The Jose Bautista Thread

[King]

June

 

If he wants to sign with the Jays it doesn't matter when he does. That gives us an advantage over every other team.

 

Yes it does. We lose the compensation pick we would have received if he signed with another team if we sign him tomorrow

[BTS]

What's the projected amount of wins for a team of 0 WAR players that make the minimum? I'm trying to wrap my head around how an extra three wins on top of that baseline is worth $27 million.

 

48 or so wins for a replacement-level team.

[GD]

What's the projected amount of wins for a team of 0 WAR players that make the minimum? I'm trying to wrap my head around how an extra three wins on top of that baseline is worth $27 million.

 

It's not necessarily linear. The "win curve" looks a little like this:

 

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_dUvDAtaIzO0/S9KMrSjUSxI/AAAAAAAAAD0/IwQfjXEON7Q/s400/graph1b.jpg

 

Welcome!

[Laika]

What's the projected amount of wins for a team of 0 WAR players that make the minimum? I'm trying to wrap my head around how an extra three wins on top of that baseline is worth $27 million.

 

The hypothetical value of a win simply comes from how much teams demonstrably pay in free agency.

[Terminator]

What's the projected amount of wins for a team of 0 WAR players that make the minimum? I'm trying to wrap my head around how an extra three wins on top of that baseline is worth $27 million.

 

A team in that scenario would be better off spreading the money around.

[saskjayfan]

Yes it does. We lose the compensation pick we would have received if he signed with another team if we sign him tomorrow

 

If he's still on the market in March that means no one out there is going to sign him to a multi year deal and no one is going to lose the pick to sign him on a on year deal. At that point we will probably be able to get him on a one year 14 mil deal. If we don't, he waits it out till June and signs with a team that is contending and one that is likely in a race with the Jays. That 10 million dollar theoretical value will vanish, and the fact that we could have had him for 14 million instead of him playing for the opposition will really be a kick in the nuts.

[intentional wok]

What would it cost to build a ~95-win team strictly from free agency, assuming you're getting fair value/win and not cheaping out on glove-first players? $400M+?

[Grant77]

What would it cost to build a ~95-win team strictly from free agency, assuming you're getting fair value/win and not cheaping out on glove-first players? $400M+?

 

Well you would need 47 WAR multiplied by whatever dollar value you choose. At 8 million, that would be 376 million.

[burlingtonbandit]

What would it cost to build a ~95-win team strictly from free agency, assuming you're getting fair value/win and not cheaping out on glove-first players? $400M+?

 

Only chance you would be even able to do something like that would be after 2018. Most FA classes you could take the best player at each position and you still wouldn't have a 95 win team.

[KingKat]

Only chance you would be even able to do something like that would be after 2018. Most FA classes you could take the best player at each position and you still wouldn't have a 95 win team.

 

It would be nearly impossible to pull off. As you fill holes, the signings from previous years would start to decline creating new holes and payroll inefficiencies. You'd probably be caught in an endless spend cycle.

[Brownie19]

It would be nearly impossible to pull off. As you fill holes, the signings from previous years would start to decline creating new holes and payroll inefficiencies. You'd probably be caught in an endless spend cycle.

 

Like the Angels...

[BTS]

The team you could assemble after the 2018 season.

 

C - Yasmani Grandal

1B - Daniel Murphy

2B - Brian Dozier / Jean Segura

3B - Josh Donaldson / Manny Machado

SS - Manny Machado / Jean Segura

LF - A.J. Pollock

CF - Charlie Blackmon

RF - Bryce Harper

DH - Rotation of Dozier/Segura/Machado/Donaldson (keeps them all healthy)

 

SP - Clayton Kershaw

SP - Carlos Carrasco

SP - Matt Harvey

SP - David Price

SP - Dallas Keuchel

 

RP - Andrew Miller

RP - Kelvin Herrera

RP - Zach Britton

RP - Brad Brach

RP - Cody Allen

RP - Jeurys Familia

RP - Craig Kimbrel

 

Not bad.

[The Cats Ass]

The team you could assemble after the 2018 season.

 

C - Yasmani Grandal

1B - Daniel Murphy

2B - Brian Dozier / Jean Segura

3B - Josh Donaldson / Manny Machado

SS - Manny Machado / Jean Segura

LF - A.J. Pollock

CF - Charlie Blackmon

RF - Bryce Harper

DH - Rotation of Dozier/Segura/Machado/Donaldson (keeps them all healthy)

 

SP - Clayton Kershaw

SP - Carlos Carrasco

SP - Matt Harvey

SP - David Price

SP - Dallas Keuchel

 

RP - Andrew Miller

RP - Kelvin Herrera

RP - Zach Britton

RP - Carter Capps

RP - Cody Allen

RP - Craig Kimbrel

RP - Jeurys Familia or Brad Brach

[Governator]

I mean if people don't mind paying $1000/month for cable internet, we could try.

