Offseason Roster Thread 2016-17

[Terminator]

Age 31: 2017: $13M: 3.1 WAR

Age 32: 2018: $14M: 2.6 WAR

Age 33: 2019: $15M: 2.1 WAR

Age 34: 2020: $17M: 1.6 WAR

Age 35: 2021: $17M: 1.1 WAR

 

If you buy in to the WAR aging curve above, he'd provide PLENTY of surplus value on the first three years of the deal. The fourth year gets a little shaky and the last year he's probably a negative asset but inflation would take the sting out of it some.

 

That 13M number in the first year is pretty sexy to me as well. We could easily fill all our other holes without breaking the bank IMO and Bautista wouldn't even be out of the realm of possibility for LF at that point. We'd have a really good team.

[Stangstag]

2017: 13M 3.1 WAR

2018: 14M 2.6 WAR

2019: 15M 2.1 WAR

2020: 17M 1.6 WAR

2021: 17M 1.1 WAR

 

If you buy in to the WAR aging curve above, he'd provide PLENTY of surplus value on the first three years of the deal. The fourth year gets a little shaky and the last year he's probably a negative asset but inflation would take the sting out of it some.

 

That 13M number in the first year is pretty sexy to me as well. We could easily fill all our other holes without breaking the bank IMO and Bautista wouldn't even be out of the realm of possibility for LF at that point. We'd have a really good team.

 

Only problem is that steamer projects him for 2.4 WAR next year... I'm not sure if he'll come close to his 2016 numbers again. But his asking price isn't outrageous, and we'll have Martin off the books for the last couple years of Fowler's contract so it could easily work.

[Orgfiller]

Would 5 for 80 be so bad? Not much worse than 4 for 70.

 

The AAV is nice, 15 mil a year is only 1.7 WAR necessary for it to be a wash. Backend the deal a little bit and let inflation do it's work.

 

Remember to account for the value of the lost draft pick. I'd probably be okay with that offer regardless, just pointing out that the internal evaluations could have a 5/80 contract closer to 5/90-100 rather than the raw dollar figure on the surface when accounting for the draft pick.

[Abomination]

Fowler wants 5/80, I think i'd be comfortable with that. He'll be 35 by the end of the deal... He's always been a great OBP guy and its not like he'll forget how to take a walk. Defense won't be any worse than Bautista's by the end of the contract. He's a perfect fit for this team right now, and we'll need a guy with his skillset if we want to seriously compete against Boston/New York

 

Yeah, I agree. If giving him the 5/80 gets him to sign right now, do it. It's a reasonable price.

[Grant77]

2017: 13M 3.1 WAR

2018: 14M 2.6 WAR

2019: 15M 2.1 WAR

2020: 17M 1.6 WAR

2021: 17M 1.1 WAR

 

If you buy in to the WAR aging curve above, he'd provide PLENTY of surplus value on the first three years of the deal. The fourth year gets a little shaky and the last year he's probably a negative asset but inflation would take the sting out of it some.

 

That 13M number in the first year is pretty sexy to me as well. We could easily fill all our other holes without breaking the bank IMO and Bautista wouldn't even be out of the realm of possibility for LF at that point. We'd have a really good team.

 

That looks good when you use a 3.1 WAR projection, but fangraphs has him at 2.2 WAR. He's been in that range for 5 of the last 6 seasons, except 2016.

 

2017: 13M 2.2 WAR

2018: 14M 1.7 WAR

2019: 15M 1.2 WAR

2020: 17M 0.7 WAR

2021: 17M 0.2 WAR

 

That looks a little less rosy.

[RealAccountant]

Right now we are projected to get 1.2 WAR from our corner outfielders (Pompey, Upton, Carrera). We have to think that an improvement here is possible. Would it be too much for Shatkins to improve our Corner OF with 5 WAR?

[G-Snarls]

Just f***ing get him already. Shatkins is obsessed with mid-market team value contracts. It's okay to slightly overpay here and there.

 

Yes. When you have one colossal need like here. A quality OF who can leadoff.

[Terminator]

Only problem is that steamer projects him for 2.4 WAR next year... I'm not sure if he'll come close to his 2016 numbers again. But his asking price isn't outrageous, and we'll have Martin off the books for the last couple years of Fowler's contract so it could easily work.

 

Steamer thinks his defense is s***, hence the low WAR.

 

There is a big debate about that. He's been pretty bad in the past but was better this year, some think better positioning is mostly what he needed. Prior to playing with the Cubs he played roughly the third most shallow CF in the league. Maddon had him playing deeper and his defense improved greatly.

 

If the Jays analytics department thinks his defense sucks then I'd back off and stick to 4 for 60 something. But if he's near average as some believe then I'd be all over him at 5 for 80.

[glory]

I don't remember the quote but Shapiro was on Tim and Sid yesterday and alluded to how important it is to go into the off season with internal evaluations of market value and not going over it. I think they will stick with 4/60 and either lose him to the Cards or get him at that price.

