2019 Trade Deadline Thread

[BTS]

Bob - please cite all these big name FA's those teams have signed. I'll start you off. The Cubs signed Heyward and Darvish and the Cardinals signed Fowler. How are those working out for them? Houston signed Brantley to a short term reasonable deal, Braves signed JD to a 1 year deal, Brewers signed Moose for next to nothing.

 

Lester was a huge signing for the Cubs that worked out very well. Houston hasn't signed any major FAs, but did extend Verlander for 2/66 and give Altuve 150M.

 

Most good orgs keep their own stars around. Not retaining Stro is the opposite of how the best orgs typically operate, especially if he's only looking for 5/90 or something.

[Brownie19]

who said I wanted to build through free agency? I'm talking about retaining the players you draft and develop. The last 3 world series winners had payrolls north of 150..that includes the cubs and Astros. The outlier is the Royals who still had a payroll of 130.

 

We are projected to have a payroll under 100 mil in 2 to 3 years. That makes us the Tampa bay Rays. If we have a player we draft and develop and can't keep that makes us the Tampa bay Rays. If we didn't have Gurriel, Gurrero, Bichette, Biggio who are all young exciting prospects who will be paid nothing in 2 years when a Stroman extension kicks in I would say trade and rebuild, but we have some quality controllable prospects. I don't want to push our compete window to 2024.

 

What is our rotation in 2021. We have one guy in Borucki who seems like he might be decent number 3, but he could also be a number 5. Pearson should be here in 2021 and he could very well be a legit number 1 or 2, but if we have no one to pair him with he's Roy Halladay leading a team to decent seasons that fall short. I like the looks of Pearson and Stroman in 2021 a lot better than the unknown. We will have money to take on salary through trade like Huston did with Verlander or sign a guy like the Cubs did with Lester.

 

Sorry - you were suggesting having a GM who doesn't overspend can be a bad thing. Typically - overspending occurs in free agency. Extending your own players typically comes at a lower cost (as there are risk to both sides). Overspending on free agents has been proven over and over again to be the fool's gold approach.

 

Some of you are getting all bent out of shape because the team isn't extending Stroman...when for all you know, he's asking for way too much AAV ($30M+) or too much term (7 or 8 years). Why get all up in arms like our FO is stupid and too conservative when you have no idea what he's asking for?

 

If Shatkins offered him $100M over 5 years (which would be more than fair given the recent signings of similar pitchers) and he rejected and asked for 8 years $220M....and based on that demand, the Jays traded him.....would you fault the FO?

[The Cats Ass]

Bob - please cite all these big name FA's those teams have signed. I'll start you off. The Cubs signed Heyward and Darvish and the Cardinals signed Fowler. How are those working out for them? Houston signed Brantley to a short term reasonable deal, Braves signed JD to a 1 year deal, Brewers signed Moose for next to nothing.

 

By WAR Houston's current 3rd and 4th best batters are Brantley and Gurriel, both FA signed. Their starting catcher and RF are both FA signings. 3rd best starter is Miley who was a FA signing.

 

Just because you don't consider them "big names" doesn't mean they're not important pieces to the team. So there's 5 players on the Astros.

[Brownie19]

Lester was a huge signing for the Cubs that worked out very well. Houston hasn't signed any major FAs, but did extend Verlander for 2/66 and give Altuve 150M.

 

Most good orgs keep their own stars around. Not retaining Stro is the opposite of how the best orgs typically operate, especially if he's only looking for 5/90 or something.

 

Lester - great

Lackey - OK

Heyward - terrible

Darvish - terrible

Kimbrel - undecided

 

This hasn't been an excellent path for the Cubbies

[Brownie19]

By WAR Houston's current 3rd and 4th best batters are Brantley and Gurriel, both FA signed. Their starting catcher and RF are both FA signings. 3rd best starter is Miley who was a FA signing.

 

Just because you don't consider them "big names" doesn't mean they're not important pieces to the team. So there's 5 players on the Astros.

