit if given the opportunity. Small sample I know but he is putting up a 126wrc+ right now.

[Terminator]

Yeah I figured the lefty thing was playing a big part of it. At some point you would think management will face the fact his negative production outweighs any of the perceived benefit of his left handed bat.

 

As to Espinal being a s***** hitter, Maybe he will be but he has put up a roughly 115-120 wrc+ in the minors the past couple years. I don’t think it is outside the realm of possibility he could hit a little bit if given the opportunity. Small sample I know but he is putting up a 126wrc+ right now.

 

Yeah he's young enough that perhaps he could be a passable bat and we just don't know it yet. Given his track record the odds aren't in his favor but it wouldn't hurt to give him more time right now while we are so dinged up and have such s***** infield defense.

[Spanky99]

Yeah he's young enough that perhaps he could be a passable bat and we just don't know it yet. Given his track record the odds aren't in his favor but it wouldn't hurt to give him more time right now while we are so dinged up and have such s***** infield defense.

 

Yeah, and the upgrade is a plus in the field, use him while he's up here at the least.

[Dr.Tubes]

Not anytime soon the way Charlie uses them.

Yeah it seems that way. I’ve been a pretty big fan of how the team has been constructed by Shapiro and Atkins minus a couple hiccups. Montoyo’s line ups and in game decisions however are questionable if I’m being kind. I heard that reanimated corpse Pat Tabler say on the broadcast that with all the injuries for the team to be above .500 is all on Charlie. I don’t know what these people are seeing or what i am missing with the guy. His explanations for some of his decisions amount to “I had a feeling and my ******* quivered so i dropped panik into the 5 hole tonight.”

[Spanky99]

lol... something like that.

[Spanky99]

I think they brought him up too early, I guess his rehab schedule is better off up here, is what it is... *sighs*

 

 

[glory]

Panik is on the team because he hits left. Thats it.

 

They're so obsessed with having some lefties, they dont care if the guy is actually good or not.

 

This is the answer because they start Panik against RHP and Espinal against LHP despite Panik not being able to hit righties at all in the last 3-4 seasons.

 

Really wish they signed Brad Miller. A LH bat who can actually hit and likely isn't any worse at 3B than Panik is. Hell, even if he is, the bat would at least make up for it.

[Laika]

Panik is in a weird/frustrating place as a hitter, for me as a spectator. He seems to put the ball in play a lot on good trajectories, he just doesn't find enough grass or hit it hard enough to produce.

 

I can see why the team has been attracted to him as a cheap bench player the last couple of years. A left-handed hitting infielder just fits the mostly RHB roster and his xwOBA has been higher than his wOBA, showing a bit of positive regression potential. But I think it's clear at this point that he's swinging a pool noodle and it's just not going to happen. His defense has also fallen to just average.

 

If only Espinal was left handed...

 

Internally for 2021 I don't see a Panik upgrade. Most everyone is right handed. I guess Breyvic Valera is a switch hitter and could do better?

 

You know what, at this rate when everyone is healthy in 2022 CAVAN BIGGIO might actually be the one serving in Panik's role. Biggio would be so much better at being Joe Panik than Joe Panik.

[saskjayfan]

Panik is in a weird/frustrating place as a hitter, for me as a spectator. He seems to put the ball in play a lot on good trajectories, he just doesn't find enough grass or hit it hard enough to produce.

 

I can see why the team has been attracted to him as a cheap bench player the last couple of years. A left-handed hitting infielder just fits the mostly RHB roster and his xwOBA has been higher than his wOBA, showing a bit of positive regression potential. But I think it's clear at this point that he's swinging a pool noodle and it's just not going to happen. His defense has also fallen to just average.

 

If only Espinal was left handed...

 

Internally for 2021 I don't see a Panik upgrade. Most everyone is right handed. I guess Breyvic Valera is a switch hitter and could do better?

 

You know what, at this rate when everyone is healthy in 2022 CAVAN BIGGIO might actually be the one serving in Panik's role. Biggio would be so much better at being Joe Panik than Joe Panik.