[The Cats Ass]

That comes to a WAR of 76.2. I just used last year's numbers. Except I used 2015 for Harper, Pollock, and Harvey(because I like to fudge numbers).

 

I also didn't include the RPs in my calculation, or a bench.

[Governator]

The way things are going, Jose Bautista might be available as a DH/bench bat for the dream team

[Jonn]

The way things are going, Jose Bautista might be available as a DH/bench bat for the dream team

 

As long as we get our pick I couldn't careless.

[Governator]

Latest On Market For Jose Bautista

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/latest-on-market-for-jose-bautista.html

[Krylian]

I mean if people don't mind paying $1000/month for cable internet, we could try.

 

But hasn't it already been said that the successes or failures of the Jays don't impact the core business...meaning that if the Jays lose money, your cable, etc. won't be impacted...and vice verse, if the revenues for core business go through the roof, it won't impact the Jays payroll. It's an island.

[Terminator]

The smoke right now is that he'll eventually end up back with us. We desperately need his bat.

[ChrisS]

The team you could assemble after the 2018 season.

 

C - Yasmani Grandal

1B - Daniel Murphy

2B - Brian Dozier / Jean Segura

3B - Josh Donaldson / Manny Machado

SS - Manny Machado / Jean Segura

LF - A.J. Pollock

CF - Charlie Blackmon

RF - Bryce Harper

DH - Rotation of Dozier/Segura/Machado/Donaldson (keeps them all healthy)

 

SP - Clayton Kershaw

SP - Carlos Carrasco

SP - Matt Harvey

SP - David Price

SP - Dallas Keuchel

 

RP - Andrew Miller

RP - Kelvin Herrera

RP - Zach Britton

RP - Carter Capps

RP - Cody Allen

RP - Craig Kimbrel

RP - Jeurys Familia or Brad Brach

Looks like a 125 win team give or take lol

[Laika]

The smoke right now is that he'll eventually end up back with us. We desperately need his bat.

 

Hard to imagine Toronto not signing ONE of JB or EE. They seem to have no suitors at all and Toronto has relevant holes.

 

Fill our holes, Shapiro!

[Terminator]

Hard to imagine Toronto not signing ONE of JB or EE. They seem to have no suitors at all and Toronto has relevant holes.

 

Fill our holes, Shapiro!

 

I wonder if they regret signing Morales so early at this point.

[Terminator]

Hard to imagine Toronto not signing ONE of JB or EE. They seem to have no suitors at all and Toronto has relevant holes.

 

Fill our holes, Shapiro!

 

Let's just complete the full circle and become the ultimate villain that the league needs.

 

Resign Bautista, trade for Puig, lower beer prices and let it rip.

[Laika]

I wonder if they regret signing Morales so early at this point.

 

Have to regret it a bit. Edwin @ 3/57 or whatever is so much better than Morales @ 3/33

 

But you can't fault them. It was reasonable to expect EE to get a $100M deal. I don't blame them for pouncing on some targets early in free agency. Clearly their internal analytics loves Morales.

[Laika]

Let's just complete the full circle and become the ultimate villain that the league needs.

 

Resign Bautista, trade for Puig, lower beer prices and let it rip.

 

I support all of this.

 

Toronto should do a plush tallboy giveaway day.

[BTS]

It's crazy that the Chens, Samardzijas, Leakes and Kennedys of the world got bigger deals last year than people are projecting EE to get in a weak FA market.

[Sammy225]

I wonder if they regret signing Morales so early at this point.

 

Hindsight is 20 20. You don't sign him and wait on EE and he gets his 5 year deal and someone comes and signs Morales and your left holding your dick. Not many people thought EE would have a tough time getting a good suitor.

[Terminator]

Hindsight is 20 20. You don't sign him and wait on EE and he gets his 5 year deal and someone comes and signs Morales and your left holding your dick. Not many people thought EE would have a tough time getting a good suitor.

 

Yep I agree but the industry consensus at the time was that we signed him for a year too long and it had pretty tepid support on this board. Hindsight is 20/20 but at the time it was a little bit puzzling and with hindsight that one looks like a mistake.

[TholesWeirdEye]

I wonder if they regret signing Morales so early at this point.

 

I think they may have jumped the gun a bit on the Morales signing, but i'm sure they thought the demand for EE/JB would be bigger than what is happening right now. Although 3/33 for Morales isn't bad, a 2 year deal would look better.