Offseason Roster Thread 2016-17

[Spanky99]

I've been killed/thrilled....

[burlingtonbandit]

TV revenue figures are constantly rehashed around here, but all we can do is guess. What we DO know, is that the advertising rates we get here in Canada is a fraction of what they get in the States for the same number of viewers. Also, merchandise sales are part of revenue sharing, as are 31% of other local revenue. Of the revenue sharing, I don't think we get the full amount of that back either because we're in a bigger market. I think we also outsource the concessions (no idea why), so probably don't get much if anything extra from that.

 

Also, keep in mind with New York that the Yankees managed to get a deal pushed through with YES network that is insane. Basically everyone in New York with cable has to pay for YES whether they want it or not, and I think it's $10 or $20 a month that they pay. I have no idea how anyone was willing to let that get passed.

 

Well Rogers paid $500 Million for the NHL deal so that should give you a better comparison to what a Canadian viewer is worth. You could argue the Blue Jays deal is more valuable since its 162 games/year plus postseason and ST. I think Rogers gets 3 nights/ week for the NHL season with a doubleheader for Saturday and Wednesdays.

 

I don't think anyone is claiming the Blue Jays should get $500 Million for their TV deal from Rogers but $150-200 Million seems to be more attainable and Rogers would still be raking in the $.

 

I think I read the dynamic ticket pricing was worth an extra $20 Million so that should help bump it up as well. The thing I don't understand is if Rogers can see the benefits of what a winning team provides so why would they not spend an extra 30 or 40 Million to keep that momentum going?

[Abomination]

Well Rogers paid $500 Million for the NHL deal so that should give you a better comparison to what a Canadian viewer is worth. You could argue the Blue Jays deal is more valuable since its 162 games/year plus postseason and ST. I think Rogers gets 3 nights/ week for the NHL season with a doubleheader for Saturday and Wednesdays.

 

I don't think anyone is claiming the Blue Jays should get $500 Million for their TV deal from Rogers but $150-200 Million seems to be more attainable and Rogers would still be raking in the $.

 

I think I read the dynamic ticket pricing was worth an extra $20 Million so that should help bump it up as well. The thing I don't understand is if Rogers can see the benefits of what a winning team provides so why would they not spend an extra 30 or 40 Million to keep that momentum going?

 

I think their deal gives them exclusive, region free rights for games involving Canadian teams on those nights, but also gives them non-exclusive rights to all the other games as well (among other things).

[Spanky99]

How about that ball game?

[burlingtonbandit]

I think their deal gives them exclusive, region free rights for games involving Canadian teams on those nights, but also gives them non-exclusive rights to all the other games as well (among other things).

 

Well it doesn't really matter what rights it gives because the Blue Jays draw comparable numbers in terms of viewers. HNIC usually is around 2 million (which combines all the games across CBC and SN) and the Sunday night in the 500-700K range.

 

I mean obviously Rogers paid a ton in order to shut TSN out but I don't think anyone is claiming the Blue Jays should get 500 Million per season but even 40% of that seems fair.

[Abomination]

Well it doesn't really matter what rights it gives because the Blue Jays draw comparable numbers in terms of viewers. HNIC usually is around 2 million (which combines all the games across CBC and SN) and the Sunday night in the 500-700K range.

 

I mean obviously Rogers paid a ton in order to shut TSN out but I don't think anyone is claiming the Blue Jays should get 500 Million per season but even 40% of that seems fair.

 

You misunderstood what I said, but regardless looking into it a little further it seems Rogers in 2015 paid 300M for the NHL rights (it scales), and are believed to have made about 10% on it. (last year was probably worse with no Canadian teams in the playoffs) So 330M over (300?) national games, all star game, postseason games, some rebroadcast games from the States, and NHL Center Ice and Gamecenter Live revenue. Getting the revenue in fewer nights a week should significantly boost advertising rates, as should the tradition of HNIC. Even ignoring that though, and if we assume the hockey games have roughly the same average viewership as the baseball games, knocking off a guess of maybe 30M for NHLCI and Gamecenter, we'd arrive at roughly 1M / game for the actual revenue the Jays broadcasts would have generated last year based on the hockey numbers. Now that doesn't fully factor in the large viewership increase since I think many of the slots are negotiated well in advance, so that's probably a more fair guess for next year than last. Also, broadcasters would expect to make a profit on the broadcasts, so the team wouldn't get 100% of that (maybe 80 to 90%?). With that considered, taking maybe 80% due to pre-negotiation and a generous 90% to the team, we'd arrive at ~$117M for last year.

