Can a Jay win the Cy Young this year?

[baseballsss]

If we go the route of letting Bau, Edwin and saunders walk, should we think about trading Marco and Happ and get a haul?

[CJ-Freeway]

If we go the route of letting Bau, Edwin and saunders walk, should we think about trading Marco and Happ and get a haul?

 

While being the division leaders with a few weeks to go before the playoffs? f*** no.

[Krylian]

f*** all these advanced stat nerds trying not to be homers and take away from Happ's 2016. He leads the league in wins with 16 in 23 starts which means he's kept the team in games, puts up respectable stats in every other category and has been killing it lately.

 

Also this whole poll is flawed because Verlander isn't on it. You'd think a past winner who is leading the league in IP and K is going to get some serious consideration too.

 

How are they trying not to be homers. The fact that Happ is in the conversation for Cy Young means that he's getting credit for having quite the season. Nobody cares about wins for a pitcher. 16 wins is great when you look at them in the context of...that's 16 wins for the Toronto Blue Jays. His other stats are competitive...but has he had the best season for a pitcher in the AL? Maybe not as of today, but again, he's in the discussion so if he can improve upon them just a little, then he may very well be the favourite.

[baseballsss]

While being the division leaders with a few weeks to go before the playoffs? f*** no.

 

You'd be trading them in the offseason

[nmrch]

While being the division leaders with a few weeks to go before the playoffs? f*** no.

 

I think he means in the offseason. And teh answer is no BTW, the Jays under no circumstances will contemplate a rebuild of any kind. People are vastly overestimating the offseason losses, even if they lose all of EE, Bautista, Saunders and Dickey they still have an excellent core to be competitive. The Red Sox will probably be better but the Jays won't be far behind.

[nmrch]

You'd be trading them in the offseason

 

why, you don't like the Jays being competitive in 2017 which they will be even if they lose every single FA?

[Brownie19]

If he pitches like he has over the past 8 games - he's going to run away with the Cy Young award. Massive spike in K's is going to help those counting stats too.

[LGBJ29]

why, you don't like the Jays being competitive in 2017 which they will be even if they lose every single FA?

 

If you can get a return like the one Dickey got you do it every time

[nmrch]

If you can get a return like the one Dickey got you do it every time

 

This isn't fantasy baseball though, no contending team sells players off the big league roster to try and "sell high" and "win" trades, and given the importance of marginal wins trades like that rarely work out.

[Brownie19]

If you can get a return like the one Dickey got you do it every time

 

Except that trade could have been Montero and S.Miller (who were both ranked higher than TDA & Noah) and you'd be kicking yourself.

[LGBJ29]

This isn't fantasy baseball though, no contending team sells players off the big league roster to try and "sell high" and "win" trades, and given the importance of marginal wins trades like that rarely work out.

 

What? In the offseason no team is contending anymore its a clean slate. This roster is aging and about to go through massive turnover. It's not like they will be actively shopping Happ, but IF a team is willing to give up a big time prospect or two, you have to seriously consider that. Pitching can be extremely unpredictable, Happ could pitch to an ERA that matches his xFIP next season.

The pirates are in a playoff race and just sold high on Melancon

[LGBJ29]

Except that trade could have been Montero and S.Miller (who were both ranked higher than TDA & Noah) and you'd be kicking yourself.

 

2 way street. Happ could pitch to 4.80 ERA with matching peripherals next season and you'd be kicking yourself for turning down a top 25 prospect

[nmrch]

What? In the offseason no team is contending anymore its a clean slate. This roster is aging and about to go through massive turnover. It's not like they will be actively shopping Happ, but IF a team is willing to give up a big time prospect or two, you have to seriously consider that. Pitching can be extremely unpredictable, Happ could pitch to an ERA that matches his xFIP next season.

The pirates are in a playoff race and just sold high on Melancon

 

No it isn't, With projections and common sense you'll have a rough estimation of which teams are contenders and which teams are not. The Jays will have the same rotation and an offensive core consisting of Donaldson-Martin-Travis-Pillar-Tulowitzki. That's a contending team with some additions. I'm not sure how that's an aging roster at all, its probably around average. Sanchez is one of the best young pitchers in baseball and Travis is one of the best young position players in baseball, those two alone form a very good "young" core. And the oldest player in that core in Martin who is only 33, which isn't that old at all.

