Around Baseball 2021

[connorp]

 

Bob Nightengale

@BNightengale

 

The #Rockies now will try to lock up SS Trevor Story with Nolan Arenado off the books. Story is a free agent after the season.

 

This guy is funny. Give enough insider takes and eventually one is bound to be right

[Abomination]

Could the $50M only be provided if he doesn't opt out?

 

 

Maybe the 50M applies to 2023 and later? If he opts out, it would go poof automatically.

[Orgfiller]

Okay so it makes more sense now. Rosenthal is saying Arenado would keep his opt out after 2021 and GAIN an opt out after 2022.

 

The Rockies eating $50M probably only applies in some complicated way if he does not opt out... Or maybe some of it applies in 2021 regardless. We will see.

 

That would justify the s***** return because STL likely only gets one year of Arenado.

 

So I guess the real question at this point is why would the Rockies settle for a package of trash instead of asking for one good prospect/young player and some unknown lottery tickets? Jhon Torres and Austin f***ing Gomber is the best they could do for a 5 WAR superstar?

 

This seems like the package you give up for Kris Bryant because you think he's past it not a guy averaging 5.5 WAR the last 4 seasons and a third of a bad season that no one cares about.

[Jimcanuck]

Hell of a gamble by the Rox if true. $50M isn't chump change.

 

Cards already lining up endorsement deals for Arenado so he doesn't opt out.

[Ehjays]

Get German Marquez!!!!! Trade Groshans

 

^ This

[Laika]

So I guess the real question at this point is why would the Rockies settle for a package of trash instead of asking for one good prospect/young player and some unknown lottery tickets? Jhon Torres and Austin f***ing Gomber is the best they could do for a 5 WAR superstar?

 

This seems like the package you give up for Kris Bryant because you think he's past it not a guy averaging 5.5 WAR the last 4 seasons and a third of a bad season that no one cares about.

 

Rockies = Dumb is the assumption but we need to wait for all the details. Maybe there are some real nice lottery ticket prospects in there, or an additional major league piece... I dunno.

[Grant77]

Could the $50M only be provided if he doesn't opt out?

 

That's certainly going to be the case. The Rockies are just hedging their bets so they don't get left with nothing after 2021 and/or get stuck with an albatross contract if he has a bad year.

[43211234]

I don't see why Arenado would opt out. Unless he put up like an 8 WAR season in 2021.

 

He's making $35M for the next four seasons, then $32M, then $27M. I don't see him realistically matching that in free agency.

[dineke]

Dang I wish the Jays were in on this. Love Arenado.

[Brownie19]

I don't see why Arenado would opt out. Unless he put up like an 8 WAR season in 2021.

 

He's making $35M for the next four seasons, then $32M, then $27M. I don't see him realistically matching that in free agency.

 

I agree. He'll still have 5 years $164M owed to him after this season. Unless COVID vanishes and the market corrects, I'm not sure he's going to do any better than that. Maybe after the 2022 season when he's only got $129M left on his deal? That might be why he got the additional opt-out added.

[glory]

Arenado is getting an extra guaranteed year at $15m according to Heyman, in addition to the extra opt out after 2022.

 

So he'll have about 7/214 left on his deal now with the extra year added, and the Rockies covering $50m. Cards basically get him for 7/164 if he doesn't opt out, from ages 30-36.

[Ray]

The $50M owed has to be contingent on Arenado not opting out, otherwise it’s an all time bad deal for the Rockies.

 

I mean, it’s still pretty bad regardless, but it’d be slightly less bad.

[Grant77]

Dang I wish the Jays were in on this. Love Arenado.

 

If I were to hazard a guess, I would say that he was not willing to waive his NTC to come here.

[Orgfiller]

The $50M owed has to be contingent on Arenado not opting out, otherwise it’s an all time bad deal for the Rockies.

 

I mean, it’s still pretty bad regardless, but it’d be slightly less bad.

 

I honestly think it's worse if he doesn't opt out. That means the Rockies were willing to help the Cards load the "burden" of the deal and in the process they didn't even increase the value of the return? Usually when you eat salary it's so that the pieces you're getting back are worth something. Even if the deal becomes an albatross the idiot Rockies will still brunt a portion of that, and they're paying as if it already is and not that Arenado could get back to his 5-6 WAR star level immediately for at least half of that.

 

Even if Arenado was a rental this in an all-time terrible return IMO. The Texas Rangers traded one year of Lance Lynn for Dane Dunning+. Dane Dunning alone is worth more than everything the Rockies are receiving here.

[Spanky99]

lol... Rockies got dragged behind the shed.

[Spanky99]

I don't see why Arenado would opt out. Unless he put up like an 8 WAR season in 2021.

 

He's making $35M for the next four seasons, then $32M, then $27M. I don't see him realistically matching that in free agency.

 

Yeah, I agree. There's no way he's going to opt out of that deal, especially now that he's a Card.

[Brownie19]

I honestly think it's worse if he doesn't opt out. That means the Rockies were willing to help the Cards load the "burden" of the deal and in the process they didn't even increase the value of the return? Usually when you eat salary it's so that the pieces you're getting back are worth something. Even if the deal becomes an albatross the idiot Rockies will still brunt a portion of that, and they're paying as if it already is and not that Arenado could get back to his 5-6 WAR star level immediately for at least half of that.

 

Even if Arenado was a rental this in an all-time terrible return IMO. The Texas Rangers traded one year of Lance Lynn for Dane Dunning+. Dane Dunning alone is worth more than everything the Rockies are receiving here.

