Offseason Roster Thread 2016-17

[KingKat]

Guess so. Miss when Internet wasn't big and would just watch headline sports everyday and not all this bs rumour s*** online.

 

Maybe it's just me but it seems like you could pretty easy filter this out of your life if you're not interested. I used to have The Score app and I got sick of all their troll bait stories about the Jays and I just uninstalled it and installed MLB AtBat instead.

[glory]

Nats and Pirates apparently discussed a deal for Cutch at the deadline according to Rosenthal. Seems like a pretty good trade target for the Jays, but no clue what the Pirates would want. They'd be selling low.

[Mittens87]

I get mlb app notifications. I Know any real news will come up there. Can't help myself from the click bait. I worked away in mining camps/travelled around for past ten years and couldn't follow a whole season of mlb until now, since 2006. Like finding an old love for me. Forget how everything is with the baseball media

[Stangstag]

Nats and Pirates apparently discussed a deal for Cutch at the deadline according to Rosenthal. Seems like a pretty good trade target for the Jays, but no clue what the Pirates would want. They'd be selling low.

 

Gotta think a trade for Cutch would have to include one of Travis/Stroman/Sanchez. Maybe something like Travis + Alford? I wouldn't do that trade. Cutch was pretty bad last year.

 

If we could get Cutch for a package based around Pompey, i'd be all for it. But I don't see that happening.

[G-Snarls]

Gotta think a trade for Cutch would have to include one of Travis/Stroman/Sanchez. Maybe something like Travis + Alford? I wouldn't do that trade. Cutch was pretty bad last year.

 

If we could get Cutch for a package based around Pompey, i'd be all for it. But I don't see that happening.

 

Yeah. Pirates would probably want a major leaguer plus prospects even though he had a bad year.

[SAAviour]

Add Cutch and Puig...so much risk, but so enticing and exciting!

[GD]

Gotta think a trade for Cutch would have to include one of Travis/Stroman/Sanchez. Maybe something like Travis + Alford? I wouldn't do that trade. Cutch was pretty bad last year.

 

If we could get Cutch for a package based around Pompey, i'd be all for it. But I don't see that happening.

 

lol @ not doing Travis + Alford for Cutch. Christ.

[King]

Maybe it's just me but it seems like you could pretty easy filter this out of your life if you're not interested. I used to have The Score app and I got sick of all their troll bait stories about the Jays and I just uninstalled it and installed MLB AtBat instead.

 

I never browse websites like TSN or Sportsnet. Twitter for me and then MLBTR has all the info one needs. And mlb at bat app for scores.

[Orgfiller]

Gotta think a trade for Cutch would have to include one of Travis/Stroman/Sanchez. Maybe something like Travis + Alford? I wouldn't do that trade. Cutch was pretty bad last year.

 

If we could get Cutch for a package based around Pompey, i'd be all for it. But I don't see that happening.

 

I think you have a pretty bad misconception of McCutchen's value. Yes, he had one bad season, but that was preceded by a string of seasons where he was one of the best players in baseball. He is still on a very team-friendly deal ($14M for next season and a $14.5M team option for 2018) and he only just turned 30. I would trade all of Travis, Alford, Pompey and probably any two other prospects not named Vlad Guerrero Jr. (actually I probably would include him, McCutchen is really good) for him in a heartbeat. He currently projects for around 3.5 WAR and I don't think anyone would be surprised to see him pass the 5 win mark again.

[Mittens87]

Thanks for the advice. Where is best place for just general great articles?

[King]

Thanks for the advice. Where is best place for just general great articles?

 

Fangraphs. Not as good as it once but still informative for the most part. The hardball times is good too I think though I don't read it much myself.

