Preparing for 2018

[Key22]

With 2017 a bit of a train wreck. We head to 2018 with a new budget and some players coming off the books.

 

So what should the Jays be doing this off season? I will assume that Jose Bautista will not be resigned which should free up $20 million. Estrada and his $13 million also technically comes off the books though apparently they are discussing an extension. Some other minor role players off the books.

 

Unfortunately we have an untradeable albatross in the $20 million per year injury prone Tulo.

 

So it appears to me we have holes in the outfield, middle infield, starting rotation.

*Can the Jays trade for help without trading any key prospects?

*Can the Jays compete financially to land free agents that will actually help us?

*Do the Jays have high quality MLB level prospects ready to fill in the missing pieces?

** Do the Jays try and extend Josh Donaldson, JA Happ, and/or Justin Smoak?

 

So I suppose it's a "what should they do?" versus "what do you think they will actually do?"

[Terminator]

A lot of this will hinge on Donaldson. I'd like to see them extend him but my guess is that they don't.

[Bobthe4th]

Work out what to do with JD (he has just as big an impact on this as the FO - he may not want to sign an extension).

 

Trade one of Morales, Pearce or Smoak.

 

Promote Teoscar, Alford, and Gurriel.

 

Trade Pompey while he still has a little bit of value.

 

Sign one good free agent starter (Alex Cobb? Cheap buy low candidate).

 

Hope that Travis, Sanchez and Donaldson (if he's still here) are fully fit.

[Spanky99]

We head to 2018 with a new budget and some players coming off the books.

 

$76,303,571... *Totals include potential buyouts and not option total

[sdyment]

Donaldson is the linchpin.

If he resigns, then I suspect they will try to add older MLB players (on short contracts) ala WS winning RedSox team through free agency and trades.

If no Donaldson deal goes through, then Liriano type deals and baseball trades of high minor/0-6 players to try and coincide with Vladdy and Bo's arrivals

[BTS]

I'm really hoping they trade JD for some impact prospects in the offseason. I just don't see enough here to make them a WS contender in 2018. That said, I expect JD to be retained.

[G-Snarls]

I'm really hoping they trade JD for some impact prospects in the offseason. I just don't see enough here to make them a WS contender in 2018. That said, I expect JD to be retained.

 

What team with money would be willing to trade for him and maybe pre-sign an extension? We won't get as much if he's just being obtained for 1 year at 22M+ which he'll probably get in arb-3.

[wamco]

Sign Bruce and Lynn.

 

Those 2 additions would make our offense and so better plus better seasons from jd, Travis, sanchez, makes us competitive (keeps attendance up) and allows the farm another year of growth.

Win- win.

 

Replace Bautista with internal options.

 

Not sure what payroll will be and if Bruce and Lynn fit in. I've seen 13m and 18m speculated as their price, respectively.

 

Would love if the money we saved for trade deadline moves could be used toward next year

[Angrioter]

I'm really hoping they trade JD for some impact prospects in the offseason. I just don't see enough here to make them a WS contender in 2018. That said, I expect JD to be retained.

Boston, Yankees, and Rays good and young teams.

Time to rebuild

[G-Snarls]

Boston, Yankees, and Rays good and young teams.

Time to rebuild

 

Yeah

 

No slight re tooling is going to make this team a serious contender in 2018

[Bobthe4th]

Boston, Yankees, and Rays good and young teams.

Time to rebuild

 

The Rays? You're joking right? No way they acquire an ageing star to extend him on a high salary.

 

We can probably rule out the Red Sox, too now that Devers has started his MLB career well.

[Bobthe4th]

Yeah

 

No slight re tooling is going to make this team a serious contender in 2018

 

If we reran this season with exactly the same players, but Travis, Donaldson and Sanchez had no injuries, we'd make the playoffs easily.

 

That doesn't mean that'll happen next year, but it's an exaggeration to write us off even before Vlad and Bo potentially get here in 2019.

[Pendleton]

The Rays? You're joking right? No way they acquire an ageing star to extend him on a high salary.

 

We can probably rule out the Red Sox, too now that Devers has started his MLB career well.

