General 2019 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Carlos Danger]

I am watching Undrafted, funniest baseball movie I have ever seen. LMAO

[vdubmvp]

 

I'll never tire of this gif.

[vdubmvp]

Plus he looks so damn good.

[wk680]

I know a lot of people here were projecting Vlad to put up 5 WAR this year even missing the first month, is he still on track for that?

 

With Vlad having 0.3 fWAR in 29 games (121 PA), it is easy to poke holes. But he is hampered by being part of one of the least productive lineups in MLB. The current projections are for about 3 WAR in 2019, which seems reasonable.

Edited June 2, 2019 by wk680
typo

[BTS]

We are now dead last in position player fWAR at -0.3. Somehow worse than the Marlins and Orioles.

[DigitalRock]

We are now dead last in position player fWAR at -0.3. Somehow worse than the Marlins and Orioles.

 

lol wow...Shatkins got work to do.

[BTS]

lol wow...Shatkins got work to do.

 

It gets dark when you look in more detail. Smoak, Galvis, and Sogard have been worth 2.2 fWAR, so everyone else on the roster has combined for -2.5 fWAR. After those three vets, our most valuable position player is Gurriel at 0.3 fWAR, and our second second most valuable, at 0.1, is... Trent Thornton.

 

This season has been an unadulterated disaster.

[Terminator]

 

It's June and as a team we are collectively hitting like Ryan Goins. This is pathetic.

[BlueRocky]

For future readers: If you value your health, don’t go back the last 10 pages and read everything like I did. You have been warned. It was a tough weekend and many sacrifices were made.

[BTS]

 

It's June and as a team we are collectively hitting like Ryan Goins. This is pathetic.

 

I wonder at what point we're going to see a public acknowledgement from Atkins or Shapiro that this is unacceptable and that the front office has to be better. If the team continues to collectively hit like Ryan Goins and loses 100+ games, they won't be able to keep pretending like this is part of the process and everything is going to plan. I get that this is a rebuild, but this is embarrassing and decidedly NOT what the plan was.

[bendera3]

I wonder at what point we're going to see a public acknowledgement from Atkins or Shapiro that this is unacceptable and that the front office has to be better. If the team continues to collectively hit like Ryan Goins and loses 100+ games, they won't be able to keep pretending like this is part of the process and everything is going to plan. I get that this is a rebuild, but this is embarrassing and decidedly NOT what the plan was.

 

Does anyone recall what the Astros looked like before their 3 consecutive 100 lost seasons? It seems like their 2010 team was younger than our team was last year on average.

 

I wonder what Atkins time frame is like in regards to the rebuild.

[glory]

I wonder at what point we're going to see a public acknowledgement from Atkins or Shapiro that this is unacceptable and that the front office has to be better. If the team continues to collectively hit like Ryan Goins and loses 100+ games, they won't be able to keep pretending like this is part of the process and everything is going to plan. I get that this is a rebuild, but this is embarrassing and decidedly NOT what the plan was.

 

They made no effort to make the 2019 team better, have force fed playing time to never-will-be's, gave a 2 WAR player $50m a year and a half before they had do, and will trade their best pitchers in a market where teams do not trade top prospects anymore.

 

I actually thought 2020 would be better, but I'm honestly scared we will waste at least half of Vlad's service time before it gets better. I know I'll get killed by the Shatkins white knights who will run to their defense, but I was actually a big fan of theirs since 2016 and they've turned me into this. It's their fault. Give me a reason to be optimistic fer god sakes!

[Terminator]

They made no effort to make the 2019 team better, have force fed playing time to never-will-be's, gave a 2 WAR player $50m a year and a half before they had do, and will trade their best pitchers in a market where teams do not trade top prospects anymore.

 

I actually thought 2020 would be better, but I'm honestly scared we will waste at least half of Vlad's service time before it gets better. I know I'll get killed by the Shatkins white knights who will run to their defense, but I was actually a big fan of theirs since 2016 and they've turned me into this. It's their fault. Give me a reason to be optimistic fer god sakes!

 

We are going to suck ass in 2020 too. We need like 4 Starting Pitchers, 4 bats and at least 3 relievers lol.