 

I mean - I guess??? The discussion here is on overspending on FA's. Inking Wade Miley to a 1 year $4.5M deal and Robinson Chirinos to a 1 year $5.75M deal don't really count. You could add in the Josh Reddick signing. He was good for 1 year, but is now somewhat of a dud.

 

In general, the Astros have made savy, short term, low risk FA signings. The big one they made was extending Altuve - which they more than likely won't get any excess value out of and may soon regret. We'll see what they do with Cole here...

[devo]

 

[Barkerfan23]

 

Yankees will end up with Synder i am sure, they have propped another one of their paper moon prospects to use at the right time.

[BTS]

Lester - great

Lackey - OK

Heyward - terrible

Darvish - terrible

Kimbrel - undecided

 

This hasn't been an excellent path for the Cubbies

 

- Lester worked out great and was a critical part of some very successful teams.

- Lackey gave them 3.5 fWAR and 5.8 RA-9 WAR while eating up 60 starts for 32M over a 2-year stretch.

- Zobrist gave them 8 fWAR for 56M (possibly less - I'm not sure he's even getting paid this year)

 

Heyward has been a worst-case scenario, as it looks like he'll end the season having provided about 6 fWAR for 76.5M (12-13M per win). I don't feel like calculating what they've paid on the aggregate for these signings, but I'm guessing it's something a bit less than 10M per win.

 

But I think it's worth pointing out that perpetually competitive big-market teams aren't trying to win the $/WAR title. They're trying to win actual baseball games. Cubs are probably going to go to the playoffs for the 5th consecutive year. Over that stretch they have two NLC titles and a World Series championship. They needed the wins they bought on the FA market, even if paying 10M per on the FA isn't ideal. They didn't necessarily have other means of acquiring those wins. I doubt the team or their fans are unhappy with the team's forays into free agency on the aggregate.

[AintNoThang]

You never know about that stuff man. We also though Bautista would age like Ortiz and Cruz and then he fell off a cliff.

 

Bautista only fell off a cliff due to vision issues, remember.

[Todd Van Anus]

From what the Twins execs are saying, it doesn't sound like they are going to make big trades right now.

 

Sounds like Twins are very interested in Jays pitchers.

[Brownie19]

- Lester worked out great and was a critical part of some very successful teams.

- Lackey gave them 3.5 fWAR and 5.8 RA-9 WAR while eating up 60 starts for 32M over a 2-year stretch.

- Zobrist gave them 8 fWAR for 56M (possibly less - I'm not sure he's even getting paid this year)

 

Heyward has been a worst-case scenario, as it looks like he'll end the season having provided about 6 fWAR for 76.5M (12-13M per win). I don't feel like calculating what they've paid on the aggregate for these signings, but I'm guessing it's something a bit less than 10M per win.

 

But I think it's worth pointing out that perpetually competitive big-market teams aren't trying to win the $/WAR title. They're trying to win actual baseball games. Cubs are probably going to go to the playoffs for the 5th consecutive year. Over that stretch they have two NLC titles and a World Series championship. They needed the wins they bought on the FA market, even if paying 10M per on the FA isn't ideal. They didn't necessarily have other means of acquiring those wins. I doubt the team or their fans are unhappy with the team's forays into free agency on the aggregate.

 

Fair....they spend money when it was time to win. We don't know if the Jays will do this or not.

 

Good call on Zobrist - forgot about him, but you didn't mention Darvish. You also didn't factor in how much of a douchebag that Lackey is. That brings his $/WAR up to about $45M/WAR

 

For every Cub's example, there are the Angels and Mets, amongst others who spend a ton and produce nothing. For every team like the Cubbies who spent to prolong their window, there are the Cards who can simply let a HOFer like Pujols walk and carry on.

 

IMO, I think the Jays will spend when the time is right. That's probably in 2021 and thus trading Stro and Giles now to get more top talents who can align with the core is the right move.

[Krylian]

Sounds like Twins are very interested in Jays pitchers.

 

Ante up

[Ray]

Sounds like Twins are very interested in Jays pitchers.

 

Kirilloff and Graterol for Giles and Stroman kind of makes sense if you look at in terms of a value proposition.