 

I'm pretty sure he wasn't suggesting those teams as landing spots for Donaldson....

[G-Snarls]

If we reran this season with exactly the same players, but Travis, Donaldson and Sanchez had no injuries, we'd make the playoffs easily.

 

That doesn't mean that'll happen next year, but it's an exaggeration to write us off even before Vlad and Bo potentially get here in 2019.

 

Agree, this could have easily been a wild card team this year with some better luck in terms of health

 

But with an aging core of Donaldson, Tulo, Martin, Morales and Bautista it dosn't look great for 2018 when the Red Sox and Yankees have a young progressing core

 

The FO is in an uncomfortable spot this off season

 

Only Sanchez, Stroman, Osuna, Travis and maybe Pillar look like players who will still be young-ish and above average by the time Vlad and Bo get here and hopefully stick. Donaldson may or may not decline significantly before that and Martin/Tulo obviously aren't likely to hold up well.

[burlingtonbandit]

Wonder how much Jay Bruce will get. I expect the Jays to target him as they apparently liked him a lot over the last 2 years.

[Orgfiller]

Agree, this could have easily been a wild card team this year with some better luck in terms of health

 

But with an aging core of Donaldson, Tulo, Martin, Morales and Bautista it dosn't look great for 2018 when the Red Sox and Yankees have a young progressing core

 

The FO is in an uncomfortable spot this off season

 

Only Sanchez, Stroman, Osuna, Travis and maybe Pillar look like players who will still be young-ish and above average by the time Vlad and Bo get here and hopefully stick. Donaldson may or may not decline significantly before that and Martin/Tulo obviously aren't likely to hold up well.

 

Bautista isn't/won't be part of the core for 2018. Donaldson and Martin are still elite, the other two are sunk costs though so I agree there. The team really isn't in all that bad of a position. Alford and Teoscar should be ready for the show by next year, maybe Tellez turns things around, maybe he doesn't; Gurriel, SRF, Danny Jansen, Ryan Borucko, Reese McGuire (?) could all be knocking at the door for role-playing time at least. It's highly unlikely any of these guys will impact the team like a Devers or Gary Sanchez, but that's still a good amount of young, potentially not useless talent to complement the likes of JD, Martin, Stroman, Sanchez (not sold on him yet), Osuna and maybe Travis.

 

I think the FO aren't in as big a pickle as one might think. The Red Sox will be the team to beat in the East and it won't be close, but there's a lot of uncertainty in the rest of the division and the potential wild card teams. Playoffs are well within reach, the biggest obstacle will be securing depth for both starters and position players.

[Spanky99]

A lot of this will hinge on Donaldson. I'd like to see them extend him but my guess is that they don't.

 

Nah... "It hinges on Vlad Jr" - Jimcanuck

[jaysblue]

Wonder how much Jay Bruce will get. I expect the Jays to target him as they apparently liked him a lot over the last 2 years.

 

Could have had him for next to nothing last offseason. If we go based on what happened last offseason with FA sluggers, I think Bruce gets something along the lines of what Trumbo got (3yrs/37M), considering it's a weak market as well.

[jaysblue]

Sign Bruce and Lynn.

 

Those 2 additions would make our offense and so better plus better seasons from jd, Travis, sanchez, makes us competitive (keeps attendance up) and allows the farm another year of growth.

Win- win.

 

Replace Bautista with internal options.

 

Not sure what payroll will be and if Bruce and Lynn fit in. I've seen 13m and 18m speculated as their price, respectively.

 

Would love if the money we saved for trade deadline moves could be used toward next year

 

I like Lynn, but he scares me if he moves to the AL, especially the AL East.

[jaysblue]

Would like to see the Jays go after a super-utility MI who you could give 400AB-450AB's without hesitation & who could rotate between 2B and SS on a regular basis with Travis and Tulo still in the picture. I've had enough of Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney.

[KevinGregg]

Would like to see the Jays go after a super-utility MI who you could give 400AB-450AB's without hesitation & who could rotate between 2B and SS on a regular basis with Travis and Tulo still in the picture. I've had enough of Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney.

