Offseason Roster Thread (2020-2021)

[Orgfiller]

I simply think that Seager is a better player at this point of his career than Gregorius is and offers higher upside. I have strong suspicions that Gregorius is going to see his production tank as he was likely the recipient of good extremely good fortune in 2020.

 

I just don't see this upside. Seager is 33 years old and was basically equal to Gregorious this shortened season, was much better the year before when the latter was injured, and much worse two seasons ago when both played (roughly) full seasons. If anything I'd say Didi has the higher upside given that he's two years younger, is two seasons removed from a 4+ win season (consecutive ones at that), was at least as good of a player as Seager with the most recent data we have of them, and has significantly better positional flexibility - assuming it would be a lot easier for the SS to play 3B and 2B at a passable or better level than the career corner infielder.

[Ray]

Cesar Hernandez would be a nice add. Really good defensively, versatile around the infield, switch hitter, high OBP guy.

 

Shouldn't be too expensive either. Probably 2 years at $16M or something?

[wilko]

Cesar Hernandez would be a nice add. Really good defensively, versatile around the infield, switch hitter, high OBP guy.

 

Shouldn't be too expensive either. Probably 2 years at $16M or something?

 

That's an interesting take.

[Terminator]

Cesar Hernandez would be a nice add. Really good defensively, versatile around the infield, switch hitter, high OBP guy.

 

Shouldn't be too expensive either. Probably 2 years at $16M or something?

 

Yeah he could be a good cheap option.

 

I still like Semien, he has huge WAR potential that the other infield options don't. Probably takes 4 years to get him though and after Springer's megadeal I'm not sure they'll want to do that.

[Jays24]

Now that CF is covered for the foreseeable future, where do you guys see Martin playing? Say he comes up as early as May, 2022, where do you think his best spot is? I know this offseason (and next) are far from over, but ideally is his best position SS? Does he have the arm for 3B. Maybe he'd be a good corner OF?

 

No need to make that decision now. He can probably be a very good 3rd baseman, but we might leave him in CF as we should expect Springer to slide over to RF in 2024 or 2025 (maybe sooner?)

 

We should do what's in his best interest and and play him at his best position. If he's a CF then he can start as a corner outfielder at the majors. Having 2 CFs is a luxury and we'll know when it's time to switch Springer and Martin.

 

If he's a SS and better than Bo defensively, he should battle it out there too. Let's see what the kid can handle before we anoint him as anything but I'm damn curious.

[BTS]

Yamaguchi hanging on...

 

Still two more casualties left to accommodate Yates and Springer. Yamaguchi will fall.

[Jimcanuck]

A lot can happen in baseball between now and the time Martin is ready for MLB. He's probably a candidate for every position but 1B and C.

[max silver]

I just don't see this upside. Seager is 33 years old and was basically equal to Gregorious this shortened season, was much better the year before when the latter was injured, and much worse two seasons ago when both played (roughly) full seasons. If anything I'd say Didi has the higher upside given that he's two years younger, is two seasons removed from a 4+ win season (consecutive ones at that), was at least as good of a player as Seager with the most recent data we have of them, and has significantly better positional flexibility - assuming it would be a lot easier for the SS to play 3B and 2B at a passable or better level than the career corner infielder.

 

I think the wisdom of a potential Gregorius signing depends largely on whether he's willing to primarily be a third baseman instead of shortstop. He's nowhere close to the caliber of player I'd consider moving Bo Bichette off of the position for. I certainly didn't give him enough credit for the ability to cover shortstop in the case of a Bichette injury in my original posts. If the Jays were to sign a shortstop to man third base I'd rather they shoot for Semien personally, although Gregorius would almost certainly be more cost effective.

 

I'm not sure why Seager has such a bad reputation, when he's healthy and on the field he's a very good player. In 2019 he produced a WAR of 4.1/150, and in 2020 he produced 3.75/150. He's had one bad season in his career, and other than the bad 2018 he's basically been a 3.5+ win player.

Edited January 22, 2021 by max silver
typo

[Spanky99]

Still two more casualties left to accommodate Yates and Springer. Yamaguchi will fall.

 

Waguespack and Diaz.

[Spanky99]

I think the wisdom of a potential Gregorius signing depends largely on whether he's willing to primarily be a third baseman instead of shortstop. He's nowhere close to the caliber of player I'd consider moving Bo Bichette off of the position for. I certainly didn't give him enough credit for the ability to cover shortstop in the case of a Bichette injury in my original posts. If the Jays were to sign a shortstop to man third base I'd rather they shoot for Semien personally, although Gregorius would almost certainly be more cost effective.