 

According to Fangraphs, Kirilloff is a 55 FV prospect and Graterol is a 50 FV prospect. Using Fangraphs prospect valuation chart, that means Kirilloff is worth $46M and Graterol is worth $21M. So that means you're getting back $67M in prospect value.

 

If you can project Giles to be worth 2.5 WAR in the next 1.5 years (possible given his career average), Stroman would have to provide 5 WAR in the next season and a half to really be worth that package at $9M/1 WAR (which is also pretty possible). Not to mention whatever value they end up providing for the 2 postseasons as well, so you might be able to get a 40 FV guy like Gonsalves back in the deal as a throw in.

[Ray]

People expect Stroman to age well because he doesn't rely on velocity. The kid can spin the ball. A 5 year extension would mean Stroman is 34 in his final year. There's risk in every long term extension. Expecting Stroman to put up 3+ wins a season isn't an unreasonable assumption. He's on pace for a 4.5 win season this year. We really need Stroman to spill the beans on what he was looking for so we can have a real discussion.

 

Aging well isn't just about performance. It's also about health and making sure the player can actually stay on the field to provide said value. This is especially true in the case of starting pitchers.

 

Give me the list of Starting Pitchers 5 feet 11 and under who didn't completely fall apart when they entered their 30's. Seriously. It's a very very short list (no-pun intended) and absolutely something to consider when handing out a large extension.

 

Tim Lincecum - 5′ 11″ 170lbs - fell apart at the 1000 inning pitched mark

Fernando Valenzuela - 5′ 11″ 170lbs - 31 WAR from ages 19-27, 3.1 WAR from ages 28-34.

Kris Medlan - 5′ 11″ 190lbs - consistently injured past age 29 (despite being a reliever)

Travis Wood- 5′ 11″ 175lbs - 839 IP (mostly as a starter) from age 23-28, absolutely fell apart afterwards

 

Obviously some of those guys aren't close to Stroman's level, but some are, and Lincecum is especially a cautionary tale that comes to mind (and he was significantly better than Stroman).

 

Pedro is really the only guy who held up from ages 30 and on. The track record isn't great. Cueto and Colon as well, albeit those guys have very large frames.

[Boxcar]

How would you know? You're completely wrong. I can do this all day long man.

 

Because I've talked to people that work in the FO who say Atkins has full autonomy on the baseball side?

[Bobthe4th]

Aging well isn't just about performance. It's also about health and making sure the player can actually stay on the field to provide said value. This is especially true in the case of starting pitchers.

 

Give me the list of Starting Pitchers 5 feet 11 and under who didn't completely fall apart when they entered their 30's. Seriously. It's a very very short list (no-pun intended) and absolutely something to consider when handing out a large extension.

 

Tim Lincecum - 5′ 11″ 170lbs - fell apart at the 1000 inning pitched mark

Fernando Valenzuela - 5′ 11″ 170lbs - 31 WAR from ages 19-27, 3.1 WAR from ages 28-34.

Kris Medlan - 5′ 11″ 190lbs - consistently injured past age 29 (despite being a reliever)

Travis Wood- 5′ 11″ 175lbs - 839 IP (mostly as a starter) from age 23-28, absolutely fell apart afterwards

 

Obviously some of those guys aren't close to Stroman's level, but some are, and Lincecum is especially a cautionary tale that comes to mind (and he was significantly better than Stroman).

 

Pedro is really the only guy who held up from ages 30 and on. The track record isn't great. Cueto and Colon as well, albeit those guys have very large frames.

 

There’s not really a big sample size though so you can’t really make any accurate assumptions.

 

It’s not as simple as he’s short so he’ll have a short career. Not many starters under 6 foot make it, so obviously not many will still be good into their early 30’s.

[Ray]

There’s not really a big sample size though so you can’t really make any accurate assumptions.

 

It’s not as simple as he’s short so he’ll have a short career. Not many starters under 6 foot make it, so obviously not many will still be good into their early 30’s.

 

Correlation doesn't imply causation, but every front office has different models that take every aspect of a player into account when they are considering extensions/free agents. That's one of the primary ways they assess future performance. In this case, they'll likely use a discount factor since the sample size is small, but within that dataset, the track record is still not great. You apply general aging curves to the already short stature he has, and Stroman is fighting an uphill battle to be valuable into his 30's.