 

Gurriel could be that guy

[Krylian]

I don't think they'll do anything with Donaldson. No worries trade, no extension. Paralyzed to make any real decision. Here's to hoping I'm wrong.

[Brownie19]

Would like to see the Jays go after a super-utility MI who you could give 400AB-450AB's without hesitation & who could rotate between 2B and SS on a regular basis with Travis and Tulo still in the picture. I've had enough of Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney.

 

Most guys capable of giving you that will want + land starting gigs on another team. They either need to fill that role from within, or find someone who's never done it before with any success (and hope he can take a step forward)....Like say a Tim Beckham this year. Also a little unfair to rip Barney. He gave us 1.5 WAR in 306 PA's last year in that role, which was really solid.

[jaysblue]

Most guys capable of giving you that will want + land starting gigs on another team. They either need to fill that role from within, or find someone who's never done it before with any success (and hope he can take a step forward)....Like say a Tim Beckham this year. Also a little unfair to rip Barney. He gave us 1.5 WAR in 306 PA's last year in that role, which was really solid.

 

Tim Beckham would have been a perfect fit IMO, though it's too late now. Can't believe Tampa gave him away for nothing. Gurriel is likely that guy at some point. Barney has given the Jays -0.8 WAR this season. He's alright as a bench option, though don't want to see him playing everyday. Obviously injuries to Travis and Tulo made that happen, though I just hope the Jays are better prepared heading into next season because I don't want to see Goins or Barney playing everyday again.

 

Not saying this would have made a difference in terms of nabbing the 2nd wildcard spot, though still pretty appalling why the team never went out to acquire a MI at the deadline considering how bad the AL Wildcard was this season and when they likely would have come cheap. Someone like a Jed Lowrie, Neil Walker, Zach Cozart, Tim Beckham etc. wouldn't have cost a whole lot in terms of prospect capital and would have been huge upgrades over Goins & Barney right now.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

With 2017 a bit of a train wreck. We head to 2018 with a new budget and some players coming off the books.

 

So what should the Jays be doing this off season? I will assume that Jose Bautista will not be resigned which should free up $20 million. Estrada and his $13 million also technically comes off the books though apparently they are discussing an extension. Some other minor role players off the books.

 

Unfortunately we have an untradeable albatross in the $20 million per year injury prone Tulo.

 

So it appears to me we have holes in the outfield, middle infield, starting rotation.

*Can the Jays trade for help without trading any key prospects?

*Can the Jays compete financially to land free agents that will actually help us?

*Do the Jays have high quality MLB level prospects ready to fill in the missing pieces?

** Do the Jays try and extend Josh Donaldson, JA Happ, and/or Justin Smoak?

 

So I suppose it's a "what should they do?" versus "what do you think they will actually do?"

 

I think Hernandez in RF, Alford in LF and Pompey as the 4th OF works for me. I say bye to Carrera because I do not like him as a player. Pompey IMO has way more potential. But I get that Carrera has +WAR.

 

For the infield, status quo pretty much. I guess you keep Morales as the DH because you have to. Maybe get rid of both Barney and Goins and use someone like Gurriel as the Travis backup. For *when* he gets hurt.

 

I'd like the Jays to offer Anderson a 2-year deal, and try to keep Estrada. Anderson and Biagini can be swing man, depending how they look out of ST.

 

The bullpen is actually kid of decent.

 

Of course I'd be open to signing an impact free agent SP, or trading for a +WAR second baseman. Maybe 1-2 impact bullpen arms.

 

I'd try to extend JD 5-years, including arb 4. But I do not know if JD would do that.

[Brownie19]

Tim Beckham would have been a perfect fit IMO, though it's too late now. Can't believe Tampa gave him away for nothing. Gurriel is likely that guy at some point. Barney has given the Jays -0.8 WAR this season. He's alright as a bench option, though don't want to see him playing everyday. Obviously injuries to Travis and Tulo made that happen, though I just hope the Jays are better prepared heading into next season because I don't want to see Goins or Barney playing everyday again.