[Brownie19]

That looks good when you use a 3.1 WAR projection, but fangraphs has him at 2.2 WAR. He's been in that range for 5 of the last 6 seasons, except 2016.

 

2017: 13M 2.2 WAR

2018: 14M 1.7 WAR

2019: 15M 1.2 WAR

2020: 17M 0.7 WAR

2021: 17M 0.2 WAR

 

That looks a little less rosy.

 

How much does his -20.6 DEF ranking in 2014 affect his overall WAR? I thought I read that was a positioning issue that the Cubs corrected. Another way to ask this is what would his WAR have been in 2014 if his DEF was around 0.0 (like it was in 2013, 2015 and 2016)? 2015 was one of his best years to date at the plate, so I'd have to assume he would have been 3.5+ WAR. That positioning issue in Houston that one year is probably skewing Steamers projections.

 

Pretend he's coming off 3.5, 3.3 and 4.7 WAR seasons....it makes you feel all warm and fuzzy inside to think we have a shot at this guy - who's a great fit in our lineup and fills a massive need.

[Governator]

Steamer thinks his defense is s***, hence the low WAR.

 

There is a big debate about that. He's been pretty bad in the past but was better this year, some think better positioning is mostly what he needed. Prior to playing with the Cubs he played roughly the third most shallow CF in the league. Maddon had him playing deeper and his defense improved greatly.

 

If the Jays analytics department thinks his defense sucks then I'd back off and stick to 4 for 60 something. But if he's near average as some believe then I'd be all over him at 5 for 80.

 

 

Not to mention he is most likely average at worst in the corners. I don't know how good is arm is but at least he'd have the range that pylons like Bautista/Saunders don't. Be nice to hear less "Little Looooper, thatsch gonna drop" from Buck.

[G-Snarls]

Steamer thinks his defense is s***, hence the low WAR.

 

There is a big debate about that. He's been pretty bad in the past but was better this year, some think better positioning is mostly what he needed. Prior to playing with the Cubs he played roughly the third most shallow CF in the league. Maddon had him playing deeper and his defense improved greatly.

 

If the Jays analytics department thinks his defense sucks then I'd back off and stick to 4 for 60 something. But if he's near average as some believe then I'd be all over him at 5 for 80.

 

He also wouldn't be playing CF here

 

I wonder if that matter to him?

 

It certainly matter to the Jays as his skills should play fine in a corner OF spot

 

He'd be backup CF to Pillar in case of injury too which is nice since Pompey seems undesired

[Brownie19]

I don't remember the quote but Shapiro was on Tim and Sid yesterday and alluded to how important it is to go into the off season with internal evaluations of market value and not going over it. I think they will stick with 4/60 and either lose him to the Cards or get him at that price.

 

I like this approach if there's a Plan B. If Plan B is Jose 3 years $50M then let's give Fowler an extra $10M.

[BTS]

I'm in on Fowler at 5/80.

[Terminator]

Not to mention he is most likely average at worst in the corners. I don't know how good is arm is but at least he'd have the range that pylons like Bautista/Saunders don't. Be nice to hear less "Little Looooper, thatsch gonna drop" from Buck.

 

Yeah that's the other thing. Could he get an Eaton like rise in defensive value from switching from CF to RF or LF? Eaton wasn't very good in CF but in RF he was Jason Heyward-esque.

[Laika]

Age 31: 2017: $13M: 3.1 WAR

Age 32: 2018: $14M: 2.6 WAR

Age 33: 2019: $15M: 2.1 WAR

Age 34: 2020: $17M: 1.6 WAR

Age 35: 2021: $17M: 1.1 WAR

 

If you buy in to the WAR aging curve above, he'd provide PLENTY of surplus value on the first three years of the deal. The fourth year gets a little shaky and the last year he's probably a negative asset but inflation would take the sting out of it some.

 

That 13M number in the first year is pretty sexy to me as well. We could easily fill all our other holes without breaking the bank IMO and Bautista wouldn't even be out of the realm of possibility for LF at that point. We'd have a really good team.

 

That looks good when you use a 3.1 WAR projection, but fangraphs has him at 2.2 WAR. He's been in that range for 5 of the last 6 seasons, except 2016.

 

2017: 13M 2.2 WAR

2018: 14M 1.7 WAR

2019: 15M 1.2 WAR

2020: 17M 0.7 WAR

2021: 17M 0.2 WAR

 

That looks a little less rosy.

 

You're both aging him too hard. The -0.5 WAR decline per season doesn't really start UNTIL around age 35. At 30 to 31 Fowler's expected decline is smaller, probably -0.1 or -0.2.

[Terminator]

You're both aging him too hard. The -0.5 WAR decline per season doesn't really start UNTIL around age 35. At 30 to 31 Fowler's expected decline is smaller, probably -0.1 or -0.2.