 

Now that also doesn't factor in Rogers pawning off the French language rights for 65M / year average which I forgot to factor in above, which would reduce that figure another 20% possibly.

 

I think it's reasonable to assume that last year the fair market value of the tv rights was probably a little under 100M.

Edited October 27, 2016 by Abomination

[flafson]

You guys make no sense.

 

If someone told you today that they guarantee you spend 1M in lotto tickets and it will net you in 1.2-1.5M you would jump on it in a heart beat.

 

On the flip side, if you spent $10 on lotto tickets and won 1M and someone told you, you're super rich now, why don't you donate 800K out of that, you would say screw you.

 

Rogers won the lottory, it makes no sense for them to donate their money, all they need to do is find the smallest donation possible to get this team above water.

[RealAccountant]

You guys make no sense.

 

If someone told you today that they guarantee you spend 1M in lotto tickets and it will net you in 1.2-1.5M you would jump on it in a heart beat.

 

On the flip side, if you spent $10 on lotto tickets and won 1M and someone told you, you're super rich now, why don't you donate 800K out of that, you would say screw you.

 

Rogers won the lottory, it makes no sense for them to donate their money, all they need to do is find the smallest donation possible to get this team above water.

 

The value that Rogers has in the Jays which is now closed to a billion can just as easily drop back to 700 Mil with a few losing seasons.

[Maahfaace]

If rogers wasn't so douchebag with continually trying to improve gouging us on tv and phone bills we might not have this endless debate. Hopefully they don't treat Shapiro like they do their millions of customers......

[burlingtonbandit]

You misunderstood what I said, but regardless looking into it a little further it seems Rogers in 2015 paid 300M for the NHL rights (it scales), and are believed to have made about 10% on it. (last year was probably worse with no Canadian teams in the playoffs) So 330M over (300?) national games, all star game, postseason games, some rebroadcast games from the States, and NHL Center Ice and Gamecenter Live revenue. Getting the revenue in fewer nights a week should significantly boost advertising rates, as should the tradition of HNIC. Even ignoring that though, and if we assume the hockey games have roughly the same average viewership as the baseball games, knocking off a guess of maybe 30M for NHLCI and Gamecenter, we'd arrive at roughly 1M / game for the actual revenue the Jays broadcasts would have generated last year based on the hockey numbers. Now that doesn't fully factor in the large viewership increase since I think many of the slots are negotiated well in advance, so that's probably a more fair guess for next year than last. Also, broadcasters would expect to make a profit on the broadcasts, so the team wouldn't get 100% of that (maybe 80 to 90%?). With that considered, taking maybe 80% due to pre-negotiation and a generous 90% to the team, we'd arrive at ~$117M for last year.

 

Now that also doesn't factor in Rogers pawning off the French language rights for 65M / year average which I forgot to factor in above, which would reduce that figure another 20% possibly.

 

I think it's reasonable to assume that last year the fair market value of the tv rights was probably a little under 100M.

 

Where did you get 300 National Games from? There are 2 National time slots on Saturday and Wednesday and 1 on Sunday for 5/week. Even including the playoffs thats a lot less.

 

I mean the Senators received around $30 Million for their regional deal with TSN for 52 games and they get around 200K viewers/game. http://www.silversevensens.com/2014/1/29/5358602/is-the-ottawa-senators-new-tv-deal-the-beginning-of-a-robot-hockey

 

You can't forget the Blue Jays deal gets the postseason as well where they were averaging over 3 Million/game. Add in the fact baseball games are also 30 min longer than a hockey game and I think you could agree under 100 Million is not fair. Especially when we see how much money other regional TV rights go for around sports.

[Abomination]

Where did you get 300 National Games from? There are 2 National time slots on Saturday and Wednesday and 1 on Sunday for 5/week. Even including the playoffs thats a lot less.

 

I mean the Senators received around $30 Million for their regional deal with TSN for 52 games and they get around 200K viewers/game. http://www.silversevensens.com/2014/1/29/5358602/is-the-ottawa-senators-new-tv-deal-the-beginning-of-a-robot-hockey

 

You can't forget the Blue Jays deal gets the postseason as well where they were averaging over 3 Million/game. Add in the fact baseball games are also 30 min longer than a hockey game and I think you could agree under 100 Million is not fair. Especially when we see how much money other regional TV rights go for around sports.

