2019 Trade Deadline Thread

[Brownie19]

You never know about that stuff man. We also though Bautista would age like Ortiz and Cruz and then he fell off a cliff.

 

Easy with the logic and common sense man. Minds are made up!

[wk680]

You never know about that stuff man. We also though Bautista would age like Ortiz and Cruz and then he fell off a cliff.

 

True but Stroman is 28 years old - just entering his prime. I just wonder if he will 'wear out' faster due to his small stature. It's like how does a little guy like that throw mid 90's same as guys 6+ inches taller. I tend to think he is just a unique specimen. I still agree with the extend him sentiment. I would like to get him for 5/$80M, but I suspect he won't go for that. I wonder if 5/$100M would do it.....

[Bobthe4th]

Easy with the logic and common sense man. Minds are made up!

 

I really don't think a 34 year Bautista is a fair comparison to a 28 year old Stroman when debating whether an extension would provide value.

 

It's besides the point anyway, he's going to be traded as soon as we receive a reasonable offer.

[wk680]

3 or 4 quality pitching prospects that turn into one or two quality pitchers? Maybe we should just extend the known commodities. It would be one thing if we were carrying a ton of bad contracts and didn't have money to spend, but we have a boat load of money to spend.

 

Yeah if the Jays get this thing on track for 2021, Giles and Stroman are both young enough to fit with that timeline. People talk about 'buying pitching', but we need to remember that the Jays remain an unattractive landing spot for free agents (that f***er Kawi didn't help any there either:mad:).

[BTS]

I really don't think a 34 year Bautista is a fair comparison to a 28 year old Stroman when debating whether an extension would provide value.

 

It's besides the point anyway, he's going to be traded as soon as we receive a reasonable offer.

 

Bautista is very much a fair comparison when it comes to the fans' ability to predict who will defy ageing curves based on things like work ethic and skill set. There's no reason to think Stro will age any better than any other ~3-win starter his age with similar arm/shoulder health.

[Bobthe4th]

Yeah if the Jays get this thing on track for 2021, Giles and Stroman are both young enough to fit with that timeline. People talk about 'buying pitching', but we need to remember that the Jays remain an unattractive landing spot for free agents (that f***er Kawi didn't help any there either:mad:).

 

We can always trade for pitchers so that they have no choice, and supplement that with free agents that are willing to sign here.

[glory]

Bautista himself said he would defy aging curves. I don't think fans were expecting him to.

 

Stroman could blow is arm out tomorrow, that's how unpredictable pitchers are, but age 28 and expecting a few more good/3 WAR seasons is not outlandish, IMO.

[wk680]

We can always trade for pitchers so that they have no choice, and supplement that with free agents that are willing to sign here.

 

True, but as with hoping to sign free agents of your choice, easier said than done.

[BTS]

Bautista himself said he would defy aging curves. I don't think fans were expecting him to.

 

Stroman could blow is arm out tomorrow, that's how unpredictable pitchers are, but age 28 and expecting a few more good/3 WAR seasons is not outlandish, IMO.

 

Go back and read posts here when he was still productive. The Cruz and Ortiz comps flowed like Leaf fan tears after a playoff series against Boston. Posters were convinced that his great plate discipline, work ethic, and physical condition would lead to extended productivity into his late 30s, and then it didn't happen at all.

 

I'd actually be quite happy with a Stro extension, but expecting him to age particularly well because of his work ethic is silly.

[wk680]

Go back and read posts here when he was still productive. The Cruz and Ortiz comps flowed like Leaf fan tears after a playoff series against Boston. Posters were convinced that his great plate discipline, work ethic, and physical condition would lead to extended productivity into his late 30s, and then it didn't happen at all.

 

I'd actually be quite happy with a Stro extension, but expecting him to age particularly well because of his work ethic is silly.

 

what is your bottom line on Stroman? I am thinking 5/$100M, starting in 2020. If they get 9-10 WAR out of him, it is at least worth the cost.

[saskjayfan]

Yeah if the Jays get this thing on track for 2021, Giles and Stroman are both young enough to fit with that timeline. People talk about 'buying pitching', but we need to remember that the Jays remain an unattractive landing spot for free agents (that f***er Kawi didn't help any there either:mad:).

 

This has been my thought process the whole time. We have to overpay to get free agents to come here and even overpaying guys may choose to go elsewhere. We have 18 mil committed to payroll in 2021 without a single significant piece even arbitration eligible. Who are we going to convince and pay to come here? If we can get Stroman on a contract that is anywhere close to reasonable we should do it.

 

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-free-agents-for-2020-2021-and-2022-c302396056

 

Who are we going to get. I certainly hope they offer Mookie Betts, Realmuto Cole, Bauer good money, but will any of them really come here. Syndergaard is 3 years away from free agency. Will we land him?

 

Compete in 2022 or 2023 just doesn't do it for me.

