Offseason Roster Thread 2019-2020

[Pendleton]

Might have been posted already but Socrates Brito signed with Pittsburgh, minor league deal + invite to ST.

[Pendleton]

I'm listening to Shapiro on Tim and Sid, he's so well spoken.

 

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/mark-shapiro-on-blue-jays-offseason.html

 

Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro joined Sportsnet’s Tim and Sid to discuss the state of the team’s offseason efforts. He emphasized that “there’s still a good amount of offseason left” and suggested further additions are yet to come.

 

Shapiro acknowledged that the market has driven salaries higher than anticipated. In response, the club has “adjusted our threshold on players and gone … a certain percentage higher than we thought we would go.”

 

That still hasn’t resulted in any major additions, with Shapiro explaining that a variety of circumstances have kept the Jays from locking up certain targets. One particular challenge, he suggested, lies in convincing players of the team’s readiness to win games. That seems to present a bit of a chicken/egg dilemma, though obviously the organization hopes that its on-field output will improve from within as well as benefiting from new additions.

 

So what of the hoped for “significant additions”? Shapiro says the club has “already added” — a nod to the still-unofficial Tanner Roark and Shun Yamaguchi additions — and is “not done this winter.” (Shapiro suggests the club values Yamaguchi for his ability to provide rotation depth and “upside out of the pen.” ) But Shapiro acknowledged it’s less likely now than it once was that the club will install one major player, though he made clear he’s still holding out hope.

 

Shapiro asks that the organization be judged at the end of the winter and based upon the entirety of the roster movement that occurs. He believes there’ll be “significant” improvement by that standard when camp opens in the spring.

 

But Shapiro also left some unmistakable warnings not to expect too much. He cited the need to maintain “future flexibility” for a hoped-for “window of opportunity,” explaining that the organization must “grudgingly approach giving up that flexibility.” And when asked about potentially adding to the position-player mix, Shapiro used the opportunity to explain why the organization is hesitant to “give up” on certain players, proffering Teoscar Hernandez and Derek Fisher as examples.

[glory]

[TheHurl]

 

most boring announcement ever.

[glory]

most boring announcement ever.

 

Yet incredibly fitting for Tanner Roark. Boring all the way around.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Band aid. If the Jays are going to use up payroll space over a 3-4 year period, then it should be for a player they really like, not someone like Keuchel who is likely a stopgap himself and not a difference maker. Another option would be to trade for someone who another team wants to move for salary reasons and doesn't take much to acquire.

 

With this in mind, I don't want to blow a load on stopgaps when we have some pitchers on the active roster and minors who may outperform older vets like Keuchel.

 

For example, Anthony Kay. I really like him and I think he will be a very effective SP for the Jays. In fact, I will say that he may have the same WAR as Keuchel by season's end if given 30 starts.

 

I would rather blow some money on offense, like a difference maker 1B/DH (Josh Donaldson...someone like that) or a 5-tool OF.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

most boring announcement ever.

 

But he can be viewed as a placeholder for guys like SWR or Pearson.

 

If he starts off really well, I would trade him at the deadline.

[G-Snarls]

most boring announcement ever.

 

Had it been 14M and 10M would have blown my f'n mind tho

[The Iceman]

He is the epitome of corporate speak/being a politician... but like a politician, lot's of BS and no action/results.

 

Under the Shapiro guidance the team has the largest drop in attendance two years ago. And that worked out so well they were again the largest drop in attendance a second year in a row last season.

Not easy to do.

 

We have a crappy puppet GM, meh Manager that would be a good bench boss but not as a Manager.

So fans are going away faster than in any other city and players do not want to take their money to play here.

Crappy on field, crappy off field.

 

Other than that he has bad hair.

[Terminator]

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/mark-shapiro-on-blue-jays-offseason.html

 

Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro joined Sportsnet’s Tim and Sid to discuss the state of the team’s offseason efforts. He emphasized that “there’s still a good amount of offseason left” and suggested further additions are yet to come.

 

Shapiro acknowledged that the market has driven salaries higher than anticipated. In response, the club has “adjusted our threshold on players and gone … a certain percentage higher than we thought we would go.”