 

I'm basing the 300 off press releases this year. Keep in mind that they usually show multiple national games in the same time slot. Here's the full list (scroll down a little) for this year:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/sportsnet-unveils-national-hnic-broadcast-schedules/

 

By the sounds of that link you gave, it works out to an average of 30M, but it escalates like the NHL deal does (they probably get less right now, maybe 20M ish). Regardless, local advertising rates will usually be higher than national ones in general, because it adds local businesses to the competition for ad slots. For example, a local business in Ottawa doesn't give a rats ass about how many people in other provinces see their ad. They'll only be willing to pay a rate based on their expectation for what it brings them in added business.

 

For your postseason argument, I didn't include it because the NHL one also includes postseason rights (and there's more NHL postseason games given 7 game series and an extra round on top of that). Baseball games being 30 minutes longer doesn't necessarily mean anything, but the number of ad slots and length of the slots can. That's information I don't have, especially for hockey. I suspect that MIGHT favor hockey slightly overall when you factor in the intermissions, but it's probably pretty close.

 

I think the 100M is pretty damn close. This year it would probably increase to maybe 125M or so. Again I'm just talking the approximate likely value that would be paid for the rights on the open market.

[GD]

sign Shawn Tolleson

[wk680]

sign Shawn Tolleson

 

 

Could be a good pick-up if the price is right. Also Greg Holland will be of interest to teams.

 

It would be great if the Jays could identify a struggling starter to convert to a reliever like KC did with Wade Davis. Anyone have any suggestions?

[Grant77]

Could be a good pick-up if the price is right. Also Greg Holland will be of interest to teams.

 

It would be great if the Jays could identify a struggling starter to convert to a reliever like KC did with Wade Davis. Anyone have any suggestions?

 

Clay Buchholz, AJ Griffin

[L54]

Rubby de la Rosa before AZ overhauled their FO.

[jaysblue]

Daniel Hudson could be an interesting target. Struggled as a reliever this season, though still posted solid peripherals. He had a solid 2015 season out of the pen.

[burlingtonbandit]

I'm basing the 300 off press releases this year. Keep in mind that they usually show multiple national games in the same time slot. Here's the full list (scroll down a little) for this year:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/sportsnet-unveils-national-hnic-broadcast-schedules/

 

By the sounds of that link you gave, it works out to an average of 30M, but it escalates like the NHL deal does (they probably get less right now, maybe 20M ish). Regardless, local advertising rates will usually be higher than national ones in general, because it adds local businesses to the competition for ad slots. For example, a local business in Ottawa doesn't give a rats ass about how many people in other provinces see their ad. They'll only be willing to pay a rate based on their expectation for what it brings them in added business.

 

For your postseason argument, I didn't include it because the NHL one also includes postseason rights (and there's more NHL postseason games given 7 game series and an extra round on top of that). Baseball games being 30 minutes longer doesn't necessarily mean anything, but the number of ad slots and length of the slots can. That's information I don't have, especially for hockey. I suspect that MIGHT favor hockey slightly overall when you factor in the intermissions, but it's probably pretty close.

 

I think the 100M is pretty damn close. This year it would probably increase to maybe 125M or so. Again I'm just talking the approximate likely value that would be paid for the rights on the open market.

 

Your right the game time wouldn't matter but rather the commerical time. I think this is where MLB rights would be worth a lot more than NHL since there are only 3 commercials per period in the NHL vs MLB which is after every half inning. A lot of NHL ad time is in intermission when a lot of people either change the channel or go do something else. In terms of total time this site said 42 Min of Ad time for MLB and 30 for NHL.

 

If the rights were on the open market I'd take the over $125 in a heartbeat. I'd have to think TSN and SN push the number over the estimated market value just to get the contract kind of like the NHL. Kind of moot since it won't happen as long as Rogers is owning the team but its fun to dream on.

[SSTP]

Here's a list of all the free agent hitters:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=7476,4082,1887,9015,589,3123,1001238,6387,9892,3411,8722,13110,6878,1572,3708,3371,8392,6885,4251,5677,2151,6310,4191,4062,9571,4881,3255,4952,6104,1873,2154,3376,8267,9848,5227,1191,2234,3353,8027,4556,3448,5223,3086,9205,4467,3057,5450,3179,2918,9957,746,3312,2218,5133,1433,9893,3892,6589,2579,5557,2396,9981,7331,3707,9328,1101,8259,5519,6876,5235,1679,4969,7539,4298,2495,8610&sort

[agrushcow]

