Can a Jay win the Cy Young this year?

[The Cats Ass]

Who should have won over Kuechel?

 

Price or Sale

[Dr. Dinger]

It's sort of a weak/muddled field this year in the AL. I think Kluber will take it.

[G-Snarls]

He's not even the best reliever in the AL. Betences is having a great year but dem savez

 

Bettances FIP 1.25 is amazing

 

I didn't realize how much Bettances and Britton are on opposite sides of the ERA/FIP scale.

 

Though I suspect writers have a hard time ignoring Britton's 0.57 ERA and the saves, as you note...

[G-Snarls]

Bettances ERA: 2.32 FIP: 1.25

Britton ERA: 0.57 FIP 1.91

[Dr. Dinger]

Any reliever winning would be really gross IMO.

[G-Snarls]

Any reliever winning would be really gross IMO.

 

How many Cy Youngs did Mariano Rivera win?

 

Edit: I am not REMOTELY suggesting Britton is in the same echelon

 

Edit: Zero. Rivera was top 5 in 5 seasons but never won. (had to look it up)

[jays4life19]

Anyone know the preseason odds of JA Happ winning the Cy Young?

[pickoff22]

Anyone know the preseason odds of JA Happ winning the Cy Young?

 

Would have been listed as "the field" or "other", I doubt any sportsbook had his name listed.

[jays4life19]

Would have been listed as "the field" or "other", I doubt any sportsbook had his name listed.

 

I'll find out when I'm home from work.

[burlingtonbandit]

Won't even reach 100 + K's this season, so I don't see how he is even considered.

 

His flyball rate is 7.8% so you don't really need that many strikeouts. His strikeout rate is still over 30% though. If you set the record for lowest ERA ever I think that automatically will get you consideration.

[Governator]

I'd go with Kluber, most WAR and also sports a >9K/9 which is a requirement in my book. Would never vote for any reliever, regardless of their stats unless the entire league's starting pitchers were knuckleballers.

[burlingtonbandit]

It's sort of a weak/muddled field this year in the AL. I think Kluber will take it.

 

Doubt it. His ERA is always higher than his FIP because he's much worse pitching out of the stretch. Tied for 21st in RA9-WAR.

[Governator]

Doubt it. His ERA is always higher than his FIP because he's much worse pitching out of the stretch. Tied for 21st in RA9-WAR.

 

Do you think voters will care about RA9-WAR?

[burlingtonbandit]

Do you think voters will care about RA9-WAR?

 

Yeah much more than FIP. Kluber has the 8th best ERA in the AL among SP.

[Melvin]

I'd go with Kluber, most WAR and also sports a >9K/9 which is a requirement in my book. Would never vote for any reliever, regardless of their stats unless the entire league's starting pitchers were knuckleballers.

 

So Doc didn't deserve his Cy's?

[BTS]

What a weird year. That's a lot of low ERAs with high xFIPs. I think I'd vote for Kluber if I had one. I could also be persuaded to vote for Britton.

[burlingtonbandit]

Bet no one could guess the top 5 starters in xFIP in the AL if they had to guess without looking.

 

 

1. Pineda

2. Price

3. Kluber

4. Stroman

5. Archer

[Melvin]

Bet no one could guess the top 5 starters in xFIP in the AL if they had to guess without looking.

 

 

1. Pineda

2. Price

3. Kluber

4. Stroman

5. Archer

 

Yeah that would be a tough guess. Really interesting though.

[BTS]

Bet no one could guess the top 5 starters in xFIP in the AL if they had to guess without looking.

 

 

1. Pineda

2. Price

3. Kluber

4. Stroman

5. Archer

 

The year xFIP lied.

[Dr. Dinger]

[TABLE=class: tablehead, width: 756]

[TR=class: stathead]

[TD=colspan: 14]2016 Cy Young Predictor - AL[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: colhead]

[TD=align: left]RK[/TD]

[TD=align: left]PLAYER[/TD]

[TD=align: left]TEAM[/TD]

[TD=align: right]CYP[/TD]

[TD=align: right]G[/TD]

[TD=align: right]GS[/TD]

[TD=align: right]IP[/TD]

[TD=align: right]ER[/TD]

[TD=align: right]K[/TD]

[TD=align: right]SV[/TD]

[TD=align: right]SHO[/TD]

[TD=align: right]W-L[/TD]

[TD=align: right]ERA[/TD]

[TD=align: right]VB[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: oddrow player-10-28817]

[TD]1[/TD]

[TD]J.A. Happ[/TD]

[TD]TOR[/TD]

[TD=class: sortcell, bgcolor: #DDDDDD !important, align: right]144.8[/TD]

[TD=align: right]23[/TD]

[TD=align: right]23[/TD]

[TD=align: right]143.0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]47[/TD]

[TD=align: right]124[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]16-3[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2.96[/TD]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: evenrow player-10-6216]

[TD]2[/TD]

[TD]Cole Hamels[/TD]

[TD]TEX[/TD]

[TD=class: sortcell, align: right]124.3[/TD]

[TD=align: right]23[/TD]

[TD=align: right]23[/TD]

[TD=align: right]146.1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]47[/TD]

[TD=align: right]144[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]12-3[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2.89[/TD]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: oddrow player-10-31054]

[TD]3[/TD]

[TD]Zach Britton[/TD]

[TD]BAL[/TD]

[TD=class: sortcell, bgcolor: #DDDDDD !important, align: right]122.8[/TD]

[TD=align: right]49[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]47.0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3[/TD]

[TD=align: right]56[/TD]