[Bobthe4th]

This has been my thought process the whole time. We have to overpay to get free agents to come here and even overpaying guys may choose to go elsewhere. We have 18 mil committed to payroll in 2021 without a single significant piece even arbitration eligible. Who are we going to convince and pay to come here? If we can get Stroman on a contract that is anywhere close to reasonable we should do it.

 

And that right there is the issue. It's clear that the front office has a different valuation to Stroman and his agent on what is close to reasonable.

[saskjayfan]

And that right there is the issue. It's clear that the front office has a different valuation to Stroman and his agent on what is close to reasonable.

 

so go through that free agent list and put a number by a players name that the player would deem fair and our management would deem reasonable. Having a GM that doesn't overspend on the surface is an admirable quality. If you end up having a boatload of money and no quality players what does do for a team. We have to hit on all the prospects we draft and trade for.

 

We are running this team like we're the Rays.

[Krylian]

And that right there is the issue. It's clear that the front office has a different valuation to Stroman and his agent on what is close to reasonable.

 

I'm curious to see what he ends up signing for given this past year of free agency and how contracts appear to be trending.

[saskjayfan]

Go back and read posts here when he was still productive. The Cruz and Ortiz comps flowed like Leaf fan tears after a playoff series against Boston. Posters were convinced that his great plate discipline, work ethic, and physical condition would lead to extended productivity into his late 30s, and then it didn't happen at all.

 

I'd actually be quite happy with a Stro extension, but expecting him to age particularly well because of his work ethic is silly.

 

People expect Stroman to age well because he doesn't rely on velocity. The kid can spin the ball. A 5 year extension would mean Stroman is 34 in his final year. There's risk in every long term extension. Expecting Stroman to put up 3+ wins a season isn't an unreasonable assumption. He's on pace for a 4.5 win season this year. We really need Stroman to spill the beans on what he was looking for so we can have a real discussion.

[BTS]

what is your bottom line on Stroman? I am thinking 5/$100M, starting in 2020. If they get 9-10 WAR out of him, it is at least worth the cost.

 

I don't think the team would regret giving him that. He's a solid SP2 with no current arm or shoulder concerns. Based on recent extensions though (Hendricks, Mikolas) it seems like he'll probably sign for less? 5/90 would be good for both parties I think.

[Brownie19]

so go through that free agent list and put a number by a players name that the player would deem fair and our management would deem reasonable. Having a GM that doesn't overspend on the surface is an admirable quality. If you end up having a boatload of money and no quality players what does do for a team. We have to hit on all the prospects we draft and trade for.

 

We are running this team like we're the Rays.

 

Man - It's been proven over and over that building through FA isn't very successful. You show me the GM that overspends and gets results...

 

 

I suspect you're going to come up with 1 team. Boston. You might be able to argue the Yankees also as they essentially 'bought' Stanton from Miami even though they technically traded for him...but even the Yankees have generally been built from within or through trades (Sev, Didi, Judge, Gardner, Voit, Sanchez, Torres, Frazier)

 

Let's look at the teams we'd love to 'be like'

 

Houston

Dodgers

Cardinals

Cubs?

Brewers?

Braves?

 

Look at the blue print for the best teams in baseball right now man. f*** me.

[Bobthe4th]

I'm curious to see what he ends up signing for given this past year of free agency and how contracts appear to be trending.

 

Can you imagine the backlash if he ended up signing a 4/50 extension somewhere else, haha?

 

TBF if he shines on a team that makes a deep playoff run then he should be able to secure an extension at whatever level he wants.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

You never know about that stuff man. We also though Bautista would age like Ortiz and Cruz and then he fell off a cliff.

 

I am not suggesting a 10-year contract. He is only 28. I would sign a 6-year, though, that covers arb4.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Easy with the logic and common sense man. Minds are made up!

 

Mine isn't. If we trade him for exciting prospects, I am down with that. But he is a really solid SP that wants to play here. two rare commodities at the moment.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Go back and read posts here when he was still productive. The Cruz and Ortiz comps flowed like Leaf fan tears after a playoff series against Boston. Posters were convinced that his great plate discipline, work ethic, and physical condition would lead to extended productivity into his late 30s, and then it didn't happen at all.

 

I'd actually be quite happy with a Stro extension, but expecting him to age particularly well because of his work ethic is silly.

 

How is it silly? Someone who works hard to improve versus, say, a guy like Panda should age better. I'll bet there is a strong correlation. Moreso than most other factors.

[Daniel Labude]

[BTS]

How is it silly? Someone who works hard to improve versus, say, a guy like Panda should age better. I'll bet there is a strong correlation. Moreso than most other factors.

 

You think Stroman works harder than most other pitchers at about his level of ability?

[The Iceman]

Mine isn't. If we trade him for exciting prospects, I am down with that. But he is a really solid SP that wants to play here. two rare commodities at the moment.

 

EXACTLY, so trade him and sign him as a FA to come back.

 

Hopefully AA will be back in charge by then...

[Bobthe4th]

Man - It's been proven over and over that building through FA isn't very successful. You show me the GM that overspends and gets results...