[Terminator]

If I had any faith in Rogers hiring an advanced stats aficionado and forward-thinker and not some idiot like Dan Duquette I wouldn't give two shits if they fired Shatkins at this point. I'm not calling for it and this isn't some knee-jerk reaction, I'm just looking at the overall body of work and not seeing a ton of stuff to like. Hiring a dipshit manager, marginal trades like Diaz for Thornton, and basically not partaking in down free agent markets (while giving 5 year extensions to 2 WAR talent) to cut payroll isn't exactly inspiring stuff.

[G-Snarls]

Yeah

 

This isn't fun

[Terminator]

It's almost as if you can't put 100% faith in statcast darlings. Plate still discipline matters.

[BlueRocky]

I did respond to the debate. The poster you so proudly defended has been nothing but completely disingenuous with the majority of his posts ITT.

 

In a nutshell, he has claimed that the Blue Jays have less coming up the pipe than what we all think, as well as nothing on the current team. It's wrong to exclude a player like Vlad from this exercise because a) he's still below rookie thresholds and he comes from that farm that mikepelfrey is knocking. Vlad either counts on the big league club or he counts as a prospect. Same with Biggio, Jansen, and Bichette.

 

To add to my last post, SRF and a few others may have taken a step backward (or at least didn't develop forward), but other players like Alejandro Kirk, Jordan Groshans, Riley Adams, Gabriel Moreno, Otto Lopez, Brock Lundquist, Joey Murray, Josh Winckowski, etc. have taken steps forward, ranging from small to massive.

 

Even after removing Vlad from the group, the Jays' farm is easily top 10. Eyeballing it, they're probably somewhere in the 5-8 range, currently - not 18th like your boy mikepelfrey said.

I agree.

 

We’re seeing guys like Riley Adams breaking out. Cullen Large, Nate Pearson, Patrick Murphy having a healthy season. Forrest Wall and Santiago Espinal doing well and maybe getting bumped to triple-A soon. double-A NH current houses our most talented rotation, which could be 1-2 year away from big club impact.

Groshans, Kirk, and Moreno destroying projections in the lower minors. Surprising pitching performances from guys like Josh Winckowzki and Nick Allgeyer.

 

We still haven’t seen Eric Pardinho, Adam Kloffenstein, Orelvis Martinez, and Miguel Hiraldo yet. These are 4 of our top 15 guys.

 

And the draft is June 3-5, last time I checked we have a pretty high pick his year and next year. And we’re likely getting something good back at the trade deadline.

 

Even post-Vlad, Biggio graduations we should be easily a top 10 system.

Jansen has graduated, but Adams and Kirk could break into the t100 rankings. Bo Bichette is literally a hatchling and could be a star. Pearson and Groshans already saw their stock rise dramatically.

[BTS]

If I had any faith in Rogers hiring an advanced stats aficionado and forward-thinker and not some idiot like Dan Duquette I wouldn't give two shits if they fired Shatkins at this point. I'm not calling for it and this isn't some knee-jerk reaction, I'm just looking at the overall body of work and not seeing a ton of stuff to like.

 

Everything I've heard from Mark Shapiro makes me think he understands what it takes to build a healthy MLB team, and there's a large body of evidence of that in Cleveland. He's also a good communicator. I trust him in the role of President.

 

At this point, our faith in Shatkins is really just faith in Mark Shapiro and his opinion of Atkins, because the Atkin's track record to this point is not impressive, and we're going on 4 years.

 

I'd be pretty disappointed if Shapiro were fired, but if Shapiro decided to fire Atkins, I wouldn't be the least bit disappointed. I don't even know what the dynamic between the two is though. If Atkins loses 105 games with no development from the MLB roster, would his job be in jeopardy? Or is Atkins Shapiro's guy for better or worse, and completely safe in his position regardless of his performance?

[Orgfiller]

I wonder at what point we're going to see a public acknowledgement from Atkins or Shapiro that this is unacceptable and that the front office has to be better. If the team continues to collectively hit like Ryan Goins and loses 100+ games, they won't be able to keep pretending like this is part of the process and everything is going to plan. I get that this is a rebuild, but this is embarrassing and decidedly NOT what the plan was.

 

It's also just the fact that like, pretty much everything has gone wrong, and I don't know how much blame there is to pass, who to blame and which parts are just straight up terrible luck. Did anyone actually expect this team to be one of the worst hitting clubs in the league? If you look in terms of projections:

 

- Vladimir Guerrero Jr., hitting extraordinaire, is sitting at a 105 wRC+ through 30 games with expectedly below average defense and baserunning. He's shown that he can be a monster, literally no one should be worried about him, but that's your top player performing substantially below his expected/true talent level.

