Toronto Blue Jays Rebuilding Thread

[xposbrad]

More like 8 months, but okay.

 

If they go for it again in 2018 then you need to delete the board

 

Go for what again? Last place? lol

[P2F]

[flafson]

We should really tank. As it stands now we have the number 6 pick I believe.

[Jonn]

We should really tank. As it stands now we have the number 6 pick I believe.

 

Team is doing a great job of losing a ton of games on its own.

[Laika]

Go for what again? Last place? lol

 

remember when the Red Sox went 69-93 in 2012 and then won the World Series the next year?

 

baseball is more random than people think

[Omar]

This rebuild thread will come down to semantics: rebuild vs retool, going for it vs blowing it up.

 

Reality is that Shatkins have a 5 year plan to rebuild the prospect pool while fielding a "competitive" team. They have already stated that they intend to field a "competitive" team every year if for nothing else than fear of killing the goose that laid the golden egg (attendance).

 

This team being old is not the sole reason they have less wins than every team in the AL save one; a lot of injuries coupled with a team of under performers.

 

Shapiro and company have been around long enough to say all the right things while pre-planning transition years (2016,17,18 and maybe 19) in the back room where they know they likely won't win but are good enough to maybe have a chance at a wildcard; until their prospects are major league ready and they can open the vault for elite talent.

[Dick_Pole]

We should really tank. As it stands now we have the number 6 pick I believe.

 

Beta male loser mentality seeps in this thread again!

 

"I should just really, really suck now...and in 5 years I'm magically going to get a hot chick to date me"

 

I guess the equivalent would be study hard, get a good job and in a decade buy some gold digger....except nowadays studying hard doesn't mean you'll get s*** all in the work force and good luck ever affording a home in the big city.

 

The point is you never know what the future brings. Losing doesn't guarantee winning down the road. All it guarantees is more losing in the near future. Any competent front office can go for it now as best they can AND build for the future at the same time. That is the expectation I have for Shapiro and Atkins.

[Dick_Pole]

This rebuild thread will come down to semantics: rebuild vs retool, going for it vs blowing it up.

 

Reality is that Shatkins have a 5 year plan to rebuild the prospect pool while fielding a "competitive" team. They have already stated that they intend to field a "competitive" team every year if for nothing else than fear of killing the goose that laid the golden egg (attendance).

 

This team being old is not the sole reason they have less wins than every team in the AL save one; a lot of injuries coupled with a team of under performers.

 

Shapiro and company have been around long enough to say all the right things while pre-planning transition years (2016,17,18 and maybe 19) in the back room where they know they likely won't win but are good enough to maybe have a chance at a wildcard; until their prospects are major league ready and they can open the vault for elite talent.

 

Happ, Estrada, Smith, Pearce, Smoak....all evidence of this FO's ability to fill the roster with warm bodies that produce without any long-term drain on the budget. Morales was the only mis-step so far and the production out of Smoak versus salary makes up for two Morales-sized mistakes. I expect more of the same over the next three years and at least 80-85 win teams until the lower minors players can hit the big leagues.

 

Defeatist attitudes like "the Jays need to tank", "free agents don't want to come to Toronto" and "the A.L. East is hard" is just sucker fans who drank the Ricciardi kool-aid and mistake 20 years of non-playoff teams as anything other than the complete bungling of the franchise by Ash, Godfrey, Ricciardi, Beeston and to a lesser extent Anthopoulos (I don't put him in the same category of suck as the other goofs I mentioned).

[Stangstag]

remember when the Red Sox went 69-93 in 2012 and then won the World Series the next year?

 

baseball is more random than people think

 

Yeeeeeup.

[flafson]

Beta male loser mentality seeps in this thread again!

 

"I should just really, really suck now...and in 5 years I'm magically going to get a hot chick to date me"

 

I guess the equivalent would be study hard, get a good job and in a decade buy some gold digger....except nowadays studying hard doesn't mean you'll get s*** all in the work force and good luck ever affording a home in the big city.

 

The point is you never know what the future brings. Losing doesn't guarantee winning down the road. All it guarantees is more losing in the near future. Any competent front office can go for it now as best they can AND build for the future at the same time. That is the expectation I have for Shapiro and Atkins.

 

We already lost the season, might make the most of it by getting a top 3 pick.

 

And I have a pretty decent job and a house, thank you very much.

[Omar]

Happ, Estrada, Smith, Pearce, Smoak....all evidence of this FO's ability to fill the roster with warm bodies that produce without any long-term drain on the budget. Morales was the only mis-step so far and the production out of Smoak versus salary makes up for two Morales-sized mistakes. I expect more of the same over the next three years and at least 80-85 win teams until the lower minors players can hit the big leagues.

 

Defeatist attitudes like "the Jays need to tank", "free agents don't want to come to Toronto" and "the A.L. East is hard" is just sucker fans who drank the Ricciardi kool-aid and mistake 20 years of non-playoff teams as anything other than the complete bungling of the franchise by Ash, Godfrey, Ricciardi, Beeston and to a lesser extent Anthopoulos (I don't put him in the same category of suck as the other goofs I mentioned).

