Around Baseball 2020

[connorp]

What could the Jays have offered? Manoah, Jansen + 2 top 20? I think I make that trade.

 

Manoah = Wilcox

Apparently Hunt is similar to milb Jansen per the wise guys here

So you have to match up Patino- closest would be Pearson, if it was SWR Tampa prob prefers SD deal

[Laika]

I think Manoah has to be worth more than Wilcox.

Moreno probably worth more than Hunt.

 

Moreno + Manoah + SWR might be comparable to Patino + Wilcox + Hunt, all things considered.

[connorp]

I think Manoah has to be worth more than Wilcox.

Moreno probably worth more than Hunt.

 

Moreno + Manoah + SWR might be comparable to Patino + Wilcox + Hunt, all things considered.

 

Preference I guess. You can have two packages of equal-ish value but may prefer the one with guy with highest upside (Patino) and lesser 2nd and 3rd pieces. I would anyway

[Laika]

Preference I guess. You can have two packages of equal-ish value but may prefer the one with guy with highest upside (Patino) and lesser 2nd and 3rd pieces. I would anyway

 

Yes, everyone *should* prefer the package with the rarer singular talent, because that player is harder to get. It's not comparatively hard to get a player like Hunt or Wilcox, right.

[Grant77]

Yes, everyone *should* prefer the package with the rarer singular talent, because that player is harder to get. It's not comparatively hard to get a player like Hunt or Wilcox, right.

 

We see teams trade competitive balance picks that are valued similarly to Wilcox in fairly minor trades.

[Carlos Danger]

We see teams trade competitive balance picks that are worth more than Wilcox in fairly minor trades.

 

Is a competitive balance pick worth more than a top 11-20 ranked player in the NDP in a 30 team league?

[Grant77]

Is a competitive balance pick worth more than a top 11-20 ranked player in the NDP in a 30 team league?

 

I edited my statement after seeing his bonus amount. The value is less than a million dollars different than a competitive balance A pick, not to mention the fact that he was taken in the third round.

 

Regardless, we do see those picks traded in relatively minor deals from time to time. The value surely isn't as high as fans assign to them.

[Carlos Danger]

I edited my statement after seeing his bonus amount. The value is less than a million dollars different than a competitive balance A pick, not to mention the fact that he was taken in the third round.

 

Regardless, we do see those picks traded in relatively minor deals from time to time. The value surely isn't as high as fans assign to them.

 

The ONLY reason Wilcox was taken third round was signability and has nothing to do with talent level. The Nationals had picked him out of high school and he went to UGA. Ranking sites had him a between 11 and 20 first round as far as talent. Many project him as a future top 30 prospect. The bonus was huge and a record to reflect the fact they were signing a 1st round talent with a 3rd rnd pick.

[BTS]

My initial reaction was that is was a poor deal for TB. But I've warmed to it quite a bit.

[metafour]

I edited my statement after seeing his bonus amount. The value is less than a million dollars different than a competitive balance A pick, not to mention the fact that he was taken in the third round.

 

Regardless, we do see those picks traded in relatively minor deals from time to time. The value surely isn't as high as fans assign to them.

 

Wilcox signed for $3.3 million which falls in between the slot values of the 19th and 20th overall picks in the 2020 draft. He was seen as a 1st round talent both times that he was draft eligible - out of HS, and this past season.

 

He is worth considerably more than whatever a competitive balance pick brings back.

[Grant77]

The ONLY reason Wilcox was taken third round was signability and has nothing to do with talent level. The Nationals had picked him out of high school and he went to UGA. Ranking sites had him a between 11 and 20 first round as far as talent. Many project him as a future top 30 prospect. The bonus was huge and a record to reflect the fact they were signing a 1st round talent with a 3rd rnd pick.

 

His overall bonus was less than a million dollars away from a competitive balance A pick and he was taken with a 3rd round pick, which also narrows that gap considerably. The placement of a pick has it's own value, separate from the slot.

 

I get what you are saying, but MLB teams unquestionably didn't value him between 11 and 20 or they would have approached his selection differently.

 

The best proxy we have for are these trades for similarly valued picks.

[Pendleton]

The return seems sufficient but I don't understand the initial reaction that it's somehow a great haul for Tampa. If you are moving a pitcher of Snell's caliber on that contract, you had better receive at least one young blue chipper like Patino. Mejia has some name value but will soon run out of shine if he doesn't hit at the big league level. A lot will need to go right for this to be any sort of coup for the Rays, but it seems just about right in line with what should have been expected for a return on Snell.

[metafour]

I get what you are saying, but MLB teams unquestionably didn't value him between 11 and 20 or they would have approached his selection differently.

 

This is conjecture and not proof of anything. Wilcox was still a Sophomore and already had set a precedent on how he would handle negotiations when he turned down a LOT of money out of HS. His price tag was known which is why he fell to the 3rd round - the fact that he still got paid Top 20 money proves what his actual "worth" is. You also aren't taking into account the scaling in terms of MLB draft value when you try to downplay by stating that the difference is only "less than a million dollars". First off, the very first Comp A pick was valued at $2.365 million which is basically $1 mill less than his bonus. The last Comp A pick was worth $1.999 mill which ias now $1.3 million less. That is a significant difference in value - kind of like how a Top 10 pick is worth considerably more than the 20th pick.

[Grant77]

Now the Padres are deep in talks for Darvish and perhaps Contreras as well.

 

I don't know what to make of AJ Preller, but I certainly enjoy following along with his moves.