 

I'm in the camp where they should absolutely sign him to an extension considered fair for both sides, but if his ask is well over that number, then it doesn't really make sense.

[Bobthe4th]

Correlation doesn't imply causation, but every front office has different models that take every aspect of a player into account when they are considering extensions/free agents. That's one of the primary ways they assess future performance. In this case, they'll likely use a discount factor since the sample size is small, but within that dataset, the track record is still not great. You apply general aging curves to the already short stature he has, and Stroman is fighting an uphill battle to be valuable into his 30's.

 

I'm in the camp where they should absolutely sign him to an extension considered fair for both sides, but if his ask is well over that number, then it doesn't really make sense.

 

Not giving Stroman a five year contract at a reasonable AAV, solely because you’re worried that because he is short for a pitcher he’ll be done when he turns 30, would be stupid.

 

However, it’s entirely justifiable not to give him $20m+ AAV no matter how long the contract.

[Ray]

Not giving Stroman a five year contract at a reasonable AAV, solely because you’re worried that because he is short for a pitcher he’ll be done when he turns 30, would be stupid.

 

However, it’s entirely justifiable not to give him $20m+ AAV no matter how long the contract.

 

No team bases their decisions soley on what models tell them, but I can guarantee you they do put a large amount of emphasis to gather as much information as they can. At least the 2 that I talked to when I interviewed with them.

 

I generally agree though. The upside with Stroman is worth the risk, especially if he starts throwing more of his secondaries. wIf this front office doesn't want to give Stroman $75M over 5 years, they should take a ton of blame. If Stroman is asking for a Patrick Corbin type contract though, I can understand why they're hesitant.

[Bobthe4th]

No team bases their decisions soley on what models tell them, but I can guarantee you they do put a large amount of emphasis to gather as much information as they can. At least the 2 that I talked to when I interviewed with them.

 

I generally agree though. The upside with Stroman is worth the risk, especially if he starts throwing more of his secondaries. wIf this front office doesn't want to give Stroman $75M over 5 years, they should take a ton of blame. If Stroman is asking for a Patrick Corbin type contract though, I can understand why they're hesitant.

 

Yeah if Shatkins aren't willing to offer any extension at all then they should be immediately fired. I can't believe they would be that incompetent.

 

But with all of Stroman's self belief and self hype, does anyone really think he's not asking for ace level money (minimum $20m+ AAV)?

 

It's reasonable that the front office doesn't want to give him $20-25m a year, and we don't know how low Stroman would go, or the maximum Shatkins ideally would pay him ($15m?). If it was such a big difference, then a compromise was always unlikely to be reached and that'd support Stroman's comments on the lack of negotiation.

[Bobthe4th]

6 days left.

 

Giles, Stroman, Smoak, Galvis, Hudson, Sogard, Phelps all on the trade block.

 

It's going to be the most interesting week of the season (at least since Vlad's debut!).

[Ray]

Yeah if Shatkins aren't willing to offer any extension at all then they should be immediately fired. I can't believe they would be that incompetent.

 

But with all of Stroman's self belief and self hype, does anyone really think he's not asking for ace level money (minimum $20m+ AAV)?

 

It's reasonable that the front office doesn't want to give him $20-25m a year, and we don't know how low Stroman would go, or the maximum Shatkins ideally would pay him ($15m?). If it was such a big difference, then a compromise was always unlikely to be reached and that'd support Stroman's comments on the lack of negotiation.

 

I legitimately believe that this front office would actually PREFER to sign Stroman to a long term deal over trading him. Given the need this team has for pitching, locking down a #3 SP for the foreseeable future would go a long way into helping this rebuild. Plus, look at where Atkins and Shapiro come from. The Indians are known for locking down pitchers to team friendly deals as soon as they possibly can, and that was when they had a bottom 5 payroll to work with. The fact that they've come to this market which has a significantly larger budget should afford them the luxury to extend players to lesser team friendly deals and absorb more risk to take on the potential reward (i.e. the Grichuk extension).

