Preparing for 2018

[Ray]

Lets get some players that offer flexibility first...then start dealing in guys that we would struggle to make fit (-2 DRS in his 51 innings in the OF)

 

Who would you realistically target? I'm curious to hear, because the FA class this season isn't that great. Unless you're referring to trades.

[Ray]

So yeah

 

They're not trading Donaldson and they will try to extend him

 

Offer him 5/130 or 5/135 and see how he reacts. He's probably looking at around $20-$25 million in arb next season. Bump his salary up a little for his final arb year and offer a little incentive for him to forgo free agency.

 

Donaldson seems to like the front office and Toronto. If you offer him something respectable, I think there's a chance that he signs like Estrada just did.

[G-Snarls]

Offer him 5/130 or 5/135 and see how he reacts. He's probably looking at around $20-$25 million in arb next season. Bump his salary up a little for his final arb year and offer a little incentive for him to forgo free agency.

 

Donaldson seems to like the front office and Toronto. If you offer him something respectable, I think there's a chance that he signs like Estrada just did.

 

Agree on all counts

 

If he wants a 5 year deal (and he should), I want next year to be year 1, to reduce the risk of a bad year at the back end

 

He seemed to appreciate the 2 year deal they gave him last year when they didn't have to

[G-Snarls]

2018 - 25M

2019 - 25M

2020 - 27.5M

2021 - 27.5M

2022 - 30M with a 4-5M buyout

[Ray]

2018 - 25M

2019 - 25M

2020 - 27.5M

2021 - 27.5M

2022 - 30M with a 4-5M buyout

 

I'd think he'd want 5 years at least guaranteed. You could probably do an option on a 6th year to defer some money.

 

2018: $25M (Age: 32)

2019: $25M (Age: 33)

2020: $27.5M (Age: 34)

2021: $27.5M (Age: 35)

2022: $30M (Age: 36)

2023: $25M Team Option with a $5 million buyout (Age: 37)

 

He's looking at $140M guaranteed over 5 years which comes out to be a $28 million AAV. By the time he starts making $27.5 million+, Tulo and Martins $40 million will be off the book and hopefully you'll have a relatively young core of players in either arb1 or pre-arb.

 

The obvious comp to Donaldson is Cano who got $240 mil at age 31.

[Abomination]

The obvious comp to Donaldson is Cano who got $240 mil at age 31.

 

Didn't Seattle end up bidding against themselves on that deal though, by like 30 million or something?

[G-Snarls]

I'd think he'd want 5 years at least guaranteed. You could probably do an option on a 6th year to defer some money.

 

2018: $25M (Age: 32)

2019: $25M (Age: 33)

2020: $27.5M (Age: 34)

2021: $27.5M (Age: 35)

2022: $30M (Age: 36)

2023: $25M Team Option with a $5 million buyout (Age: 37)

 

He's looking at $140M guaranteed over 5 years which comes out to be a $28 million AAV. By the time he starts making $27.5 million+, Tulo and Martins $40 million will be off the book and hopefully you'll have a relatively young core of players in either arb1 or pre-arb.

 

The obvious comp to Donaldson is Cano who got $240 mil at age 31.

 

Yeah you probably have to guarantee 5 years

 

However no front office is going to pull a Seattle and give Donaldson the same length of contract that Cano got

 

Front offices are smarter now for the most part

 

And Machado and Harper are many years younger. They're the only ones who might get 8+ years

[Ray]

Didn't Seattle end up bidding against themselves on that deal though, by like 30 million or something?

 

Yep. Yankees offered him $170M over 7 years. Seattle then offered him $200M over 8 years. Then apparently heard that a "mystery team" had an offer of $225M over 9 years on the table when there was no such thing and inexplicably upped their offer to $240M over 10 years. Cost themselves 2 extra years and $40M when they were by far and away the best offer Cano had anyways.