 

Panik and Espinal are both very similar hitters in that neither strike out much. Espinal is a much better defender though. I'm ready to see a run of Espinal. He may have a bit more pop in his bat than I expect. With the lefty on tonight, he should get the start.

[BigCecil]

Panik analysis in full flight.

 

Its simple for me. We know what Panik is, & since 2016 he has been a below avg LHH hitter. He sucks at 3B.

 

Espinal is young with some potential offensive upside and plus D. You guys have looked at his D numbers im sure.

 

I just can't stand watching Panik play. Its like there is no hope. He isn't awful but he is what he is. Would much rather give Espinal a full shot and takes me chances. On this team, with our pitching staff, plugging the gaps on D is going to be hugely important.

[Spanky99]

Panik and Espinal are both very similar hitters in that neither strike out much. Espinal is a much better defender though. I'm ready to see a run of Espinal. He may have a bit more pop in his bat than I expect. With the lefty on tonight, he should get the start.

 

Who's DHing? I'd rather see neither...

[Jays24]

Who's DHing? I'd rather see neither...

 

Pretty sure Panik will get the nod as DH again lol

[Laika]

It's ironic but Espinal might be a better hitter than Panik right now specifically because he is worse at hitting.

 

Panik's avg and max EV in his career are 86.2 and 108.1. Espinal's are 84.4 and 104.4. Similar average LA of 11.5 and 11.8.

 

Because Espinal hits the ball more... lightly.... he is more likely to get the benefit of bloop singles. I'm talking about 70mph batted balls in the air. Anecdotally, Panik hits a lot of balls decently that are just dead on contact ~300 foot flyballs. One of worst things you can do as a hitter is to consistently hit balls like, 85mph in the air (at certain launch angles).

 

https://miro.medium.com/max/1938/1*u8TcG4RxG62vwjo8AJQ6Sw.png

 

[Jays24]

It's ironic but Espinal might be a better hitter than Panik right now specifically because he is worse at hitting.

 

Panik's avg and max EV in his career are 86.2 and 108.1. Espinal's are 84.4 and 104.4. Similar average LA of 11.5 and 11.8.

 

Because Espinal hits the ball more... lightly.... he is more likely to get the benefit of bloop singles. I'm talking about 70mph batted balls in the air. Anecdotally, Panik hits a lot of balls decently that are just dead on contact ~300 foot flyballs. One of worst things you can do as a hitter is to consistently hit balls like, 85mph in the air (at certain launch angles).

 

https://miro.medium.com/max/1938/1*u8TcG4RxG62vwjo8AJQ6Sw.png

 

 

That graph doesn't take into account launch angle does it?

 

That seems to be sheer luck as to why balls hit 70MPH have more success than balls hit 80 to 95 MPH. You would assume the harder you hit the ball, the better chance for success as it gives the defense less time to react and also makes the play harder for them.

[Spanky99]

That graph doesn't take into account launch angle does it? That seems to be sheer luck as to why balls hit 70MPH have more success than balls hit 80 to 95 MPH. You would assume the harder you hit the ball, the better chance for success.

 

It's right there on the graph? Between 22-28 degrees LA.

[Orgfiller]

That graph doesn't take into account launch angle does it?

 

That seems to be sheer luck as to why balls hit 70MPH have more success than balls hit 80 to 95 MPH. You would assume the harder you hit the ball, the better chance for success as it gives the defense less time to react and also makes the play harder for them.

 

Did you read the title of the graph?

 

And not really, infield singles are on average probably hit much softer. Hit it a bit harder and the fielder has enough time to make a play. That's why there's a valley, there's a sweet spot between hitting it softly enough for a bloop/crappy hit and hitting it hard but not hard enough to give the defense time to get to the ball and make a play.

[Laika]

That graph doesn't take into account launch angle does it? That seems to be sheer luck as to why balls hit 70MPH have more success than balls hit 80 to 95 MPH. You would assume the harder you hit the ball, the better chance for success.

 

You can find other visuals. They all look similar.