[TD=align: right]34[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2-1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.57[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: evenrow player-10-29966]

[TD]4[/TD]

[TD]Rick Porcello[/TD]

[TD]BOS[/TD]

[TD=class: sortcell, align: right]121.3[/TD]

[TD=align: right]23[/TD]

[TD=align: right]23[/TD]

[TD=align: right]151.0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]57[/TD]

[TD=align: right]125[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]15-3[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.40[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: oddrow player-10-30948]

[TD]5[/TD]

[TD]Chris Sale[/TD]

[TD]CHW[/TD]

[TD=class: sortcell, bgcolor: #DDDDDD !important, align: right]119.1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]22[/TD]

[TD=align: right]22[/TD]

[TD=align: right]154.0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]54[/TD]

[TD=align: right]150[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]14-5[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.16[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: evenrow player-10-31254]

[TD]6[/TD]

[TD]Aaron Sanchez[/TD]

[TD]TOR[/TD]

[TD=class: sortcell, align: right]118.8[/TD]

[TD=align: right]22[/TD]

[TD=align: right]22[/TD]

[TD=align: right]145.1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]46[/TD]

[TD=align: right]121[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]11-2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2.85[/TD]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: oddrow player-10-32587]

[TD]7[/TD]

[TD]Steven Wright[/TD]

[TD]BOS[/TD]

[TD=class: sortcell, bgcolor: #DDDDDD !important, align: right]111.7[/TD]

[TD=align: right]22[/TD]

[TD=align: right]22[/TD]

[TD=align: right]146.2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]49[/TD]

[TD=align: right]123[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]13-5[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.01[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: evenrow player-10-30285]

[TD]8[/TD]

[TD]Chris Tillman[/TD]

[TD]BAL[/TD]

[TD=class: sortcell, align: right]110.2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]24[/TD]

[TD=align: right]24[/TD]

[TD=align: right]144.0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]56[/TD]

[TD=align: right]122[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]14-4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.50[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: oddrow player-10-30981]

[TD]9[/TD]

[TD]Corey Kluber[/TD]

[TD]CLE[/TD]

[TD=class: sortcell, bgcolor: #DDDDDD !important, align: right]107.6[/TD]

[TD=align: right]22[/TD]

[TD=align: right]22[/TD]

[TD=align: right]151.0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]53[/TD]

[TD=align: right]153[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]11-8[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.16[/TD]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: evenrow player-10-32693]

[TD]10[/TD]

[TD]Roberto Osuna[/TD]

[TD]TOR[/TD]

[TD=class: sortcell, align: right]107.3[/TD]

[TD=align: right]51[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]51.1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]11[/TD]

[TD=align: right]63[/TD]

[TD=align: right]25[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2-1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.93[/TD]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[KingKat]

The year xFIP lied.

 

Wasn't it established like 2-3 years ago that xFIP was actually worse than FIP?

[Governator]

So Doc didn't deserve his Cy's?

 

Well.. Pedro was the better pitcher in 2003, a strikeout artist with better results but if you consider Roy's ridiculous workload to get there it's justifiable.

[Dr. Dinger]

The year xFIP lied.

 

xFIP pretty much just creams itself for high K guys while completely forgiving their HR and BABIP transgressions as bad luck and park factors. I think more and more we're starting to see with Statcast metrics like spin rate that BABIP outliers like Estrada and Pineda maybe have a lot more to do with their BABIPs (good or bad) than we thought even 2 or 3 years ago. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying extreme BABIPs won't regress over time, just that pitchers have more influence over them than we thought.

[BTS]

xFIP pretty much just creams itself for high K guys while completely forgiving their HR and BABIP transgressions as bad luck and park factors. I think more and more we're starting to see with Statcast metrics like spin rate that BABIP outliers like Estrada and Pineda maybe have a lot more to do with their BABIPs (good or bad) than we thought even 2 or 3 years ago. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying extreme BABIPs won't regress over time, just that pitchers have more influence over them than we thought.

 

Yeah, we've definitely been pulled back from the days of thinking pitchers only control BB, K, and HR rates. But it seems like there are more ERA-DIPS outliers this year than I ever remember there being before.

[G-Snarls]

Wasn't it established like 2-3 years ago that xFIP was actually worse than FIP?

 

I have a hard time assuming every pitcher allows the same % of HR per fly ball.

[KingKat]

I have a hard time assuming every pitcher allows the same % of HR per fly ball.

 

That's a fair assumption but whatever xFIP is doing to adjust for that doesn't seems to be working and instead seems to be steering people even further from the truth. I'll see if I can dig up the article I'm thinking of. It was very interesting and I'm surprised it didn't gain more traction.

[Boxcar]

If Happ wins 20, I think he's a lock but if he doesn't, Britton will win it. Britton's season is probably the best by a reliever ever atm (Not that I think wins should really matter but that's how they vote sometimes)

 

What? Andrew Miller is having a better season just this year.

[Smoak Is Awful]

I still feel Sanchez is the best pitcher on this team, and he has the potential to continue to lower his ERA. The KC game was a fluke, and they got a bunch of very lucky, soft hits off him. Happ and Sanchez could easily win, a damn shame about Estrada's back injury.

[G-Snarls]

What? Andrew Miller is having a better season just this year.

 

Hmmmm, this made me look them up to compare

 

Miller has better K and BB rates

 

What is Britton doing to keep his ERA and FIP so low??? Because both are lower than Miller's

[Krylian]

Happ can certainly win...but there's so much season left anything can happen. Britton might be the favourite as it stands today...and I hate seeing a reliever win it.