- Danny Jansen, projected top 5 catcher in baseball is one of the worst hitters in the game. The power is gone, but he's also sitting at an xWOBA which is 70 points higher than his actual, so you take already poor performance and combine it with bad luck and you get someone that doesn't look like they could hit in A+.

- Randal Grichuk, "safe" 2 WAR player has stopped hitting the ball hard. His PD stats are all exactly around career averages, with him even sporting a higher BB rate. He's not barreling the ball at all, so his EV is down, as is his xWOBA and his xWOBA on contact. Randal Grichuk was supposed to be someone with poor plate discipline who when he connects would crush the ball, and he's not doing the latter right now.

- Teoscar Hernandez actually improved his defense and walk rate and somehow became a worse player. Again, he simply stopped hitting the ball hard, and we know if there's thing he had going for him from before it's that.

- Billy McKinney + Brandon Drury, both awful. Both had been around average hitters or better in the big leagues and their minor league careers, what gives?

- Socrates Brito, is apparently the definition of a AAAA hitter, he could not have possibly been any worse.

- Alford is garbage

 

On the pitching side:

- Aaron Sanchez sucks a lot and is constantly hurt

- Matt Shoemaker died in a f***ing rundown

- Borucki died before he even made a pitch

- SRF took a massive step back in AAA

 

So now the question becomes, how much of this can we attribute to poor player evaluation? How much to bad coaching? How much to bad luck? Is it fixable, or are we in a hole too deep to dig out of, at least with our current group of young players at the MLB level and immediate AAA group?

Edited June 3, 2019 by Orgfiller

[Brownie19]

This is 2012 Astros/Cubs losing, which is fine. It's a top 3 pick. Our minor league system is healthy. Shapiro knows what it takes, for sure.

 

I thought we should have went after the Lyles/Perez types instead of Richard/EJax/Buchholz but if you're outright trying to lose games, I get it.

 

Everything is fine except the player development of MLB talent. Or should I say "talent". There's no way Pete Walker is on the Astros/Twins level of pitcher development. He's probably closer to the bottom, old school teams. Aaron Sanchez is a f***ing massive failure no matter how you look at it. We can barely even get this guy on the field. I'm convinced that Stroman has another level with that repertoire.

 

I do like this new hitting coach Martinez, training with hitting velocity instead of side toss ********, but so far the results aren't there. It's possible the position players Atkins acquired just suck ass, he did seem to be confident in them just 6 months ago.

 

Edit: I also think Atkins is ignoring hit tool too much when going after players. He is looking for guys who can hit barrels but I think nowadays it's easier to barrel if you have a hit tool. Drury, Teoscar, McKinney, Grichuk have all shown pop but the hit tool was always in question. I think that's why Harold Ramirez was an after thought (I don't think he turns into anything but it speaks to their player preference, I think).

 

I think it's pretty clear that something in their advance analytic research suggests a market inefficiency in barrels and exit velocity stuff over contact. It might just be that if you're going to take a flyer on a marginal prospect - you're more likely to 'hit' on someone with those characteristics over someone who makes good contact (without the power profile). ie, it's easy to take someone who hits the ball hard and improve their contact, than take a contact hitter and teach them to hit with more power.

 

I think with guys like Grichuk, Teoscar, etc. they thought if they could improve their eye/patience, they could get them swinging at more balls they can hit....and when those guys hit the ball, they hit it hard.

[Ray]

I think it's pretty clear that something in their advance analytic research suggests a market inefficiency in barrels and exit velocity stuff over contact. It might just be that if you're going to take a flyer on a marginal prospect - you're more likely to 'hit' on someone with those characteristics over someone who makes good contact (without the power profile). ie, it's easy to take someone who hits the ball hard and improve their contact, than take a contact hitter and teach them to hit with more power.

 

I think with guys like Grichuk, Teoscar, etc. they thought if they could improve their eye/patience, they could get them swinging at more balls they can hit....and when those guys hit the ball, they hit it hard.

 

It's exactly this.

 

Go look at the Top 10 leaders in in Brls/PA. It's almost all exclusively guys having great hitting seasons. Teoscar Hernandez had an elite barrel rate last season, and Grichuk has always been a Statcast darling. Both of those guys are legitimately a plate adjustment away from being impact type bats, and you can dream on them to do so given their relative youth, plus in the case of Teoscar banking him to improve the more major league PA's he got.