 

Fangraphs assumes the following age curve for him:

 

Aging Curve: +0.25 WAR/yr (18-27), 0 WAR/yr (28-30),-0.5 WAR/yr (31-37),-0.75 WAR/yr (> 37)

 

So that's wrong?

[Laika]

Fangraphs assumes the following age curve for him:

 

So that's wrong?

 

They're making that assumption for the sake of simplicity. What article is that from?

 

The aging curve actually looks like a curve. So, we're allowed to use it in a more particular way with particular players.

 

http://colgate.edu/portaldata/imagegallerywww/21c0d002-4098-4995-941f-9ae8013632ee/ImageGallery/2012/the-impact-of-age-on-baseball-players-performance.pdf

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/how-do-baseball-players-age-part-1/

[Terminator]

They're making that assumption for the sake of simplicity. What article is that from?

 

The aging curve actually looks like a curve. So, we're allowed to use it in a more particular way with particular players.

 

http://colgate.edu/portaldata/imagegallerywww/21c0d002-4098-4995-941f-9ae8013632ee/ImageGallery/2012/the-impact-of-age-on-baseball-players-performance.pdf

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/how-do-baseball-players-age-part-1/

 

This one: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dexter-fowler-should-age-well-regardless-of-the-defense/

 

Well if his curve isn't that extreme then it makes it look even better. On a 5 for 80 Fowler could give us a shitload of surplus value. I'll even be more agressive than what you suggest and the deal looks pretty fantastic.

 

Age 31: 2017: $13M: 3.1 WAR

Age 32: 2018: $14M: 2.9 WAR

Age 33: 2019: $15M: 2.5 WAR

Age 34: 2020: $17M: 2.0 WAR

Age 35: 2021: $17M: 1.5 WAR

[UWHabs]

Would be tempted to go more all-in with the extra years to keep the AAV down. So give Fowler 5/80 (or maybe only 5/75), and give JB something like 4/52 and tell him he can retire as a Jay. Deal Upton off to anyone who will take his contract, and I can live with that lineup overall.

[King]

Timmy Lopes could play himself into a decent depth middle infielder by midseason

[crmr]

Fangraphs assumes the following age curve for him:

 

 

 

So that's wrong?

 

They bucket them, but you can imagine someone at the lower end of that scale ages less than someone at the higher end, hence why it's too high for Fowler

[Laika]

This one: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dexter-fowler-should-age-well-regardless-of-the-defense/

 

Oh, it's just one author's napkin assumptions.

 

This is really the grand problem with $/WAR analysis of baseball contracts. You can assume so many different things and fudge the calculus so that disparate conclusions on the same deal land in different area codes.

 

I wish Fangraphs wasn't so nonchalant about it. They should just build a rigorous machine, justify all the cogs, and plug players into it.

[Rusty_Savage]

Would be tempted to go more all-in with the extra years to keep the AAV down. So give Fowler 5/80 (or maybe only 5/75), and give JB something like 4/52 and tell him he can retire as a Jay. Deal Upton off to anyone who will take his contract, and I can live with that lineup overall.

 

Upton is basically free

[Terminator]

Oh, it's just one author's napkin assumptions.

 

This is really the grand problem with $/WAR analysis of baseball contracts. You can assume so many different things and fudge the calculus so that disparate conclusions on the same deal land in different area codes.

 

I wish Fangraphs wasn't so nonchalant about it. They should just build a rigorous machine, justify all the cogs, and plug players into it.

 

Yeah I agree. They should have a baseline set of assumptions and all writers should use those assumptions. If they want to deviate from those assumptions no problem, just make a disclaimer.

 

But to just start throwing half win per season decline for 31 year old players it gets confusing.

[RogersCanSuckMyBlank]

Just trying to read through the lines but it seems like the Jays want Fowler and that Bautista could be the fallback plan.

 

5 years for Fowler? I think i prefer JoeyBats for sure at 2 years and maybe 3 ?

[RealAccountant]

5 years for Fowler? I think i prefer JoeyBats for sure at 2 years and maybe 3 ?

 

Why not both. That will improve our WAR by 5 and project us at 89-90 wins. Right now we are getting nothing out of the corner outfielders

[RogersCanSuckMyBlank]

Why not both. That will improve our WAR by 5 and project us at 89-90 wins. Right now we are getting nothing out of the corner outfielders

 

Would take em both, just doesn't sound or look like the funds are available to archive this scenario.

 

Truthfully, i don't think we sign any of Bats, EE or Fowler and instead spread our money around on guys like Moss, Saunders or Revere and BP arms.

[L54]

Sign Fowler

Sign Edwin

Trade for Seth Smith

Buy a RP at the deadline

 

Plan the parade.

[Abomination]

Would take em both, just doesn't sound or look like the funds are available to archive this scenario.

 

Truthfully, i don't think we sign any of Bats, EE or Fowler and instead spread our money around on guys like Moss, Saunders or Revere and BP arms.

 

I really like Moss as a target, but as the secondary piece to picking up Fowler or Bats, not in place of them.