 

That still hasn’t resulted in any major additions, with Shapiro explaining that a variety of circumstances have kept the Jays from locking up certain targets. One particular challenge, he suggested, lies in convincing players of the team’s readiness to win games. That seems to present a bit of a chicken/egg dilemma, though obviously the organization hopes that its on-field output will improve from within as well as benefiting from new additions.

 

So what of the hoped for “significant additions”? Shapiro says the club has “already added” — a nod to the still-unofficial Tanner Roark and Shun Yamaguchi additions — and is “not done this winter.” (Shapiro suggests the club values Yamaguchi for his ability to provide rotation depth and “upside out of the pen.” ) But Shapiro acknowledged it’s less likely now than it once was that the club will install one major player, though he made clear he’s still holding out hope.

 

Shapiro asks that the organization be judged at the end of the winter and based upon the entirety of the roster movement that occurs. He believes there’ll be “significant” improvement by that standard when camp opens in the spring.

 

But Shapiro also left some unmistakable warnings not to expect too much. He cited the need to maintain “future flexibility” for a hoped-for “window of opportunity,” explaining that the organization must “grudgingly approach giving up that flexibility.” And when asked about potentially adding to the position-player mix, Shapiro used the opportunity to explain why the organization is hesitant to “give up” on certain players, proffering Teoscar Hernandez and Derek Fisher as examples.

 

We are going to be terrible again this year aren't we?

[saskjayfan]

We are going to be terrible again this year aren't we?

 

that's the plan though, so it's ok.

[Grant77]

We are going to be terrible again this year aren't we?

 

A couple of interesting parts of that interview were not mentioned. He said they really wanted Kyle Gibson, but he would only go to Texas. They also made offers in excess of 100 million to players this offseason.

[Jimcanuck]

We are going to be terrible again this year aren't we?

 

I don't think the present team is 95 loss level terrible, but would finish under .500 IMO

[Orgfiller]

We are going to be terrible again this year aren't we?

 

If by terrible you mean under .500 then yeah very likely. I don't think we'll be bottom feeders again who are an embarrassment every other game like much of last season. Shapiro himself said he thinks we've added or will add around 10 wins at least by the time the offseason is finished, which is a lot more digestible than what we witnessed this past year.

[saskjayfan]

A couple of interesting parts of that interview were not mentioned. He said they really wanted Kyle Gibson, but he would only go to Texas. They also made offers in excess of 100 million to players this offseason.

 

He said they indicated to agents a willingness to exceed 100 million. He didn't say they made offers in excess of 100 million. They did their due diligence on Cole and Strasburg, so they would have indicated a willingness to exceed 100 mil on those guys.

[saskjayfan]

I thought they were going to sign a first baseman, but I wouldn't be shocked if they didn't after hearing shapiro. I think the off season is done, outside of signing an arm or two for the bullpen. There's an outside shot of us getting Ryu, but I highly doubt it. We're pretty much done.

[Terminator]

If by terrible you mean under .500 then yeah very likely. I don't think we'll be bottom feeders again who are an embarrassment every other game like much of last season. Shapiro himself said he thinks we've added or will add around 10 wins at least by the time the offseason is finished, which is a lot more digestible than what we witnessed this past year.

 

Do you believe Shapiro when he says that?

 

We may improve by 10 wins (which takes us to a whopping 77) but it isn't due to anything the FO has or probably will do. Roark, Anderson and the Japanese guy might not produce more WAR than Stroman did in 21 starts last year. Any improvement at this point is almost entirely due to young players improving.

 

There is still time to improve the team but there are maybe a handful of FAs that would actually make a difference. We'll see if they actually use prospect capital to improve the team but that's a lot trickier for a franchise whose true window of contention is probably more next year or the year after.

 

I'll gladly eat my shorts if they do something though. There is still time. I just don't think they will.

[Orgfiller]

I thought they were going to sign a first baseman, but I wouldn't be shocked if they didn't after hearing shapiro. I think the off season is done, outside of signing an arm or two for the bullpen. There's an outside shot of us getting Ryu, but I highly doubt it. We're pretty much done.

 

That's what you got out of the interview? If anything I understood that they really don't value Tellez at all, as Shapiro seemed to deflect questions when asked about him, obviously in an effort to not throw Rowdy under the bus. Their pursuit of Tsutsugo and Moustakas earlier would certainly indicate that they want to upgrade, and rumours have us in on Smoak and Edwin.