 

Not saying this would have made a difference in terms of nabbing the 2nd wildcard spot, though still pretty appalling why the team never went out to acquire a MI at the deadline considering how bad the AL Wildcard was this season and when they likely would have come cheap. Someone like a Jed Lowrie, Neil Walker, Zach Cozart, Tim Beckham etc. wouldn't have cost a whole lot in terms of prospect capital and would have been huge upgrades over Goins & Barney right now.

 

This whole argument is incredibly flawed.

 

1. Before their breakouts this season, Zach Cozart and Tim Beckham would have only been a mild upgrade (if any) from Barney (both are the type of guy I'm talking about that you'd take a shot at and hope he takes a step forward. You now have to find the "next" guy to do that).

 

2. Neil Walker is a starter in MLB. You're not trading for a guy making $17M to be a bench player (especially since he can't play SS).

 

3. Jed Lowrie might be your best example, but prior to this season you would have been trading for a guy who's set to make $6.5M, coming off a -0.8 WAR season when you already have Barney making $2.9M coming off a 1.5 WAR season. Oh and he can't really play SS either.

 

As I said, if you want to find a better utility IFer for the 2018 season, you're looking to find the next Tim Beckham or Zack Cozart. That player is probably coming off a failed season or two with a team giving up on him. You have to trade for that guy and then hope he makes significant improvement. Or you could be looking for someone coming off a bad season, who's still owed some dough. Again, a risky move. These guys are not easy to find. The sure things are either on WS contending teams, or they are starters on other teams (or looking to be if they are a FA).

[jaysblue]

This whole argument is incredibly flawed.

 

1. Before their breakouts this season, Zach Cozart and Tim Beckham would have only been a mild upgrade (if any) from Barney (both are the type of guy I'm talking about that you'd take a shot at and hope he takes a step forward. You now have to find the "next" guy to do that).

 

2. Neil Walker is a starter in MLB. You're not trading for a guy making $17M to be a bench player (especially since he can't play SS).

 

3. Jed Lowrie might be your best example, but prior to this season you would have been trading for a guy who's set to make $6.5M, coming off a -0.8 WAR season when you already have Barney making $2.9M coming off a 1.5 WAR season. Oh and he can't really play SS either.

 

As I said, if you want to find a better utility IFer for the 2018 season, you're looking to find the next Tim Beckham or Zack Cozart. That player is probably coming off a failed season or two with a team giving up on him. You have to trade for that guy and then hope he makes significant improvement. Or you could be looking for someone coming off a bad season, who's still owed some dough. Again, a risky move. These guys are not easy to find. The sure things are either on WS contending teams, or they are starters on other teams (or looking to be if they are a FA).

 

I said the the Jays should have looked to acquire one of those guys at the DEADLINE this season! So no, my argument is not incredibly flawed.

 

Knowing both Tulo & Travis were gone for the year, it wouldn't have hurt the Jays long term by trading for one of those guys considering the price tag was pretty cheap. They would have been significant upgrades over Goins, Barney & Refs for the rest of the season. Jays at one point two weeks ago were only 3GB of a Wildcard spot.

[Jimcanuck]

Nah... "It hinges on Vlad Jr" - Jimcanuck

 

I never said that, asswipe

[Brownie19]

I said the the Jays should have looked to acquire one of those guys at the DEADLINE this season! So no, my argument is not incredibly flawed.

 

Knowing both Tulo & Travis were gone for the year, it wouldn't have hurt the Jays long term by trading for one of those guys considering the price tag was pretty cheap. They would have been significant upgrades over Goins, Barney & Refs for the rest of the season. Jays at one point two weeks ago were only 3GB of a Wildcard spot.

 

Wat? Why would the Jays acquire Neil Walker, who's owed another $4.7M this year and is a FA at the end of the year when we're not in the playoff hunt? The Reds would rightfully ask for a ton for Cozart, who's putting up a 4.3 WAR season. Beckham? Sure, although he's gone on an artificial tear (.449 BABIP) with the O's and clearly TB f***ed that one up. Lowrie - meh, whatever, career 101 wRC+ hitter who'll be 34 next year, can't play SS and will be owed $6M if you want him to be your backup IF in 2018 (while you'd still need someone to backup SS).

[Spanky99]

I never said that, asswipe

 

Mmmkay...