[Grant77]

This is conjecture and not proof of anything. Wilcox was still a Sophomore and already had set a precedent on how he would handle negotiations when he turned down a LOT of money out of HS. His price tag was known which is why he fell to the 3rd round - the fact that he still got paid Top 20 money proves what his actual "worth" is. You also aren't taking into account the scaling in terms of MLB draft value when you try to downplay by stating that the difference is only "less than a million dollars". First off, the very first Comp A pick was valued at $2.365 million which is basically $1 mill less than his bonus. The last Comp A pick was worth $1.999 mill which ias now $1.3 million less. That is a significant difference in value - kind of like how a Top 10 pick is worth considerably more than the 20th pick.

 

His worth to teams is a combination of what he got paid and where he was picked. No amount of speculation on your part will change my views on that.

 

Maybe he ends up being a good pick, maybe a bad one, but teams valued him at best as a late first rounder. That's extremely obvious.

[Grant77]

A rotation of Darvish, Snell, Clevinger, Lamet, Paddack/Gore/Davies for the next 3 years has to be scary, even for the Dodgers.

[Carlos Danger]

Just goes to show with with the Kim signing that the Blue Jays rumors are 60% BS.. It really seems like we are just being used as leverage... I would have low expectations and then we can be pleasantly surprised..

[saskjayfan]

The Padres are starting to piss me off! I really thought the Jays were going to get Kim. Ok, that path is dead. Atkins, so something now!

[saskjayfan]

A rotation of Darvish, Snell, Clevinger, Lamet, Paddack/Gore/Davies for the next 3 years has to be scary, even for the Dodgers.

 

I feel like Gore will be traded if they get Darvish.

[Jimcanuck]

Preller blowing his wad and shortening his contention window might haunt him.

[Jays24]

Just goes to show with with the Kim signing that the Blue Jays rumors are 60% BS.. It really seems like we are just being used as leverage... I would have low expectations and then we can be pleasantly surprised..

 

If the major free agents really wanted to be in Toronto, I'm sure they would have already signed here by now. We're the ugly girl that no one wants to take home until the lights turn on and you say f*** it lol.

[Orgfiller]

I feel like Gore will be traded if they get Darvish.

 

Not necessarily. Snell is more valuable than Darvish and they didn't give him up. I think they can get it done with some combination of Cronenworth, Campusano, Ryan Weathers and one of their 2019 or 2020 first round picks as the headliners. Their farm system has quickly thinned out considerably though.

[Scion]

If the major free agents really wanted to be in Toronto, I'm sure they would have already signed here by now. We're the ugly girl that no one wants to take home until the lights turn on and you say f*** it lol.

 

You realize that none of the major free agents have signed, right?

[metafour]

His worth to teams is a combination of what he got paid and where he was picked. No amount of speculation on your part will change my views on that.

 

Sure, but you're now dumbing the draft process down into a binary equation which is entirely silly. Teams operate within varying parameters and those parameters were exaggerated this past year due to COVID. There are teams in MLB who do not deal at all with "hard sign" players even in normal years, and the overall theme of the entire 2020 draft was that "risk" was given even more scrutiny than it normally does. What ended up happening is that Wilcox spooked a lot of teams by holding his opportunistic bargaining power in a year wherein most teams wanted SAFE easy signings - including several teams that don't like being spooked even a little bit. Thus, he ultimately fell and got paid his market WORTH by an aggressive team. This is what almost always happens in situations like this when a top talent chooses to play hardball. The theme of the 2020 draft was "under-slot" - and Wilcox didn't fit into that theme at all.

 

Maybe he ends up being a good pick, maybe a bad one, but teams valued him at best as a late first rounder. That's extremely obvious.

 

He was valued by one of the best drafting/talent acquiring teams in the league at $3.3 million which pegged him as a 19th/20th overall talent. This is considerably out of the range of the value of a competitive balance A pick either way, so I'm not really sure what your argument is. $1+ million in terms of draft bonus is a bigger jump than you make it out to be.

[metafour]

I feel like Gore will be traded if they get Darvish.

 

34 year old Yu Darvish isn't getting them Gore. Yeah right.

[saskjayfan]

Not necessarily. Snell is more valuable than Darvish and they didn't give him up. I think they can get it done with some combination of Cronenworth, Campusano, Ryan Weathers and one of their 2019 or 2020 first round picks as the headliners. Their farm system has quickly thinned out considerably though.

 

Cronenworth could be really good piece. Late bloomer, but 6 years of Cronenworth could be perceived with a ton of value by the cubs. They probably can get it done without Gore, but yeah, they will have thinned out their farm to a large degree. If you still have your top 2 prospects after it's all said and done, that's pretty nice work.

[Jays24]

You realize that none of the major free agents have signed, right?

 

Of course lol. I just meant the comment as a jab as to why no major free agents have signed. We are showing ourselves as a main option for most of these guys and they're still hoping the hot girl shows up.

[saskjayfan]

34 year old Yu Darvish isn't getting them Gore. Yeah right.

 

You're right. It was a flippant response. I was just thinking what do they have left to get Darvish? Wasn't even thinking about Cronenworth. Plus I really like Darvish. I think Darvish is going to be a cy young contender for the next 3 years. A tick up in velocity and better command for Darvish is a scary thought. Darvish might be the fine wine of pitching. He could be getting better with age.

[Jimcanuck]

You're right. It was a flippant response. I was just thinking what do they have left to get Darvish? Wasn't even thinking about Cronenworth. Plus I really like Darvish. I think Darvish is going to be a cy young contender for the next 3 years. A tick up in velocity and better command for Darvish is a scary thought. Darvish might be the fine wine of pitching. He could be getting better with age.

 

With his history, Darvish is more likely to be dead armed out of baseball by the end of 2022, aged 36.

[G-Snarls]

Wow

 

Padres might be getting Kim and Snell AND trying for Darvish?!?!

 

I'm thinking maybe they were working on a trade for Snell and Darvish but only planned one or the other.