 

I don't subscribe to this obsession some fans have with getting younger. Many a franchise have dreamed on young players delivering and got nothing from them. Having a great farm system is fun because you can dream on them but they're not a substitute for actual wins on the field.

[LGBJ29]

No it isn't, With projections and common sense you'll have a rough estimation of which teams are contenders and which teams are not. The Jays will have the same rotation and an offensive core consisting of Donaldson-Martin-Travis-Pillar-Tulowitzki. That's a contending team with some additions. I'm not sure how that's an aging roster at all, its probably around average. Sanchez is one of the best young pitchers in baseball and Travis is one of the best young position players in baseball, those two alone form a very good "young" core. And the oldest player in that core in Martin who is only 33, which isn't that old at all.

 

I don't subscribe to this obsession some fans have with getting younger. Many a franchise have dreamed on young players delivering and got nothing from them. Having a great farm system is fun because you can dream on them but they're not a substitute for actual wins on the field.

 

Ok first of all, never refer to Pillar as a "core" player offensively. Thats just hilarious.

 

Coming into this season 13 teams in the AL thought they were going to "contend." Tampa and maybe Minnesota were the only teams coming in that never really had a shot. The Padres thought they were contenders last year. The white sox this year. Hell look at the 2013 Jays.

 

There's being good, but every team strives for long term sustainable success. Not just a kick in the bucket 2 year run. The new regime has already talked about having one eye on now and one eye on the future. How the hell can you say you don't subscribe to fans wanting to get younger? You can't compete without having young players on your team making near league minimum. With a team of 25 guys you constantly need young players coming in and contributing in order to fill out a contending roster. Do you not realize how much the guys you mentioned make? Filling out a roster full of vets is too expensive. It's not feasible.

 

For a catcher 33 is absolutely aging. Martin's production (offensively and defensively) has taken a huge dip this season. He isn't cheap either. It's not unreasonable to expect the same thing from Tulo in the coming years.

 

I absolutely agree with you that this team can contend next season even if all our FA's leave, never said they couldn't. Probably the best part of your entire post though, is that the entire core, and every single player that you mentioned for this team to succeed next year, you didn't include Happ.

 

Nobody is saying throw him on the trade block. But if a team is going to be stupid and overpay with promising young players that could help you for the next decade, you do it.

[Jimcanuck]

Every player should be available for the right return. Even Donaldson.

[baseballsss]

Don't get me wrong peeps, Estrada and Happ have been amazing but they will be going on 34 years old. How many years of pitching the way they are do you guys think they have? Obviously prospects don't always turn out and it's a risk to get them but the way their both pitching might not last either.

[Grant77]

Ok first of all, never refer to Pillar as a "core" player offensively. Thats just hilarious.

 

Coming into this season 13 teams in the AL thought they were going to "contend." Tampa and maybe Minnesota were the only teams coming in that never really had a shot. The Padres thought they were contenders last year. The white sox this year. Hell look at the 2013 Jays.

 

There's being good, but every team strives for long term sustainable success. Not just a kick in the bucket 2 year run. The new regime has already talked about having one eye on now and one eye on the future. How the hell can you say you don't subscribe to fans wanting to get younger? You can't compete without having young players on your team making near league minimum. With a team of 25 guys you constantly need young players coming in and contributing in order to fill out a contending roster. Do you not realize how much the guys you mentioned make? Filling out a roster full of vets is too expensive. It's not feasible.

 

For a catcher 33 is absolutely aging. Martin's production (offensively and defensively) has taken a huge dip this season. He isn't cheap either. It's not unreasonable to expect the same thing from Tulo in the coming years.

 

I absolutely agree with you that this team can contend next season even if all our FA's leave, never said they couldn't. Probably the best part of your entire post though, is that the entire core, and every single player that you mentioned for this team to succeed next year, you didn't include Happ.

 

Nobody is saying throw him on the trade block. But if a team is going to be stupid and overpay with promising young players that could help you for the next decade, you do it.

 

How high does your WAR have to be to qualify as a core player? More than 4?

[nmrch]

Ok first of all, never refer to Pillar as a "core" player offensively. Thats just hilarious.