[Orgfiller]

Do you believe Shapiro when he says that?

 

We may improve by 10 wins (which takes us to a whopping 77) but it isn't due to anything the FO has or probably will do. Roark, Anderson and the Japanese guy might not produce more WAR than Stroman did in 21 starts last year. Any improvement at this point is almost entirely due to young players improving.

 

There is still time to improve the team but there are maybe a handful of FAs that would actually make a difference. We'll see if they actually use prospect capital to improve the team but that's a lot trickier for a franchise whose true window of contention is probably more next year or the year after.

 

I'll gladly eat my shorts if they do something though. There is still time. I just don't think they will.

 

You don't think Roark and Anderson significantly upgrade the floor of the rotation? Sure Stroman was very good and we're not replacing him, but the garbage that was Aaron Sanchez, Edwin Jackson, Feireband, etc. has clearly been diminished and replaced by guys who at least could make up part of a major league rotation, even if not a good one. 300 innings of Roark and Anderson would probably add 5 wins alone even if they're just perfectly mediocre.

[saskjayfan]

That's what you got out of the interview? If anything I understood that they really don't value Tellez at all, as Shapiro seemed to deflect questions when asked about him, obviously in an effort to not throw Rowdy under the bus. Their pursuit of Tsutsugo and Moustakas earlier would certainly indicate that they want to upgrade, and rumours have us in on Smoak and Edwin.

 

I think they would have signed the right guy, but Shapiro said we have more bodies than at bats. I think we'll see Drury and McKinney play some first base and they will rotate the DH. I wouldn't be shocked if they signed a first baseman. It just a sense and gut feeling I have right now based on his comments.

[Key22]

The reality is this team is 2 years away from beginning any sort of a run. 2020 is about finding out if Vlad is the next Frank Thomas or the Next Travis Snider. There are doubts about Bichette as his minor league numbers were weaker than Brett Lawrie - Lawrie also came out of the gates looking like and all-star that lasted about 5 minutes.

 

Lourdes looks good but seems fragile and can't take a walk. Jansen was supposed to be a major bat and has frankly stunk in the box. They could all be great - but 2020 will be the year to find out. Shapiro also included Fisher as an example of someone they think can be really good but has yet to really show it. So yes lots of potential - now it needs to turn into actual on field results.

 

So of course the Jays are only looking at 1 and 2 year commitments and stand in sort of players.

 

Athletes want to win - the Jays are at least 2 and probably 4 years away from that and they're playing in the toughest division. So if you are a player who wants to win - you're not signing with the Jays if another team offers you 80% the contract the Jays are offering.

 

People get mad at the front office but a 67 win team with a bunch of unproven young players a near league worst rotation and pen (the best of which you're likely trading) and you expect them to come here. Shapiro noted too he doesn't just want players who will sign here just for the money but that actually want to be here.

 

Ryu is a pipe-dream. $80m/4 - I seriously doubt the Jays get anywhere near that. They'll probably offer $51m/3 at best. And that doesn't move the needle. We'd be a slightly better 4th place team. The only reason I say we should try and land a higher level pitcher is the "just in case' factor. If Jansen hits, Bichette is the nest short stop version of Altuve, Vlad becomes Trout at the plate, Biggio becomes a 6 war player - then all of a sudden the team is suddenly a great offensive team and has no pitching to support it. If you have a very respectable pitching staff - you can make some noise.

[Jimcanuck]

The reality is this team is 2 years away from beginning any sort of a run. 2020 is about finding out if Vlad is the next Frank Thomas or the Next Travis Snider. There are doubts about Bichette as his minor league numbers were weaker than Brett Lawrie - Lawrie also came out of the gates looking like and all-star that lasted about 5 minutes.

 

Lourdes looks good but seems fragile and can't take a walk. Jansen was supposed to be a major bat and has frankly stunk in the box. They could all be great - but 2020 will be the year to find out. Shapiro also included Fisher as an example of someone they think can be really good but has yet to really show it. So yes lots of potential - now it needs to turn into actual on field results.