 

Exactly. It's not every year that the best team in baseball wins it all (like 2016 Cubs). It would not surprise me if this team made the playoffs next year with 70% of the same roster. If you get in the dance as a wild card, you may end up leaving with the hottest girl. Just like we started this year 6-16 we could start next year 16-6. With a core of Stroman, Sanchez, Biagini, plus mr. 4 and mr. 5 it could easily happen, especially now that Tepera/Barnes have been tested in the fire and we have a guy named Osuna who is f***ing beast.

 

Remember after 2015 and everyone was fawning over the Royals (95 wins!) and their team makeup? Well they won 81 games the next year. Having a great year doesn't guarantee another one, and having a s*** year (Jays 2017) doesn't mean we are going to be s*** next year. Nothing new, that's just baseball.

Edited July 24, 2017 by Omar

[AdamGreenwood]

I think the issue here is that if trading Donaldson now isn't going to give them the type of return they want/need, then what's the point? If you're going to sell JD at 50 cents on the dollar than you can do that next year too. I don't want to look back 5 years from now and say "at least we got 3 s***** prospects for JD instead of losing him for nothing". Dammit, I want a real prospect or two. If you want to rebuild, you'll need to trade for real prospects. Otherwise you can just let them go for nothing and start from scratch after 2018. I mean, what the hell is the difference?

 

The thinking is that a year and a half of Donaldson is worth more than half a year of Donaldson.

Donaldson has been good for long enough, that GM's will see past the injury plagued half-season.

[Dick_Pole]

We already lost the season, might make the most of it by getting a top 3 pick.

 

And I have a pretty decent job and a house, thank you very much.

 

Yeah let's have the team go for 65 wins instead of 81 so it's harder for them to renew season tickets and attract free agents next year. All for the chance of a slightly better player hitting the roster in 6 years when any competent FO could have filled the roster with good players by then anyways. Great f***ing idea! Your employer should fire you for bad baseball analysis.

[Jimcanuck]

The only real question is whether to move JD now or not. He's the only player that makes sense (at least to some) to move now and get a nice return. Other players it makes sense to move such as Pillar, ain't gonna fetch much.

[Slade]

The only real question is whether to move JD now or not. He's the only player that makes sense (at least to some) to move now and get a nice return. Some other team would have to significantly overpay to get Osuna for example.

 

He's underperformed this season and clearly suffering an injury, I can't see the front office selling low on him.

[Ray]

So for all intents and purposes, this front office seemingly has their minds on competing next season. Whether you agree with that or not, that's probably what's going to happen. I think the more productive conversation would be what FA/trades we should target in the offseason/trade deadline.

 

We do have a lot of money coming off the books for next season. Even with all the arb salaries, it should come out to roughly ~$95-$100 million giving us around $65 million to spend (assuming payroll is the same as this season). $65 million to spend on two starters (or 1 if you want to go with Biagini or an in house option), a RF, and bullpen pieces. Perhaps even a good backup INF for Travis/Tulo/Donaldson insurance.

 

Thoughts/suggestions for FA or trade targets?

[Terminator]

Thoughts/suggestions for FA or trade targets?

 

I like Nunez and Chatwood.

[Bobthe4th]

So for all intents and purposes, this front office seemingly has their minds on competing next season. Whether you agree with that or not, that's probably what's going to happen. I think the more productive conversation would be what FA/trades we should target in the offseason/trade deadline.

 

We do have a lot of money coming off the books for next season. Even with all the arb salaries, it should come out to roughly ~$95-$100 million giving us around $65 million to spend (assuming payroll is the same as this season). $65 million to spend on two starters (or 1 if you want to go with Biagini or an in house option), a RF, and bullpen pieces. Perhaps even a good backup INF for Travis/Tulo/Donaldson insurance.

 

Thoughts/suggestions for FA or trade targets?

 

The free agent market is relatively weak this year - 2018 free agents

 

You know we'll be targeting Jay Bruce /s

[Ray]

The free agent market is relatively weak this year - 2018 free agents

 

You know we'll be targeting Jay Bruce /s

 

I could see us making a play for JD Martinez. We targeted him in the offseason and he can't receive a QO either now that he's been traded.

 

Lance Lynn would be fantastic. Stroman-Sanchez-Happ-Lynn would be a hell of a top 4.

[glory]

The thinking is that a year and a half of Donaldson is worth more than half a year of Donaldson.

Donaldson has been good for long enough, that GM's will see past the injury plagued half-season.

 

Maybe, but he has a 1.2 WAR and 111 wrc+ right now, plus is probably playing through some sort of injury. Aside from Boston there really isn't a contender looking for a 3B either. The timing doesn't feel right to move him. By this time next year if he is back to 2013-16 JD performance, then even for half a season he might be able to get similar value to what he might have now. It's a risk either way.