 

When i use the term "offence" that's intended to refer to position players, you would agree that Pillar is a core position player on this team right? Infact after Donaldson, Travis, and Sanchez(and maybe Stroman), he's probably the most valuable piece for the organization moving forward

Coming into this season 13 teams in the AL thought they were going to "contend." Tampa and maybe Minnesota were the only teams coming in that never really had a shot. The Padres thought they were contenders last year. The white sox this year. Hell look at the 2013 Jays.

 

I think there's a difference between marginal contenders for one of the WC's and a legitimate division contender. I think the Jays in 2017 belong in the latter category. Those kinds of teams should not be looking to gamble away current talent unless something extraordinary comes along. When you're at that level marginal wins are more valuable to you then they would be to a 75 win team. And no one is giving you that kind of talent for guys like Happ and Estrada.

 

 

I absolutely agree with you that this team can contend next season even if all our FA's leave, never said they couldn't. Probably the best part of your entire post though, is that the entire core, and every single player that you mentioned for this team to succeed next year, you didn't include Happ.

 

Nobody is saying throw him on the trade block. But if a team is going to be stupid and overpay with promising young players that could help you for the next decade, you do it.

I did include Happ when i said we would have teh same rotation next year, he's expected to be a key contributor next year too, how is that debatable. And i agree with you that we should be listening to offers on everyone, that's pretty obvious but i disagree that we should be actively shopping players on teh big league rosters in the hopes of "getting younger" and trying to win trades.

[LGBJ29]

When i use the term "offence" that's intended to refer to position players, you would agree that Pillar is a core position player on this team right? Infact after Donaldson, Travis, and Sanchez(and maybe Stroman), he's probably the most valuable piece for the organization moving forward

 

 

I think there's a difference between marginal contenders for one of the WC's and a legitimate division contender. I think the Jays in 2017 belong in the latter category. Those kinds of teams should not be looking to gamble away current talent unless something extraordinary comes along. When you're at that level marginal wins are more valuable to you then they would be to a 75 win team. And no one is giving you that kind of talent for guys like Happ and Estrada.

 

 

 

I did include Happ when i said we would have teh same rotation next year, he's expected to be a key contributor next year too, how is that debatable. And i agree with you that we should be listening to offers on everyone, that's pretty obvious but i disagree that we should be actively shopping players on teh big league rosters in the hopes of "getting younger" and trying to win trades.

 

Thats what this whole thing was about, a player returning an overpayment (i.e. being available for the right price) you basically just confirmed my entire argument with the bolded. I've said 2 times, in 2 different posts that this is, in fact, not about them actively shopping Happ whatsoever, so I'm not sure why you would say that.

 

 

As for Pillar, the only value he has is defence, position players play on both sides of the ball so thats where the confusion came from. I agree he's a valuable player, however getting into his late 20's his speed is going to start to decline, and the defence will follow. I think he's got a few good years left in him, but once again for the right price I think he's pretty expendable.

[Jonn]

Devaugn Travis

[LGBJ29]

How high does your WAR have to be to qualify as a core player? More than 4?

 

italicize offensively

[Jimcanuck]

Eckersley in 1990 was pretty great too.

 

But I'm still a fan of Mark Eichhorn's in 1986. (7.4 WAR)

 

Where do you get 7.4 from, fangraphs has 4.9?

[G-Snarls]

First 17 game winnah

[Jonn]

First 17 game winnah

 

Wins are real though he actually deserves them. I'm happy for the guy honestly. Hes been way more than we could have ever expected.

[G-Snarls]

Tigers vs Buccholz tomorrow

 

YES

[Spanky99]

Tigers vs Buccholz tomorrow

 

YES

 

Eazzzzy...

[Terminator]

Where do you get 7.4 from, fangraphs has 4.9?

 

Lol he pitched in 69 games that year and threw 157 innings. That's basically the equivalent of throwing 2 innings every other game.

[L54]

M's announcers creaming themselves over JA Happ.

[Jonn]

Tigers vs Buccholz tomorrow

 

YES

 

Unfortunately the Red Sox are facing Boyd. And the Tigers offense has went quiet. Health concerns. In a slug fest I would favour the Red Sox. Even with Clay on the mound.

[Jimcanuck]

Lol he pitched in 69 games that year and threw 157 innings. That's basically the equivalent of throwing 2 innings every other game.

 

Yes, but again, where does Krylian get 7.4 WAR from?