 

So of course the Jays are only looking at 1 and 2 year commitments and stand in sort of players.

 

Athletes want to win - the Jays are at least 2 and probably 4 years away from that and they're playing in the toughest division. So if you are a player who wants to win - you're not signing with the Jays if another team offers you 80% the contract the Jays are offering.

 

People get mad at the front office but a 67 win team with a bunch of unproven young players a near league worst rotation and pen (the best of which you're likely trading) and you expect them to come here. Shapiro noted too he doesn't just want players who will sign here just for the money but that actually want to be here.

 

Ryu is a pipe-dream. $80m/4 - I seriously doubt the Jays get anywhere near that. They'll probably offer $51m/3 at best. And that doesn't move the needle. We'd be a slightly better 4th place team. The only reason I say we should try and land a higher level pitcher is the "just in case' factor. If Jansen hits, Bichette is the nest short stop version of Altuve, Vlad becomes Trout at the plate, Biggio becomes a 6 war player - then all of a sudden the team is suddenly a great offensive team and has no pitching to support it. If you have a very respectable pitching staff - you can make some noise.

 

tldr - anything can happen in 2020

[Terminator]

You don't think Roark and Anderson significantly upgrade the floor of the rotation? Sure Stroman was very good and we're not replacing him, but the garbage that was Aaron Sanchez, Edwin Jackson, Feireband, etc. has clearly been diminished and replaced by guys who at least could make up part of a major league rotation, even if not a good one. 300 innings of Roark and Anderson would probably add 5 wins alone even if they're just perfectly mediocre.

 

Significantly upgraded from last year? No, not really. And definitely not the 10 wins Shapiro claims the FO has added lol.

 

Stroman gave us 3 WAR and Steamer doesn't think both Roark and Anderson combined will do that. Anderson is probably better than Steamer gives him credit, but still, we added 2 backend SPs who project pretty poorly for 21 mil AAV, while losing 2/3 of a season of a legit #2 SP. That's not exactly groundbreaking improvement.

[BTS]

Significantly upgraded from last year? No, not really. And definitely not the 10 wins Shapiro claims the FO has added lol.

 

Stroman gave us 3 WAR and Steamer doesn't think both Roark and Anderson combined will do that. Anderson is probably better than Steamer gives him credit, but still, we added 2 backend SPs who project pretty poorly for 21 mil AAV, while losing 2/3 of a season of a legit #2 SP. That's not exactly groundbreaking improvement.

 

It's also likely that Giles is subtracted from the pen.

 

I agree with you: any improvement we see will come from the young guys establishing themselves.

[Terminator]

It's also likely that Giles is subtracted from the pen.

 

I agree with you: any improvement we see will come from the young guys establishing themselves.

 

The rotation and defense look really really bad even if you consider Roark and Anderson upgrades. So does a bullpen without Giles as you mentioned. We might be the worst run prevention team in the league.

 

Gonna be a rough year unless Atkins has some big things planned for the rest of the offseason but with few viable FAs left it will take prospect capital to do so.

[Brownie19]

that's the plan though, so it's ok.

 

Do you ever stop?

[Laika]

The Rangers are like the opposite of the Blue Jays. They now project to be top ~10 in pitching WAR after stocking the rotation but look at this f***ing lineup:

 

DH - Choo

SS - Andrus

RF - Gallo

CF - Danny Santana????

LF - Willie Calhoun

3B - Nick Solak

2B - Odor

C - Jose Trevino

1B - Ronald Guzman

 

They have one player projected for over 2 WAR (Gallo).

 

Are they really going to go with an all free agent / veteran rotation and then roll out this f***ing lineup?

[saskjayfan]

The rotation and defense look really really bad even if you consider Roark and Anderson upgrades. So does a bullpen without Giles as you mentioned. We might be the worst run prevention team in the league.

 

Gonna be a rough year unless Atkins has some big things planned for the rest of the offseason but with few viable FAs left it will take prospect capital to do so.