[glory]

If I had any faith in Rogers hiring an advanced stats aficionado and forward-thinker and not some idiot like Dan Duquette I wouldn't give two shits if they fired Shatkins at this point. I'm not calling for it and this isn't some knee-jerk reaction, I'm just looking at the overall body of work and not seeing a ton of stuff to like. Hiring a dipshit manager, marginal trades like Diaz for Thornton, and basically not partaking in down free agent markets (while giving 5 year extensions to 2 WAR talent) to cut payroll isn't exactly inspiring stuff.

 

Agreed. I think Shapiro was a great hire and still is, but either Atkins is really bad (assuming he has full autonomy) or Shapiro has lost a step in a changing economic climate in MLB.

 

Rogers will get tired of poor attendance either by the end of this season or next season, and I think Shapiro signed a five year deal when he took over (which would cover 2016-2020). I would not be shocked if Rogers moves on from Shatkins after 2020, especially if 2020 is a repeat of 2019.

[Orgfiller]

Also sorry Olerud for completely stealing the post that you made earlier which I didn't see. I didn't figure anything of substance would come from the Smoak extension thread but I see I basically reiterated your point from there, pretty much player by player.

[Terminator]

So should the guy who thinks Billy McKinney and Brandon Drury are viable big leaguers be the guy who is entrusted to fix this mess?

 

I also don't hold Shapiro with as much reverence as everyone else does. I've never bought into the cult of the GM. There are thousands of people who could do a good job building a team. That said, team owners are so damn stupid that you could certainly do A LOT worse than Shapiro. So I'll stop short of saying he should get canned but he is the boss the and buck stops with him.

[Terminator]

This team is going to suck ass again next year. We need 4 starting hitters, 3 starting pitchers, and an entire new bullpen. Filling out the bench is pretty easy at least.

 

LINEUP

C- Jansen

1B-

2B- Biggio

3B- Vlad Jr.

SS- Galvis (until Bichette comes up)

LF-

CF-

RF- Grichuk

DH-

 

BENCH

C- Maile

UT- Drury (assuming the team can avoid arb with him because he's a non-tender candidate otherwise)

UT- Gurriel

1B/DH- Tellez

 

ROTATION

1.

2.

3. Shoemaker

4. Thornton

5. Borucki

 

BULLPEN

lol

[BTS]

This team is going to suck ass again next year. We need 4 starting hitters, 3 starting pitchers, and an entire new bullpen. Filling out the bench is pretty easy at least.

 

LINEUP

C- Jansen

1B-

2B- Biggio

3B- Vlad Jr.

SS- Galvis (until Bichette comes up)

LF-

CF-

RF- Grichuk

DH-

 

BENCH

C- Maile

UT- Drury (assuming the team can avoid arb with him because he's a non-tender candidate otherwise)

UT- Gurriel

1B/DH- Tellez

 

ROTATION

1.

2.

3. Shoemaker

4. Thornton

5. Borucki

 

BULLPEN

lol

 

“We’re at the point now where our position player talent is very, very strong, and it would be hard to really upgrade,”

- Ross Atkins, less than a year ago

[P2F]

“We’re at the point now where our position player talent is very, very strong, and it would be hard to really upgrade,”

- Ross Atkins, less than a year ago

 

Lol that quote did not age well. Like, at all. Yikes.

[Ex Player]

SS- Galvis (until Bichette comes up)

Bichette is off to a slow start at AAA this year too

[Slot Machine]

Maybe what he meant to say is, "everything we touch turns to s***, so really it would be pretty hard to upgrade."

 

Ross Atkins: *Shits pants*

[Brownie19]

It gets dark when you look in more detail. Smoak, Galvis, and Sogard have been worth 2.2 fWAR, so everyone else on the roster has combined for -2.5 fWAR. After those three vets, our most valuable position player is Gurriel at 0.3 fWAR, and our second second most valuable, at 0.1, is... Trent Thornton.

 

This season has been an unadulterated disaster.

 

If it helps. Brandon Woodruff has 0.5 WAR as a positional player over 30 PA's. He's 7th on the Brewers ahead of Braun, Arcia, Perez, Hiura, Aguilar and Shaw.

 

 

Edit: I'm not sure how that 'helps' anything. Perhaps it distracts you for a few moments?