[G-Snarls]

I think you have a pretty bad misconception of McCutchen's value. Yes, he had one bad season, but that was preceded by a string of seasons where he was one of the best players in baseball. He is still on a very team-friendly deal ($14M for next season and a $14.5M team option for 2018) and he only just turned 30. I would trade all of Travis, Alford, Pompey and probably any two other prospects not named Vlad Guerrero Jr. (actually I probably would include him, McCutchen is really good) for him in a heartbeat. He currently projects for around 3.5 WAR and I don't think anyone would be surprised to see him pass the 5 win mark again.

 

The package for McCutchen apparently was to start with Victor Robles

[Spanky99]

It's from Kenny Ken too... interesting. They disagreed on value...

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/pittsburgh-pirates-andrew-mccutchen-washington-nationals-trade-110916

[Stangstag]

I think you have a pretty bad misconception of McCutchen's value. Yes, he had one bad season, but that was preceded by a string of seasons where he was one of the best players in baseball. He is still on a very team-friendly deal ($14M for next season and a $14.5M team option for 2018) and he only just turned 30. I would trade all of Travis, Alford, Pompey and probably any two other prospects not named Vlad Guerrero Jr. (actually I probably would include him, McCutchen is really good) for him in a heartbeat. He currently projects for around 3.5 WAR and I don't think anyone would be surprised to see him pass the 5 win mark again.

 

I'm not comfortable giving up 4 more years of a great young MLB player in Travis, and one of our top prospects for another guy over age 30.

 

Yes, I know how good McCutchen WAS, but there is not guarantee he bounces back. He was A LOT worse than his career norms last year. A LOT worse. Couple that with the fact he's on the wrong side of 30, I would be cautious to give up Travis + Alford for him.

 

You look at guys like Tulo and Martin, who have gotten worse past age 30. McCutchen might now be in that group. This team needs to get younger, not older.

[Stangstag]

lol @ not doing Travis + Alford for Cutch. Christ.

 

Go blow yourself

[Abomination]

I'm not comfortable giving up 4 more years of a great young MLB player in Travis, and one of our top prospects for another guy over age 30.

 

Yes, I know how good McCutchen WAS, but there is not guarantee he bounces back. He was A LOT worse than his career norms last year. A LOT worse. Couple that with the fact he's on the wrong side of 30, I would be cautious to give up Travis + Alford for him.

 

You look at guys like Tulo and Martin, who have gotten worse past age 30. McCutchen might now be in that group. This team needs to get younger, not older.

 

McCutchen had problems with a swollen thumb last year (apparently he was gripping the bat a different way or something). I don't know why his defense was worse, whether it was aging or a nagging injury. Moving him to a corner outfield slot would probably be in the cards anyway with Pillar in center.

[Farm]

I would trade all of Travis, Alford, Pompey and probably any two other prospects not named Vlad Guerrero Jr. (actually I probably would include him, McCutchen is really good) for him in a heartbeat. He currently projects for around 3.5 WAR and I don't think anyone would be surprised to see him pass the 5 win mark again.

 

????

 

McCutchen was an amazing player. He is also 30 years old. His BB% fell, K% fell, ISO fell, BABIP fell, and his Defense fell. Soft% increased, Med% and Hard% all increased. Scarily enough, his liner rate only fell from 23.5% to 22.5% while his IFFB% increased from 5.9% to 12.6%.

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1667[/ATTACH]

 

Take a look at his plate discipline. The scary thing is that nothing's really changed. His swing rates and contact rates all look reasonably close to his past years. So the question is why did he drop off a cliff?

 

The red flag here is that he had a massive decline on his defense AND his offense. If someone cared enough they could go and find a list of star players who averaged 5+ WAR in his previous 4 years with over 5 thousand PA, above 28 years old (just to be fair), experienced a massive decline in both offense and defense and then see how these players bounced back the following year.

 

Now that's too much work for me, but I think the simplest answer here is a physical decline. The question is whether he was hiding an injury that he could recover from or it was just gradual wear and tear from 5000 plate appearances, and your belief of that is probably where differences in his future value arise. I just believe aging curves are a thing for a reason.