 

Article here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackomalleygreenburg/2013/12/06/cano-signs-240m-deal-with-seattle-jay-z-saves-face-sort-of/#2a1a68612b74

[Ray]

Yeah you probably have to guarantee 5 years

 

However no front office is going to pull a Seattle and give Donaldson the same length of contract that Cano got

 

Front offices are smarter now for the most part

 

And Machado and Harper are many years younger. They're the only ones who might get 8+ years

 

I don't think he gets 10 years either. That was a case of a front office being blinded by their own stupid desperation. I don't think we'll go past 6 years if anything.

[TheHurl]

Who would you realistically target? I'm curious to hear, because the FA class this season isn't that great. Unless you're referring to trades.

 

Well Nunez on a 2 year contract would fit the bill (guys like him are not going to get stupid contracts) Eric Sogard on a 1 year would be solid(great defender right side of the platoon can draw a walk). But I was mostly thinking through trade. The A's have a shitload of multi-position guys and another couple more on the 40 or in need of being added (Munoz and Mateo with Max Schrock waiting in the wings). I'm not sure that the A's who would be on the market are ones I'd want but if our F.O. can see something in them why not.

[jaysblue]

Well Nunez on a 2 year contract would fit the bill (guys like him are not going to get stupid contracts) Eric Sogard on a 1 year would be solid(great defender right side of the platoon can draw a walk). But I was mostly thinking through trade. The A's have a shitload of multi-position guys and another couple more on the 40 or in need of being added (Munoz and Mateo with Max Schrock waiting in the wings). I'm not sure that the A's who would be on the market are ones I'd want but if our F.O. can see something in them why not.

 

After the second half Nunez had with the Boston? I think he'll get more than a 2 year contract from someone in what is a weak FA market. He's still only 30 and has displayed double digit power numbers along with averaging 30+ SB's the past two seasons.

[Brownie19]

Well Nunez on a 2 year contract would fit the bill (guys like him are not going to get stupid contracts) Eric Sogard on a 1 year would be solid(great defender right side of the platoon can draw a walk). But I was mostly thinking through trade. The A's have a shitload of multi-position guys and another couple more on the 40 or in need of being added (Munoz and Mateo with Max Schrock waiting in the wings). I'm not sure that the A's who would be on the market are ones I'd want but if our F.O. can see something in them why not.

 

Sogard has a career wRC+ of 78. Can we just not please?

[Terminator]

Sogard has a career wRC+ of 78. Can we just not please?

 

He's been worth 3 WAR over his past 4 seasons, all of which were years in which he was more of a bench guy than a regular. That's not a bad player and certainly an improvement over Goins and Barney.

[G-Snarls]

[Terminator]

 

How many do they think we have now? 8-9 is necessary but it seems like we have quite a ways to go.

[glory]

The Cardinals have an absurd amount of outfielders. I'm sure they'd trade some guys away cheap.

 

Yeah I am looking at the Cards as well. They have a lot of OF's. Grichuk kinda fits what the Jays looked at with Smoak with his batted ball profile. Wouldn't surprise me if they tried for him. What do the Cards need, relief pitching? Maybe sell high on someone like Tepera. No clue what it would take, but the team needs to pull something out of their ass to fix the OF and free agency doesn't look very appealing.

[burlingtonbandit]

Now that the Canadian Dollar is around $1.20 for each USD I wonder if they spend more money. They conveniently said the USD going up was a factor for payroll before so lets see if it works the other way.

[G-Snarls]

The 78-74 Twins are in the WC 2 spot, 1.5 games up

 

Just..... What a season in the AL

[Brownie19]

The 78-74 Twins are in the WC 2 spot, 1.5 games up

 

Just..... What a season in the AL

 

With Sano's out....bonkers.

[G-Snarls]

With Sano's out....bonkers.