 

It is true that at certain launch angles hitting the ball say, 70 mph rather than 85 mph can be way more effective.

 

It's not luck, it's just based on the simple fact that there is a gap between infielders and outfielders.

 

Now the visual differences between Panik and Espinal could be due to complete luck. But my hypothesis (unproven and I won't put money on this) is just that Espinal, for whatever reason, is just better at hitting balls that find the orange zone on the below graph a bit more often. Because he is worse at hitting. Panik is almost too good at hitting - he consistently hits balls in a suboptimal way. He's easy to defend.

 

[Jays24]

It's right there on the graph? Between 22-28 degrees LA.

 

My bad... was stuck looking at the graph itself and didn't look at the entire title.

[Terminator]

It's ironic but Espinal might be a better hitter than Panik right now specifically because he is worse at hitting.

 

Panik's avg and max EV in his career are 86.2 and 108.1. Espinal's are 84.4 and 104.4. Similar average LA of 11.5 and 11.8.

 

Because Espinal hits the ball more... lightly.... he is more likely to get the benefit of bloop singles. I'm talking about 70mph batted balls in the air. Anecdotally, Panik hits a lot of balls decently that are just dead on contact ~300 foot flyballs. One of worst things you can do as a hitter is to consistently hit balls like, 85mph in the air (at certain launch angles).

 

https://miro.medium.com/max/1938/1*u8TcG4RxG62vwjo8AJQ6Sw.png

 

I'd say that theory certainly passes the eye test. Seems like he hits tons of those floating line outs to the OF. Doesn't hit them hard enough to get over their heads and not soft enough to fall in front of them. Even in yesterday's game we saw it in his final two ABs. His game log is filled with them:

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/joe-panik-605412?stats=gamelogs-r-hitting-statcast&season=2021

[Terminator]

This is the answer because they start Panik against RHP and Espinal against LHP despite Panik not being able to hit righties at all in the last 3-4 seasons.

 

Really wish they signed Brad Miller. A LH bat who can actually hit and likely isn't any worse at 3B than Panik is. Hell, even if he is, the bat would at least make up for it.

 

I'm sure they kicked the tires on Miller. It seems like they did with Marwin Gonzalez too. But sometimes it's tough to get guys to take your money. We had a starting infield, outfield and DH all accounted for and the Sox and Philly (especially when the universal DH seemed like a thing) were better bets for playing time.

 

I'm sure that's partially why we went with Panik is because he came for cheap on a minor league deal.

[Terminator]

 

Internally for 2021 I don't see a Panik upgrade. Most everyone is right handed. I guess Breyvic Valera is a switch hitter and could do better?

 

 

I always thought Valera might be a potential guy. If you look at his stats he saw a jump in homers in AAA in 2019. It's probably due to the AAA ball and everyone getting a jump in homers but I do remember reading on how the Yankees changed his swing to produce more LA. I'm sure Atkins is all over it but I wouldn't mind giving him a try at some point.

[dineke]

You can find other visuals. They all look similar.

 

It is true that at certain launch angles hitting the ball say, 70 mph rather than 85 mph can be way more effective.

 

It's not luck, it's just based on the simple fact that there is a gap between infielders and outfielders.

 

Now the visual differences between Panik and Espinal could be due to complete luck. But my hypothesis (unproven and I won't put money on this) is just that Espinal, for whatever reason, is just better at hitting balls that find the orange zone on the below graph a bit more often. Because he is worse at hitting. Panik is almost too good at hitting - he consistently hits balls in a suboptimal way. He's easy to defend.

 

 

This makes me miss Ichiro. He perfected the art of the bloop single.

[Stangstag]

I always thought Valera might be a potential guy. If you look at his stats he saw a jump in homers in AAA in 2019. It's probably due to the AAA ball and everyone getting a jump in homers but I do remember reading on how the Yankees changed his swing to produce more LA. I'm sure Atkins is all over it but I wouldn't mind giving him a try at some point.

 

He loses points for being ass-ugly though

[wilko]

He loses points for being ass-ugly though