 

I'm not sure why Seager has such a bad reputation, when he's healthy and on the field he's a very good player. In 2019 he produced a WAR of 4.1/150, and in 2020 he produced 3.75/150. He's had one bad season in his season, and other than the bad 2018 he's basically been a 3.5+ win player.

 

He's expensive, acquires a trade, Didi cash on a shorter contract thanks.

[max silver]

He's expensive, acquires a trade, Didi cash on a shorter contract thanks.

 

MLBTR has Didi signing a 3 year deal, would he even consider a shorter contract?

[Spanky99]

MLBTR has Didi signing a 3 year deal, would he even consider a shorter contract?

 

Those terms likely went out the window a while ago. We'll see...

[Ryu In My House]

Of course his arm is better than Cavan's, he's a SS.

 

Source?

[Spanky99]

Source?

 

Common sense.

[keggy]

Source?

 

Didi has a true shortstop's arm, possibly the best arm strength on the team if he signed.

[Spanky99]

Didi has a true shortstop's arm, possibly the best arm strength on the team if he signed.

 

+ SS's have the strongest arm's in ball aside from some OF's/3B, usually.

[max silver]

Those terms likely went out the window a while ago. We'll see...

 

Generally the guys that have signed up to this point have exceeded expectations. It will be interesting to see if that continues or if the second tier guys are going to end up being squeezed quite a bit.

[Spanky99]

Generally the guys that have signed up to this point have exceeded expectations. It will be interesting to see if that continues or if the second tier guys are going to end up being squeezed quite a bit.

 

It's a 1 or 2 year festivus, I have no clue!

[Scion]

I simply think that Seager is a better player at this point of his career than Gregorius is and offers higher upside. I have strong suspicions that Gregorius is going to see his production tank as he was likely the recipient of good extremely good fortune in 2020.

 

There is nothing in his profile that suggests that he is the recipient of good fortune, and if you take out his injury plagued 2019 he has been an above average hitting SS 3 years in a row. He is also a beast athlete who is more conscientious with diet and exercise than anyone I know. I'd bet on him aging well.

[Ziggyy108]

I would f***ing love Didi at 3B for this team. He is a great fit.

[max silver]

There is nothing in his profile that suggests that he is the recipient of good fortune, and if you take out his injury plagued 2019 he has been an above average hitting SS 3 years in a row. He is also a beast athlete who is more conscientious with diet and exercise than anyone I know. I'd bet on him aging well.

 

Gregorius batted ball statistics took a turn for the worse in 2020. He posted a career worst average exit velocity, placing him in the lower 2 percentile range in all of MLB, and produced the lowest maximum exit velocity of his career since they started measuring it. He had a rough 2019 season, only producing an 83 WRC+. In many ways his batted ball numbers in 2020 were worse than 2019, with less hard contact and more weak contact. His xWOBA in 2019 was .297 vs actual of .298, whereas in 2020 his xWOBA was .298, but his actual was .342. His poor 2019 numbers, combined with the weak batted ball profile suggests there's a good possibility that his more favorable 2020 results are just as likely to be replaced with his bad 2019 results. He's outperformed his expected statistics in the past, and he's never been a Statcast darling to say the least, but much of his success seems to be based on continuing to squeak enough balls over the fence for homeruns in order to see some success at the plate. If the power slips in the slightest you are left with an expensive slap hitting backup infielder. With the lower max EV and average EV it's possible that's already started to happen.

 

Gregorius would fit just fine on this team, my original point was that I don't find that he's an exciting potential pickup compared to other players that are available, basically anybody that can even provide above replacement value at third base is an improvement on what they've received the last two seasons. I would like to see the front office aim higher, if there are better quality players available that fit within the budget I'd prefer they exhaust those avenues first. The club is at the point where each added win to the roster becomes very meaningful.

[Scion]

Gregorius batted ball statistics took a turn for the worse in 2020. He posted a career worst average exit velocity, placing him in the lower 2 percentile range in all of MLB, and produced the lowest maximum exit velocity of his career since they started measuring it. He had a rough 2019 season, only producing an 83 WRC+. In many ways his batted ball numbers in 2020 were worse than 2019, with less hard contact and more weak contact. His xWOBA in 2019 was .297 vs actual of .298, whereas in 2020 his xWOBA was .298, but his actual was .342. His poor 2019 numbers, combined with the weak batted ball profile suggests there's a good possibility that his more favorable 2020 results are just as likely to be replaced with his bad 2019 results. He's outperformed his expected statistics in the past, and he's never been a Statcast darling to say the least, but much of his success seems to be based on continuing to squeak enough balls over the fence for homeruns in order to see some success at the plate. If the power slips in the slightest you are left with an expensive slap hitting backup infielder. With the lower max EV and average EV it's possible that's already started to happen.