 

It also just makes me think the Jays could have been right in there so easily

[Jimcanuck]

It also just makes me think the Jays could have been right in there so easily

 

20 other teams thinking the same thing

 

(no, its not so easy)

[John_Havok]

20 other teams thinking the same thing

 

(no, its not so easy)

 

True, but it's also not insurmountable. People tend to forget that there's incredible amounts of luck(both bad and good), sequencing(both bad and good) and random s*** that happens every season. Key injuries, players emerging out of nowhere...

 

As long as you have a solid core in place and under control and don't put yourself in a position that you need a complete top to bottom overhaul, your team is likely in the cusp of at least the wildcard conversation. Add in some well thought out additions and not get injury f***ed... this team is not that far out.

[Spanky99]

True, but it's also not insurmountable. People tend to forget that there's incredible amounts of luck(both bad and good), sequencing(both bad and good) and random s*** that happens every season. Key injuries, players emerging out of nowhere...

 

As long as you have a solid core in place and under control and don't put yourself in a position that you need a complete top to bottom overhaul, your team is likely in the cusp of at least the wildcard conversation. Add in some well thought out additions and not get injury f***ed... this team is not that far out.

 

Exactly... the Twinkies could win the WS and it's not that far from the realm of doable.

[Bobthe4th]

True, but it's also not insurmountable. People tend to forget that there's incredible amounts of luck(both bad and good), sequencing(both bad and good) and random s*** that happens every season. Key injuries, players emerging out of nowhere...

 

As long as you have a solid core in place and under control and don't put yourself in a position that you need a complete top to bottom overhaul, your team is likely in the cusp of at least the wildcard conversation. Add in some well thought out additions and not get injury f***ed... this team is not that far out.

 

This.

 

It's also helps to make the baseball season more exciting. Virtually every team is a couple of prospects, a waiver claim and a reclamation free agent all having unexpectedly good seasons, away from the playoffs.

[Jimcanuck]

Of course there is always a chance. But realistically, a team like the Jays with multiple holes has essentially a 1/20 = 5% chance of lucking into the WC.

 

Unless they open the vault and sign multiple free agents, Alex Cobb and others. Quite unlikely.

 

The question is, keep JD, hope for luck, and lose him for nothing at end of 2018, or trade him now for Reyes+ to load up for the Vladdy era?

[Bobthe4th]

Of course there is always a chance. But realistically, a team like the Jays with multiple holes has essentially a 1/20 = 5% chance of lucking into the WC.

 

What? I guarantee the Jays playoff odds would be much higher than that even with no signings (which obv won't happen).

 

One third of the teams make the playoffs.

 

If you meant the World Series that would make more sense.

[thatoneguy]

Of course there is always a chance. But realistically, a team like the Jays with multiple holes has essentially a 1/20 = 5% chance of lucking into the WC.

 

Unless they open the vault and sign multiple free agents, Alex Cobb and others. Quite unlikely.

 

The question is, keep JD, hope for luck, and lose him for nothing at end of 2018, or trade him now for Reyes+ to load up for the Vladdy era?

 

Where exactly are you coming up with these probabilities?

[L54]

Where exactly are you coming up with these probabilities?

 

Proprietary information man

[L54]

I do agree with Jim's overarching point however. This team is in need of more than just one or two upgrades to seriously compete for the division, which will take contracts of multiple years and dollars to address. If they go that route, it's likely Donaldson is gone after 2018. If they patch the team together next year, is sneaking into the WC more valuable than the return Donaldson gives you this offseason? Probably not.

 

I love Donny. Everyone loves Donny! Even my Blue Jay hating friends love Donny. I just can't envision a scenario where this team makes enough improvements to justify holding onto him through the end of next year. In that case, trading him in the offseason makes the most sense. I fully expect them to hold onto him though and see where they're at come the end of June or early July next year.

 

We'd never be privy to this, but I'd love it if the FO sat down with Donaldson and asked him give them a list of places he'd be willing to go play. Let him know that they're going to be serious players for him next offseason, while retooling by trading him ala Chapman.

[Spanky99]

Where exactly are you coming up with these probabilities?

 

His ass!