 

I don't believe for a second that they want to trade him due to him mouthing off on Twitter or whatever antics he gets up to. I think his off-field stuff is a complete non-factor. What I do think is a factor is Stromans asking price. It might be so outrageously high that it doesn't even make sense to get in the same room since the numbers are so far apart.

[Brownie19]

I legitimately believe that this front office would actually PREFER to sign Stroman to a long term deal over trading him. Given the need this team has for pitching, locking down a #3 SP for the foreseeable future would go a long way into helping this rebuild. Plus, look at where Atkins and Shapiro come from. The Indians are known for locking down pitchers to team friendly deals as soon as they possibly can, and that was when they had a bottom 5 payroll to work with. The fact that they've come to this market which has a significantly larger budget should afford them the luxury to extend players to lesser team friendly deals and absorb more risk to take on the potential reward (i.e. the Grichuk extension).

 

I don't believe for a second that they want to trade him due to him mouthing off on Twitter or whatever antics he gets up to. I think his off-field stuff is a complete non-factor. What I do think is a factor is Stromans asking price. It might be so outrageously high that it doesn't even make sense to get in the same room since the numbers are so far apart.

 

Agreed. Again, why get all pissed at the FO when you have no idea what the circumstances are. If Shatkins offered him $100M over 5 years (which would be more than fair given the recent signings of similar pitchers) and he rejected and asked for 8 years $220M....and based on that demand, the Jays traded him.....would you fault the FO? (yes I'm channeling my inner glory)

[Krylian]

6 days left.

 

Giles, Stroman, Smoak, Galvis, Hudson, Sogard, Phelps all on the trade block.

 

It's going to be the most interesting week of the season (at least since Vlad's debut!).

 

...and until BoBi's debut.

[glory]

Agreed. Again, why get all pissed at the FO when you have no idea what the circumstances are. If Shatkins offered him $100M over 5 years (which would be more than fair given the recent signings of similar pitchers) and he rejected and asked for 8 years $220M....and based on that demand, the Jays traded him.....would you fault the FO? (yes I'm channeling my inner glory)

 

Did you turn back into Brownie and tell yourself that you have mentioned this same point already, therefore are disqualified from ever bringing it up again, even if weeks or months (or years) have passed? That's the real question that needs to be addressed.

 

And I doubt the difference in the two numbers is that much. Even Stroman is not so much of an egomaniac that he's going to want numbers that the market is not seeing. If anything he is probably asking for something similar to what Corbin got (6/140). I doubt the Jays number is any less than 5/80, if it is, then obviously they have no shot.

[glory]

https://nypost.com/2019/07/25/where-yankees-fit-as-marcus-stromans-value-skyrockets/

 

The number of suitors and quality of offers have both increased with recent success and the Blue Jays internally believe they now have a floor with which they are comfortable and that bidding can further increase the potential return in the coming days, making it more and more likely Stroman is dealt before his next scheduled start on Tuesday. The Yankees are not currently perceived as a front-runner. They have not pursued him with the same ardor as J.A. Happ last year and the Blue Jays like other contenders’ farm systems better.

[Ray]

https://nypost.com/2019/07/25/where-yankees-fit-as-marcus-stromans-value-skyrockets/

 

That's great news.

 

Stroman has to be the best starter on the market right now, and theres' a huge glut of contenders desperate for a good SP. Keep driving up that price.

 

Maybe we can convince AA to give us Drew Waters and Kyle Wright for Stroman.

[AintNoThang]

Hmmm, the number of suitors and quality of offers have increased with recent success? And they now have a floor that they're comfortable with, and that bidding can further increase? I do believe I made that point yesterday about Stroman's start. If he pitched a dud yesterday, as in 6+ runs in 3 innings type of start, I think the momentum would be going the other way in talks. I feel vindicated.

[Krylian]

Glad to hear the Yankees aren't front runners

[glory]

Glad to hear the Yankees aren't front runners

 

That's the best news I took out of that.

 

Floor they are comfortable with, offers increasing, and Yankees out of it? Sounds good to me.