[glory]

So for all intents and purposes, this front office seemingly has their minds on competing next season. Whether you agree with that or not, that's probably what's going to happen. I think the more productive conversation would be what FA/trades we should target in the offseason/trade deadline.

 

We do have a lot of money coming off the books for next season. Even with all the arb salaries, it should come out to roughly ~$95-$100 million giving us around $65 million to spend (assuming payroll is the same as this season). $65 million to spend on two starters (or 1 if you want to go with Biagini or an in house option), a RF, and bullpen pieces. Perhaps even a good backup INF for Travis/Tulo/Donaldson insurance.

 

Thoughts/suggestions for FA or trade targets?

 

I don't think there is that much payroll room. Guaranteed deals next year are Martin, Smoak, Tulo, Pearce, Morales, Happ, and Guirrel. For those seven players it is a little over $75mm. Donaldson's arb case alone will take that figure close to $100m, and that's not factoring Stroman, Sanchez, Osuna, Pillar, and Travis in arbitration. Available dough is probably closer to $40-50mm than $65mm.

[Jimcanuck]

He's underperformed this season and clearly suffering an injury, I can't see the front office selling low on him.

 

That's one school of thought that I don't subscribe to. ML front offices are smart enough to know 2018 JD will be closer to 2016 JD, and that 2017 is not the real JD.

[John_Havok]

That's one school of thought that I don't subscribe to. ML front offices are smart enough to know 2018 JD will be closer to 2016 JD, and that 2017 is not the real JD.

 

They might know that, but they'll also use every ounce of leverage they have to not have to pay full retail price for him.

[xposbrad]

That's one school of thought that I don't subscribe to. ML front offices are smart enough to know 2018 JD will be closer to 2016 JD, and that 2017 is not the real JD.

 

Unless 2018 JD does what 2017 JD did. I think there's too much risk not trading him. He'll be 32 next year, there's a chance this is the new JD in terms of production. Teams will still have him next year, and hope he has a strong finish. You still might have a team trying to gamble this year knowing they have another year on him.

 

A> JD stays the same = you get less next year

B> JD gets injured = you get nothing

C> JD performs worse = you get even less

D> He performs better = less team control, teams still leary of 2017, he turns 32

 

The only reason you keep JD is not to get more trade value next year. It's to sell tickets, and give fans the false hope this will be a competitive team next year (when deep down we know it won't be possible unless Rogers goes to 200m and even then, it assumes we sign all the good FAs and everyone else exceeds expectations). Of course, Boston finished last then won the WS the following year, so PHI/CIN/TO could all win the WS next year lol.

[Brownie19]

I could see us making a play for JD Martinez. We targeted him in the offseason and he can't receive a QO either now that he's been traded.

 

Lance Lynn would be fantastic. Stroman-Sanchez-Happ-Lynn would be a hell of a top 4.

 

No way unless we move Morales so he can DH....he's a hack in the field.

[glory]

Jarrod Dyson is a free agent. Can play all three OF positions extremely well and is probably a 2-3 war everyday player. Teams don't usually pay big money for defence and he's in his 30's. Might be a reasonable two year contract type of player.

[puphood]

Eat some salary get rid of 2low, sell off JD maybe we break even with what ever scub we get back & he would be happier somewhere else, look for a catcher as what we got is sliding quickly and his back up is useless in every way.......The starting rotation that everyone was excited about absolutely has sucked all year with Stoman being the only one worth watching......keep the low cost players till we have someone worth putting out there. That would include these 3 studges Carrera, Goins and Barney.... and please keep Pearse out of the out field....Bautista has to go ......oh and by the way spend some money............doesn't sound to complex to me

[burlingtonbandit]

Eat some salary get rid of 2low, sell off JD maybe we break even with what ever scub we get back & he would be happier somewhere else, look for a catcher as what we got is sliding quickly and his back up is useless in every way.......The starting rotation that everyone was excited about absolutely has sucked all year with Stoman being the only one worth watching......keep the low cost players till we have someone worth putting out there. That would include these 3 studges Carrera, Goins and Barney.... and please keep Pearse out of the out field....Bautista has to go ......oh and by the way spend some money............doesn't sound to complex to me

 

Might want to hit the Enter button every now and then.

[jimedmonds]

what this team sorely needs is me in my mid-20s.

 

p.s. how am i not a hall of famer? i know not first ballot, but if kirby puckett is there...

[Jonn]

Jarrod Dyson is a free agent. Can play all three OF positions extremely well and is probably a 2-3 war everyday player. Teams don't usually pay big money for defence and he's in his 30's. Might be a reasonable two year contract type of player.

 

Would love to add Dyson. Definitely improves our outfield defence and brings a much needed element of speed. His presence might also finally let us punt Zeke to the moon. I really hope they trade him at the Deadline. They have to know he's s*** but might actually hold some value right now with control.