 

 

I suspect you're going to come up with 1 team. Boston. You might be able to argue the Yankees also as they essentially 'bought' Stanton from Miami even though they technically traded for him...but even the Yankees have generally been built from within or through trades (Sev, Didi, Judge, Gardner, Voit, Sanchez, Torres, Frazier)

 

Let's look at the teams we'd love to 'be like'

 

Houston

Dodgers

Cardinals

Cubs?

Brewers?

Braves?

 

Look at the blue print for the best teams in baseball right now man. f*** me.

 

All of those teams have spent significant money on free agents. Baseball has shown us over and over that building internally then adding with assets is the best way to be successful (obv still not a guarantee).

 

Your takeaway should be the best way to build is use a varied strategy. Don’t only rely on prospects, equally don’t only rely on free agents.

[saskjayfan]

Man - It's been proven over and over that building through FA isn't very successful. You show me the GM that overspends and gets results...

 

 

I suspect you're going to come up with 1 team. Boston. You might be able to argue the Yankees also as they essentially 'bought' Stanton from Miami even though they technically traded for him...but even the Yankees have generally been built from within or through trades (Sev, Didi, Judge, Gardner, Voit, Sanchez, Torres, Frazier)

 

Let's look at the teams we'd love to 'be like'

 

Houston

Dodgers

Cardinals

Cubs?

Brewers?

Braves?

 

Look at the blue print for the best teams in baseball right now man. f*** me.

 

who said I wanted to build through free agency? I'm talking about retaining the players you draft and develop. The last 3 world series winners had payrolls north of 150..that includes the cubs and Astros. The outlier is the Royals who still had a payroll of 130.

 

We are projected to have a payroll under 100 mil in 2 to 3 years. That makes us the Tampa bay Rays. If we have a player we draft and develop and can't keep that makes us the Tampa bay Rays. If we didn't have Gurriel, Gurrero, Bichette, Biggio who are all young exciting prospects who will be paid nothing in 2 years when a Stroman extension kicks in I would say trade and rebuild, but we have some quality controllable prospects. I don't want to push our compete window to 2024.

 

What is our rotation in 2021. We have one guy in Borucki who seems like he might be decent number 3, but he could also be a number 5. Pearson should be here in 2021 and he could very well be a legit number 1 or 2, but if we have no one to pair him with he's Roy Halladay leading a team to decent seasons that fall short. I like the looks of Pearson and Stroman in 2021 a lot better than the unknown. We will have money to take on salary through trade like Huston did with Verlander or sign a guy like the Cubs did with Lester.

[L54]

Spend spend spend!!! Spend it all! We can't compete unless we are paying lots of guys FA contract prices!

[saskjayfan]

Spend spend spend!!! Spend it all! We can't compete unless we are paying lots of guys FA contract prices!

 

Are you crazy...we have to be careful with our dollars. We don't have a lot of flexibility in a couple years.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/payroll/2021/

[The Cats Ass]

who said I wanted to build through free agency? I'm talking about retaining the players you draft and develop. The last 3 world series winners had payrolls north of 150..that includes the cubs and Astros. The outlier is the Royals who still had a payroll of 130.

 

We are projected to have a payroll under 100 mil in 2 to 3 years. That makes us the Tampa bay Rays. If we have a player we draft and develop and can't keep that makes us the Tampa bay Rays. If we didn't have Gurriel, Gurrero, Bichette, Biggio who are all young exciting prospects who will be paid nothing in 2 years when a Stroman extension kicks in I would say trade and rebuild, but we have some quality controllable prospects. I don't want to push our compete window to 2024.

 

What is our rotation in 2021. We have one guy in Borucki who seems like he might be decent number 3, but he could also be a number 5. Pearson should be here in 2021 and he could very well be a legit number 1 or 2, but if we have no one to pair him with he's Roy Halladay leading a team to decent seasons that fall short. I like the looks of Pearson and Stroman in 2021 a lot better than the unknown. We will have money to take on salary through trade like Huston did with Verlander or sign a guy like the Cubs did with Lester.

 

You know Stroman is going to want FA money after the 2020 season right? He's not going to give us a discount.

 

If we trade Stroman now we get a good prospect for him. We can still sign 2 starters instead of one. What's the difference if it's Stroman + FA starter vs 2 FA starters? It's gonna cost the same in the end, except the 2nd option we also end up with a controllable talent. We could even hypothetically bring back Stroman as a free agent.

[Brownie19]

All of those teams have spent significant money on free agents. Baseball has shown us over and over that building internally then adding with assets is the best way to be successful (obv still not a guarantee).

 

Your takeaway should be the best way to build is use a varied strategy. Don’t only rely on prospects, equally don’t only rely on free agents.

 

Bob - please cite all these big name FA's those teams have signed. I'll start you off. The Cubs signed Heyward and Darvish and the Cardinals signed Fowler. How are those working out for them? Houston signed Brantley to a short term reasonable deal, Braves signed JD to a 1 year deal, Brewers signed Moose for next to nothing.