 

Let's do some contract/surplus value calculations, without discounting since I am too lazy to. Going to assume 8million / WAR as well which seems reasonable to me.

 

Having said all that, let's say McCutchen drinks from the elixir of youth and bounces back in a dramatic way, and finishes with 6 WAR in 2017 and 2018. With 2 years/28.5 million, that's around 68 million of surplus value.

 

Now let's project that Travis gets the same 2.5 WAR from his two injury shortened seasons for the next four years (funny thing, just noticed that Travis is at 1.000 of service time). That's 80 million in value, and if we project out arbritation salary, that's probably already close to the 68 million the McCutchen brings to the table.

 

But yes, let's trade away Alford (~15 million surplus value with a reasonable floor due to defensive value), Pompey (~10 million surplus value if we believe John Manuel in saying that he would still be around a top 100 prospect). Why not trade away two more prospects including Vlad (~20-30 million surplus value) too right?

 

In conclusion, what you proposed was not very smart. And diversification is also a thing.

[burlingtonbandit]

I think you have a pretty bad misconception of McCutchen's value. Yes, he had one bad season, but that was preceded by a string of seasons where he was one of the best players in baseball. He is still on a very team-friendly deal ($14M for next season and a $14.5M team option for 2018) and he only just turned 30. I would trade all of Travis, Alford, Pompey and probably any two other prospects not named Vlad Guerrero Jr. (actually I probably would include him, McCutchen is really good) for him in a heartbeat. He currently projects for around 3.5 WAR and I don't think anyone would be surprised to see him pass the 5 win mark again.

 

I like Cutch but there's no way I trade Travis, Alford, Pompey and Vlad for him. Maybe if he had 4 years of control but he's only got 2 years left like you said and you still have to pay 29 million. Even if you think he's a 4-4.5 Win player you only gain 2 wins from that deal over Travis plus you have to now find a 2nd baseman which is much harder hole to fill than a corner OF.

 

Theres ton of OF FA out there.

[GD]

Go blow yourself

 

I like the part where you tried to use "OVER 30" as some sort of deterrent like he's Bautista. He's 30... and 1 f***ing month lmao. He's 10 months younger than Donaldson. I guess we shouldn't invest too much in him, hm?

[G-Snarls]

Now that's too much work for me, but I think the simplest answer here is a physical decline. The question is whether he was hiding an injury that he could recover from or it was just gradual wear and tear from 5000 plate appearances, and your belief of that is probably where differences in his future value arise. I just believe aging curves are a thing for a reason.

 

In the 90s he probably doesn't decline like this... There were *options* that most players were using

[saskjayfan]

I think you have a pretty bad misconception of McCutchen's value. Yes, he had one bad season, but that was preceded by a string of seasons where he was one of the best players in baseball. He is still on a very team-friendly deal ($14M for next season and a $14.5M team option for 2018) and he only just turned 30. I would trade all of Travis, Alford, Pompey and probably any two other prospects not named Vlad Guerrero Jr. (actually I probably would include him, McCutchen is really good) for him in a heartbeat. He currently projects for around 3.5 WAR and I don't think anyone would be surprised to see him pass the 5 win mark again.

 

2 years of McCutchen isn't worth getting rid of 4 top prospects and Travis....give me a break.

[saskjayfan]

anybody else think Jose is going to accept the qualifying offer.

[G-Snarls]

anybody else think Jose is going to accept the qualifying offer.

 

I sort of hope so but I don't think he will

 

There's almost certainly a 3 year deal for at least 12-15M per season for him out there somewhere and I think he'd take it over the QO

 

More years @ less AAV

 

[/speculation]

[Stangstag]

I like the part where you tried to use "OVER 30" as some sort of deterrent like he's Bautista. He's 30... and 1 f***ing month lmao. He's 10 months younger than Donaldson. I guess we shouldn't invest too much in him, hm?