 

Gregorius would fit just fine on this team, my original point was that I don't find that he's an exciting potential pickup compared to other players that are available, basically anybody that can even provide above replacement value at third base is an improvement on what they've received the last two seasons. I would like to see the front office aim higher, if there are better quality players available that fit within the budget I'd prefer they exhaust those avenues first. The club is at the point where each added win to the roster becomes very meaningful.

 

You should ignore his 2019 season, and frankly the second half of 2018. His elbow issues were so bad he literally changed his arm angle on throws to 1B. That impacted him significantly even after TJS, I know this because I know the player. As for exit velocity he has never been someone who grades particularly well in that category, he has a career 85.9 and his xWOBA has generally hovered around .300 in every year but his career year in 2018. It hasn't stopped him from being an above average hitter by wRC+ in 3 of the last 4 years.

 

The reason I believe in him moving forward, aside from the obvious bias is that he is healthy, and he has improved consistently on his already strong K%. The BB% will always leave something to be desired because he is an aggressive hitter philosophically, but the rest of the package combined with the defense is still very desirable IMO.

[Spanky99]

You know Didi.... neat.

 

Is he signing from their, lol.

[Ryu In My House]

Common sense.

 

AKA - Spider sense. Got it.

[Ryu In My House]

+ SS's have the strongest arm's in ball aside from some OF's/3B, usually.

 

And catchers. And pitchers. Essentially, everyone but the CF, 2B and 1B position.

 

Also, you don't say? I know which positions generally have stronger arms, meat. I wasn't asking for you to explain the ABCs of baseball. I was wanting an actual source for your posit; metrics, comparing Cavan's arm to Didi's. Because both players could conceivably play 2B or 3B if Didi is signed.

 

You could have just said "because I guess he does" and be done with it. Or actually supply a "source".

[Laika]

And catchers. And pitchers. Essentially, everyone but the CF, 2B and 1B position.

 

Also, you don't say? I know which positions generally have stronger arms, meat. I wasn't asking for you to explain the ABCs of baseball. I was wanting an actual source for your posit; metrics, comparing Cavan's arm to Didi's. Because both players could conceivably play 2B or 3B if Didi is signed.

 

You could have just said "because I guess he does" and be done with it. Or actually supply a "source".

 

I don't think statcast publishes arm strength for all fielders. Perhaps just outfielders/catchers, where it's easier to get consistent top end readings (infielders are almost always throwing off balance, on the run, etc.)

 

It seems absurd to think that Didi and Biggio would be even close, though.

 

https://www.mlb.com/video/statcast-gregorius-laser-throw-c1035872983

 

I do think this idea that Biggio has a noodle arm is stupid and I don't know where it comes from.

 

It's possible that Gregorius' TJS took a bit of his arm strength, I guess? But that generally bounces back.

[G-Snarls]

Jim Bowden, Steve Phillips and Eduardo Perez were talking Jays this morning on MLB Network so I called in. I graded the off season a B+ so far. We agreed to go hard after Bower and/or trade for 3B/SP package to make the off season an A. They disagreed (and I knew they would) when I suggested I prefer Montoyo as a bench coach and to bring in Francona when he's free to leave the Indians LOL. Man, the radio and TV guys seem to really like Charlie. FWIW they always seemed to love Gibby too and so did I, especially the second go round. Edited January 22, 2021 by G-Snarls

[Laika]

Team really needs some bankable SP depth now. You can't sign George Springer and then just hope your thin/mediocre rotation stays healthy AND bounces back. That's some Angels loserthink. Two pitchers, please. I'll even live if one of them is Taijuan Walker.

[G-Snarls]

Team really needs some bankable SP depth now. You can't sign George Springer and then just hope your thin/mediocre rotation stays healthy AND bounces back. That's some Angels loserthink. Two pitchers, please. I'll even live if one of them is Taijuan Walker.

 

Yeah

 

We can't even count on full healthy seasons from our #1 guy

 

That's not good. I do like that we will have BP guys who can start like Stripling and Chatwood. And there is upside with Pearson and Ray but also risk.

 

But we need at least one and pref 2 more starters

 

Bauer just makes that whole rotation safer and better

[wilko]

If the Jays sign Gregorius, I can't wait to hear Buck have an aneurysm everytime he tries to pronounce it.