Here's a list of all the free agent hitters:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=7476,4082,1887,9015,589,3123,1001238,6387,9892,3411,8722,13110,6878,1572,3708,3371,8392,6885,4251,5677,2151,6310,4191,4062,9571,4881,3255,4952,6104,1873,2154,3376,8267,9848,5227,1191,2234,3353,8027,4556,3448,5223,3086,9205,4467,3057,5450,3179,2918,9957,746,3312,2218,5133,1433,9893,3892,6589,2579,5557,2396,9981,7331,3707,9328,1101,8259,5519,6876,5235,1679,4969,7539,4298,2495,8610&sort

 

What about Cameron Maybin? Former top prospect that might be starting to figure it out. Doesn't help us with the lefty bat issue, but definitely helps team speed and could probably offer plus defense in a corner OF spot.

[Grant77]

Here's a list of all the free agent hitters:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=7476,4082,1887,9015,589,3123,1001238,6387,9892,3411,8722,13110,6878,1572,3708,3371,8392,6885,4251,5677,2151,6310,4191,4062,9571,4881,3255,4952,6104,1873,2154,3376,8267,9848,5227,1191,2234,3353,8027,4556,3448,5223,3086,9205,4467,3057,5450,3179,2918,9957,746,3312,2218,5133,1433,9893,3892,6589,2579,5557,2396,9981,7331,3707,9328,1101,8259,5519,6876,5235,1679,4969,7539,4298,2495,8610&sort

 

I'd be surprised if we didn't make a strong play for Jay Bruce as a free agent or on the trade market.

[BTS]

What about Cameron Maybin? Former top prospect that might be starting to figure it out. Doesn't help us with the lefty bat issue, but definitely helps team speed and could probably offer plus defense in a corner OF spot.

 

Maybin would be nice, but I think Detroit will pick up his $9M option.

[Abomination]

Could be a good pick-up if the price is right. Also Greg Holland will be of interest to teams.

 

It would be great if the Jays could identify a struggling starter to convert to a reliever like KC did with Wade Davis. Anyone have any suggestions?

 

Joe Kelly. I think the Red Sox figured it out at the end of last season though.

[burlingtonbandit]

I'd be surprised if we didn't make a strong play for Jay Bruce as a free agent or on the trade market.

 

It would have to be as a DH. He's worse than Bautista and Saunders in the OF.

[Brownie19]

Sean Rodriguez would be an interesting bench piece. Crushes lefties (151 wRC+ vs. LHP last year) - although last year was the only time in his career he's hit well....did anyone read about some drastic change his in swing or something to justify he spike in his hitting last year? I still hate his K%, but he played all over the diamond last year. Steve Pearce is certainly preferred.

[BTS]

How much is Carlos Santana going to command? I didn't realise he was a pending FA. He's like 2015/2016 Jose Bautista without the wining. He likely gets paid well.

 

Sean Rodriguez would be an interesting bench piece. Crushes lefties (151 wRC+ vs. LHP last year) - although last year was the only time in his career he's hit well. Played all over the diamond though.

 

Cleveland is going to pick up his option, without question.

[glory]

Trade for Dyson, platoon him with Upton. Yeah that's not great offence but overall value would probably be a huge surplus.

[Maine Jays]

Here's a list of all the free agent hitters:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=7476,4082,1887,9015,589,3123,1001238,6387,9892,3411,8722,13110,6878,1572,3708,3371,8392,6885,4251,5677,2151,6310,4191,4062,9571,4881,3255,4952,6104,1873,2154,3376,8267,9848,5227,1191,2234,3353,8027,4556,3448,5223,3086,9205,4467,3057,5450,3179,2918,9957,746,3312,2218,5133,1433,9893,3892,6589,2579,5557,2396,9981,7331,3707,9328,1101,8259,5519,6876,5235,1679,4969,7539,4298,2495,8610&sort

 

Minus a few notable names (EE, Bautista, Cespedes, etc) that list resembles the waiver wire from a yahoo 20 team h2h league

[wk680]

Joe Kelly. I think the Red Sox figured it out at the end of last season though.

 

Yes Kelly has the potential to be a beast out of the pen. That's exactly the kind of guy I was thinking about. His fastball touches 100 mph, but still needs to work on command.

[Slade]

I've heard Kelly wants to stay a starter for some reason and he is still relatively young that he could find a team willing to let him try. If he did agree to stick as a reliever he would be a good sign.

[Caper]

Wilin Rosario for backup catcher? Or do you want all defense for that role.?