 

The problem is we're waiting and seeing how the young kids develop instead of believing in them. Yes, the lawrie's and Snider's are out there and one of these young kids could turn out to be a letdown. Sometimes players eventually become great but it takes a couple years, but lots of guys who are truly great are great from the get go. You look at Soto, Acuna, Lindor, Betts, Trout. They were all studs very quickly. Vlad, Bo, and Cavan could develop very quickly. Gurriel and Hernandez have already had more time. If we come to season's end and we're top 5 in runs scored and bottom 5 in runs allowed in the AL it's going to be bitterly disappointing because we could have addressed the pitching.

 

We should be focused on competing in 2021 at the latest and could have given ourselves a shot this year. I've heard it's going to be 2 more years and even probably 4 more years on this board. Are there really people out there willing to wait 4 more years to grow some balls and make some real moves to compete?

 

We could have traded for Kluber. The salary commitments would have only been 2 years. You sign Ryu and that's 34 to 37 added to payroll. You sign Edwin to a 1 and 10, Betances to a 1 and 10. You could have probably got wood for 1 and 8. Shun would have been 4. That would have brought payroll in the 120 range. You would have had a shot at competing for a wild card. Your only long term commitment would have been Ryu.

 

Instead we added Anderson and Roark and have a payroll sitting in the 80 mil range. We're going to win 75 games assuming the young guys actually develop.

 

If we had spent the money and been aggressive and we got hit with injuries or the young guys didn't take a leap forward we could still be a 75 win team and you spent 40 mil more. That's the kind of thing that gets you fired. You have to have balls to make moves and go for it. The upside is a team that can contend for a playoff spot. A rotation of Kluber, Ryu, Wood, Shoemaker and Thornton with Pearson added in has a tremendous upside, but also has a big downside as well. It's both scary and exciting.

 

We're on path to not making any significant push until 2022. Most of you are tickled pink about this. I'm just more of a risk taker.

[glory]

Reports say the Jays made an offer to Gibson who wanted to play in Texas (this was from Shapiro himself), and I think Davidi mentioned the Jays offered more for Porcello than the Mets did but he's from Jersey and decided to sign for less with NY. It's easy to say "just sign (insert player)", but free agency is a combination of overpaying and the player actually wanting to play here. AA thought it was so hard to attract free agents to Toronto that he traded a zillion prospects for players with free agent contracts, and AA is someone who would actually overpay for a free agent if he wanted him bad enough (not as risk averse as Shatkins).

 

Either way, I don't think the rebuild will last beyond 2020. Next winter, I think the Jays make a real effort to contend. Whether that works or not is a different story, but let's keep in mind this front office wanted to lose games last year. You don't go from outright tanking to blowing your wad in free agency in a span of 12 months unless you have a roster ready for that type of jump. The best plan is to just be opportunistic and improve where you can. If we can sign Ryu, great, but that's probably not happening. Just find the bargains where you can, try to maximize roles, and maximize trade returns. Also, wrap Pearson's arm in bubble wrap.

[Bobthe4th]

Reports say the Jays made an offer to Gibson who wanted to play in Texas (this was from Shapiro himself), and I think Davidi mentioned the Jays offered more for Porcello than the Mets did but he's from Jersey and decided to sign for less with NY. It's easy to say "just sign (insert player)", but free agency is a combination of overpaying and the player actually wanting to play here. AA thought it was so hard to attract free agents to Toronto that he traded a zillion prospects for players with free agent contracts, and AA is someone who would actually overpay for a free agent if he wanted him bad enough (not as risk averse as Shatkins).

 

Either way, I don't think the rebuild will last beyond 2020. Next winter, I think the Jays make a real effort to contend. Whether that works or not is a different story, but let's keep in mind this front office wanted to lose games last year. You don't go from outright tanking to blowing your wad in free agency in a span of 12 months unless you have a roster ready for that type of jump. The best plan is to just be opportunistic and improve where you can. If we can sign Ryu, great, but that's probably not happening. Just find the bargains where you can, try to maximize roles, and maximize trade returns. Also, wrap Pearson's arm in bubble wrap.

 

Yeah fans have no patience, we should just be thankful that it looks like we’ll avoid a full scale tear down with years and years of rebuilding from nothing like Miami or Baltimore fans have to endure.

 

If the majority of the core continues to develop we’ll be in a great position as early as next year. If the majority of the core fails then we wouldn’t be making the playoffs anytime soon even if we had massively overpaid to get the likes of Wheeler and Ryu to come here.