 

When you have a season as bad as Cutch's 2016, you have to be wary. I'm iffy about signing Donaldson for 7-8 years right now. If Donaldson put up a 1 WAR season playing 150 games next year, I would not be thinking about a 7-8 year extension.

[Stangstag]

I like the part where you tried to use "OVER 30" as some sort of deterrent like he's Bautista. He's 30... and 1 f***ing month lmao. He's 10 months younger than Donaldson. I guess we shouldn't invest too much in him, hm?

 

Giving up young assets for older players is not a good plan in the long run. You want to destroy the farm and have to wait another 5 years to rebuild?

 

What if we trade Travis/Alford/+ for Cutch and he still sucks? Not worth the risk

[BTS]

????

 

McCutchen was an amazing player. He is also 30 years old. His BB% fell, K% fell, ISO fell, BABIP fell, and his Defense fell. Soft% increased, Med% and Hard% all increased. Scarily enough, his liner rate only fell from 23.5% to 22.5% while his IFFB% increased from 5.9% to 12.6%.

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1667[/ATTACH]

 

Take a look at his plate discipline. The scary thing is that nothing's really changed. His swing rates and contact rates all look reasonably close to his past years. So the question is why did he drop off a cliff?

 

The red flag here is that he had a massive decline on his defense AND his offense. If someone cared enough they could go and find a list of star players who averaged 5+ WAR in his previous 4 years with over 5 thousand PA, above 28 years old (just to be fair), experienced a massive decline in both offense and defense and then see how these players bounced back the following year.

 

Now that's too much work for me, but I think the simplest answer here is a physical decline. The question is whether he was hiding an injury that he could recover from or it was just gradual wear and tear from 5000 plate appearances, and your belief of that is probably where differences in his future value arise. I just believe aging curves are a thing for a reason.

 

Let's do some contract/surplus value calculations, without discounting since I am too lazy to. Going to assume 8million / WAR as well which seems reasonable to me.

 

Having said all that, let's say McCutchen drinks from the elixir of youth and bounces back in a dramatic way, and finishes with 6 WAR in 2017 and 2018. With 2 years/28.5 million, that's around 68 million of surplus value.

 

Now let's project that Travis gets the same 2.5 WAR from his two injury shortened seasons for the next four years (funny thing, just noticed that Travis is at 1.000 of service time). That's 80 million in value, and if we project out arbritation salary, that's probably already close to the 68 million the McCutchen brings to the table.

 

But yes, let's trade away Alford (~15 million surplus value with a reasonable floor due to defensive value), Pompey (~10 million surplus value if we believe John Manuel in saying that he would still be around a top 100 prospect). Why not trade away two more prospects including Vlad (~20-30 million surplus value) too right?

 

In conclusion, what you proposed was not very smart. And diversification is also a thing.

 

If the FO has fairly reliable reason to believe that McCutchen will bounce back to elite level next year, all of these calculations can be waived away by arguing that the 5 wins from McCutchen are wins 84-88 in the next two years, which makes them worth a lot more than 8M a piece.

[John_Havok]

If the FO has fairly reliable reason to believe that McCutchen will bounce back to elite level next year, all of these calculations can be waived away by arguing that the 5 wins from McCutchen are wins 84-88 in the next two years, which makes them worth a lot more than 8M a piece.

 

I was about to post that same thing. With where the Jays are on the win curve, adding 5-6 wins is worth more than 8 million per.

 

But cudos to the poster for laying out an argument that didn't boil down to "omg he's over 30 and just had a bad year"

[LGBJ29]

Agreed to the above posters. Aside from 1 bad year he's been very consistently good. I dont think its unreasonable to expect him to bounce back to a 5-6 win season for the next couple years

[KingKat]

Atm, Valbuena actually projects for a higher wOBA than Desmond. I really can't wrap my head around the keenness to buy high on Desmond.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Question : if we DFA'd SMOAK right now what takes place action Wise?

 

Also what would we be on the hook for total contract less 500,000 or just this year less 500,000 ?