 

I think we have to consider the possibility Arenado doesn't opt-out. If Arenado was a FA this year, there's no way he's getting 6 years $199M with an opt-out and NTC. So he's a negative value contract and I suspect they had a very difficult time finding anyone to take him for free at that cost. So the Rockies pitch in another $15M and another opt-out to get him to consider waiving his NTC, then they have to dangle $50M to find anyone to even consider taking him.

 

Then you consider he can bail on the team acquiring him at the end of this year or next year and bam - he simply isn't worth a lot IMO. The Rockies had to find a team willing to take on Arenado for 6 years $149M with 2 opt-outs....and it had to be a team that Arenado wanted to go to.

 

Do you think teams would give us anything of value for Springer in a trade right now? I doubt it.

[Jimcanuck]

Do you think teams would give us anything of value for Springer in a trade right now? I doubt it.

 

Not at this point. But when this pandemic is over and the front load payments have been made, Springer will have trade value. Assuming his performance follows the expected trajectory.

[Laika]

I think we have to consider the possibility Arenado doesn't opt-out. If Arenado was a FA this year, there's no way he's getting 6 years $199M with an opt-out and NTC. So he's a negative value contract and I suspect they had a very difficult time finding anyone to take him for free at that cost. So the Rockies pitch in another $15M and another opt-out to get him to consider waiving his NTC, then they have to dangle $50M to find anyone to even consider taking him.

 

Then you consider he can bail on the team acquiring him at the end of this year or next year and bam - he simply isn't worth a lot IMO. The Rockies had to find a team willing to take on Arenado for 6 years $149M with 2 opt-outs....and it had to be a team that Arenado wanted to go to.

 

Do you think teams would give us anything of value for Springer in a trade right now? I doubt it.

 

If Arenado was a free agent this offseason isn't the starting point for him the Rendon deal???

[DigitalRock]

Damn would love to have Arenado, hitting in rogers centre.

[saskjayfan]

If Arenado was a free agent this offseason isn't the starting point for him the Rendon deal???

 

Rendon probably got overpaid and we just went through a pandemic. Rendon is a better hitter and better on the base paths. I'd take Rendon for equivalent dollars.

 

I think Bauer is going to have to take a short term deal, because he won't get the AAV he's looking for on a long term deal. I really struggle to see his market. I'm not sure where he goes.

[Brownie19]

If Arenado was a free agent this offseason isn't the starting point for him the Rendon deal???

 

This year? I don't think so (I also think Rendon is better than Arenado in general). There aren't many teams in baseball looking to add a lot of payroll. You could argue that you're banking on values returning to normal in 2022 or 2023, but who knows. Unfortunately for the Rockies - if they wait....and values return, then Arenado opt-out and is gone.

[Brownie19]

Damn would love to have Arenado, hitting in rogers centre.

 

Yeah imagine the numbers he could put up if he got out of Coors Field...

[The Cats Ass]

Arenado at FA money is a risky buy. His career away OPS (.793) is roughly .200 below his home. Depends if you think now that he’s out of Coors he’ll still be able to hit at both away and home.

 

If he can hit out of Coors and is great this year or next year, he can opt out. If he can’t hit, you’re stuck with him.

 

Would prefer Springer. Or the Rendon contract.

[Laika]

Rendon probably got overpaid and we just went through a pandemic. Rendon is a better hitter and better on the base paths. I'd take Rendon for equivalent dollars.

 

I think Bauer is going to have to take a short term deal, because he won't get the AAV he's looking for on a long term deal. I really struggle to see his market. I'm not sure where he goes.

 

This year? I don't think so (I also think Rendon is better than Arenado in general). There aren't many teams in baseball looking to add a lot of payroll. You could argue that you're banking on values returning to normal in 2022 or 2023, but who knows. Unfortunately for the Rockies - if they wait....and values return, then Arenado opt-out and is gone.

 

Salaries have not been very depressed this offseason and not depressed at all for top end talent. Look at Springer, Realmuto, Hendriks.

[Laika]

Arenado at FA money is a risky buy. His career away OPS (.793) is roughly .200 below his home. Depends if you think now that he’s out of Coors he’ll still be able to hit at both away and home.

 

If he can hit out of Coors and is great this year or next year, he can opt out. If he can’t hit, you’re stuck with him.

 

Would prefer Springer. Or the Rendon contract.

 

It's well documented that having Coors as your home field tanks your road numbers. Something about constantly adjusting to different pitch dynamics. I'm not worried about Arenado's offense at all.

[saskjayfan]

Salaries have not been very depressed this offseason and not depressed at all for top end talent. Look at Springer, Realmuto, Hendriks.

 

Yeah, but I would argue Springer and Realmuto signed for desperate teams..lol. White sox might fit in there too. Hendriks at 4 and 54 isn't outrageous for the best closer in the market. I mean Davis got 3 and 52 not that long ago. 4 and 54 with a parachute clause to defer payments for Hendriks seems entirely reasonable given his talents.

[saskjayfan]

It's well documented that having Coors as your home field tanks your road numbers. Something about constantly adjusting to different pitch dynamics. I'm not worried about Arenado's offense at all.

 

Breaking balls don't break near as much at coors. 2.32 inches on curve balls. The adjustments to the ball on the road is a unique challenge for Rockies hitters. Travelling from altitude is also harder on the body. Rockies players really do have it harder on the road.

[The Cats Ass]

It's well documented that having Coors as your home field tanks your road numbers. Something about constantly adjusting to different pitch dynamics. I'm not worried about Arenado's offense at all.

 

There’s cases for players going both ways.

[Brownie19]

It's well documented that having Coors as your home field tanks your road numbers. Something about constantly adjusting to different pitch dynamics. I'm not worried about Arenado's offense at all.

 

Has there ever been a stud player leave Coors Field that continued to be a great hitter?